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Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead.
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- 2539 - Weekend Edition: Going Private
Friday 22nd November 2024
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The private credit market is growing in volume with no signs of abating. Brad Calleja, Executive Corporate Finance at NAB, says its difficult to put a precise figure on the size of the space because not all deals are visible, but it’s estimated globally at between $2 and $3 trillion. So, what is it and why is it growing so quickly? Brad explains that it is providing a vehicle for institutional funds, such as super funds, to achieve higher returns from higher risk, longer duration investments that sit outside the risk profiles of most banks. If that’s the case, what’s the role of a bank like NAB in private credit markets? Listen in to understand more.
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Fri, 22 Nov 2024 - 22min - 2538 - We want more
Friday 22nd November 2024
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Are NVIDIA investors a bit like Oliver Twist? They want more. That’s the take of NAB’s Skye Masters, who joins Phil on the Morning Call. The data was all second tier and none of it changed market expectations around the Fed’s path of rate cuts. US jobless claims were down, but continued claims were up, suggesting employers are letting less people go, but at the same time are not recruiting more. Positive news on housing, which can be choppy, was offset by gloomy news in the Philly Fed manufacturing outlook. So, it was a mixed picture overnight. The upshot, we need more solid data to get a clearer picture. Meanwhile, in the uncertainty, Bitcoin careers closer to the $100k mark. And will the promise of Roast Turkey drive up shares next week- which often happens on Thanksgiving week.
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Thu, 21 Nov 2024 - 16min - 2537 - Spitting chips
Thursday 21st November 2024
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There’s no been much in the way of data to give markets any direction. Ahead of the NVIDIA results equities were trading lower, with the US dollar up slightly, and no big moves in oil. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland why there wasn’t more of aa reaction to events in Eastern Europe, with Ukraine firing US and UK supplied missiles into Russian territory, and the US, Italy, Spain and Greece temporarily closing their embassies in Kyiv, fearing an imminent attack. Meanwhile, UK inflation was a little higher than expected, reducing further the chance of a pre-Christmas cut from the Bank of England. There’s also been a claim that labour data in the UK has significantly overestimated unemployment. Today, Europe’s consumer confidence numbers, US existing home sales and initial jobless claims, as well as the Philly Fed business outlook. And the RBA’s Michelle Bullock is talking at 7 tonight in Sydney at the Women in Payments Conference.
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Wed, 20 Nov 2024 - 16min - 2536 - Markets nervous as Russia drops the N word (again)
Wednesday 20th November 2024
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There as a certain amount of nervousness as Ukraine fired into Russian territory overnight and Russia revised its so-called Nuclear Doctrine, which lowers the requirements for a nuclear strike on a foreign power. But NAB’s Ray Attrill says the risk sentiment was short-lived, and markets are now focusing back on earnings results (NVIDIA tomorrow) and central bank expectations. The latter have been influenced a little by Canada’s strong CPI numbers, a lot of words from the Bank of England, the latest RBA minutes and, to come today, negotiated wages for the Eurozone.
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Tue, 19 Nov 2024 - 16min - 2535 - Firing over the line
Tuesday 19th November 2024
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Oil increased in price today. At first glance you might assume this was a response to the news that President Biden has authorised the use of US weapons to be fired by Ukraine into Russian territory. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says prices really rose in response to the news that the CEO of Liberty Energy - a company focused on fossil fuels - has been nominated as head of the Energy Department. Curious that the prospect of more oil wouldn’t bring prices down. Rodrigo also talks to Phil about European trade and wages data, NZ PSI and PPI numbers from yesterday, US housing and Canadian inflation. And self-drive cars, maybe a step closer.
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Mon, 18 Nov 2024 - 16min - 2534 - Powell the Grinch?
Monday 18th November 2024
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Just after Friday’s podcast Jerome Powell said the Fed was in no hurry to cut rates, raising doubts as to whether a cut in December was going to happen. Market pricing fell, to the point where it’s now closer to a 50:50 chance. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through what was said, and the mixed US data from Friday, that included strong retail sales and an (unbelievably) strong increase in manufacturing in the NY Fed survey. China’s data on Friday also gave some hope. This week, Taylor suggests, markets will have more words from central bank speakers and the like, rather than hard numbers to go on. It’s going to be one of those weeks.
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Sun, 17 Nov 2024 - 17min - 2533 - Weekend Edition: A new world reorder, with FT’s Martin Wolf
Friday 15th November 2024
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How different will the world be after another term of Trump as US President? Will he grow the size of the US economy, or will his policies simply add to domestic inflation, meaning higher interest rates for longer. Will he start a global trade war, forcing companies to replicate their production facilities in each local market?
Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times in London. He is not optimistic about the prospects for the world economy. Phil talks to him about the ramifications for regions like Europe and China, where growth prospects are already uncertain. How do they adapt to working with, or without, Fortress America?
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Fri, 15 Nov 2024 - 37min - 2532 - Wait a little longer
Friday 15th November 2024
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Australian unemployment numbers just don’t want to move. JBWere’s Sally Auld explains why NAB now expects a cut from the RBA to be delayed beyond the first quarter of 2025 and might not even happen next year at all. It’ll be interesting to hear the spin from Fed speakers in the US now, after lower-than-expected job claims and a higher than anticipated PPI. After a December cut could the resilience in the economy coupled with Trump policies, delay any further cuts. Plus a preview of our Weekend Edition with FT’s Martin Wolf.
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Thu, 14 Nov 2024 - 15min - 2531 - Inflation in no hurry to come down, and neither is the US dollar
Thursday 14th November 2024
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The US dollar continues to push higher, with the AUD one of the main casualties. The PBoC is also clearly concerned about the weakness on the CNY. It’s not just the dollar that is staying high - US inflation is taking a while to come down. The CPI number overnight was as expected, though markets seem to be reacting as though they are relieved it wasn’t higher. As a result, pricing for a December rate cut increased slightly. Locally, the Australian Wage price Index slowed a little more than expected, but not enough of a move to change the timing for the RBA. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss all this, plus all the rest of today’s market news.
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Wed, 13 Nov 2024 - 16min - 2530 - A brighter future for optimists
Wednesday 13th November 2024
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US markets continue to embrace the optimism of a pro-growth Trump presidency, even as equities back off their highs a little in this session. The US dollar, meanwhile, continues to strengthen and the latest Bank of America Global Fund Managers Survey shows investors exposure to equities has hit the highest level since 2013. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil today to talk through the latest US market action, as well as yesterday’s NAB Business Survey and Westpac Consumer Confidence Survey, both of which showed an uptick in sentiment. Today’s big number is US CPI, but can it really give us an idea of the direction of travel when so much depends on Trump’s policies early next year?
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Tue, 12 Nov 2024 - 16min - 2529 - Pricing for Trump. But is it rational?
Tuesday 12th November 2024
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The US dollar continues to rise, mid-cap equities are doing well, Bitcoin is pushing higher, so are Tesla shares. With little in the way of new data releases, and the US bond market closed for Veterans Day, most market moves relate to expectations on what Trump might do in his second Presidency. Phil asks if the moves are rational. It’s too early to be rational, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, but NAB has issued new FX forecasts based on the assumption that the new administration will quickly push ahead with its tariff promises. That means the Aussie dollar won’t reach 70 us cents next year, not helped by the deepening weakness in the Chinese economy.
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Mon, 11 Nov 2024 - 18min - 2528 - The Morning After the Week Before
Monday11th November 2024
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Markets might be waiting for signs of the speed and magnitude of Trump’s expected import tariffs, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says businesses are already indicating their response - building up inventories in the US whilst they determine as they consider whether to move more production to the US. China’s stimulus underwhelmed on Friday, focusing on reducing local government debt rather than provided direct stimulus to businesses and consumers. It’s a busy week for Australian data, with labour market numbers out on Thursday and the wage price index for Q3 on Wednesday, plus the NAB Business Survey tomorrow.
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Sun, 10 Nov 2024 - 15min - 2527 - Weekend Edition: Are we moving fast enough to tackle Australia’s housing crisis?
