ChinaTalk

To discuss the Department of Justice’s new proposed rule on data security, we interviewed two brilliant guests from the ChinaTalk Hall of Fame — DOJ National Security Division attorneys Lee Licata and Devin DeBacker. Before DOJ, Lee was an attorney at DHS and then CBP, while Devin was a partner at Kirkland & Ellis and then worked with the Office of White House Counsel. Today we’ll be discussing the DOJ’s new proposed rule on data security.  We get into… DOJ’s plan to protect your data from foreign adversaries, How public comments have shaped the proposed rule since the last time we interviewed Lee and Devin, DOJ’s tools for enforcing corporate compliance, The differences between data security regulations, privacy laws, and export controls, Why some public comments get accepted and some get rejected, The DOJ playbook for assembling a dream team of talented bureaucrats. Thanks to Nicholas Welch for hosting this interview! Outtro music: Bad Boys (Theme from Cops) (Youtube link) + Everybody Loves the Sunshine (Takuya Kuroda) (YouTube) Submit comments here. Check out our last show about the DOJ's data security rule here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Antoine, aka 多多底料, is a French Mandarin teacher by day and a Chinese rap enthusiast by night. Today, he’s here with a setlist of his favorite hip hop tracks. His original songs can be found here. Bonne écoute! Track 1: 芳草地 (The Fragrant Meadow) by DIGI GHETTO (艾志恒Asen/thomeboydontkill/mac ova seas/KIV/Mula Sakee/付思遥) Track 2: 威远故事 (The Story of Weiyuan County) by GAI周延 Track 3: 变蓝 (Turning Blue) by 也是福 (Eddie Beatz) feat. PO8 and 喜辰晨 Track 4: 亚特兰蒂斯陷落 (Atlantis Surrenders) by 弗兰德斯坦/C-Low  Track 5: 春雪采耳 (Ear Cleanse In The Spring Snow) by 施鑫文月 and 小老虎 (Lil Tiger) Track 6: THE MESSAGE PT.2 by CREAM D and 艾热AIR Track 7: 落幕 (Sunset) by Asen (feat. GALI, 堵琳Caroline) Track 8: 囚 (Cage) by 李佳隆 (JelloRio) Track 9: 恨与爱 (Hate and Love) by AThree  Track 10: 不负责 (Why u blame on me?) by Capper and (ﾉI A I)ﾉ♡ Track 11: 危险派对 by 王以太 Links to all these songs can be found on the ChinaTalk Substack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

ChinaTalk columnist Alexa Pan and Jake Newby of the China music substack Concrete Avalanche (https://jakenewby.substack.com/) No election content whatsoever! 1. 'Hohhot Aquarium' - NarrowLaneAngel 窄巷天使 One of the stand-out acts from the Kind of Shoegaze Vol. 1 compilation focused on young Chinese bands that was released at the start of the year, NarrowLaneAngel formed in Inner Mongolia in 2023. In August of that year, they released an eponymous debut EP. 2. 'Limpid' - Forsaken Autumn Based in Shanghai, Forsaken Autumn have been together since 2011, propelled by the talents of britlulu (who also founded the East Asia Shoegaze Festival) and singer Ecke Wu. Released at the tail-end of 2015, Forsaken Autumn’s record Whenere — dubbed “the Chinese Loveless” by one commenter on Bandcamp — is a classic in Chinese shoegaze circles. 3. 'Nostalgia' - Summer Daze Founded in 2021, Summer Daze are another band who featured on the Kind of Shoegaze compilation series from Amemoyo. After a couple of early EPs, they've put out four new singles over the course of this year. 4. 'Firework' - The White Tulips Xiamen music scene stalwart Chen Zhenchao (also known as Soda) has moved away from shoegaze into surf-rock and dream- and city-pop territory with his more recent projects, but in 2015 he and his band The White Tulips delivered the decidedly shoegazey Fondle. It’s re-release on vinyl in 2021 was a nod to its status as a Chinese shoegaze classic. 5. 'Float' - Chocland.doc 巧克力文件岛 Hebei five piece Chocland.doc apparently first came together at a former residence of Eileen Chang, but are seemingly yet to write a song based on Lust, Caution or any of her other novels. "Of course, the name of the band has no meaning," they say, "what you understand is what you understand." 6. 'Is your dream still out-focus' - Lunacid Another one of China's newer shoegaze acts, Lunacid were formed in 2023. The trio hail from Changsha and also featured on the Kind of Shoegaze compilation series. 7. '迷航' ('Dazedtrek') - 哲学思潮 (Philosophy Currents) Formed just last year, 哲学思潮 hail from Nanning in Guangxi province, near the border with Vietnam. Their debut album Dazedtrek was recently made available on Bandcamp.  8. 'Detached' - The Numen Shanghai-based quartet The Numen met on arts review platform Douban and have pursued a shared love of shoegaze and indie-rock since the summer of 2023. They namecheck shoegaze greats such as My Bloody Valentine's Kevin Shields among their influences.  9. 'Cat Tenant (Summer)' - Baby Formula Formed by “three boring people with no expectations for the unknown journey ahead”, Beijing band Baby Formula came seemingly out of nowhere, dropped an impressive eponymous debut album in the autumn of 2013, and then promptly disappeared again. Still, their music continues to resonate over a decade later. 10. 'star' - Dear Eloise As frontman for long-running band PK14, Yang Haisong is one of the godfathers of Chinese post-punk. Yet he’s also played a pivotal role in bringing more experimental, noisy, and yes, shoegazey sounds to the fore. Formed in 2007 with his wife (and one-time PK14 bassist) Sun Xia, Dear Eloise have released a string of atmospheric records over the years and remain an influential act in China. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Why did the Soviet Union collapse? Which lessons from Cold War history are relevant for China’s future? To discuss the successes, failures, and strategies of Soviet leaders, ChinaTalk interviewed Yakov Feygin. Feygin is the author of Building a Ruin: The Cold War Politics of Soviet Economic Reform, which examines how various Soviet leaders, institutions, and economists attempted to boost Soviet growth and national power.  Co-hosting today is Jon Sine, writer of the Cogitations substack. We discuss: The strengths and limitations of the Stalinist economic model, Khrushchev’s shift to “peaceful competition” with capitalism, Alternative policy paths that could have saved the Soviet Union, How technological optimism shaped Soviet reform efforts, inspiring the CCP in the process, Parallels between the institutions of the Soviet Union and those of contemporary China, The battle between political scientists and historians when analyzing the political economy of authoritarian states. Outro music: Building a Ruin - Skyclad (Youtube link) Links to all the books and papers referenced in this show are available on the ChinaTalk substack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

林宏文是《晶片島上的光芒》一書的作者,這本書深入探討了台積電的歷史、管理方法和國際角色。作為台灣最資深的半導體記者之一、林宏文以其三十多年的行業經驗,為讀者呈現了一個全面而生動的台灣半導體產業發展故事。 訪談中、主要討論了以下幾個關鍵話題: 台積電的創立背景及其在全球半導體產業中的獨特定位 台灣政府在推動半導體產業發展中的角色,特別是工研院和科學園區的貢獻 台積電的管理模式,包括研發與製造部門的平衡以及人才培養策略 台灣半導體產業的國際競爭力,尤其是與三星等競爭對手的比較 台積電在全球地緣政治中的角色,以及"矽盾"這一概念的由來和影響 AI時代對半導體產業的影響,特別是對記憶體和邏輯晶片整合的需求 台灣與美國在看待國際關係上的差異,以及這種差異對台灣國際戰略的影響 Special thanks to the host of this interview, Arrian Ebrahimi of the Chip Capitols substack. Cohosted by ChinaTalk editors Nicholas Welch and Lily Ottinger.  Outtro music: Right Here Waiting, by Richard Marx. Youtube Link. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome back to part two of our interview with Yasheng Huang 黄亚生, the author of The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline. We cover a lot of ground in this two-hour installment. During the first hour, we discuss… The aspects of imperial China’s governance Mao chose to embrace, and those he chose to abandon, The factors enabling Mao’s radical policies compared to imperial rulers, Why China was able to grow so much faster than India, despite the setbacks of the Cultural Revolution, Statistical approaches for evaluating the effectiveness of autocratic development models, China’s economic reforms and rural development policies in the 1980s, How the events of 1989 permanently altered China’s trajectory, Whether the rise of Xi Jinping was inevitable, In the second hour, we discuss... The Steelman case for why China needed a leader like Xi Jinping, What sets Xi apart from his predecessors, Succession challenges and the importance of term limits in authoritarian states, Why engagement with China failed to produce political liberalization, How the US could have better leveraged economic relations with China, Creative approaches to human rights advocacy in China. Outro music: Nothing to My Name (一无所有) by Cui Jian (崔健) (Youtube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Yasheng Huang 黄亚生 is the author of one of the decade’s greatest books about China — The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline. It’s a rich book, a product of a career of reflections, with each page delivering something novel and provocative. In this first half of our two-part interview, we discuss… How the imperial examination system (known as keju) shaped Chinese governance, culture, and society, Why autocratic Chinese dynasties benefitted from a meritocratic bureaucracy, Statistical methods for analyzing social mobility in imperial China, How the keju system survived the Mongol conquest, What the tradeoffs in the imperial exam system can teach us about the future economic prospects of China and Taiwan. Co-hosting today is Ilari Mäkelä, host of the On Humans podcast.  NOTES (Courtesy of Ilari) A Rough Timeline of Chinese history: Pre–221 BCE: Disunity (e.g. Warring States)  221 BCE – 220: Unity (Qin & Han dynasties) 220 – 581: Disunity (“Han-Sui Interregnum”) 581 – 1911: Unity (Sui, Tang, Song, Yuan, Ming, and Qing Dynasties) Historical figures Emperor Wanli 萬曆帝 | Shen Kuo 沈括 (polymath) | Zhu Xi 朱熹 (classical philosopher) | Hong Xiuquan 洪秀全 (leader of the Taiping Rebellion) | Yuan Shikai 袁世凯 (military leader) | Chiang Kai-shek 蔣介石 (military leader and statesman) Modern scholars Ping-ti Ho 何炳棣 (historian) | Clair Yang (economist) | Joseph Needham (scientist and historian) | Daron Acemoglu | James Robinson Historical terms Keju civil service exams | Taiping Rebellion REFERENCES A lot of the original data discussed in the episode is original from Huang’s book. As an exception, Huang references his co-authored article on civil service exams and imperial stability, written with Clair Yang. Outtro music: 等着你回来 by 白光, a 1930s Shanghai starlet https://open.spotify.com/track/0aHMT9dIdPDz094fc37Xq0?si=d1591ff2339d421c Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To discuss America’s comparative advantages in national competition and the structural forces that drive (and limit) innovation, ChinaTalk interviewed Kumar Garg.  Formerly an Obama official in the Office of Science and Technology Policy, Kumar spent several years at Schmidt Futures focusing on science and technology philanthropy. He has been a mentor and cheerleader for ChinaTalk over the years, and he is the president of the newly established Renaissance Philanthropy. We discuss: The inspiration behind Renaissance Philanthropy and its focus on mid-scale, field-transforming ideas Strategies for identifying underexplored, high-impact projects — including weather forecasting, carbon sequestration, and datasets on neurocognition Structural challenges for R&D funding at the level of government and universities The role of focused research organizations like OpenAI in accelerating progress and understanding long-term drivers of productivity A wide angle-view of US-China competition and strategic innovation The underresearched importance of alliance management. Outtro music: Song 1 - If ye love me - Thomas Tallis and the Cambridge Singers (Youtube Link) Song 2 - Recercare (I) - Francesco Spinacino and Robert Meunier (Youtube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Michael Collins is the acting chair of the National Intelligence Council (NIC). He has spent 28 years in the intelligence community, starting as a career analyst in the CIA focused on East Asia before moving into leadership roles. He served as chief of staff for the CIA deputy director and worked on modernization efforts in the agency. We discuss… How the intelligence community informs high-level policymaking, Why different institutional approaches are needed to collect intelligence on non-state actors vs nation-state adversaries, Challenges in assessing China’s technological and military capabilities, “Narrative Intelligence” and areas where intelligence agencies have a unique edge, Strategies for improving long-term forecasting and avoiding groupthink. Outro music: Scorpions - Wind Of Change (Youtube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To discuss the post-election future of US competition policy, ChinaTalk interviewed Peter Harrell and Nazak Nikakhtar. Nazak served in the Trump administration after a long career as a civil servant, where she was instrumental in shaping the Commerce Department’s