Friday 8th November 2024
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Australia faces a rising tide of homelessness as rents push higher, out of the reach of many lower income earners. According to Rebecca Pinkstone, chief executive of Homes NSW, in her state alone there are 57,000 people on the register, looking for a home. Rents in Sydney and surrounds are often considerably more than a state pension. Supply is a big part of the problem, with developers reluctant to commit to the growth required because they face rising material costs and skills shortages. Subsidising existing rental simply maintains the elevated prices for properties. And, as Phil points out, it’s not just low income earners hit by the housing crisis. Household sizes in Australia are well above those of comparable economies, as children wait longer to move out. Phil asks, is it just about supply? Or is it time to address the government policies that have elevated prices for decades?
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Fri, 08 Nov 2024 - 27min - 2526 - Too slow for Trump?
Friday 8th November 2024
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The Fed cut rates as expected today by 25bp, after the big 50bp cut last time. But there’s one more meeting scheduled before Christmas and JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are evenly split as to whether that’ll mean another cut this year. The message from the Fed today was that the risks are balanced when it comes to achieving their employment and inflation goals, but what about the elephant in the room? Will Trump’s agenda drive inflation higher and delay the speed of cuts. That seems to be happening in the UK, where the Bank of England cut rates as expected, but the impact of the budget could delay further cuts. One more this year seems unlikely. Today’s big news is likely to be the announcement on fiscal stimulus from China’s National People‘s Congress, most likely before the Sydney close says Sally.
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Thu, 07 Nov 2024 - 17min - 2525 - Them and the rest of us
Thursday 7th November 2024
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There is a Trump trade after all, and we just saw it. The US dollar rising, bond yields in the US pushing higher, US equities higher at the expense of equity markets elsewhere. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the market response to the US Presidential election news. They discuss how it’s hit Europe and how it could prompt a domestic focus on China’s stimulus, which is expected to be announced on Friday. Meanwhile, will the news have any impact on the Fed and Bank of England, both meeting in the next 24 hours. Not this time round says Gavin, but there’s no doubt Trump’s promise of further tax cuts could have an impact on the terminal rate in the US.
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Wed, 06 Nov 2024 - 16min - 2524 - Long time coming
Wednesday 6th November 2024
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Polls start closing in the next few hours. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says Virginia, which closes late morning Australia time, was called by Associated Press within 36 minutes last time. So, we could start to get a picture of how each candidate is faring by lunchtime today, even if the final outcome could take time – possibly weeks. Something else that could take longer than originally envisaged, a cut by the RBA. Australia’s approach with shallower hikes means there’s less rush to cut rates and February is looking a little less likely. Taylor talks through the points from yesterday’s RBA meeting. Plus, why today is an important one for New Zealand.
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Tue, 05 Nov 2024 - 14min - 2523 - Wafer thin difference
Tuesday 5th November 2024
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Markets have responded to a poll over the weekend which showed a swing in favour of Kamala Harris in Iowa. It was driven, apparently, by more older women expressing a preference. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Iowa isn’t normally considered a swing state, so there is the question about whether this could be replicated across the country. But we haven’t seen a massive unwinding of positions that you might associate with the Trump trade.
The RBA meets today and there will be a lot of focus on what’s in and out of the statement, and whether there’s a more concerted effort to drive market expectations further back into mid-2025.
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Mon, 04 Nov 2024 - 16min - 2522 - Jobs take back seat as election drives the markets
Monday 4th November 2024
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Mid-morning Wednesday Australia time the polls close in the US and soon after, hopefully, the world will know the choice made from two very different political and economic agendas. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this uncertainty is showing through in the data. It’s been blamed for the fall in the US manufacturing index on Friday, for example. It perhaps also explains why there was a limited response to Friday’s non-farm payrolls data, which showed an unexpected contraction in employment growth. Also today, is NVIDIA about to overtake Apple as the highest valued company on the planet?
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Sun, 03 Nov 2024 - 13min - 2521 - Weekend Edition: Has affordability finally hit home price growth?
Friday 1st November 2024
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Australian house prices have defied logic. Core Logic’s Eliza Owen says when interest rates rise you should see asset prices come down. In theory. Yet the last rate rise, in November last year, coincided with a fresh record high in home values. Now homes in NSW have increased in value for 20 consecutive months. Until now. Today’s data, for October, shows the growth streak in Sydney has been broken. Eliza joins Phil to break down the detail on trends in home prices across the country.
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Fri, 01 Nov 2024 - 26min - 2520 - US shares weaker on tech forecasts. UK markets judge budget.
Friday 1st November 2024
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Some big market moves overnight, with sharp falls in US equities. Markets are clearly not impressed with the forecasts that came with the strong earnings results this week. In the UK bond yields are markedly higher, particularly at the front end. NAB’s Skye Masters says there are concerns that the extra spending could boost inflation. The focus now is on tonight’s US jobs data, before a week that includes THAT election.
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Thu, 31 Oct 2024 - 17min - 2519 - Happy Hawkish Halloween
Thursday 31st October 2024
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There were a few reasons for central banks to be cautious about the speed of the cuts to interest rates. Europe is growing a little faster than expected, whilst German inflation kicked back up a little. Whilst US GDP is weaker it is being held up by strong levels of consumption. Australia’s CPI didn’t surprise, so there’s no reason for the FRBA to change the expected path of rate cuts. And the UK Chancellor announced a budget high on tax hikes, but also higher on borrowing. What impact will that have on the Bank of England? NAB’s Gavin Friend interprets a day rich on data - not forgetting the latest tech earnings - which much more to come.
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Wed, 30 Oct 2024 - 17min - 2518 - Jobs, growth, inflation and tech earnings.
Wednesday 30th October 2024
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Something for everyone today. On the jobs front US openings are down, whilst unemployment in Japan fell. On growth we have the US GDP number today, after the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now forecast for Q3 was revised down. Europe’s GDP numbers are released today along with CPI for various European countries, and for the Eurozone as a whole, today and tomorrow. More significantly, Australia’s quarterly CPI read is released this morning. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether it’ll have much impact on the timing of cuts from the RBA. Then there’s the tech earnings - Alphabet today, Meta and Microsoft tomorrow, Apple the day after.
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Tue, 29 Oct 2024 - 15min - 2517 - Meta Search, Oil Drops, Rising Yields and Kamala’s Last Stand
Tuesday 29th October 2024
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As suggested yesterday oil prices fell sharply in this session as markets breathed a collective sigh of relief that the Middle East war didn’t escalate further after the Israeli attack on Iran. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to explain the continued rise in bond yields. Could a fear of inflation reigniting under a Trump presidency be part of the pricing? Kamala Harris makes her last major speech in Washington tonight, one week out from the election. We are a day away from Alphabet’s earnings results, but there are reports that Meta might be launching its own AI search engine, to reduce its reliance on Google and Bing, although no spike in Meta shares on the rumours.
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Mon, 28 Oct 2024 - 12min - 2516 - A big week for data and tech earnings
Monday 28th October 2024
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After that leap in margins for Tesla last week, all eyes will be on a plethora of big-tech earnings this week. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it could be a volatile week, with the VIX index pushing over 20 on Friday. It’s been a busy weekend with the Japanese election unlikely to bring an outright majority. What does that mean for the BoJ? China released data showing even more of an economic slowdown, along with dates for the National People’s Congress which could ratify a rescue plan. This week there’s a lot of data to come, including US AND European Q3 GDP and US payrolls at the end of the week. Locally, all eyes will be on Australian inflation data middle of the week.
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Sun, 27 Oct 2024 - 15min - 2515 - Weekend Edition: Harris or Trump. Who wins. What changes?
Friday 18th October 2024
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They are neck and neck in the polls, so the US election could go either way, although markets are responding, to an extent, to betting odds which are showing Trump is the clear winner. The ABC’s John Barron reckons you have to be careful about betting odds. They often represent wishes rather than rational decisions. And polling data also has its weaknesses, as research companies struggle to find representative respondents. So, who will win and what changes if its Trump? Would he really push on with 20 percent tariffs on all US imports and the deportation of millions of undocumented migrants? John knows US politics well. He co-hosts the ABC’s Americast, and has written several books on the subject, including a history of US political campaigns called ‘Vote For me’ . On today’s Weekend edition he joins Phil to provide interesting insights into a man who is more bent on power than policy.
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Fri, 25 Oct 2024 - 37min - 2514 - Life in the Slow Lane
Friday 25th October 2024
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There have been small moves up and down in the latest PMIs. Germany saw a slight rise in services and manufacturing, but the Europe wide services number fell slightly. And the UK’s star has dimmed a little, as its manufacturing fell quite sharply, alongside a drop in the services number. Catherine Mann from the BoE gave a clear indication she won’t be voting for a cut in a hurry, and RBNZ’s Governor Orr tried hard to talk down the case for further big cuts. Could 50bp be off the table? And Donald Trump pushes ahead in the latest WSJ poll. Listen to our Weekend Edition for more on what a Trump presidency could look like.
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Thu, 24 Oct 2024 - 15min - 2513 - Canada cuts. ECB sends mixed messages.
Thursday 24th October 2024
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It’s been another session of a rising US dollar, yields climbing a little and falling equities. Nab’S Ken Crompton says there have been some weak earnings results that are adding to cautions in the share market. The Bank of Canada cut rates by 50bp, as expected, hence there wasn’t a great deal of market reaction. The question is, will the ECB follow suit? They are below their inflation target, but Christine Lagarde tried to set a note of caution to the markets during her talk in Washington. Global PMIs are out today, but no big changes are expected.
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Wed, 23 Oct 2024 - 12min - 2512 - All quiet, before the storm
Wednesday 23rd October 2024
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What do markets do when there’s no big data releases and a slump in earnings results of interest? Not much is the answer. Phil talks to JBWere’s Sally Auld about another quiet session, with markets clearly hesitant about the US election, the pace of Fed easing and the price of equities. The steepening of the yield curve could be a reflection of an expected Trump victory. They also discuss the revisions in the latest IMF World Economic Outlook, which has basically upped US growth a little at the expense of just about everybody else. But they note, the risk is to the downside.
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Tue, 22 Oct 2024 - 13min - 2511 - Not sure where to go
Tuesday 22nd October 2024
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Some curious market moves this season with very little around in terms of data. So, with no hard facts to drive he agenda, what’s going on? Phil asks whether, as the election in the US draws nearer, whether we are seeing more indications of a developing Trump trade. It’s not obvious, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, with equities taking a hit, in particular financials and health, that are normal participants in the trump trade. Gold is pushing ever higher though, presumably a sign of nervousness ahead of the big day. Phil and Ray also talk about Andrew Hauser’s comments about RBA cuts yesterday and look ahead to another quiet day today.
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Mon, 21 Oct 2024 - 11min - 2510 - Fine China. Handle with Care.
Monday 21st October 2024
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China’s CSI300 rose sharply on Friday. There was some positive data released, although in general the picture shows an economy that is slowing, held back by falling house prices. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the interest in shares on Friday was driven by policies aimed at share buybacks. Japan’s inflation provided more ammunition for hikes, eventually, whilst UK retail sales provided another reason for the Bank of England to avoid rushing into cuts. This week the Bank of Canada will announce its next rate cut, and the RBA’s Andrew Hauser gives a fireside chat where he will no doubt reiterate that they too see no need to rush into cuts.
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Sun, 20 Oct 2024 - 14min - 2509 - Weekend Edition: The asymmetric battle
Friday 18th October 2024
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NAB is in the thick of it, along with the rest of corporate Australia, and the government, fighting cyber-crime. This month is cyber-crime month and the message for consumers is clear - keep devices and software up to date, use strong and unique passwords and recognise and report phishing.
Meanwhile, what’s being done behind the scenes to beat the criminals? Chris Sheehan, General Manager for NAB group investigations, says it’s an asymmetrical battle. That doesn’t mean NAB is losing, just that there must be constant awareness of what’s coming next. Does that mean teams of NAB people are lurking in the dark web, posing as wrongdoers? And what’s the risk that, despite all best efforts, the cyber criminals win and the whole system comes crashing down?
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Fri, 18 Oct 2024 - 26min - 2508 - ECB cuts rates, more to come soon?
Friday18th October 2024
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The ECB has cut rates with Christine Lagarde saying the disinflationary process is on track. NAB’s Gavin Friend says since the last meeting inflation has come down, and lower growth will be giving the bank confidence that it will continue in that direction. Nonetheless, base effects might see a temporary rise in core and headline rates that make it difficult to signal back-to-back cuts, even though the weakness in the economy could well demand it. Meanwhile strong jobs data In Australia should be the final nail for those looking for another RBA cut this year. Similarly, strong retail sales growth in the USA demonstrates a resilient economy that can survive without rapid rate cuts. On that basis could we see the Fed move just once before Christmas?
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Thu, 17 Oct 2024 - 15min - 2507 - Sneaking in another before Christmas?
Thursday 17th October 2024
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Inflation is slowing faster than expected in the UK. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton whether this means the Bank of England could cut twice before Christmas? Markets have fully priced a cut from the ECB later today, the question is, what next and when? Australian employment numbers and US retail sales are out today, along with a further announcement on housing and debt from the China. Ken says it’s another “drip feed in the ocean of fiscal stimulus” – are markets prepared to be disappointed this time?
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Wed, 16 Oct 2024 - 10min - 2506 - Tariffs. The most beautiful word.
Wednesday 16th October 2024
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There were sizeable moves in various asset classes over the last 24 hours, and that was before a revealing Trump interview with Bloomberg’s Editor in Chief. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about a day that has seen oil lower on expectations that Israel won’t strike Iranian oil installations, shares fall as a report suggests they are overweight and concerns about AI chip demand and possible restrictions on exports from the US. Plus, another shift in sentiment around China’s support plans. NZ and UK CPI are out today. In New Zealand it is expected to support the case for faster cuts, whereas the UK number is likely to give the Bank of England a bit more time to move.
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Tue, 15 Oct 2024 - 18min - 2505 - Stuck in a rut over the ditch
Tuesday 15th October 2024
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New Zealand’s Performance of Services Index stuck yesterday at 45.7 for September, marking the seventh month in contraction. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the only good news you can take for that is that it the downturn isn’t speeding up. In China the latest trade numbers were also a disappointment, highlighting the need for a stimulus from the government. In the US equities pushed higher. Phil asks, it can’t all be earnings season, can it? The question is, are some shares buoyed by the return of the Trump Trade, as the former President is experiencing a resurgence with the bookies. Today bank lending for Europe and employment and wages for the UK are the two key bits of data, along with Canadian inflation.
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Mon, 14 Oct 2024 - 14min - 2504 - Hold on, it’s coming
Monday 14th October 2024
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As predicted by Tapas on The Morning Call last week there was no definitive plan fiscal plan presented by China’s Ministry of Finance on Saturday. As suggested, it will need to be ratified by the standing committee of the National People’s Congress, which is likely to happen before the end of the month. But NAB’s Ray Attrill explains some of the plans that were outlined, including giving local authorities access to earmarked cash that could help stimulate the economy almost immediately. There’s also a look at last week’s US PPI number and what that, in conjunction with the hotter than anticipated CPI number, could mean for the path of rate cuts by the Fed before Christmas. Might there just be one cut to come?
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Sun, 13 Oct 2024 - 14min - 2503 - Weekend Edition: A Suttle World Tour
Friday 11th October 2024
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Phil Suttle is an economist who has worked at JP Morgan, the Bank of England, the Fed, the World Bank, the IIF, Barclays Capital and Tudor Investments. These days he provides his own observations and analysis to paying subscribers, saying he enjoys the independence that provides. He really can say what he thinks. So, what does he think about the world right now? With the US less than a month away from a Presidential election, how will the US economy respond to the two distinctive approaches of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris?
He also talks to Phil about the differences in approaches that have been taken by central banks, including the RBNZ and RBA, the chance of a China recovery and what that means for the west, and the dire state of the German economy.
It’s a whirl wind tour with Phil (and Phil), with so much more to see that we’ll have to do it again sometime soon.
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Fri, 11 Oct 2024 - 35min - 2502 - Coming down slowly
Friday 11th October 2024
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After stronger than expected jobs numbers last week, the CPI data overnight shows inflation isn’t coming down quite as quickly as expected. The combination might suggest there’s less of a rush for the Fed to cut rates but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there hasn’t been significant moves on the pricing of Fed cuts since the inflation numbers. It will make the words from the upcoming “bevvy” of Fed speakers perhaps more interesting than usual. The other significant event to look out for is the announcement from China’s Finance Minister at the weekend. Tapas believes there’s reason to suggest it will be another disappointment. And with the Israeli security cabinet meeting just as we record today’s episode, could they be ready to retaliate? No doubt part fo the reason for the rise in oil and gold prices this morning.