work on China, first at the International Trade Administration and later leading the Bureau of Industry and Security. Peter worked in the Biden administration on the National Economic Council and National Security Council, focusing on international economics, export controls, and investment restrictions. We discuss… The role of the executive in setting the industrial policy agenda Leadership shortcomings in the Biden and Trump administrations Competition with China — bipartisan consensus, bureaucratic inertia, and strategies to stop wasting time. Advice for America’s next president, from export controls to pharmaceutical decoupling and alliance management Creative approaches to supply chain resilience This is 2023 CSET report Jordan referenced (See the “Understanding the Intangibles section) Outtro Music: Jun Mayuzumi - Black Room (Youtube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jeffrey Ding is a professor at George Washington University, leading US scholar on China’s AI, and the creator of the ChinAI Substack. In honor of the publication of his new book, Technology and the Rise of Great Powers, enjoy this interview with Jeff from the ChinaTalk archives. Jeff Ding argues in a 2023 paper that great powers must harness general-purpose technologies if they want to achieve global dominance. That is, diffusion capacity (not just innovation capacity) is critical to economic growth — and China actually fares much worse in diffusion capacity than mainstream narratives imply. In this show, we discuss the historical underpinnings of that argument and apply it to AI today — drawing out policymaking lessons spanning centuries of technologically driven great power transitions. We also get into: Why long-term productivity growth is driven by the diffusion of general-purpose technology, and what makes this so crucial for great power competition; Historical lessons from the UK, Soviet Union, US, and Germany illustrating the cultural and policy roadblocks to tech diffusion; The importance of decentralized systems, and how this helped America win the Cold War Why China’s diffusion capacity lags behind its innovation capacity, and how America should avoid getting locked into any one technological trajectory. Co-hosting is Teddy Collins, formerly of DeepMind and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. Outro music: 分享那奇沃夫/Prodby玉的单曲《亚克西》(Youtube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Thanks to The Innovation Alliance for sponsoring this episode. The Innovation Alliance is a coalition of research and development-based technology companies representing innovators, patent owners, and stakeholders who believe in the critical importance of maintaining a strong patent system that supports innovative enterprises of all sizes. To discuss the domestic and international implications of patent policy, ChinaTalk interviewed Brian Pomper. Brian was the Chief International Trade Counsel to Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, and he is now a partner at Akin Gump. We discuss: The history of America’s innovation hegemony, from the signing of the Constitution to patent trolls and Elon Musk Why big tech companies spent decades systematically attacking the foundations of the US patent system The thermonuclear patent war of Apple vs Samsung The evolution of Standard Essential Patents (SEPs) as a battleground for emerging tech competition Why China’s approach to patent litigation is causing controversy in Europe The intersection of patent policy and international trade agreements. Outtro music: Minitel Rose - Magic Powder (Youtube Link) Here's the 2-hour show on global tech standards from the ChinaTalk archives: Global Standards: What's the Deal? Spotify link, Apple Podcasts Link Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here at ChinaTalk, we break the ice on all things international relations, and today we are diving into a topic that is snow joke — icebreakers!  We interviewed William Henagan and Robert Obayda, both directors of the NSC. We discuss: How Canada, Finland, and the United States are leveling up their cooperation in the Arctic through the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort (ICE Pact);  The mechanics of industrial policy in the US government; Why cranes matter for national security, and the benefits of using carrots vs sticks; What icebreakers are for, and how Finland is punching above its weight in the NATO alliance. Co-hosting today is former ChinaTalk intern Alexander Boyd, who is currently at the China Digital Times.  Outtro music: Arctic Monkeys — A Certain Romance (link) and Mardy Bum (link) Pictured: the Russian icebreaker Yamal. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chris Kirchhoff was a founding member of the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) and previously worked in the Obama NSC. He recently published a book called Unit X: How the Pentagon and Silicon Valley Are Transforming the Future of War. He wrote: “To the extent present military and civilian leadership is articulating its strategy, it is one built, for the most part, on a continuation of previous programmatic and budgetary trendlines. If there is a strategy for losing a future war in China, this is it.” Unit X traces the evolution of the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), a group of Pentagon insurgents who are fighting to change how the DoD relates to emerging technologies. We discuss: The origin story of DIU and its early struggles to break Pentagon bureaucracy; How DIU leveraged “waiver authority” to circumvent red tape under Defense Secretary Ash Carter; Why the defense industrial base is ill-equipped to keep pace with technological change; The case for shifting more DoD spending to non-traditional tech companies; Lessons from commercial spaceflight for future AI governance, including potential issues with a “Manhattan project for AI.” Outtro music: 告五人 Accusefive - 愛人錯過 Somewhere in Time (Youtube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After decades of neoliberalism, how much can America’s bureaucrats crank the dial on effective industrial policy? Will the CHIPS Act succeed at reshoring high-tech manufacturing? Next week is the Chips Act’s second anniversary. To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Ben Schwartz, the former director for national security at the CHIPS Program Office, which manages a $39 billion grant program appropriated by the CHIPS and Science Act. We get into:  The methods and obstacles for American semiconductor policy; How CHIPS Act guardrails aim to balance economic growth and national security;  The negotiation process for companies interested in receiving CHIPS Act funding; Reshoring vs friend-shoring and the challenge of Chinese dominance in legacy chip manufacturing; Staffing and organizational structure of the CHIPS Program Office, plus the role of Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo; The challenge of collecting data on secretive semiconductor supply chains. Outtro Music: The Rolling Stones - You Can’t Always Get What You Want (Youtube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is a show about globalization, fashion design, and the future of manufacturing-based economic growth. For a breather from the election chaos, ChinaTalk interviewed Will Lasry, Montreal-based designer, manufacturing specialist, and founder of Glass Factory. Will and his team are on a mission to make manufacturing transparent. They fly all around the world making documentaries on clothing factories and playing matchmaker between designers and producers. Check out his Youtube channel here.  We discuss:  How clothes are made, including the complicated processes behind distressed denim and other trends;  What makes a country an ideal destination for manufacturing clothing, and whether rising labor costs will drive the industry out of China entirely; Xinjiang cotton, environmental destruction, and other unethical practices hanging over the fashion industry; Why Gucci and other high-end designers are betting that “Made in India” will soon be even more chic than “Made in Italy.”  Co-hosting today is longtime ChinaTalk editor Irene Zhang. Outtro music: Vinida Weng - WAIYA! (Youtube Link) Thumbnail image: Link. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What does JD think about currency, tariffs, and industrial policy? How has the Strategic Patroleum Reserve evolved into new relevance with some fun new powers over the past few years, and how can America take lessons from this success and apply them to addressing critical minerals? And what secrets of policy entrepreneurship can Arnab teach me? To discuss we have on Arnab Datta of Employ America and Matt Klein of The Overshoot podcast. Plus we get some parent corner! Outtro music: Melody by Ash Island (matched my mood of wanting to scream things I don't understand) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHWWGm0nxYk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Where is Congress on AI? How will a second Trump term impact US innovation? Does Congress have what it takes to step up and legislate in a world without Chevron? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Senator Todd Young of Indiana (R). He’s a rare breed on Capitol Hill these days: an actual legislator. Sen. Young drafted the Chips and Science Act with Sen. Schumer and is the co-author of my personal favorite bill this Congress which aims to establish an Office of Global Competition Analysis. He announced earlier this year that he would not be endorsing Trump’s candidacy this cycle. We get into… Biden’s woes The case for an office of tech net assessment The future of tech legislation post-Chevron The Senate’s AI Policy Roadmap and where the GOP is on AI regulation Chinese espionage and high-skill immigration policy Outtro music: AC/DC - Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap (Youtube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How can Shakespeare help explain the dynamics we're seeing around Biden today? We get into King Lear, Richard II, Macbeth and Coriolanus to illustrate themes on conniving courtiers, political marriages, and politicians facing the end. Joining us today: Eliot Cohen, author of The Hollow Crown, two dramaturgs Drew Lichtenberg and Kate Pitt, as well as actor Phil Schneider. Kate's substack: https://shakespearenews.substack.com/ Phil's still looking for an agent! Reach out to me jordan@chinatalk.media to connect with him! Outtro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEqnXNsAFL8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What will it take for the US to remain competitive in 21st-century technologies? Is high state capacity a thing of the past? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed David Lin, Abigail Kukura, and Venkat Somala from the Special Competitive Studies Project. SCSP’s new report outlines exactly how America should compete in the tech-powered future of geopolitics.  We get into… The role of public-private research partnerships and SCSP’s relationship with the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence; A strategy for upgrading US institutions with the help of emerging technologies like AI; The historical decline of government-backed research in the US; China’s industrial espionage and the potential for stolen innovations to consolidate authoritarianism across the globe; Bureaucratic moonshots and techniques for communicating urgency to the slow-moving American polity. Our past episode on tech net assessment: Crafting A National Tech Strategy and Reviving Net Tech Assesment (Spotify Link) (Apple Podcasts Link) Our past episode on bureaucratic moonshots: Peter Harrell on Bureaucratic Barriers to Competition (Spotify Link) (Apple Podcasts Link) Outtro music: SadSvit - Касета (Youtube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How could AI change the global balance of power? What could the US and allies do to preserve national moats? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed the CEO of Scale AI, Alex Wang. In a blog post announcing Scale’s $1 billion fundraising success, Alex wrote that Scale is aiming to grow into the world's data foundry for AI. Alex grew up in Los Alamos, New Mexico, with two physicist parents who worked in the national labs, and he started Scale in college. I am particularly excited to have Alex on the show because he is perhaps the only private-sector AI leader working with the DoD and thinking seriously about the national security implications of AI. We discuss: The three key factors limiting rapid AGI takeoff, and how quickly these barriers will be overcome; China’s strengths and weaknesses in the race for AGI; National security implications for winning (or losing) the AI race; Prospects for AI net assessment and the case for a Manhattan project for data; Methods to prevent AI espionage without kneecapping innovation or profiling immigrants. Outtro music: Zach Bryan - Pink Skies (Youtube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is Cold War II upon us? What should America do to prevent it from becoming a hot war?  