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Thu, 10 Oct 2024 - 15min - 2501 - Heavy Weather
Thursday 10th October 2024
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Storm Milton hit the Florida coast at 1am ET. Despite that, and the continued risk of an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities, oil prices fell overnight. Obviously China demand is part of the picture here, but another ‘announcement’ is expected from Beijing this weekend. In the latest FOMC minutes it is clear there was agreement that the risk of inflation had diminished, whilst the downside risk to employment had increased. The latest payrolls data suggest that downside risk is less clear and JBWere’s Sally Auld wonders whether all those voting for a large cut were entirely convinced of it. Maybe some were cajoled by Jerome Powell. It was a clearer picture for the RBNZ yesterday and Sally wonders whether the next cut will be even bigger.
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Wed, 09 Oct 2024 - 15min - 2500 - Brassed off after a Golden Week
Wednesday 9th October 2024
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Markets with any China connection have responded negatively to news from the National Development Reform Commission. An announcement was expected, and most will have assumed it would include a large swag of spending from the three trillion Yuan that was believed to have been earmarked for fiscal stimulus. But, as NAB’s Ken Crompton discusses with Phil, all they did was brought forward 200 billion Yuan from next year’s budget. They also discuss yesterday’s NAB business survey and look ahead to the RBNZ today. A big cut is expected, but will there be another one next time round?
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Tue, 08 Oct 2024 - 16min - 2499 - Global markets adjust to Fed expectations
Tuesday 8th October 2024
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Today markets are responding to a mix of adjustments to expectations for Fred rate cuts, alongside continued uncertainty about developments in the Middle East. Late in the day in the US a judge has added to downward moves in equities by ruling that Alphabet cannot block other marketplace providers from competing with the Play Store. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril takes Phil through the moves overnight and looks ahead to a Quadrifactor (yes that’s right) of local news. Plus, possibly news of government support from China today.
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Mon, 07 Oct 2024 - 15min - 2498 - Jobs a plenty
Monday 7th October 2024
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The non-farm payrolls data on Friday in the US was a big upside surprise. It means there’s less need for any large cuts by the Fed who will be hoping they will have controlled inflation whilst steering the economy into a soft landing. That’s assuming the rise in jobs doesn’t mean a rise in salary expectations. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks Phil through what it means and why such a strong market response on Friday. Does it have implications for other central banks? Whilst the data might have reduced expectations for faster cuts by the Fed, the BoE’s Huw Pill talked down the market response to Andrew Bailey’s comments in the Guardian. They are in no rush. Unlike the RBNZ, who is widely expected to go for a large cut this week.
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Sun, 06 Oct 2024 - 16min - 2497 - Weekend Edition: Going for Gold
Friday 4th October 2024
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Gold has traditionally been seen as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Yet, in the last few weeks we’ve seen gold repeatedly hitting new highs, even as inflation recedes. The response to the unrest in the Middle East this week hasn’t had the marked impact you might have expected. Gold has been higher at times when the situation has been more contained. So, what is the driving force behind rising Gold prices? John Reade, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, says the price has been driven by purchases from emerging markets, many of whom want to rely less on the US dollar. Phil asks if he’s talking about the BRICs nations, who reportedly want to develop their own gold-backed currency. It’s a fascinating discussion about where gold price growth is coming from and how long it will remain elevated.
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Fri, 04 Oct 2024 - 31min - 2496 - Oil surges on Biden’s unanswered question
Friday 4th October 2024
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Oil has risen sharply this morning after Joe Biden was asked about is support for an Israeli attack, if it was to target Iran’s oil facilities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the US President didn’t really answer the question, but it was enough for investors to fear that this was a scenario that could play out. Elsewhere, markets responded to an unexpected jump in the US services ISM, and surprisingly dovish remarks from the BoE governor that’s heightened expectations for more immediate cuts from the Bank of England Without doubt, though, the most significant news is yet to come - the latest US payrolls data, which could reinforce or deflect market expectations for another 50bp cut at an FOMC meeting before Christmas.
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Thu, 03 Oct 2024 - 15min - 2495 - When Hawks Fly
Thursday 3rd October 2024
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Today, Phil talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about two hawks who seem to have metamorphosed into something a bit more dove-like. First, the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel, who has just about confirmed a rate cut for this month. Secondly, the BoJ’s Governor Ueda who seems to be happy to toe the line of the new Prime Minister. The prospect of no rate hike any time soon, and the questions it raises about the independence of the central bank, has seen the Yen taking a big hit. Looking ahead, the US Services ISM will be the key data piece, whilst we keep a watching brief on developments in the Middle East.
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Wed, 02 Oct 2024 - 15min - 2494 - Risk Off on Israel Iran War Fears
Wednesday 2nd October 2024
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Markets moved swiftly into classic risk-off territory as Iran started firing missiles into Israeli airspace. Early reports suggest minimal damage and casualties, and markets retreated a little. NAB’s Skye Masters says its often the case with significant geopolitical events that the instant reaction is tempered somewhat as more news emerges. Perhaps a broadening conflict will have a more lasting impact on oil. The news did overshadow the strong JOLTs data in the US, which showed more job openings. Australia’s retail sales numbers were also stronger than expected, but it is just one survey and the ABS says warmer weather in August is partially responsible. Meanwhile BNZ has revised its forecasts for rate cuts by the RBNZ, predicting two 50bp cuts before Christmas. The US Vice Presidential debate Is on today, late morning Australia time.
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Tue, 01 Oct 2024 - 16min - 2493 - Powell resetting expectations?
Tuesday 1st October 2024
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Some of the biggest moves yesterday were hardly surprises. The sharp rise in Chinese equities and the fall in Japan. On China, NAB’s Gavin Friend wonders whether markets are too optimistic and whether there’s a pushing on a string element to some of the reforms there. US equities finished higher, having spent much of the session in the red, whilst there were further moves up in bond yields. Gain says there’s some commentary on Jerome Powell winding back on rate cut expectations, when really he was simply reiterating the need to wait and see the dat. That data starts today, with the JOLTs job opening numbers in the US. Australian retail sales will be watched keenly today and survey data for New Zealand could held determine whether the RBNZ goes for a 25bp or 50bpcut next week. Also, NAB has moved forward its forecasts of when the RBA will cut. Listen in for the latest prediction.
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Mon, 30 Sep 2024 - 17min - 2492 - War escalates, and Japan’s PM surprise
Monday 30th September 2024
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What impact will attacks in the Middle East have on markets now? Israel is working hard to neutralise Hezbollah and other Iranian proxy combatants, with attacks on Lebanon and Yemen. It’s the first question Phil put to NAB’s Tapas Strickland on this morning’s podcast. We know there will be a strong response to the election of Japan’s new LDP, with Shigeru Ishiba becoming the new Prime Minister from Tuesday. But what does it mean for the Bank of Japan? They also discuss the latest US PCE data and why markets are expecting a faster rate of cuts than the Fed, as well as looking ahead to European inflation data, Australian deposits and retails ales and US non-farm payrolls at the end of a fairly busy week.
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Sun, 29 Sep 2024 - 17min - 2491 - The Weekend Edition: The rise and rise of ETFs
Friday 27th September 2024
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ETFs – exchange traded funds – are becoming increasingly popular. So who is buying them? What are they buying? Phil is joined by Chamath de Silva, Head of Fixed Income at Betashares, where he manages their fixed income ETFs portfolio. They talk about the growth in ETFs and what it’s doing to flows. For example, is it driving more investors in search of overseas assets? Also, the range of asset classes covered, and the growth of active funds. And what does it mean for the future of investment advisors and fund managers?
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Fri, 27 Sep 2024 - 22min - 2490 - The Bazooka, at long last?