To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Dmitri Alperovitch. Dmitri emigrated from Russia in 1994 at age 13. He co-founded the leading cybersecurity startup Crowdstrike, and has spent the past four years running his new think tank, the Silverado Policy Accelerator.  He's also the author of the new book World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century.  We discuss: Lessons from Cold War crises that almost went nuclear; Underappreciated parallels between the Soviet Union and China today; Groupthink in Washington as well as in Silicon Valley; What a productive economic relationship with China would look like given national security concerns; Some bold military and diplomatic recommendations for Taiwan; … and more! Work with Matt at Open Philanthropy: Clickable link, URL: https://jobs.ashbyhq.com/openphilanthropy/f33460e1-e092-46ae-918a-85338ffad9a3 Kennedy's speech to the American people regarding the Berlin Wall: JFK Library. Outtro music: Leningradskie mosty from 1957 USSR Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jake Newby is the author of Concrete Avalanche, a free newsletter about music from China. Today, he's here to play you some of his favorite tracks from 2024 thus far — including everything from psychedelic rock to rare Uyghur folk, and from Beijing kawaii core to Tibetan Buddhist chants mixed with footwork. 00:00:00 'Narcissus' Death' — Backspace (read more) 00:05:38 '红喷泉' — Pepper Heart (read more) 00:09:35 'Mail from the River' (live) — Wang Wen (read more) 00:15:30 '她的力量来自海洋' — Yang Haisong & Wang Xiaofeng (read more) 00:22:32 'Ollie' — 西红、CNdY (read more) 00:26:43 'Lost in Bamboos' — Cola Ren (read more) 00:30:38 'Southern Shanghai' — Voision Xi (read more) 00:34:20 'Liquid' — Duck Fight Goose (read more) 00:36:54 '玉林敬酒歌‘ — Run Run Run (read more) 00:40:35 'Mountains in Yukashima' — Birdstriking (read more) 00:45:38 'SonicBaby' — XIAOWANG (read more) 00:48:25 'My Vagina' — Fakeorgasm (read more) 00:50:25 'Mantra of Vajra Armour' — Howie Lee (read more) 00:54:08 'Bash Bayawan Muqam' — Mekit Dolan Muqam Group (read more) 00:59:13 'Μῆνιν ἄειδε, θεὰ παραμαινομένη ἐμοῦ...' — Ὁπλίτης (read more) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Are politicians and actors two sides of the same coin? Can you become a better public speaker by studying soliloquies? What can Shakespeare teach us about the nature of power? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Eliot Cohen: SAIS professor, military historian, and counselor to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. He is also the author of The Hollow Crown: Shakespeare on How Leaders Rise, Rule, and Fall.  Co-hosting is Jordan’s little brother, actor Phil Schneider. He recently graduated from Yale where he starred in a production of Hamlet. He’s played Romeo, Octavius Valentine, Richard II, and Leontes. Also, he’s looking for a new agent — reach out at jordan@chinatalk.media! They discuss:  Royal/executive power — what getting it does to you, and why relinquishing it is so hard; Court intrigues of yore (and today); Timeless techniques for exhorting and manipulating the masses; What makes a great speech; What it really means to be an effective leader, and how great leaders know when it's time to quit. Nixon's Farewell speech: Youtube link. Outtro audio: Orson Welles Recounts Crossing Paths With Hitler And Churchill. Youtube link. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

One does not simply invade Taiwan — but George Marshall once thought long and hard about it. In 1944, in the middle of the island-hopping campaign, American war planners set their sights on Japanese-controlled Formosa. What did the American invasion plan look like? Why did Marshall decide to go another route? What lessons do this and other amphibious invasions hold for Taiwan’s current force posture? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed US Army Field Artillery Lieutenant Colonel J. Kevin McKittrick, currently at the Air War College in Alabama and a veteran of multiple deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan. Co-hosting today is our resident Taiwan consultant Nicholas Welch. We discuss: The US military’s aborted plan to invade Taiwan during WWII; Why bigger is better when it comes to amphibious assaults; What the US got right and the CCP gets wrong about civil-military relations; Taiwan’s defense concept, and the opportunities presented by “operational pause”; The awful, unending relevance of traditional artillery in modern war; And why the US doesn’t need its own “rocket force” … yet. Outtro music: 被動 (Passive) by 伍佰 Wu Bai&China Blue. Youtube Link. Photo: White House, July 29, 1942. Left to right: Admiral Ernest King, Admiral William Leahy, and General George Marshall. | Wikimedia Commons Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Taiwan’s government agencies are battered by 5 million cyberattacks every day. China is holding invasion drills at a replica of Taiwan’s presidential palace in Inner Mongolia. Last week, the PLA openly rehearsed an encirclement of Taiwan in so-called “punishment drills.” What happened to deterrence in the Taiwan Strait? Can the status quo be saved? To discuss strategies for avoiding WWIII, ChinaTalk interviewed Jared McKinney of the Air War College and Peter Harris of Colorado State University, who recently co-authored a monograph entitled, “Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait.” Co-hosting today is ChinaTalk’s resident Taiwan consultant, Nicholas Welch. We discuss… Evidence of deterrence decay in the status quo; The difference between constraints and restraints, and how they fit together to form a lattice of successful deterrence; Whether symbolic solidarity with Taiwan does more harm than good; The values and costs of strategic ambiguity; How Taiwan can optimize its deterrence posture; Lessons from the dance of death between Iran and Israel; Objective factors for measuring invasion risk, and whether the world should be scared about 2027; How to analyze decision trees for fundamentally irrational decisions; ... and more! Outtro music: MJ116, 辣台妹 (HOT CHICK) - Official music video: MJ116【辣台妹 HOT CHICK】- (youtube link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Good AI is good and bad AI is bad, but how do lawmakers tell the difference? Will AI bring the world together or balkanize the internet beyond repair? Why do governments even need cloud computing anyway? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Pablo Chavez, a fellow at CNAS and former Vice President of Google Cloud's Public Policy division, as well as the inestimable investing tycoon Kevin Xu. Xu, formerly of GitHub, is the founder of Interconnected, a bilingual newsletter on the intersections of tech, business, investing, geopolitics, and US-Asia relations. In this interview, we discuss: The digital sovereignty movement and the lessons we can learn from China's Great Firewall; The value and risks of open source architecture in the future of AI governance; Meta’s long history of open source and how Llama fits into that strategy; The geopolitical and cultural forces driving nations to pursue their own AI strategies; The viability of sovereign AI initiatives in the face of global tech giants. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nathan Lambert of the Interconnects substack and Allen Institute joins for a roundup where we get into: What DC should understand about the Bay Area AI engineer psyche What GPT4o and Google's AI Dev Day mean for the future of AI OpenAI's model spec, and exit, voice, and loyalty in the leading labs Outtro music: Scarlett Johansson's The Moon Song Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We're taking one out of the archives! Douglas Irwin is a Dartmouth professor and the author of Clashing Over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy. On this episode, Irwin provides an overview to the history of U.S. trade policy from the 18th century to the modern day, highlighting significant legislation as well as the formation of important intergovernmental organizations that have sprung up along the way. Outro Music: Janis Joplin, Mercedes Benz 19:53: On the flawed logic behind the Tariff Act of 1930, and the parallels with similarly problematic thinking in the modern day: “There’s absolutely a parallel there because some Democrats in Congress said, ‘You know, we ought to really think about this carefully, and not just our domestic interest but also our export interests, and other countries might retaliate.’ And basically, the reaction of most members of Congress was, Republicans at the time, ‘No, we don’t have to worry about that. This is a domestic piece of legislation, it doesn’t really concern other countries. They’re not going to retaliate.’ And, of course, they did.” 39:40: Doug discusses the tips and tricks behind one example of “tariff engineering”: “The tariffs applied to motorcycles with piston displacements of 700cc and above. What Honda started doing is producing a 699cc version. Now the difference [between the two] is imperceptible, but just by changing that one cubic centimeter, it changed the whole tariff treatment and you avoided a 45 percent tariff and were assessed at a much, much lower rate.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Brad Setser of CFR talks Biden's new tariffs! Earlier podcast deep dive on Chinese EV policy: ChinaTalk: Why Chinese EVs Will Take Over the World on Apple Podcasts Earlier podcast on the deep history of US trade policy: ChinaTalk: Tarriffs, taxes, and trade: Doug Irwin on ChinaEconTalk on Apple Podcasts Brad's paper: Power and Financial Interdependence (ifri.org) Outtro Music: Golden Earring's Radar Love Here's a fun playlist on the best car songs: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/6l0sSAdFwyCH1yzQX2IrKQ?si=fb3b8fdd29644631 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Charles Clancy is the CTO of MITRE, an American not-for-profit organization managing federally funded research and development centers (FFRDCs) supporting various US government agencies in defense, healthcare, national security, and cybersecurity fields, among others. In this interview, we discuss: What is MITRE and how does it support national science & technology strategy How China threatens America’s infrastructure and university R&D The cyber workforce gap and how AI could fill it Finding mission-driven work for highly skilled technologists How the ecosystem of S&T and R&D funding evolved through the 20th century to today Outtro music: Yung Bae, Magic Yung Bae - Magic (youtube.com) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

TSMC is taking on Arizona. How's it going? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Viola Zhou, journalist at Rest of World. She has published pieces on Foxconn's quest to make iPhones in India and most recently, a gripping feature about the cultural challenges that TSMC is facing trying to manufacture semiconductors in the USA. Throughout her story, we get a peek into a world of rigid hierarchies, American workers who are slow on the uptake, and culture clash over pornographic desktop flair.  Today’s interview discusses: Sleuthing techniques for independent journalism; The challenges faced by Taiwanese semiconductor engineers relocating to Arizona; TSMC’s management style and the complaints raised by new American employees; The similarities and differences between TSMC’s expansion to the USA and Foxconn’s expansion to India; Whether adapting to American work culture will tank the prospects of the new Phoenix Fab. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