Friday 27th September 2024
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China is set to issue a lot of bonds to fire the long-awaited Bazooka. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss the market reaction to the speculation that China is, at long last, ready to push ahead with a very sizeable fiscal stimulus. Oil behaved the opposite to what you’d expect from the news, driven by expectations of increased supply from Saudi Arabia and Libya. There’s a lot of European data to absorb today, which could paint a picture f what the ECB will do next. Their next meeting is an each way bet at the moment. Finally, Ray explains why the LDP leadership vote in Japan today could be market moving,
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Thu, 26 Sep 2024 - 18min - 2489 - Risk on switched off, whilst Riksbank gets on with it
Thursday 26th September 2024
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The slight risk-on mood we saw after news of potential further stimulus measures in China has ebbed away a little today, particularly in the share market, where indices are generally lower in the US and Europe overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton says there’s a bit of a reassessment during a session low on data. Expectations for an outside cut by the Fed have fallen slightly on the back of one large individual trade. The Riksbank, though, is confidently cutting rates, suggesting they’ll keep going until they reach their neutral rate, once they’ve decided what that is. Given the focus lately is on watching jobs, Australia’s job vacancies and US jobless claims will prove interesting today. And a night when too many Fed speakers is barely enough.
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Wed, 25 Sep 2024 - 16min - 2488 - Does China have a workable plan?
Wednesday 25th September 2024
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There is still some uncertainty about the future direction of US policy, with the Fed’s Michelle Bowman still concerned about a potential return of inflation, whilst most other Fed members are worried about a downturn in employment having a broader impact on the economy. NAB’s Skye Masters says the diversity of opinion is being driven by mixed data, the sharp slowdown in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Report being the latest example. But there is a slight risk-on mood today, driven by hopes that China will offer a comprehensive package to kick start their economy. Meanwhile, the RBA kept rates on hold as expected, and weakness in European PMIs yesterday has heightened expectations for two more cuts by the ECB this year.
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Tue, 24 Sep 2024 - 15min - 2487 - Disappointing news
Tuesday 24th September 2024
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Monday’s global PMIs were universally disappointing, but the downward trajectory was most pronounced in Europe and, in particularly Germany. It’s created a mixed story in bond movements today, even though equities have fared well. NAB’s Tapas Strickland describes how markets are seeing the relative positions of the US and Europe right now. Today the RBA announces its rate decision, with widespread agreement that they will keep rates on hold. But how long for? And is China about to go for broke on their 5% growth target?
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Mon, 23 Sep 2024 - 16min - 2486 - Making minor adjustments
Monday 23rd September 2024
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There were surprisingly small moves in bond yields on Friday, whilst investors in shares seemed to be momentarily reassessing their optimism after the 50bp cut from the Fed. Nonetheless, two more cuts are assumed this year, with a rising expectation that there will be another big cut before Christmas, assisted by comments from the Fed’s Waller who suggested that inflation is falling faster than expected. The standout move in currencies was the Japanese Yen responding to push-back on the expected timing of the next rate rise by the BoJ’s Governor Ueda. Today, global PMIs are released, giving the latest snapshot on the relative strength of Germany versus the rest of Europe versus the US.
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Sun, 22 Sep 2024 - 15min - 2485 - Weekend Edition: The Invisible Hand Behind Your Super Fund
Friday 20th September 2024
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.
From Super funds to family trusts, John Coombe, Executive Director at JANA, has been providing investment advice for well over three decades. He is one of Australia’s most highly regarded asset managers. So, what’s the secret to his success? Part of the answer, he says, is listening to a client’s needs. The other element is to do with timing. What else? Phil teases out more from John as they take a whistle stop tour around the globe, through various asset classes and the influence of everything from central banks, to governments, to how companies treat investors. It’s an entertaining half an hour that will demonstrate the other reason for John’s success – his understanding of how the world is connected and constantly changing.
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Fri, 20 Sep 2024 - 29min - 2484 - Markets buoyant from Fed hikes. BoE plays it cool.
Friday 20th September 2024
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Equity markets have responded positively to the mega-cut from the Fed yesterday, whist the Bank of England plays it cool, keeping rates on hold yesterday. Andrew Bailey said they should be able to reduce rates gradually over time, without giving any clear signal on how gradual or how much time. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates on hold, but with CPI expected to rise today NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders how long they’ve be able to maintain that policy position. He also discusses with Phil yesterday’s employment numbers from Australia and New Zealand’s GDP numbers which, although slightly better than expected, still show an economy in trouble.
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Thu, 19 Sep 2024 - 17min - 2483 - Fed cuts, revises dot plot, markets still want more
Thursday 19th September 2024
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Perhaps not surprisingly the Fed opted for the 50bp cut. Markets responded sharply, but then rowed back shortly afterwards as Jerome Powell tried to downplay the significance of the move at the press conference that followed, saying this wasn’t a new pace just a recalibration of policy. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to decipher the language, the revised forecasts and the market response. Next, it’s the BoE, unlikely to move, particularly after a slightly hotter than expected inflation print. Plus, Australian employment numbers and NZ GDP today.
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Wed, 18 Sep 2024 - 18min - 2482 - The widening Atlantic drift
Wednesday 18th September 2024
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There have been no surprises in US economic data overnight. Retail sales, industrial production and manufacturing weren’t far off expectations. So, do they all point to a soft landing? And if that’s the scenario, why would the Fed delay a big rate cut? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Ken Crompton, less than 24 hours from the FOMC decision, which includes revised forecasts and a new dot plot. There’s also the question as to whether the Bank of Canada will move to a faster cutting schedule, given CPI actually showed deflation last month. UK CPI is the main figure today – in particular the sticky services inflation. And, could the ECB be forced to cut rates faster in face of a slowing economy, with the latest ZEW survey for Germany showing confidence has plummeted as hopes of a recovery subside.
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Tue, 17 Sep 2024 - 14min - 2481 - Is the Fed spending too long in the shower?
Tuesday 17th September 2024
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Market pricing moved further in favour of a 50bpcut from the fed this week. Does that mean the Fed, who are expected to make at least one big cut before Christmas, side with the market? It makes it easier for them to walk through an open door, says JBWere’s Sally Auld on this morning’s podcast. There’s also discussion about Paul Krugman’s tweets overnight, suggesting that a data dependent Fed risks becoming Milton Friedman’s fool in the shower — the guy who alternately freezing and scalding himself because he’s too data-dependent. Canada’s CPI print is the only major data release of the day. What does it mean for the BoC, and how long do they stay in the shower for before they leave those taps alone?
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Mon, 16 Sep 2024 - 15min - 2480 - Big or small?
Monday 16th September 2024
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Big or small, that’s the question this week. Will the Fed go for a 50bp cut? If the plan is to do that at some point this year, why not now? That’s one of the arguments being touted, which Phil discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill. Certainly, equity markets seem to be expecting a larger cut, with the Russell 2000 showing particularly strong growth on Friday. Meanwhile softer activity data from China suggests they are sliding further away from their 5% growth target, but there’s no indication of when the Politburo will implement new policies beyond the remit of the PBoC.
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Sun, 15 Sep 2024 - 12min - 2479 - Weekend Edition: Getting to know labour market data
Friday 13th September 2024
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The Labour Market Report is one of the most eagerly awaited monthly releases from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It’s even more crucial at times like now, when it is so influential on central bank policy. But in many countries gathering this data is proving difficult. People are less prepared to participate, and gathering reliable information is becoming more costly. That’s not been an issue in Australia, according to Bjorn Jarvis, the ABS’s Head of Labour Statistics. He says the Australian population is generally very civic minded. That makes things easier. In this half hour Weekend edition Phil talks to Bjorn about how the data is collected and analysed and what trends have surprised him over recent years.
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Fri, 13 Sep 2024 - 29min - 2478 - ECB cuts rates and downgrades growth
Friday13th September 2024
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The ECB cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.5 percent, as expected. The question is, will there be more to come soon. The growth forecast has been downgraded slightly. Mario Draghi’s report is asking for substantial investment to see substantive growth in Europe and last month the ECB’s Ollie Rehn warned of the prospect of negative growth if a re-elected President Trump goes heavy on tariffs. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril gives his take on the ECB’s dilemma. We also look at US PPI and jobless claims overnight, and the rising government deficit. Plus, the impact of Hurricane Francine and what to expect from China’s activity data over the weekend.