India’s elections are underway! What does the future hold for the world’s largest democracy? Will the election results impact India-China relations? What about India-US relations? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Dr. Raja Mohan, Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore. Co-hosting today is James Crabtree, author of The Billionaire Raj. We get into: What the border disputes between China and India can tell us about the political economy of the two nations; The anti-imperial history that frames India-China relations; Modi’s election prospects and India’s spirit of democracy; What score Biden’s diplomatic team has earned in Southeast Asia; Criticisms of Modi and accusations of democratic backsliding; Opportinities for friction in the US-India relationship, including Trump tariffs, immigration, and Russia; Whether the US is making a “bad bet” on India, and how India is prepared to involve itself during an invasion of Taiwan. Outtro Music: Jhoome Jo Pathaan Vishal-Shekhar, Arijit Singh, Sukriti Kakar, Vishal Dadlani, Shekhar Ravjiani, Kumaar https://open.spotify.com/track/6FAYpZ4jve8vpvTwUvjK6H?si=66c7c984fd52497cs 12 Bande 12 Bande - song and lyrics by Varinder Brar | Spotify Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The DOJ is now charged with protecting American data from foreign adversaries. This new proposed rule they recently issued is, according to one observer, “one of the most ambitious and sweeping new initiatives in national security law over the past few years.” To discuss, we interviewed Devin DeBacker and Lee Licata of the Department of Justice’s National Security Division. We get into: How adversaries plan to weaponize obscure data types — including geolocation data, DNA sequencing, and undersea cable transmissions; How China managed to purchase genomic data on millions of Americans through healthcare investments; Why black box data brokers keep records of who goes to casinos; How the DOJ plans to protect your data, and whether their plans can be thwarted by gridlock in Congress. I’m excited to introduce a partnership with Policyware to bring affordable, expert-driven policy education to my audience. Starting May 14, Samm Sacks will be teaching a deep dive into China’s Digital Governance and its Global Implications. Samm is an old friend of mine and a Senior Fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center. She is a leading expert on China’s cybersecurity legal system, the U.S.-China technology relationship, and the geopolitics of data privacy and cross-border data flows. Check out below a show I did with Samm on ChinaTalk discussing China’s digital governance. You’ll learn over several weeks as Samm delivers live classes, with options to listen on your own time. Policyware Deep Dives are designed to be attended alongside your job, and they will help you organize with your employer for cost sharing. Check out the show we did together on data issues late last year. Help support ChinaTalk by registering for the deep dive here and thank you to Policyware for sponsoring today’s episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ryan Takeshita is the Chief Global Editor at PIVOT, a new media outlet in Japan focused on the emerging startup scene. We get into: A stroll through recent economic history leading to today's 'boom times' Why more people are looking to leave traditional occupations for insurgent firms Challenges around demographics and immigration Outtro Music: Idol by Yaosobi https://open.spotify.com/track/1hAloWiinXLPQUJxrJReb1?si=36552bdc34cb4a73 Matsuri No Genzo by Hideo Shiraki and 3 Koto Girls https://open.spotify.com/track/6eTteH1zyZeQKZ2Mu7VC5d?si=230b3d1739d5417e Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To learn about Japan’s new economic national security policy, export controls, chip policy, lessons from history, and even space policy, we interviewed Kazuto Suzuki. Suzuki-san is a professor at the University of Tokyo. He serves as an advisor to Japan’s Ministry of the Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) as well as advising Japan’s space program. He served on the UN Security Council's Iran Sanctions Panel, and he also recently established the Institute of Geoeconomics at the International House of Japan.  We get into… What Japan’s new economic national security law does, and what it means for global semiconductor supply chains; The state of multilateral export controls; Nippon steel, the US election, and cooperation between East Asian democracies; Historical examples of economic coercion, from the Qing Dynasty to FDR vs imperial Japan to the Senkaku islands; Japan’s goals for space commercialization; … and more! Co-hosting today is Arrian Ebrahimi, student at Yenching academy and author of the Chip Capitols Substack. Outtro Music: Every Breath You Take/Theme from Peter Gunn as featured on the Sopranos The Sopranos - Every Breath You Take (youtube.com) Cover photo: Toyohara Kuniteru III | Illustration of the Imperial Diet House of Commons with a Listing of all Members | Japan | Meiji period (1868–1912) | The Metropolitan Museum of Art (metmuseum.org) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Just minutes after the Taiwan earthquake yesterday, Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis, Doug O'Laughlin of Fabricated Knowledge, Jon of Asianometry and yours truly had a brief hang where we got into: Intel's process progress and rocky financial road ahead Reflections out of GTC Jensen's galaxy brain Photo of the woman who saved Intel, Dr. Ann Kelleher, General Manager of Foundry Technology Development. Outtro music: YELLOW黃宣 & 9m88 - 怪天氣 Strange Weather https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1n_i0JupwRA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Straight from Tokyo, Japan: an exclusive with Amb. Rahm Emanuel. Before his current posting as US ambassador to Japan, Rahm served as a senior advisor to Bill Clinton, multiple terms in the US House of Representatives, Obama’s first chief of staff, and the mayor of Chicago. If nothing else, you can count on his gloves-off, no-holds-barred approach to politics — and he’s been no different when it comes to China. Notwithstanding reports that even officials in Biden’s NSC have told him to stop “taunting” China, Rahm has been consistently, uniquely willing to say out loud what virtually every other high-ranking US official doesn’t. Of course, the ambassador — or, as his desk placard during his chief-of-staff days read, “Undersecretary for Go Fuck Yourself” — may take issue with that framing. His comments aren’t “critical,” Rahm says, but “truthful.” This interview covers a ton of ground. On China: How the Biden administration is closing the chapter on “hub and spokes,” what tomorrow’s “latticework” architecture will look like, and what Asia-Pacific alliances might look like under a second Trump administration; The future of Japan-Korea, and a peek behind the curtain on how the historic Camp David summit materialized; Rahm’s “3 Cs” for China — calm, conflict, charm — and how US foreign-policy leaders should reckon the mutual inconsistencies among those three; And roads not taken by Xi: why Rahm thinks China’s entrepreneurial culture has taken a nosedive, and what China’s government today is most scared of. And on politics and life: Why “diplomacy” and “politics” are the same thing — and why that’s a good thing; Whether the State Department suffers from a personality deficit, and what makes for a good ambassador; How to heal America’s body politic — post-Trump, post-Recession, post-GWOT; Why Rahm thinks “quality time” with kids is “BS,” and thoughts on raising kids as a time-crunched politician; And what Rahm thinks the biggest emerging threat to the world is. I really enjoyed my trip to Japan, and I’d love a financial excuse to continue recording shows on the country. If you work at JETRO, METI, The Japan Foundation, Mitsubishi, Rakuten, etc. and are interested in seeing more deep coverage of Japan and US-China-Japan relations on this podcast, do reach out! Outtro music: Tadao Hayashi Japanese Harp Trio's 1977 take on I Could Have Danced All Night Tadao Hayashi Harp Trio – The Impossible Dream 1977 (youtube.com) Also from 1977, Tokai by Kaeko Onuki Tokai (youtube.com) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Biotech. What is it? Why should you care? Does biotech really matter for national security? What are China’s biotech ambitions? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Jason Kelly, the Chair and Vice Chair of the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology. Jason is the Co-Founder and CEO of Ginkgo Bioworks, a publicly traded firm that provides a horizontal platform for cell programming. Michelle Rozo is currently Vice President of Technical Capabilities at In-Q-Tel, and she previously held positions in Biden’s NSC, the Department of Defense, and on the Hill. Co-hosting today is Chris “CRISPR” Miller, author of Chip War. We get into: The powerful science behind genetic engineering ; How the US government turned biotechnology into a $1 trillion industry over the course of the last fifty years; Why generative AI is destined to revolutionize synthetic biology; And whether China’s national biotech champions can leapfrog the US.  Outtro music: Suite Bergamasque: Clair de Lune, No. 3 (youtube.com) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is Congress for real this time? To discuss the US domestic politics of the dramatic rollout and broader social, national, and geopolitical implications of the House's passage of a bill that would force Bytedance to divest from TikTok US, Ben Smith of Semafor joins the podcast. Outtro music: Olivia Rodrigo - Deja Vu 【Sped Up & reverb】 (youtube.com) The Platters - Only You - Lyrics - YouTube Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How do you stand up an effective national AI project? Is the world prepared for the Reformation-level societal change AI could bring? Matt Clifford, according to Politico Britain’s most powerful tech adviser, joins ChinaTalk to discuss! He served as Prime Minister Sunak's sherpa for the UK AI Summit, chairs ARIA, the UK's answer to DARPA, and co-founded Entrepreneur First, a startup incubator with a strong presence throughout Europe and Southeast Asia.  We get into: Tech Diplomacy & the UK AI Safety Summit: How countries are waking up to the watershed moment at the advent of powerful new AI, and the surprising commonalities in China’s perspectives on AI safety.  Organizational Design at ARIA: What are the challenges creating a world-class science project in government? How can you attract the best people and create the right organizational culture for success? Open Source AI and the Global AI Race — How should we evaluate the approaches to AI across different countries and private actors? What’s the verdict on open source models? Preparing for monumental changes — and why history cautions against expecting business as usual, and how fiction can open our mind to the possibilities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chinese Doomscroll, which faithfully records happenings from the wild west that is Weibo (China’s Twitter/X equivalent), won the ChinaTalk award for best China-focussed Substack on 2023. Today we have on the brain behind the newsletter: Molly, who’s been doomscrolling for us since early 2023. We discuss: Why Weibo keeps Molly up at night; Chinese elementary school kids’ academic prowess; How social issues gain attention on the trending list; Terrible bots; And what makes microblogging uniquely compelling. Outtro music is 演员 by Joker Xue 薛之谦: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKuL5xaKZHM Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How can AI change diplomacy? To discuss the State Department’s options for AI integration, we interviewed the State Department's Deputy Chief Data and AI Officer, Garrett Berntsen. He served as an officer during two tours in Afghanistan and recently rotated off the NSC. He's optimistic diplomacy can be more effective with comprehensive, timely, and accurate data-driven analysis, and that AI will be part of achieving that mission. We get into: How AI can streamline bureaucratic busy work The value of data-driven negotiation prep in diplomatic contexts The benefits of transparency in a democratic society What level of risk is appropriate for the civil service How close he is to getting ChatGPT into State The balance between transparency and secrecy in the age of big data How the Snowden leaks changed the State Department’s relationship with technology What the State Department can and can't import from the private sector Thanks to the Hudson Institute and Andrew Marshall Foundation for supporting this podcast. Outtro music: 國蛋 GorDoN - White Noise ft. 蛋堡 Soft Lipa https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31ZM440owzw Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Why can India design chips with the best of them but has completely failed to develop fabs, much less a broader electronics industry? To discuss, I have on Pranay Kotasthane, former chip designer at TI and Qualcomm who now works at the Takshashila Institution and is the author of the new book When the Chips are Down. Chris Miller of Chip War cohosts. We get into: How the political economy of technology in India led to world class software and services but underwhelming manufacturing Why India was slower to the uptake than China that socialism really sucks at getting your country rich What it takes to design a chip. Outtro music: Ye Jo Des Hai Tera https://youtu.be/4tiVPuLbbHg?feature=shared Image: spectacular Mughal painting of an elephant currently on at the Met. that I prompted with semiconductor alot https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/825607?pkgids=906 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What does it take to train a frontier model? What's the know-how, the secret sauce that makes firms lets OpenAI and Deepmind push the limits of what's possible? How much are Chinese firms benefitting from western open source, and in the long term is it possible for western labs to maintain an edge? The hosts of the excellent Latent Space podcast, Alessio Fanelli of Decibel VC and Shawn Wang of Smol AI, come on to discuss. We get into: How the secret sauce used to push the frontier of AI diffuses out of the top labs and into substacks How labs are managing the culture change from quasi-academic outfits to places that have to ship How open source raises the global AI standard, but why there's likely to always be a gap between closed and open source China as a "GPU Poor" nation Three key algorithmic innovations that could reshape the balance of power between the GPU rich and GPU poor Outtro music: CHEKI https://open.spotify.com/track/1zKL2bOEkMDGuIjLhG34YA?si=9a713a88aa3d4f71 Cover photo: "Inkstand with A Madman Distilling His Brains" 1600s Urbino. Kind of like training a model! https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/188899 The met description: In this whimsical maiolica sculpture, a well-dressed man leans forward in his seat with his head in a covered pot set above a fiery hearth. The vessel beside the hearth almost certainly held ink. The man’s actions are explained by an inscription on the chair: "I distill my brain and am totally happy." Thus the task of the writer is equated with distillation—the process through which a liquid is purified by heating and cooling, extracting its essence. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Matt Pottinger reported for years out of China, served as a US Marine Corps intelligence officer in Iraq and Afghanistan, and held several senior roles on Trump's NSC , concluding his time in the White House as the Deputy National Security Advisor. Today, Matt chairs the China Program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. In this interview, we discuss: How Matt expects a second Trump administration’s China policy might develop. Why Trump is leaning more into strategic ambiguity than Biden, what that means for deterrence, and how that impacts the likelihood of him standing by were the PRC to invade Taiwan. Why bipartisan support for the US-China trade war will continue to shape the contours of great-power conflict. Matt’s look at the origins and political fallout of COVID-19. Plus, reflections on Mike Flynn and how Trump ran his NSC.  SUBSCRIBE TO THE NEWSLETTER! https://www.chinatalk.media/ Outtro music: Miles Davis, So What https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylXk1LBvIqU Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Heart attacks, prostate cancer, Jake Sullivan awake for a home invasion attempt at 4 AM because he was just up working on a random Tuesday night? Is the national security bureaucracy in America unwell? To discuss, I have on today John Gans, a former Pentagon speechwriter, who’s had many, many other jobs in Washington. He is also the author of the fantastic “White House Warriors,” a history of the National Security Council.   We get into: Why the organizational design of the NSC leads to such crushing burdens for midlevel and senior staffers The kinds of high-flyers that are drawn to the national security complex and what keeps them there How POTUS’s time constraints impact decision-making Why NSC’s historically are excellent at spotting problems but often overeager when crafting solutions The NSC’s role in America’s “forever wars.” Roosevelt, Kennedy, Nixon, and Trump’s “maverick model” of running the NSC compared to the Eisenhower vision of “regular order” How seemingly prosaic technological innovations like track changes and video conferencing have dramatically changed national security policymaking How reading Shakespeare can improve the quality of our policy-making What a better model could look like Illustration from the New Yorker's recent feature on Sullivan. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/16/trial-by-combat Outtro audio from Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kharis Templeman, research fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, returns to ChinaTalk to break down the recent Taiwan elections, held on January 13. We discuss: The lack of surprises in the election results, the subdued vibes during the campaign, and contrasts between local perspectives and foreign media narratives. Why the KMT failed to win the presidency, notwithstanding voter dissatisfaction with the DPP. China’s surprisingly muted response to the election, and how it may reassess its cross-Strait policies given a third DPP president. The new composition of the Legislative Yuan, and the strategic position of the Taiwan People’s Party as gatekeeper. Observations from Kharis’s time in Taiwan during the election season, and the gift of Taiwan’s democratic process. Outro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epwlWDCCevY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How did the US Navy evolve over the first half of the 20th century from a bunch of unschooled violent sailors who couldn't shoot straight to the world's largest and most technologically advanced fighting force? What lessons around organizational design can we learn from this transformation? Trent Hone, author of Learning War and Mastering the Art of Command, joins to discuss. Outtro Music: A selection from Brahms' 3rd Symphony, apparently Adm. Nimitz's favorite https://open.spotify.com/track/3T9xcTbS2E3epbncsMwkNC?si=296e316488c841d5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How did Lai win, what does China think, and what’s at stake for the DPP? ChinaTalk editor Nicholas Welch reads his latest recap of the 2024 Taiwan elections: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/taiwan-election-results-how-lai-won Subscribe to the newsletter! https://www.chinatalk.media Outro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JV9ayVWYr8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Should AI be more open or closed? What does it mean to be open, anyway? And can France overtake China in AI?? Today I'm running a crossover episode with the Retort AI, hosted by AI Ethicist Tom Gilbert and Nathan Lambert who writes the fantastic https://www.interconnects.ai/ newsletter covering technological advancements in machine learning. Outtro Music: Bela Fleck et al, Bahar https://open.spotify.com/track/4D1ne3QFCBtUU2xFnoTir4?si=aeef1aefc6e047c6 Cover photo is a Midjourney a riff off of this very cool Derian portrait showing in the MET till Jan 21 https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/846896?pkgids=884 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

New year, new PilotTalk! Ben Smith, editor-in-chief of Semafor, joins Jordan and editor Irene to watch Chinese and Taiwanese TV shows. Ben’s favorite genre is crime and police dramas, and we cover the following new-ish releases: A Date With The Future 照亮你 (2023, mainland): Romance where a firefighter falls in love with a journalist! **Ordinary Greatness** 警察荣誉 (2022, mainland): Sitcom about a local police station. The World Between Us 我們與惡的距離 (2019, Taiwan): Acclaimed miniseries set in the aftermath of a mass shooting, addressing media sensationalism, treatment of the mentally ill, and the death penalty. Outtro music: Kiss Me by Taiwanese artist Karencici https://open.spotify.com/track/7HZmJLWtISxYnoBqwx04bw?si=896165f1b52a4aa0 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Margaret Palmieri is the Deputy Chief Digital Artificial Intelligence Officer. I had her on to dicusss: Innovation vs diffusion in the DoD context Data issues making her life difficult How CDAO sources and tests ideas for implementing AI into different corners of the kill chain Thanks to the Andrew Marshall Foundation and the Hudson Institute’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology for bringing you this episode. Outtro music: SCIENTISTS & ENGINEERS Andre 3k, Killer Mike, Future, Erykah Badu https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kU0SmxKucCw Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jake Newby of the substack Concrete Avalanche with an end of year ChinaTalk takeover! Here's his accompanying year in review post https://jakenewby.substack.com/p/2023-in-review?utm_source=activity_item Tracklist: Intro: 'Lost in China' (excerpt) – Tation 天声 (self-released) This 'postmodernist rock band from Tibet' produced some of their best work to date on the remarkable Illusions of the New Era EP. ‘Wen’s Woozy Wrap’ – Pu Poo Platter (fRUITYSHOP) Key cut from Brooklyn-formed Chinese funk group’s debut LP. ‘Greedysleeper’ – A Wordless Orange 沉默橙 (Taihe) Young Wuhan group deliver soulful pop-rock on one of the year’s best albums. ‘Watch the Crown’ – BoomHan 包涵 (Seafood Market Records) A sample of the 17-year-old Changsha rap prodigy’s impressive flow, from his debut album Gravediggaz. ‘Umbrella’ (featuring J-Fever) – PO8 (Tildawn Music) Not a Rihanna cover. Chengdu rapper toys with Shanghai jazz sounds. ‘Rap’ – ZhiYu Xia 夏之禹 (Mintone Records) Sichuan-born rapper, dubbed ‘the Jia Zhangke of hip hop’, dissects how he fell in love with the genre. ‘Where’s Tommy?’ – Hualun 花伦 (bié Records) intriguing change of direction from the ambient soundtrack masters. ‘Specter’ – The Fallacy 疯医 (Modern Sky) Brilliant return to form from Henan post-punks enlivened by new recruit Li Zenghui, who also played sax with Black Midi earlier this year ‘Cliff’ – The river, Orchestration, Walkman! 河边走 (self-released) Short sharp burst of bewildering brassy brilliance from one of the best new bands to emerge in 2023. ‘Vanished Instant’ – A Fishy Tale 有话 (Qiii Snacks Records) Another young band with a psychedelic sound; recorded during a trip to a Zhejiang mountain village. ‘East Yunnan Hallucinations’ – Instinkto Industrio 本能事业 (Maybe Mars) Folksy rhythms mix with techno-dystopian lyrics on one of 2023’s most characterful records.  ‘Standing in the Wind’ – Zhaoze 沼泽 (self-released) Guangdong guqin-driven post-rock outfit’s new album is one of their best. ‘Station 2020’ – Wu Zhuoling 吴卓玲 (self-released) The leading lady of alternative Chengdu music serves up an immersive ambient tune. ‘The Little Assassin Who Lives Beside the Sea Becomes and Environmentalist’ – Li Daiguo 李带菓 (Beihesan) The Dali-based artist had a productive year; this beautiful number was among the highlights. ‘Daididau’ (excerpt) – Mamer (Old Heaven Books) A too-short taste of a 7-minute long improvised piece on traditional Kazakh instrument the sherter from musical genius Mamer. ‘Four Seasons’ – Hugjiltu (self-released) An emotive folk number from an album featuring ‘collaborations’ with tapes of the Mongolian musician’s late father. ‘Harbour for Bias’ – Louzhang 楼长 (Jyugam) An alt-ambient highlight from a strong year for this offbeat Guangdong electronic label. ‘Snoring in the Valley’ – Howie Lee (self-released) Quirky electronic music from the renowned producer, quietly slipped out at the start of the year. ‘Solaris’ – Zhang Weiwei 张玮玮 (self-released) Chinese folk grandee swaps his accordion for a synth to interesting effect on his first album in over a decade. ‘I Want An Earth’ – Yu Su (pinchy&friends) Title track from the celebrated producer’s impressive EP of clever, beguiling electronic sounds. ‘Holes of Time’ – 33EMYBW (SVBKVLT) A typically idiosyncratic slice of avant club music from one of China’s leading producers. ‘The Forest That Hears’ – Laughing Ears (self-released) A welcome return from one of the country’s most interesting electronic music artists. ‘W.C.’ (Liars remix) – otay:onii (No Gold) Acclaimed artist Angus Andrew adds a new dimension to otay:onii’s weirdness after bié Records released her third LP in March. ‘Ἀντὶ θεῶν’ – Ὁπλίτης (self-released) Incredible one-man-band creating blistering metal tunes examining Chinese social issues. In Greek, obviously. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