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Thu, 12 Sep 2024 - 16min - 2477 - A Swift win for Kamala, and a rogue CPI print
Thursday 12th September 2024
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Kamala Harris “won“ the Presidential debate, by most accounts, and US core GDP showed a slight tick up last month. Neither bit of news really moved the markets. Harris still has to win the election and, although a rise in CPI may be concerning, the headline rate came down for the fifth month in a row. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it hasn’t changed the pricing for cuts by year end, it might just push back a 50bp cut further than next week. The ECB is expected to cut rates today, whilst the BoE will be balancing up higher job numbers this week, with another flat GDP read overnight.
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Wed, 11 Sep 2024 - 18min - 2476 - Market responds to OPEC+ downgrade. US CPI and THAT debate to come.
Wednesday 11th September 2024
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There’s been sizable falls in oil prices overnight, driven by a downward revision to OPEC+ forecasts for this year and next. NAB’s Skye Masters talks about the market response to the oil price and the slowdown more generally. She suggests it’ll make next week’s forecasts and dot plot from the Fed particularly interesting. We shouldn’t expect too much of a reaction to the US CPI numbers today and, unless there’s an overwhelming winner in the TV debate today, it’s probably too early to resume the Trump trade.
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Tue, 10 Sep 2024 - 15min - 2475 - Bad Apple Not Stopping Bounce Back
Tuesday 10th September 2024
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US equities rose sharply to the close overnight. Apple shares rose less than most, with prices actually falling during the release of the new iPhone 16, which clearly failed to impress markets. But that wasn’t enough to stop a lot of dip-buying during a session largely devoid of data releases. There’s a bit more today with the latest employment data for the UK, numbers that could definitely influence the direction of the Bank of England next week. Otherwise, markets wait for US CPI and the big debate, both more than a day away.
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Mon, 09 Sep 2024 - 13min - 2474 - Worried about revisions
Monday 9th September 2024
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Whilst the US unemployment rate came in as expected on Friday, at 4.2 percent, it was downward revision to the previous two months numbers that seem to have caused the most consternation. With the Fed signalling their focus is on ensuring there isn’t a sudden downturn in employment, will these numbers raise the expectations that the cut next week will be a big one. Not yet says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, even though there has been a notable change in language from the Fed. Friday also saw a rise in demand for housing loans in Australia – adding to the RBA’s argument that there’s no need to move quickly to cutting rates. The week ahead includes US CPI numbers and an interest rate decision from the ECB.
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Sun, 08 Sep 2024 - 15min - 2473 - Weekend Edition: China’s Missed Opportunity
Friday 6th September 2024
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China won’t achieve its 5% growth target this year. Yan Wang, Chief Emerging Markets & China Strategist at Alpine Macro, says the forward indicators show it won’t happen. So, what next for China? Yan says a shift in government policy is needed. Their focus has been on developing new, higher income sectors, such as EV manufacture. That makes perfect sense. But there’s no support on the demand side of the economy, which is languishing under low confidence levels, less spending and a shrinking money supply. All that can be turned around, but that takes a change in thinking from Beijing.
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Fri, 06 Sep 2024 - 28min - 2472 - Waiting on a knife edge
Friday 6th September 2024
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We are less than a day away from the US non-farm payrolls numbers, which are likely to determine whether the Fed cuts interest rates by 25bp or 50bp at this month’s meeting. NAB’s Ray Attrill says if the numbers are in-line with expectations he reckons that’ll solidify pricing for a 25bp cut, but anything weaker would push expectations towards 50bp. It’ll be interesting to see the take of two prominent Fed speakers – Williams and Waller - a couple of hours after the event. Meanwhile Michelle Bullock reiterated the need to keep rates high to fight inflation, arguing that inflation does more damage than higher rates.
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Thu, 05 Sep 2024 - 14min - 2471 - Less jobs, more uncertainty
Thursday 5th September 2024
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Shares continue to push lower along with bond yields as markets continue to be concerned about the US jobs market. The JOLTs numbers overnight show the least number of jobs available since April 2021. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are vacillating between expected a 25bp and a 50bpcut from the Fed this month and the overnight numbers pushed slightly towards the stronger cut. Meanwhile, Australia’s GDP growth data yesterday showed a slowdown in consumption, but the assumption is this will pick up as real income increases, helped along by tax cuts. And the Bank of Canada cut rates for a third time, with more to follow, amidst talk that inflation might fall too far. Ahead of payrolls on Friday we get ADP jobs numbers today and the weekly jobless claims. Expect markets to react!
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Wed, 04 Sep 2024 - 16min - 2470 - Nervous Nellies
Wednesday 4th September 2024
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There have been some sharp defensive market moves overnight. In currency markets safe havens have done well, whilst shares are well down, the VIX index has risen and bonds have rallied. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend why all this nervousness all of a sudden? The only significant data release has been the US Manufacturing ISM which admittedly, did include rising prices and falls in new orders. Was that what spooked the markets, or is it more a fear of what’s to come, with payrolls at the end of the week? Before that, JOLTs and the Bank of Canada tonight.
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Tue, 03 Sep 2024 - 15min - 2469 - America back in time for manufacturing numbers
Tuesday 3rd September 2024
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Markets were subdued again on Monday with the US on holiday. Today they are back, in time for the ISM manufacturing read. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the employment component of the report will get the most focus, as the first of several labour market indicators ahead of non-farm payrolls at the end of the week. He also talks us through yesterday’s Australian business indicators and what they could mean for GDP.
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Mon, 02 Sep 2024 - 12min - 2468 - ECB and US inflation leading to rate cuts. Australia waits.
Monday 2nd September 2024
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European inflation is now at its lowest level in three years, whilst shares hit an all-time high. That’s cemented in the probability of a cut by the ECB this month. Expectations for cuts by the Fed haven’t moved any higher, as the Core PCE inflation read on Friday was in-line with expectations. But the fact that other central banks are cutting doesn’t mean the RBA will. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks about what the RBA’s Andrew Hauser had to say on this during a podcast from Friday. Today is a quiet start to a busy week, with the US on holiday today, leading to non-farm payrolls on Friday.
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Sun, 01 Sep 2024 - 17min - 2467 - Weekend Edition: Australian Equities Doing Nicely Thankyou
Friday 16th August 2024
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Despite all the fears of a major slowdown, Australian shares have continued to rise and the latest results season has provided stronger than expected earnings. nabtrade’s Gemma Dale says the underlying strength in the economy, which is providing the RBA with no motive to drop rates in a hurry, is being reflected in healthy sales revenue and profits. The historic safe choices (ie mining and financials), continue to perform, even though the questions are always asked – have we reached peak iron ore, have we reached peak bank? And what of the growth in ETFs. Are they becoming more dominant and are they being used primarily as a vehicle to invest in overseas assets?
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Fri, 30 Aug 2024 - 21min - 2466 - AI caution, higher US spending and Aussie capex wanes
Friday 30th August 2024
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Two surprises from the US. First, a 100 percent growth from NVIDIA wasn’t enough for investors, who obviously expected more. So, even though their results were considered a beat, their share price is still well down. The other surprise was the sharp upward revision in US spending. Personal spending was revised up from 2.3% to 2.9%. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril picks through the numbers. And should we be worried about the fall in Australian Capex spending yesterday? It’s a busy day ahead today, with European CPI, Australian retail sales and Canada’s GDP.
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Thu, 29 Aug 2024 - 16min - 2465 - NVIDIA fails to disappoint
Thursday 29th August 2024
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Equity markets were preoccupied with NVIDIA earnings for much of the week, finishing the session with unwarranted pessimism. As it turns out, earnings beat expectations and forecasts for the next quarter are also above the street’s estimates. As a result, the share price switched from a 2.5% drop at close to a 0.5% gain immediately after the earnings announcement. We wait to see what the broader ramifications are. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s a bellwether for how well AI is doing. We also look at yesterday’s Australian CPI from yesterday and look ahead to European inflation numbers, out today and tomorrow.
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Wed, 28 Aug 2024 - 15min - 2464 - Aussie inflation and not much more
Wednesday 28th August 2024
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Australia’s latest monthly inflation number is out today. Phil asks NAB’s Skye Masters what’s expected and how pivotal will it be to the RBA, given they seem intent to keep rates on hold until next year. This time tomorrow NVIDIA releases its Q2 earnings, possibly the most significant event in a week devoid of large data releases. Which is why Phil and Skye resort to picking the bones out of a number of second tier releases from the US and Europe from yesterday and overnight. But every number counts.
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Tue, 27 Aug 2024 - 13min - 2463 - Letting it all sink in
Tuesday 27th August 2024
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There hasn’t been a lot of market movement overnight. What there was saw a slight reversal on positions taken after Powell’s talk at Jackson Hole. Hence, the dollar is back up a little, shares have fallen, and bond yields are up slightly too. It’s lighter trading, of course, at the height of the northern summer and only second tier data to keep us occupied. That’s why NVIDIA’s earnings results on Wednesday (US time) could have an outsized influence on shares. Oil is sharply higher today, because of Libyan politics rather than tensions between Hezbollah and israel. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss the day’s market news.
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Mon, 26 Aug 2024 - 13min - 2462 - The time has come
Monday 26th August 2024
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Even though Fed speakers positioned markets to expect gradual and methodical cuts late last week, it was a very different language used by Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss what was said and how market reacted. It’s clear a September cut is coming, with the Fed chair declaring that “the time has come for policy to adjust”, with a focus more on easing in the jobs market than the fears of a reprise in inflation. They also look ahead to a fairly busy week for data, including CPI and retail sales in Australia.
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Sun, 25 Aug 2024 - 16min - 2461 - Weekend Edition: A world of difference - RBNZ v RBA
Friday 16th August 2024
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.
On the face of it you’d wonder why central banks in New Zealand and Australia have taken such different paths when it comes to fighting inflation. They are both western economies that were growing reasonably well before the pandemic. Their response in 2020 was similar, with massive fiscal injections and quite severe lockdowns. So, why such a radical difference in the response to inflation post-pandemic? The RBNZ is rapidly cutting rates, whilst the RBA is unlikely to start until next year.
Stephen Toplis, Head of research at BNZ Markets in Wellington, says the economies are not the same. Even before the pandemic New Zealand was suffering with labour shortages, pushing wages higher. Now the economy has seen a more significant slowing, in part due to their higher level of rates. As Gareth Spence points out, NAB’s Head of Australian Economics, there is certainly an adjustment going on in Australia, but overall the economy and labour market have been resilient.
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Fri, 23 Aug 2024 - 32min - 2460 - Let’s get gradual
Friday 23rd August 2024
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Bond yields are higher, the dollar has fallen and US equities are lower. Markets have switched direction over the last 24 hours. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there are three reasons for the reversal – the latest PMI data, central bank speak and expectations for the outcome of the US election. The rhetoric from Fed speakers has been around a more gradual approach to rate cuts. It’s also the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium. It’s just like the Oscars for central bankers, without the awards, the glamour or the popular appeal. But, for all the speeches and panel discussions, will anything be said that’s not already known or assumed?
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Thu, 22 Aug 2024 - 17min - 2459 - Not much carry on
Thursday 22nd August 2024
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Today as the US dollar weakens again, against a rising Yen, Phil asks JBWere’s Sally Auld to explain the impact rates differentials are having on the Japanese carry trade. The FOMC minutes this morning came as close as they possibly could to saying a rate cut will happen in September. That’s added to the weakness in the US dollar, and helped equities recover. They also look at the price of oil, which Sally says is reaching a point where it represents better value for investors. Global PMIs are the focus, along with th weekly jobless claims. A downward revision to the non-farm payrolls overnight was quite marked, but Sally explains why markets didn’t react toit as much as you might expect.
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Wed, 21 Aug 2024 - 17min - 2458 - Holding Pattern
Wednesday 21st August 2024
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It’s been another quiet session, with stocks taking a breather after an 8-day rally, with volumes for the S&P 25% below its 20-day average. Bond yields have pushed lower, which NAB’s Ken Crompton says is largely a response to Canada’s CPI numbers, which presented the evidence needed for the Bank of Canada to continue with its rate cuts. The US dollar ticked lower again, thanks to a sharp rise in the Yen, which was a response to a Bank of Japan report suggesting inflation was rising from wage pressures and corporate behaviour (presumably, claiming bigger margins). That seems to have been taken as the case for further rate hikes by the bank, and Friday’s inflation number might seal the deal.
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Tue, 20 Aug 2024 - 15min - 2457 - Shares Rally In Northern Hiatus
Tuesday 20th August 2024
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We are in the thick of the US and European holiday season, mixed with a dearth of data. Hence, shares are pushing higher, presumably on the hope of greater reassurance around rate cuts from the Fed at Jackson Hole. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets wouldn’t react well if there isn’t some indication that September cuts are on the cards. Meanwhile the US dollar drifts lower, oil takes a hit and bonds remain fairly flat. Today Canada’s CPI is the main data point, whilst we’ll be looking for any additional colour in the latest minutes from the RBA.
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Mon, 19 Aug 2024 - 15min - 2456 - All eyes on Jackson Hole
Monday 19th August 2024
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Central bankers get together for the glitzy proceedings of the Jackson Hole Symposium this week. Will Jerome Powell use it s a springboard for more advice on how and when the Fed will cut rates? Probably not, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, given the focus on data in Fed decision making and there’s much that’s new in the intervening days. Still, markets are optimistic, evidenced by seven days of consecutive growth in the S&P share index up to Friday. The Riksbank could announce a supersized cut this week and a softer Canadian CPI print could see the Bank of Canada heading the same way.
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Sun, 18 Aug 2024 - 14min - 2455 - Weekend Edition: Is there too much state debt?
Friday 16th August 2024
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.
A report last week from S&P Global highlights that the debt held by Australian states could exceed $600 billion later this year. Rebecca Hrvatin joins Phil to discuss this rise in debt and what it’s doing to credit ratings. Overspend on infrastructure projects seem to be one of the major concerns.
But there’s no shortage of buyers according to Ken Crompton. Ken is senior fixed income strategist at NAB and a regular on The Morning Call. He says, ironically, greater debt will be attractive to overseas investors who might previously have been put off by the limited availability of Australian state debt.
The issue going forward is not how much debt is being carried, but how effectively it’s being managed. Massive project overspends are part of the problem and interest payments are becoming an increasing proportion of state governments’ expenditure.
Phil asks whether green bonds could restore some balance and attract even more foreign buyers.
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Fri, 16 Aug 2024 - 26min - 2454 - Too much of a good thing
Friday 16th August 2024
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US retail sales numbers out yesterday showed surprisingly strong spending in July. That’s pushed equities markedly higher. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says bond yields are up as markets see this retail strength as a sign that the US is not heading for a recession, which reduces the impetus for a faster path of cuts by the Fed. Rodrigo also discusses the UK’s GDP read, today’s retail numbers there, and the swag of activity data from China yesterday. Plus, what to make of yesterday's Australian employment numbers.
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Thu, 15 Aug 2024 - 16min - 2453 - No surprises!
Thursday 15th August 2024
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US shares moved up slightly – except for the Russell 2000 - and bond yields fell a little, after the release of the US Core CPI print overnight. The response was muted because the data came in pretty much as expected. It was anyone’s guess where the RBNZ was heading, but we expected a cut on the advice of the BNZ and that’s what we saw. And NAB’s Gavin Friend proudly conveys the positive vibes from Britain, where inflation came in softer than expected, with the hope of a strong GDP growth number later today. If markets weren’t moved by US CPI, will the jobless claims repeat the influence they had this time last week, coupled with the latest retail sales numbers and a couple of regional manufacturing reports.
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Wed, 14 Aug 2024 - 18min - 2452 - Risk appetite back for a day
Wednesday 14th August 2024
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Softer than expected producer prices in the US has convinced the markets that the Fed will be ready to cut in September. NAB’s Skye Masters says in an environment where decisions by central banks are so data dependent we are seeing wide shifts in sentiment, particularly in equity and bond markets, as each release is published. That means the markets at the US close on Wednesday could be violently different on Thursday when US CPI is released. We can also expect some volatility from the RBNZ decision today, with analysts split on whether or not the NZ central bank will cut rates.
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Tue, 13 Aug 2024 - 15min - 2451 - Markets wait calmly for US inflation data
Tuesday 13th August 2024
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US shares and bond markets have remained relatively calm, as we await the latest inflation data from the US (PPI today, CPI tomorrow). There’s plenty of data flow this week, says NAB’s Taylor Nugent, but there’s been nothing so far to move markets. Locally, will the speech from the RBA’s Andrew Hauser have any impact on the pricing for rate cuts this year? He criticised the media for talking with “extraordinary certainty” about the outlook of the economy and what the RBA was going to do about it. But markets are still pricing in a 50:50 chance of a rate cut as early as November, despite the bank’s determined effort to convince us otherwise.