80 episodes and 145 newsletters later, we've made it through my first year working on ChinaTalk full time. Editor Ryan Hauser hosts a review episode where we reflect on the past year, get into my production function, what I think the point of all of this is, and how I expect to evolve ChinaTalk in 2024. Please get in touch! I'm at jordan@chinatalk.media Here's my cause exploration essay: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/E2BghQq9pwPgtHgiH/war-between-the-us-and-china-a-case-study-for-epistemic Outtro music: Gurrumul, Bayini https://open.spotify.com/track/1XZ9HxC4MiMUUNQ7WKFucM?si=a40c4dfdd71c428e Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Brad Setser, fellow at CFR who spent a year during the Biden Administration in USTR, joins ChinaTalk to discuss: China's long term growth trajectory and implications for national power Zambia debt negotiations and Argentina's dollarization When strategic trade policy can make sense Panda export controls Sign up here for international intrigue! https://www.internationalintrigue.io/?utm_source=chinatalk&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=1223 Kyla Scanlon of the https://kyla.substack.com/ newsletter cohosts. Outtro music: I Hear a Rhapsody, Bill Evans and Jim Hall https://open.spotify.com/track/2oEvw0AfrT2fPNpEnBwVml?si=cc9f1add64034de7 Midjourney image: a panda bald eagle combined mystical animal in the style of a traditional chinese painting Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Xu of https://interconnect.substack.com/ and I run down our top five stories of the year in US-China tech. We get into: The eternal chip war The battle for AI model supremacy EV competition Venture investing in China PDD and Temu's rise TikTok's impressive resilience Here's ChinaTalk's attempt to benchmark Chinese models https://www.chinatalk.media/p/putting-chinas-top-llms-to-the-test Outtro music: two songs from my spotify wrapped which are kind of ancillary to crappy US-China relations? 2gether, Mura Masa and Gretel Ganlyn: https://open.spotify.com/track/1Wqd0R1X1tuVK9FySVyLpt?si=48a61ddf3f094b57 No Talk, Lowell: https://open.spotify.com/track/0ToOqwERQswtN1O7AveCU9?si=9424183956b74960 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Taiwanese populace will head to the polls to choose their next president on January 13, 2024 — and the three-party slate is set! To discuss, we brought on Lu Yeh-chung 盧業中 — a professor of diplomacy at National Chengchi University 國立政治大學 — and Lin Fei-fan 林飛帆, previously the Deputy-Secretary of the DPP and well-known for leading the Sunflower Student Movement in 2014. Our conversation gets into: What a three-party race means in a first-past-the-post electoral system, and how the pan-blue and pan-green camps are feeling; Why the KMT-TPP alliance broke down, and what the pan-blue side needs to do to mobilize its electorate; The KMT’s and DPP’s views on whether Taiwanese and mainland Chinese are part of the same family 兩岸一家人; What the 1992 Consensus means to the KMT and DPP, and the tensions and synergies between idealism and functionalism in Taiwanese politics; How the CCP views the upcoming election, and to what extent it really fears pro-independence activists in Taiwan; What demarcates the KMT and DPP outside of cross-Strait politics, and which domestic issues are most compelling for the average Taiwanese voter; And how the KMT and DPP balance government spending on hard military assets versus subsidizing critical technologies like semiconductors. DPP ticket: president: William Lai Ching-te 賴清德 vice president: Hsiao Bi-khim 蕭美琴 KMT ticket: president: Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜 vice president: Jaw Shaw-kong 趙少康 TPP ticket: president: Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 vice president: Cynthia Wu Hsin-ying 吳欣盈 Outro music: 回春丹- 鲜花 https://open.spotify.com/track/35XxW360SO3puJQDfuaY4r Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This was a good episode. Mike Gallagher, Chair of the Select Committee on China, has some thoughtful thoughts! We get into: How he would fix Congress Why the early Cold War is still relevant today What he took away from his time in Iraq and the Eisenhower Archives Why all you should really do to understand China is listen to ChinaTalk and read our substack (at https://www.chinatalk.media/) My book rec: https://www.amazon.com/Men-Machines-Modern-Times-Press/dp/0262529319 Outtro music, Ella Fitzgerald, My Cousin in Milwaukee https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWy9XjHt324 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rohit Krishnan of Strange Loop Canon and I kibbitz about this weekend's OpenAI drama as well as the safety and US-China regulatory dynamics likely raised in the discussions with the board. Some content we discussed: Jade Leung PhD thesis: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:ea3c7cb8-2464-45f1-a47c-c7b568f27665 Jeff Ding and Jenny Xiao's piece: https://www.governance.ai/research-paper/recent-trends-chinas-llm-landscape The Foreign Affairs piece: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/illusion-chinas-ai-prowess-regulation Image made by my mother on DALLE to represent Altman getting fired for the family groupchat. Outtro music: Happy Survival https://open.spotify.com/track/5txZKim1ruceUUhDlU84yc?si=b0d183344163418d It'l All Be Over: https://open.spotify.com/track/1KFtR58Hn1nQ9fR0DRnC9n?si=512636c8caf24610 Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Matt Turpin, China NSC Director in the Trump administration currently at Hoover and Palantir, comes on to discuss the good, the bad, and the ugly of US-China relations coming out of APEC. We get into: Realistic expectations for bilateral US-China diplomacy What are the necessary ingredients for coherent and effective policymaking What Matt expects and worries about from a second Trump administration Why foundations and corporations should sponsor ChinaTalk! Outtro music: Time/Breathe Reprise https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uw1bJrFdCjY Virtual insanity: https://open.spotify.com/track/24SUWisv2lYQiB3bVpE1sn?si=cf1cf18c0bc94ef7 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Peter Harrell, who served as Biden's Senior Director for International Economics and Competitiveness on the NSC and NEC, comes on to discuss: Why things do or don't happen in the executive branch What reforms we might need to accelerate and amplify decision-making Lessons from the sanctions response to the war in Ukraine for China Check out our newsletter at https://www.chinatalk.media. James Brown--Bewildered https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iXlDeqSTRA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Zvi Mowshowitz of Don't Worry about The Vase and Nathan Labenz of the Cognitive Revolution podcast come on for a quick recap of the past week's AI news! We get into: What AI diplomacy is looking like post-Bletchley Park What new applications OpenAI's latest announcements mean for future AI applications Outtro: Bizarrap with Milo J https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGWa-GO8mKg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This interview was so good. Jason Matheny, Biden's former top tech + national security advisor, has recently reached one year as CEO of RAND. We had a truly classic ChinaTalk-style conversation, hitting on: How to design a world-class research organization The right and wrong lessons to learn from RAND's heyday in the 1950s Existential risks around AI and bio Government's capacity to grok and implement technology strategy What national security professionals can learn from art and architecture And a ton more. Thanks to Check out the Hudson Institute's defense research center here: https://www.hudson.org/policycenters/center-defense-concepts-technology Some 1950s vibes for our outtro music: Julie London: https://open.spotify.com/track/6crfO56bDm0RjpctUuGs5X?si=5a434079b24b4d03 Doris Day: https://open.spotify.com/track/20G1XJaTwIm2IuwA3Pjg1d?si=22095e2f9aa842cc Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Biden just dropped a 50 page executive order that's going to make the world safe for AI, hopefully? To discuss the sprawling EO we've brought on three CNAS analysts, Vivek Chilukuri, Bill Drexel and Tim Fist. We touch on: Immigration and federal hiring If AI + bio can ever be a safe thing What's going to happen to cloud access What are the hoops you'll need to jump through to train GPT5 and whether they're enough What to do about open source Why Jordan just wants to be an AI czar RSVP to the Los Angeles meetup! https://partiful.com/e/SgjdajUSrD1aEOOrVgXk Outro music (yea I was not going to impose Devo on you all): The B Tune by Bela Fleck https://open.spotify.com/track/6h6vvG1t4xtfP9lkOKzBTv?si=6ec3f32629bd46a2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Jordan Schneider interviews Markus Anderling and Anton Korinek, two of the coauthors of the paper 'Frontier AI Regulation: Managing Emerging Risks to Public Safety'. They discuss the need for regulation and oversight of advanced AI models, known as frontier models, that have the potential to pose significant risks to public safety and national security. Jordan came in as a skeptic. Will he be convinced? Here's the paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.03718 Here's Markus' song choice: - -- ・ -・・ ・ ・-・・ ・- https://open.spotify.com/album/1NogWso5ElfJe4n8qKSdy9?si=mD9j5WB3TWuFGVkJRBI_Jg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Defense Minister Li Shangfu just got officially purged. To discuss, we brought on Joel Wuthnow, a fellow at NDU. His research areas include Chinese foreign and security policy, Chinese military affairs, US-China relations, and strategic developments in East Asia. He joined ChinaTalk to discuss Xi Jinping’s recent purges of high-ranking members of the People’s Liberation Army, Xi’s larger vision for the PLA, and what all this internal turmoil might mean for China’s longer-term designs on Taiwan. This was recorded earlier in October. Key insights: Over ten years after coming to power, Xi is still purging corruption from the military, reflecting his continued lack of trust in the PLA; Corruption is historically endemic in the PLA in part because of its incentive structure, which makes graft a prerequisite for rising through the ranks; Xi’s efforts to break up the PLA’s supervisory apparatus have only been partially successful (they’re still the same people even if they’re in a different department); Amid the anti-corruption shakeup, China’s Rocket Force has been successfully developing hypersonic missiles, technology viewed as critical to countering US intervention in a regional conflict over Taiwan; Despite Xi’s apparent distrust of his inner circle of military advisors, an echo chamber–induced invasion of Taiwan is still a live possibility. Joel Wuthnow is a senior research fellow with the National Defense University. Nicholas Welch cohosts. Outtro Music: The Weeknd's take on Drake's Trust Issues https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVCV6hyv7ac Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jason Furman was Obama's CEA chair and a Harvard econ professor, while Kyla is the my favorite economics influencer. We get into: What the deal is with inflation How policymaking is broken and what we need to fix it How Homer would tackle SBF Why goodreads is such a trash website Outtro music: Chocolate Snow, Inflation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9E6F8xMjoA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Two rabbis on ChinaTalk? What am I even doing? Zohar Atkins of the wonderful Meditations with Zohar podcast alongside Ari Lamm of Bnai Zion come to discuss and process the aftermath of the Oct 7th attack. Outtro music: Ishay Ribo - Seder Ha'Avoda https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECy3CMxShIQ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