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Mon, 12 Aug 2024 - 14min - 2450 - The recession they didn’t have to have
Monday 11th August 2024
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Remember when Pauk Keating talked about the recession we had to have? Markets thought the US was heading the same way last week, but went off the idea as the week progressed. Thoughts of an emergency rate cut were quickly dismissed, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s still more than 25bp of cuts priced in for September. A 50bp cut could still happen before the end of the year. US inflation data is out this week but, unless there’s an outsize surprise, markets are unlikely to respond too much. The focus is on jobs now, although the Fed’s Michelle Bowman outlined several inflation risk factors on Friday that are worth watching for.
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Sun, 11 Aug 2024 - 14min - 2449 - Weekend Edition: A bright future for Indigenous businesses
Friday 9th August 2024
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Friday (Aug 9th) is the United Nations' International Day of the World's Indigenous Peoples. To celebrate, the Morning Call looks at how Australia is witnessing a growth in companies established and run by Indigenous Peoples.
NAB’s Noel Prakash says there’s been a shift from predominantly cultural and tourism related entities, to more mainstream businesses. He talks about Kooya as one example, providing fleet management and salary packing services to mineral businesses in Western Australia.
There’s the obvious opportunity for more to be done in the green space, too, from a people with a deep-rooted attachment to the earth. But what’s stopping us from having more Indigenous entrepreneurs? Noel talks about how NAB is amongst those offering more capital for start-ups, and how on a global scale even Twitter founder Jack Dorsey sees the size of the opportunity that can come from the right investment in Indigenous projects.
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Fri, 09 Aug 2024 - 23min - 2448 - Markets turn, just on weekly jobless numbers?
Friday 9th August 2024
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There was a sharp turnaround in US equities, with the S&P closing up 2.3%. It seems a lot of weight has been put behind the weekly jobless claims number, which is not normally a data point that would drive markets. But in this climate anything is possible. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it was probably an overreaction. Whilst some might see the week’s fall in claims as supporting an argument that the US is a long way from recession, others will point to the trend which shows claims are rising and the job market is weakening. In Australia the RBA’s Michelle Bullock stepped up the language around the persistence of inflation to try and knock out expectations of cuts this year, and the rising Aussie dollar is a sign that maybe the markets are listening. Today, China’s inflation numbers and Canada’s employment data are the two main releases.
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Thu, 08 Aug 2024 - 14min - 2447 - T’was a Wobbly Wednesday
Thursday 8th August 2024
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There is still a lot of volatility around. US shares started the session well, with strong signs that risk appetite was improving. Then came a weak response to a a $42 billion 10-year bond auction. That made markets nervous and US equities closed sharply in the red. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about why the auction didn’t go well, and the influence Japan is still having on markets, influenced yesterday and overnight by words from BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida. Today the NAB Business Survey is out and the RBA’s Michelle Bullock speaks early afternoon.
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Wed, 07 Aug 2024 - 18min - 2446 - Crisis over. Carry on. Really?
Wednesday 7th August 2024
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Is it feasible to expect a sharp recovery from one data set, after the extreme response to last week’s US jobs data? Markets bounced back sharply today, pushing US yields higher, strengthening the dollar and pushing shares back up. Although trade retraced its steps a little as the session marched on, with shares losing about half their gains at the US close. NAB’s Ken Crompton says we can expect volatility to be around for a while yet. Meanwhile, the RBA showed little concern for the risks of an economic slowdown, sending a clear message not to expect rate cuts this year and how they had given serious consideration to a rate hike this week. It’s a quieter session today, but that doesn’t man it won’t be just as volatile.
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Tue, 06 Aug 2024 - 14min - 2445 - Manic Monday
Tuesday 6th August 2024
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US shares took more of a hammering on Monday, although an upside surprise on the Services ISM read stopped things spiralling from bad to worse. Phil talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about another day of volatile market action, particularly for Japan, where the Yen rose sharply and shares fell quickly. They talk about where is the Fed now on its path of cuts for the rest of the year, and whether markets overplayed the response to the weaker than expected jobs data. Does any of this have any influence over what the RBA does next, assuming they keep rates on hold today?
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Mon, 05 Aug 2024 - 16min - 2444 - Markets rocked as Sahm Rule ignited
Monday 5th August 2024
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There was a strong response to the weaker than expected US payrolls numbers on Friday, not on the heals of weak manufacturing data. Markets will be sensitive to the Services today, in case it adds another blow to US growth and fuels more inflation speculation.
NAB’s Taylor Nugent says part of the concern is that Friday’s rise in unemployment, from 3.8% in March to 4.3% in June, meets the criteria for the Sahm Rule, which is seen as a stronger predictor of a forthcoming recession.
The news on Friday was felt across most asset classes, with equities in the US and Europe particularly feeling the hurt. Whilst the Fed might be scrambling to play catch-up on rate cuts, Huw Pill has suggested the Bank of England is still fighting inflation, and the RBA is expected to remain on hold tomorrow.
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Sun, 04 Aug 2024 - 14min - 2443 - Weekend Edition: Well off track for Net Zero
Friday 2nd August 2024
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The latest Bloomberg New Energy Outlook seems to show that globally we are way off the mark when it comes to reaching Net Zero by 2050. Instead, the report suggests we could still be pumping 25 gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. That’s less than today but not enough of a reduction to contain temperature growth. The numbers are based on Bloomberg’s Economic Transition scenario, which assumes we let the economy drive the decision making, without any further policy or investment strategies. But Leonard Quong, head of Australian research at Bloomberg NEF, says the differential between Net Zero and the Economic Transition scenario has been narrowing each year, so there is grounds for optimism. They also touch on the question of nuclear energy. It might make sense in some markets, but is it right for Australia?
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Fri, 02 Aug 2024 - 29min - 2442 - BoE boldly goes where the Fed feared to tread
Friday 2nd August 2024
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The US share market has taken a bit of a beating after US manufacturing numbers came in a lot softer than expected. It was another sign of a US slow down that has some clearly wondering whether the Fed will cut more this year. There is no waiting for the BoE. They cut rates but NAB’s Gavin Friend says it was a finely balanced decision. Services inflation continues to be the UK’s Achilles heal, but their manufacturing numbers are doing better than most. Tonight all eyes will be on the US non-farm payrolls, particularly as Jerome Powell has indicated that the fed will be looking closely for any slowdown on the jobs market as, with inflation largely under control, it focuses more on the second part of its dual mandate.
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Thu, 01 Aug 2024 - 16min - 2441 - Fed holds, BoJ lifts, BoE set to cut. Shares go crazy.
Thursday 1st August 2024
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It’s been a busy session, with US shares shooting higher as the Fe keeps rates on hold but the market reading the fed’s commentary of a September cut even more likely. During the press conference Jerome Powell basically said it was on the table if things carried on as they are. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the latest from the Fed, and suggests that yesterday’s softer than expected CPI print for Australia puts paid to any further talk of rate rises. But it’s also not good enough to bring forward cuts. The Bank of Japan did lift rates by 15bp, pushing yields up and a 2 percent rise in the Yen. Today the Bank of England meets. Will they really cut rates head of the Fed? And Meta reported strong earnings after the close, helping bolster after-hours trade.
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Wed, 31 Jul 2024 - 18min - 2440 - When it rains it pours: Aussie inflation, Japan’s rate decision. Microsoft earnings
Wednesday 31st July 2024
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It’s a packed episode of The Morning Call today as Phil gets NAB’s Ray Attrill to take us through the latest GDP and inflation data from Europe, jobs data from the US and, from China, the Politburo’s promise to jump into action and reach 5% GDP, without really saying how. Today Australia’s CPI is the main point of interest because it could drive the RBA to an interest rate rise. A rise is expected from the bank of Japan later, perhaps a little more than previously thought. And Microsoft’s earnings results came in stronger than expected, but the after hours share price clearly didn’t like the softer results for intelligent cloud revenue.
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Tue, 30 Jul 2024 - 18min
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