BIS just released its revision to the Oct 7 2022 restrictions. Jon of Asianometry, Dylan of Semianalysis, and Doug of Fabricated Knowledge join the pod to discuss why NVIDIA got screwed, why ASML may not have, and what these regs mean for the future of China and AI. Outtro music: Warren G Regulate remix https://soundcloud.com/dj-eric-rhodes/warren-wallen-mashup-final-edit Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Israel is a country dear to my heart and I wanted to provide the ChinaTalk audience with one more perspective on the events of this past weekend before returning to our regularly scheduled program. To that end, I'm running a guest episode from the Promised Podcast, a show from TLV1 which is "an inside view of how Israel can warm your heart and make your blood boil. It’s a show by a journalist, a professor and an NGO professional who live in and love Israel even though it drives them crazy, and who each week discuss the latest in Israeli politics, culture, and society." Thanks for listening. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We discuss their experience of the past few days, China's response, its broader policy and aspirations in the Middle East, and what comes next. Our first guest is Carice Witte who is the founder and director of the SIGNAL Group. Second in the episode is Ofir Dayan, a researcher at the Israel-China Policy Center at INSS. Outtro music: World Champion, sung by family members and victims of terrorism https://youtu.be/yofkk5Vaif8?si=JskMFXK3-srR5z8L Lyrics translation: I'm a world champion in repressing Anything that scares me, anything stressful, I put on mute I'm a world champion in loving Firstly myself, then at the stage and the street The hardest is to give it to someone close I'm a world champion in not being In not solving your problems Even the pictures on the walls I wasn't the one who hanged them I'm only in charge of the melodies   I'm a world champion in falling And getting back up like a champ You'll see, like a phoenix I'm burning, but choosing every day to live on I'm a world champion in wanting At least trying You'll see, how in the end After the losses, the victory is so much sweeter I'm a world champion   I'm a world champion in justifying Weaknesses and desires The urge is an old acquaintance I know every old trick it keeps in its bag But look, someday I'll be righteous Deep down what I have is not enough, at all I'm a little rat and life is a pipe1 Falling down the hole because I can't distinguish Between good and evil, and where does it all lead to You're being all usual But soon we'll run out of fuse   I'm a world champion in falling And getting back up like a champ You'll see, like a phoenix I'm burning, but choosing every day to live on I'm a world champion in wanting At least trying You'll see, how in the end After the losses, the victory is so much sweeter I'm a world champion   I'm a world champion in compensating Apologizing and pleasing Sinning, cleansing myself Exposing, covering up Say, how can one write songs with a thousand expectations Millions of views   I'm a world champion in falling And getting back up like a champ You'll see, like a phoenix I'm burning, but choosing every day to live on I'm a world champion Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kurt Campbell is the Deputy Assistant to the President and the White House Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs. ChinaTalk recently joined Campbell in Washington to discuss US-China relations and mark the podcast’s 300th episode. We discuss: The nature of national power today; If China is peaking; How ideology impacts Beijing’s foreign policy; Campbell’s hopes and fears for the Biden administration’s Asia policy; Whether the US is still aiming to “maintain as large of a lead as possible” on chips and AI; How to think about the risk of and effectively deter military escalation; And the dark shadow of Tiananmen and its lasting impact on Chinese politics and US foreign policy. Outtro music: Brahms: Sonata in E flat major for Viola and Piano, Op. 120, No. 2 I. Allegro amabile https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYrC4rx5VrA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

James Wang, partner at Creative Ventures, joins to discuss: Huawei breakthrough implications and why NVIDIA's CUDA will make it particularly difficult to create a useful domestic AI chip Why China's AI companies have been underperforming my expectations How semiconductor industry dynamics parallel the challenges facing AI startups How pizza machines explain AI's future impact on the labor market Challenges and opportunities in investing in deep tech, including the eager but raw founder talent pool as well as the importance of market structure and distinguishing between R&D and engineering risk This show was brought to you by Creative Ventures. Creatives Ventures is at https://creativeventures.vc/ James writes at https://weightythoughts.com/ and tweets at @AJamesWang Outtro Music: the legendary Combination Pizza Hut and Taco Bell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Noah Smith of https://www.noahpinion.blog/ and Matt Klein of https://theovershoot.co/ join ChinaTalk to discuss: We get into: What's really happening with China's economy and why it matters strategically How China's potential peak parallels Japan's Why the world should and shouldn't be scared of China's progress in semis and EVs What another Trump Administration could do for US-China relations How Noah actually does his substack This was a fun one, I hope you enjoy! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Huawei’s breakthrough Kirin 9000s: what is it, why is it a big deal, and what if anything should the US do about it? Joining me, I have on two fantastic semiconductor analysis, Doug O'Laughlin of Fabricated Knowledge and Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis. We get into: How this chip illustrates Chinese engineering excellence and the porous nature of the current export control regime Why we can expect AI chips on par with the A100 coming out of China in the next two years What steps the US government could take to tighten export controls and set back the Chinese semiconductor ecosystem How China has come to dominate both the lagging edge and the EV space Here's my piece on the topic: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/huaweis-breakthrough-the-strategic And here's Dylan's: https://www.semianalysis.com/p/china-ai-and-semiconductors-rise Outtro music: 潮州土狗 - 50元的檳榔 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjl2qabfSNs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode of China Talk explores the past, present, and future of Congress with AEI's Philip Wallach. We get into: Origins of representative government trace back to medieval England, when the king consulted regional advisors – leading to development of Parliament Founders inspired by this model when establishing Congress, wanting representation for diverse parts of young U.S. But competing visions emerged for how Congress should work: Madison's view: embrace factional conflict and compromise Wilson's view: stronger centralized leadership These tensions played out through different eras of Congress: Early years: backlash against Hamilton’s Treasury power leads to first political party New Deal/WWII: Congress oversees executive branch while enabling key programs Civil rights era: Senate leaders allow extended filibuster, focus national attention, build enduring coalition 1970s reforms decentralize Congress but decrease cooperation between members over time Under 1994 Gingrich revolution, partisan centralization becomes norm – embraced by both parties Potential futures discussed, including a fever dream of Philip's where an immigration crisis actually prompts real lawmaking. Outtro music: Nixon's 1972 campaign song Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How does the public, corporations, academia and civil society end up directly influencing some of China's most important regulations? What's the trajectory of China's approach to AI? Matt Sheehan of CIEP returns to discuss the AI regulatory policy process in China! Matt's paper: https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/07/10/china-s-ai-regulations-and-how-they-get-made-pub-90117 Outtro music: 曾涵江Cup ：天选 CHOSEN ONE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OB607_3sDYQ Image: I took an image from Dunhuang and prompted it with "artificial intelligence" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Emily Benson (CSIS) and Martin Chorzempa (PIIE) come on to discuss the new executive order and Treasury's ANRPM (advanced notice of proposed rulemaking) on novel outbound investment screening rules on AI, quantum and semis. Treasury document: https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/206/Treasury-ANPRM.pdf Outtro music: 水碾河南三街 LSGCsikoriot https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Wzz1Deafh8 Midjourney: used this 18th century Japanese woodprint and prompted it with "quantum semiconductor" https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/55371 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Culture month continues with some traditional Chinese painting coverage! What was it like to paint in premodern China? How did a husband-wife and master-mentee team up to produce some remarkable art? Why is it okay to say Chinese art is "good" or "bad" while those who critique western art have so much heartburn over saying their opinion? Cohosting is Joseph Scheier-Dolberg, Chinese paintings curator at the MET. This episode is better experienced on YouTube. Check out the video on ChinaTalk's YouTube channel here: https://youtu.be/Rxr6xOj29A8 Here's the link to the exhibit: https://www.metmuseum.org/exhibitions/learning-to-paint/exhibition-objects Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Should democracies band together to protect themselves from Chinese economic coercion? What can deterrence theory teach us about geoeconomic strategy? To discuss these questions, I brought on Matt Goodman and Matt Reynolds of CSIS along with Matt Klein of The Overshoot and David Talbot of the Milken Institute. We discuss: –Why China uses economic coercion, especially against smaller states. –How democracies might join together to deter and respond to this aggression. –Why reslience beats retaliation when it comes to economic conflict. Outro music: "(You're The) Devil in Disguise," Elvis Presley. Check out our newsletter! chinatalk.media Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This August, ChinaTalk is going to take a bit of a break from our usual routine of tech and politics coverage to spend some time with Chinese culture! Starting us off is Jake Newby of the Concrete Avalanche substack who will be taking us through a radio hour of some of the most interesting independent music coming out of China. Here's the playlist: Intro music: Voision Xi - 'Too Late to Complain' from Five Loops in Her Way. More on that EP here; listen to Voision's jazz record Lost For Words here. 1. Voision Xi - 'Catch the Train' from Eating Music's Running With Friends. More on that compilation here. 2. Vii M - 'Man O' War (Cocoonics remix)' from The Other Side of Sublunary (The Remixes). More on Vii M and Sublunary here. 3. Lygort Trio - '藏身之处' from Lygort Trio. More on them here. 4. Hualun - 'Cities of the Red Night' from Tempus. More on Tempus here. 5. Zhou Shijue - '幸福来的这么自然‘ from 应运而生. More on his record with J-Fever and Eddie Beatz here. 6. 33EMYBW - 'The Unheard Southern Mountains' from Long May the Water Flow. More on that compilation here. 7. Li Daiguo - '小精灵幼儿园放学' from 吥哔呢未来音:奇幻童年. 8. Zhaoze - 'Stand in Wind' from No Answer Blowin' in the Wind. More on that album here. 9. Ὁπλίτης - 'Ὁ τῶν τραυμάτων ἄγγελος' from Τρωθησομένη. More on Hoplites here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How is the DoD thinking about deploying AI? What are the challenges and opportunities involved in building out AI assurance? To discuss, I brought on Dr. Jane Pinelis, Chief AI Engineer The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. She was previously the Chief of the Test, Evaluation, and Assessment branch at the Department of Defense Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC). Prior to joining the JAIC, Dr. Pinelis served as the Director of Test and Evaluation for USDI’s Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Functional Team, better known as Project Maven. Cohosting is Karson Elmgren of CSET. Outtro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgzGwKwLmgM Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Until yesterday, Qin Gang 秦刚 was serving as China’s Minister of Foreign Affairs. But on Monday, July 24, the National People’s Congress Standing Committee announced an emergency meeting for the next day, July 25, during which Qin was “removed” 免职 (albeit not “dismissed” 撤职) from his position as China’s #2 diplomat. To dissect the rumors and make sense of it all, we have on Matt Brazil — a senior China analyst at BluePath Labs, writer for SpyTalk, fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, and longtime friend ChinaTalk. (Check out our January 2021 show with Matt!) We discuss: Precisely what we know and don’t know about l’affaire Qin; How journalist Fu Xiaotian 傅晓田 is wrapped up in all of this — and how those with CCP connections somehow end up with private jets and buy-ins to elite universities; Qin’s possible connections to the Ministry of State Security — and why that might rub his subordinates the wrong way; How the CCP has dispensed with previous political elites, and whether Qin’s treatment resembles theirs; and Why it is that sometimes even the heads of CCP security don’t even know what’s going on! Outro music: 我要你的愛, by 葛蘭; “Saving All My Love For You,” by Whitney Houston Check out our newsletter! https://www.chinatalk.media Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

ChinaTalk welcomes Taiwan expert and Hoover research fellow Kharis Templeman. This episode is all things 2024 Taiwan elections — slated for January 13, 2024. In addition to his teaching responsibilities, Kharis is the program manager of the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific, and previously was the program manager of the Taiwan Democracy and Security Project. In this show, we discuss: The frontrunners’ profiles — Lai Ching-te 賴清德, Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜, and Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 — and what makes this three-way race different from previous elections; Why the KMT’s nomination process was somewhat quirky this time around; The importance of party unity, and why some Taiwanese political parties have failed to unify in past election cycles; What’s on Taiwanese voters’ minds — beyond national-security concerns; The CCP’s preferred winner — plus if and how any PRC-based interference may manifest over the coming months; Why Taiwan’s election system is “unhackable”; What to make of the spread of disinformation and hyper-partisanship in Taiwan’s domestic media; And some pro tips on escaping the DC bubble and understanding the Taiwanese populace. Outro music: Bubble Tea, by Mango Street Papa 芒果街老爸 Check out our newsletter, too! https://www.chinatalk.media Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

• How did the Chinese EV industry become so dominant? • What institutional and cultural factors shape China’s auto market? • What can Western democracies learn from Chinese industrial policy? To discuss these questions, I brought on GWU professor John Helveston, an expert in tech and innovation policy and Chinese electric vehicles. Outro music:  https://open.spotify.com/track/4QQEzkxcONBthDLfzqIh9S?si=2af235017c8c4449 Photo: Peter Parks/AFP/Getty Images Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What companies beyond OpenAI matter to the future of AI? What is the relationship between closed and open source source? When will researchers lose the reins to government on AI's trajectory? To discuss, this week I brought on Matt Lynley of the fantastic Supervised News substack as well as Lux Capital's Danny Crichton. Jade Leung's thesis: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:ea3c7cb8-2464-45f1-a47c-c7b568f27665 Outtro music: https://open.spotify.com/track/2opgXfgG4tdM2fuHiamoaG?si=e1eabaf135d846d3 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Foreign aid is dominated by just a few huge players that receive the bulk of grants from the US government. But is bigger better? And are local players with innovative solutions to global issues missing out? Unlock Aid wants to see smaller stakeholders get access to more funding and seats at the table. The group’s executive director, Walter Kerr and COO Amanda Arch explain why. We also discuss: How much the US spends on foreign aid each year and who gets that money. How to make the distribution of foreign aid more efficient. Why Unlock Aid wants to break down the barriers to accessing public funding. How AI could be used in foreign aid. China’s latest attempts to restrict data access to international researchers. Outro music: 好了啦 (Piss Off) by 鼓鼓呂思緯 (GBOYSWAG) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3D-ixUMcTPY Check out the Substack at ChinaTalk.media! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Paul Huang, Taiwan military expert and research fellow at the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, returns to ChinaTalk! Today he gives us an update on Taiwan’s military readiness, the PLA’s expansion, and whether Xi Jinping would really send it. If you missed his episode back in 2020, give it a listen, too. And check out his recent thoughts posted on NBR, as well as his long-form special report, “Threats to Taiwan’s Security from China’s Military Modernization.” In this episode, we cover: The status quo of Taiwan’s reservist forces and command-and-control capabilities — and how Western countries perceive that status quo; How the PLA’s military capabilities stack up against Russia’s performance in the Ukraine war thus far; What insights we can glean from PLA-facing propaganda; Why Ukrainian forces have been successful in repelling the Russian military thus far, and why Xi Jinping would loathe a protracted war over Taiwan; Paul’s take on the PLA’s recent military maneuvers against US and Canadian assets in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea; What the Taiwanese populace believes about PLA military action, US military support for Taiwan — and why these trends have changed over time; China’s robust satellite expansion program, and how it plays a role in its aircraft carrier “kill chain”; Likely and unlikely PLA invasion scenarios — and the corresponding discussions that would occur in the White House; What Taiwan military officials — like Admiral Lee Hsi-ming (Ret.) 李喜明 — think about Taiwan’s military readiness for an invasion. If you liked the podcast, make sure to hop on our newsletter, too! https://www.chinatalk.media Outro music: 逆光 - Kimberley Chen 陳芳語 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDw1B_hWwbw This interview was taped on June 16, 2023, in Taipei. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What happened over the past few days in Russia? What does this mean for the future of Putin and the war in Ukraine? To discuss, I recorded today a show with Kamil Galeev, a PKU classmate of mine formerly of the Wilson Center. Outtro music: Repo Man, Coup d'etat https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJjuVzZQj0U Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Blinken went to China to meet with Qin Gang, Wang Yi, and Xi himself! What happened, why does it matter, and does this make it any less likely we'll be in WWIII anytime soon? Do discuss, I bought on Dali Yang, political science professor at UChicago, and Nathaniel Sher of Carnegie. Subscribe to ChinaTalk at https://chinatalk.substack.com/! Outtro music (a two-parter!): Selena Gomez: Lose You to Love Me https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlJDTxahav0 Beyonce: Start Over https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJAXC1lz65I Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We're talking Chinese TV this week on ChinaTalk! Hollywood writer Trey Kollmer and ChinaTalk editor Irene Zhang discuss farming reality tv, a dongbei murder, and some super creative animated content out of Bilibili. Farmer show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fklN-OnYuGc Dongbei show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xs0OJVemJz4 Animated show: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL0gnw1pNh6C1yA3EUU-aQrOjI3hvBC7oQ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Doug O'Laughlin of the Fabricated Knowledge substack and I discuss: NVIDIA's corporate history and how it arrived at such a dominant position today What makes it so irreplacable in the coming AI revolution The national competitiveness implications of NVIDIA in a US-China context Outtro music: 邓典果DDG/李尔新 -《帅到没朋友》 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CqvpDd1xK0 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Michele Flournoy, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy under Obama, CNAS founder, and co-founder of WestExec Advisors, returns to ChinaTalk to discuss: How the Biden Administration is trying to re-engage with China Reflections on innovation in defense, AI, and the war in Ukraine ChinaTalk meetup in NYC this Friday! https://partiful.com/e/taNb35oaCKjglbHHdEA1 Reuters reporting: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/why-us-delayed-china-sanctions-after-shooting-down-spy-balloon-2023-05-11/ New Yorker piece: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/05/29/two-weeks-at-the-front-in-ukraine Socila history of the machine gun: https://www.amazon.com/Social-History-Machine-Gun/dp/0801833582 Outtro music: the great Tina Turner with Marvin Gaye: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTsy-uPvQoY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Pentagon has a new tech strategy! What does it say, what impact will it have, and what do its authors think about technological change and warfare? Dr. Nina Kollars, advisor to Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (OUSD(R&E)) Heidi Shyu, and R&E’s Chief Data Officer Cyrus Jabbari join us to discuss in a wide ranging and at times philosophical conversation about the challenges of peacetime innovation critical technology lists lessons from the origins of the machine gun and development of modern fighter jets What Cezanne and Picasso can teach us about military innovation (from this piece https://warontherocks.com/2017/03/when-clausewitz-meets-cezanne-mastery-and-the-art-of-future-war/) NYC ChinaTalk Meetup! https://partiful.com/e/taNb35oaCKjglbHHdEA1 Here's the strategy: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3389118/dod-releases-national-defense-science-and-technology-strategy/ R&E’s Chief Data Offcer yrHerus Jabbari Music: a guy banging on pots and pans https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQEedhz9ERs Midjourney is a prompt of an F16 with this late 19th century Japanese calligraphy https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/55820 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dan Faggella, who for ten years has interviewed business leaders about the challenges of implementing AI, joins ChinaTalk to discuss about just how hard it is to get AI to diffuse across an economy. We also get into: Why the past ten years of AI hasn't lived up to its promise The technological, bureaucratic, and cultural challenges of corporate AI diffusion Which sectors are most and least likely to adopt quickly NYC ChinaTalk meetup: https://partiful.com/e/taNb35oaCKjglbHHdEA1 Music: Uyghur drill, Ahh? Ohh! by Athree https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdfgc2yr9Co Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jeff Ding is the leading US scholar on China and AI and author of one of the earliest China-focused Substacks, ChinAI. He recently published a fire paper called, “The diffusion deficit in scientific and technological power: re-assessing China’s rise.” It makes the argument that diffusion capacity (not just innovation capacity) is critical to economic growth — and China actually fares much worse in diffusion capacity than mainstream narratives imply. In particular, “In cases when the emerging power has a strong innovation capacity but weak diffusion capacity (diffusion deficit), it is less likely to sustain its rise than innovation-centric assessments depict. Conversely, when the emerging power possesses a strong diffusion capacity but weak innovation capacity (diffusion surplus), it is more likely to sustain its rise than innovation-centric assessments portray.” Mainstream narratives, meanwhile, “only compare the U.S. and China’s ability to produce new innovations, neglecting their ability to effectively use and adopt emerging technologies. By revealing the gap between China’s innovation capacity and diffusion capacity, this paper argues that innovation-centric assessments mistakenly inflate China’s S&T power.” NYC ChinaTalk Meetup: https://partiful.com/e/taNb35oaCKjglbHHdEA1 Cohosting is Teddy Collins, formerly of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and DeepMind. Outtro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17Y7-gm8STI midjourney prompt: "frank quietly industrial revolution" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

PJ Maykish, Abigail Kukura, and Will Moreland from the Future Technologies platform team of the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP) join the conversation to discuss critical technologies and the development of a national technology strategy. The guests provide insights into how the United States can create a comprehensive technology strategy that prioritizes the development of critical technologies to compete with China. They also discuss the importance of international collaboration in the development of emerging technologies and the challenges faced in building consensus among different stakeholders. This is the paper we primarily discuss: Platforms-Panel-IPR.pdf (scsp.ai) Vishnu Kannan of Carnegie cohosts. Midjourney art: the prompt is "A Bauhaus poster for a production of Shakespeare's Hamlet. Featuring a young man looking out from a turret on a castle out towards the sea" but I thought it has a bit of a tech forecasting vibe! Music by the great Cab Calloway: Hi De Ho Man - YouTube Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On Monday, May 1, I interviewed Virgina Senator Mark Warner. We get into the RESTRICT Act, state capacity to analyze emerging technologies, the future of industrial policy, the nature and limits to bipartisanship around China, as well as the government’s role in regulating artificial intelligence. Check out the ChinaTalk newsletter for a full transcript! https://www.chinatalk.media/ Art via midjourney prompt: corporate America’s naïveté vis-à-vis China Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices