Beyond Markets

The Q3 earnings season is out of the way, US elections resulted in a swift and decisive Republican sweep, and the incoming president has nominated a likely equity-friendly nominee for the post of Treasury Secretary. The ducks still seem to be in a row for a year-end rally, but what tweaks have our strategists made to their calls, and where do they think investors should focus their attention as we head into the final stretch of the year?

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, about how the earnings results compared in Europe and the US, and what the dynamics are going forwards. They delve into which cyclical sectors are preferred and Mathieu also explains why some sectors have now fallen out of favour and why others should now be in focus.

00:31 Introduction to topic and speaker

01:14 Summary of US Q3 earnings season

02:33 Summary of Europe Q3 earnings season

03:30 Stock price reactions to earnings

04:10 Is it too late to join the equity rally?

06:47 Why we overweight Financials and prefer US stocks

08:06 The reason Industrials remain overweight

09:04 Our preference for mid-caps over small-caps

10:22 Healthcare moves to Neutral

12:10 Thoughts on tech and the Magnificent 7

12:29 Latest ratings changes on equity sectors

14:28 What to take away from the conversation

15:18 Closing comments

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Following the shift in the political landscape, Julius Baer experts expect higher nominal growth driven by both real growth and inflation in the US. Given less room for rate cuts, they anticipate yields to stay higher for longer and Fed funds rate to be above neutral next year. Although it is too early to quantify the consequences of the political shift in terms of trade and fiscal policy, investors now benefit from a better starting point in bond markets. 

In this episode of Beyond Markets, Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Asia at Julius Baer, discusses the near-term outlook and strategy for fixed income going into 2025.

In this episode of Beyond Markets, Carsten Menke and Norbert Rucker, Next Generation Research experts at Julius Baer, discuss the boom in AI and data centres and what this means for energy and the econom

The S&P fell 2% last week, but it is still 1.5% higher following the Donald Trump’s victory at the 2024 US presidential election. Serious change looks set to be coming under a second Trump administration. The new administration will implement a libertarian vision, which includes economic freedom, and thus a push for freer markets, and a leaner and more efficient government promised by the new “Department of Government Efficiency” limits the risk of unproductive allocation of capital.

On inflation and interest rates, the October consumer and producer price inflation numbers both came out hotter than expected. The most recent initial jobless claims reading was also at the lowest since May. Such developments call into question the narrative that interest rates are going to continue declining at the faster pace expected a few months ago.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

The past week has been marked by three major global events: the US presidential election, Federal Reserve meeting and the National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting in China. 
In this episode, Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, breaks down each of these developments and the impact on the global economy and investments.

US stocks surged after Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential election victory — but what does this mean for the future of the markets?

In this episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research and William Fong, Co-Head, Alternatives & Strategic Solutions Asia at Julius Baer, explore their outlook on equities, bonds, and other key asset classes, examining where opportunities and risks may lie ahead.

In this monthly China update, our experts discuss the recent shift in sentiment around Chinese equities, expected policy changes from the National People's Congress meeting, and the critical factors in solving China's structural challenges. They also examine the implications of a Trump or Harris presidency on China's economy and global supply chains, as well as the outlook for the Chinese Yuan and gold.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities analyst Jen-Ai Chua provides an in-depth look at the current landscape as we approach this week’s US Presidential election. 
We also explore the factors supporting potential upside for stocks, including strong year-end seasonality, anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and corporate earnings continuing to hold up.

US equities and gold continue to make new historical highs, while markets approach a pivotal period with major upcoming events. From key Q3 US earnings reports, the US Presidential election to China’s NPC congress and the aftermath of Japan’s general election. What are the investment implications of these events and how can investors navigate the uncertainties ahead?

This episode is presented by Eric Mak from the Equity Research Asia team at Julius Baer.

In this episode, we take a look at the US fixed income markets coming out of the third quarter of 2024, and what to expect in this space as we near the November 5 US presidential election. We also briefly discuss how other G10 and Emerging Market central banks have shifted following the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut in September. It’s a different story in China, however, with its central bank just announcing reductions in the Loan Prime Rates.

This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.

After a strong September for equities, the question now is if we can expect a year-end rally. An analysis of the charts provides a clear answer. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about the significance of the steepening yield curve and the depreciating US dollar for equities, as well as which regions and sectors are set to outperform over the remainder of the year.

00:38 – Introduction to speakers and topic
01:00 – What is technical analysis?
03:03 – What do September’s equity market returns mean for the rest of the year?
04:34 – What does a depreciating US dollar mean for equities?
06:02 – How significant is the steepening yield curve?
07:46 – Which regions are set to perform better?
08:30 – What’s next for Chinese equities?
09:35 – Which sectors should do well now?
10:25 – After reaching new all-time highs, how is gold set to perform now?
11:30 – Closing remarks

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In this episode of The Week in Markets, we provide a review of the latest press conference of China’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), how investors see it and the outlook of the Chinese equity market going forward.  We also briefly discuss the latest outlook of the Fed interest rate, the implications of the US Presidential election and the ongoing reporting season. 

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of​ Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer.  

As we move into Q4 2024, gold prices continue their remarkable climb, while oil faces a more uncertain future amid heightened geopolitical tensions. What’s fueling these divergent trends in two of the world’s most important commodities, and where could they be headed next?

Join Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia, and Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, as they offer expert analysis and insights on the key factors shaping the markets for gold and oil.

00:19 Introduction

00:41 Our gold and oil forecast

01:55 Are geopolitics flare ups driving up gold prices?

2:52 Asia and Western demand

3:46 The impact of central bank gold holdings

5:04 Why has gold continued to rise despite China’s pause in gold purchases

6:02 Speculative gold positioning

7:18 Significant redemptions in Western ETFs

8:15 Where can gold go in a rate easing cycle?

9:25 Recession risks

10:20 Geopolitical noise impacting oil

11:00 Escalating conflict – where can oil go?

12:42 China’s stimulus – is there upside for oil?

14:01 The supply and demand picture

In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua highlights how stronger than expected non-farm payrolls data has spooked US markets, while the much awaited press conference by China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on Tuesday disappointed. More economic data releases in upcoming weeks should provide greater clarity as to the likelihood of ‘no landing’ in the US and the slowdown in China. We expect the Asian REITs to continue doing well as expectations of lower rates remain intact.

This episode was recorded on October 8, 2024.

In this episode we are joined by Damien Ng, one of Julius Baer’s next generation analysts, to discuss the background and economic significance of obesity drugs.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, we discuss the newly elected Japan Prime Minister and the market response, as well as how his potential policies affect our investment thesis in Japan equities. For the Chinese market, we share a few data points on how strong inflows have been, why we think the tactical rally may extend and what this means for investors.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, the China strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer.

In this monthly China update, our experts analyse if the big rally in China equities has legs, following last Tuesday's "bazooka" policy announcements from China's central bank. They also take a closer look at recent trading flows and discuss what trends can be expected in currencies and stocks.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

The Chinese financial regulators recently announced a series of monetary measures with an aim of supporting the economy. In this podcast, we discuss how effective the policies are, whether this is just another bounce or if it marks the beginning of a sustainable rally, and what this means for investors.

This podcast is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, we discuss the outlook of the US interest rate path after the larger-than-expected 50 basis points cut and the implications for different assets. We also comment on the recent bounce of the offshore Chinese equity market and our strategy around that.​

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head​ of Research Hong Kong for Bank Julius Baer.

At the much-anticipated US Federal Reserve meeting on 18 September 2024, the monetary policy easing cycle finally began in the US with an announcement of a 50 basis point rate cut. 

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, and Mischa Anand, Julius Baer’s Head of Advisory in Zurich, talk to Helen Freer about the significance of the Fed’s latest interest rate decision, what it means for the economy and the implications for investors.

00:39 – Introduction to the topic and the speakers
01:10 – Was a 50bp cut by the Fed appropriate?
04:06 – What does the rate cut mean for the economy and investors?
08:53 – Given a recession is not our base case, what is our macroeconomic outlook?
13:03 – What about the outlook for equities now that the Fed easing cycle has started?
15:06 - Does this mean we’re likely to see volatility ahead?
17:14 - Where does the Fed go from here?
20:08 – How significant is the start of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle for other central banks and the rest of the world?
23:07 - Closing remarks

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We expect volatility in equity markets to remain elevated as we head towards the end of the year, amidst uncertainty around the upcoming US election, seasonal factors, and lingering fears of an economic slowdown. It therefore seems timely to look at what our analysts take into account when it comes to stock selection.

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, about how his team approaches the process of stock selection, what sectors they favour currently, and the subsectors that are set to offer good investment opportunities in the coming months.

00:32 – Introduction to the topic and the speakers
01:16 – Our approach to stock selection
02:33 – Market Outlook into year-end 2024
04:13 – Information Technology: our preferences
06:27 – Healthcare: more than just large-cap pharma
09:06 – Industrials: focus on cyclical & structural growth opportunities
11:22 – Opportunities across sectors
12:01 - US election outcome - implications for stocks
13:33 – Summary and conclusion

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Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 index had its worst week of the year on the idea that the economy was weakening. Last week was its best week of the year, on the idea the Federal Reserve might cut rates by 50 basis points rather than the traditional 25, when it meets this Wednesday. Expectations have changed following two articles in the Wall Street Journal raising the prospect for a 50 basis point cut, and comments from three former Fed officials who each made a case for a 50 basis point cut. In July, the consensus was looking for Q3 S&P 500 index annual earnings growth of almost 7%. Now it’s looking for just 4%. However, the pace of growth is expected to improve thereafter; to 11% in Q4, and 13% and 14% respectively in Q1 and Q2 of next year.

On Tuesday night, Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris faced off for the first time at the US presidential debate, each presenting two starkly differing visions for the country.

Join Christian Gattiker, Head of Research and William Fong, Co-Head, Alternatives & Strategic Solutions Specialists Asia at Bank Julius Baer as they analyse the implications of each candidate's policy proposals, and how investors can navigate the potential shifts in the political landscape.

1:15     The significance of the US presidential election

3:29    How might Trump’s tariffs impact the economy?

6:06   Trump’s energy policy and inflation

8:18    Can the Fed keep its independence?

9:34    Trump’s tax policy and potential deficit impact

11:53    How can investors position in a Trump sweep?

13:19    Harris’ tax policy and potential deficit impact

15:37    Do price controls actually work?

18:37    How might a Harris victory impact the economy?

20:20    Why have bond markets not responded more significantly yet?

21:38    What the polls are saying

23:07    Predicting the outcome

24:30    A very tight race

In this episode of Beyond Markets, we are joined by Nicolas de Skowronski, Head Wealth Management Solutions and member of the Executive Board, and Sonia Goessi, Head Region Switzerland and Europe and member of the Executive Board, to discuss Julius Baer’s 360-degree approach to wealth management and why it is important for everyone.

August employment data show a labour market that is continuing to cool, but not at an alarming rate. The three Federal Reserve officials spoke last week all hinted the impending rate cut cycle could be an aggressive one. But the futures market is still pricing a higher chance of a 25 basis point cut than a 50 basis point one at next week’s meeting. Most political analysts expect Vice President Harris to fare less well than former President Trump in this week’s debate, so there is more upside for her. But for the first time, renowned political statistician Nate Silver’s Electoral College model puts Trump ahead of Harris.

In this monthly China update, our experts analyse recent market movements and their implications for investors. They also discuss China’s property market, the evolving policy framework and its impact on Chinese households, the strengthening of the RMB and resulting currency trades, as well as the latest views on gold and Chinese government bonds.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation rising 2.6% y/y in July is a perfectly acceptable reading for the market. Excluding the notoriously lagged housing component, it would be 2.1%, right where the Federal Reserve (Fed) wants it to be. However, inflation has less relevance for the market now that the Fed has made it clear that its focus is on employment. Initial jobless claims have returned to 230,000, and the Q2 annualised GDP has been revised upwards to 3.0% q/q, both suggesting that the economy is far from entering a recession. The Chinese government may allow homeowners to refinance as much as USD5.4trn of mortgages, which would be good for consumer sentiment. The dollar/renminbi exchange rate has broken an important support line. A rising renminbi tends to lift other Asian currencies. Usually, when money goes into a currency, the assets denominated in that currency see a lift too.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

Three weeks ago, there were concerns of a new Black Monday, similar to the one in 1987. Today, global equities have reached a new high. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole focused on the labour market, where he said that the cooling is unmistakable. However, the Challenger Report showed only 26,000 job cuts in July, much lower than the 20-year average of 63,000 per month. A closer look at the rise in unemployment shows that much of it is coming from new entrants to the labour force who have not yet found jobs, leaving them still in the ranks of the unemployed.
 
This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

How should investors position in Japan markets in light of the recent intense volatility in Japanese indices?

Join Kelly Chia, Deputy Head of Research Asia at Bank Julius Baer, and Alexander Treves, Managing Director and Head of Investment Specialists, EMAP Equities at JP Morgan Asset Management, as they share their expert perspectives on how Japanese stocks are likely to fare in a rising Yen environment. They also explore the outlook for the Bank of Japan, and examine critical factors shaping Japan’s economy, including inflation trends and ongoing corporate reforms.

The Bitcoin blockchain needs miners to function. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, talks to Helen Freer about the Bitcoin mining ecosystem, covering topics including how the Bitcoin mining process works, what artificial intelligence has to do with it, and how mining activity influences the overall market dynamics.

00:51 Why has Bitcoin mining become such an important topic lately?
03:01 How does mining actually work? 
03:47 How do energy costs affect the profitability of Bitcoin miners?
05:23 What is the hashrate?
06:46 How does mining activity influence market dynamics?
07:52 What drives the profitability of Bitcoin miners?
09:28 What does artificial intelligence have to do with Bitcoin mining? 
10:50 How might the outcome of the US election impact Bitcoin mining?
12:08 The outlook for Bitcoin miners and the Bitcoin market

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As of 14th of August, over 92% of companies in the S&P 500 Index have reported earnings for the second quarter of 2024. What have we observed so far, and what trends do we see emerging?

Cheng Hin Saw, Head of Equities Specialists Asia at Bank Julius Baer, presents five key takeaways from this earnings season.

00:44 Earnings more resilient than revenues
02:29 A broadening of growth
03:27 Technology continues to dominate, but the narrative is shifting
05:19 Weakness in Consumer sector
06:36 Forward earnings guidance remains constructive

In this episode, we share where we are in stock markets after the big rebound we saw in the last 2 weeks. We will also have 2 key central bankers speaking at important events.

This episode is presented by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Research, Asia).

Markets have been dominated by extreme bouts of volatility in the past few weeks, such as US equities seeing 3-5% intraday drawdowns, and the Japanese Yen appreciating almost 10% in just 3 weeks. Meanwhile, concerns of overhype in the AI theme and US recession fears feature prominently.​

Join Eric Mak from Julius Baer’s Equity Research Asia team, as he shares insights on how to navigate this turbulence.

"Our time has come, but we must kick the ball to score the goal." In this episode, Nilesh Shah, Managing Director at Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company, shares his insights on India's remarkable economic growth, challenges ahead, and the key risks investors should be aware of. He also highlights his takeaways from the recent Union Budget and Economic Survey Report.

This episode is hosted by Rishabh Saksena, Head of Investment Specialists Asia at Julius Baer.

This episode was recorded on August 5, 2024.

The intensity of the selloff in markets has taken many investors by surprise, with Japan's Nikkei index tumbling around 18% in the past 5 days.  Weaker than expected US labour data also triggered the Sahm rule, a signal of recession, and has spooked US equity markets as well.​

This episode is presented by Jen-Ai Chua, Equities Analyst at Julius Baer.

This is a special update from Julius Baer's partner show, Moving Markets.

Listen to our daily updates on Moving Markets at the links below:
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/sg/podcast/moving-markets-daily-news/id1628789317
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2AYJMvVqqIavsPP7v4YxEs?si=tpGFjNXYQYWD2NfLtI2XCA

After the global stock-market rout accelerated yesterday, with losses cascading across tech shares and Japanese equities crashing by the most in over a decade, Japanese stock indices have staged a turnaround and are leading gains in Asia today. In today’s special episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, shares his insights into the latest equity market developments and how he see things going forward. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides us with an update on digital assets and talks about the prospects of a Trump trade.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

04:40 Equity market developments: Christian Gattiker (Head of Equity Strategy)

09:22 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

13:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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In this monthly China update, our experts discuss their key takeaways from China’s Third Plenum and Politburo meeting. They also analyse the effect of recent surprise rate cuts, and the so-called “cash for clunkers” program in boosting consumption. They also discuss the Chinese equity market in the context of an ongoing sector rotation in US tech stocks, strengthening of the Japanese Yen, as well as latest developments in the US-China chip dispute.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

When the market goes down, people look for reasons. The one most cited now is the idea that Artificial Intelligence will not be as profitable as expected. With June Personal Consumption Expenditure Price index showing inflation is nicely under control, the Federal Reserve should indicate it will cut rates in September, when it meets this week. History is on the side of the S&P 500 index being nicely higher a year after the first rate cut in a rate cut cycle, as long as there is no recession. We forecast US GDP growth at 2.1% next year. The past 4 economic expansions since the “Great Moderation” began in 1982 lasted on average 103 months, while the current expansion is just 51 months old.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

In only three of the past thirty years did the S&P 500 index do as well or better than what it has done year-to-date. A consolidation or correction is likely over the next month or so and indeed would be a healthy thing, for the market to carry on later in a sustainable manner. While it’s still early days, Q2 earnings look like they will beat the consensus forecast of 9.7% y/y (which is already the highest since Q4 2021). Odds infer that if the Democrat Party picked a nominee other than Vice President Kamala Harris, its chances of winning the presidential election would be over 50%. But almost all the potential candidates have already pledged their support to her, meaning they don’t want to run. Donald Trump is therefore most likely to win, which in general is perceived as a market-friendly event.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

US equity markets have undeniably outperformed their European peers so far in 2024, but there are countries and segments within Europe that we believe are now set to benefit from the current economic environment, and that despite disappointing data readings in June, are nevertheless worthy of investors’ attention.

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Strategist, about where his team sees opportunities in European equities, which countries now carry an Overweight rating, and the sectors and segments that currently offer diversification benefits for investors.

00:32 – Introduction to the topic and speakers
01:15 – Impact of elections on UK equities
02:50 – French equities after parliamentary elections
03:58 – Why consider European equities when US indices are outperforming
06:01 – European industrials and our preferred subsectors
06:54 – The case for mid-cap stocks
07:26 – Overweight calls for Germany and Switzerland and a preference for cyclical sectors
09:25 - Does disappointing recent economic data taint our views?
10:19 - Summary of our equity calls within Europe
11:05 - Conclusion

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In this episode, we share some thoughts about the ​assassination attempt on​ Donald Trump over last weekend as well as what to expect in an earnings heavy week.

This episode is presented by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Research, Asia)

In this episode, we talk about what we can expect from a data heavy week and what the 9% Q2 earnings growth expected for the S&P500 means for investors.

This episode is presented by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Research, Asia), and was recorded on 9 July, 2024.

In this monthly China update, our experts discuss if the Chinese property market has finally reached a trough, as well how to pre-position for potential tax reforms in the country, particularly consumption tax. They also assess the impact of previous US trade tariffs on China, and explore the relationship between gold and productivity cycle.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

In this episode of Beyond Markets, Alisa Wood, Partner, KKR, shares her insights on private equity and in particular, open-ended, evergreen fund structures. We explore what evergreen structures are, how it compares with traditional, closed end 10-year fund structures, and why it is advantageous to build exposure to private equity in a portfolio.

 This episode is hosted by William Fong, Co-Head, Alternatives & Strategic Solutions Specialists Asia at Bank Julius Baer.  

0:18: Introduction
1:14: What are open-ended, evergreen private equity structures?
2:50: The growing popularity of evergreen private equity structures
6:06: Open-ended vs close-ended structures
9:35: Redemption opportunities in evergreen funds
12:22: Institutional experience & investment focus
18:29: Why invest in private equity?
23:23: Get to know Alisa – PEWIN, The Public Theater
31:01: Recommended musicals in NYC

Important legal information:

The information and opinions expressed in this podcast constitute marketing material and are not the result of independent financial or investment research.

Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for further important legal information.

Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P.  (KKR) disclaimer:

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should be considered of a general nature. The information in this podcast is current only as of the date published. No undertaking, representation, warranty or other assurance, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P. (along with certain affiliates), or any of its respective partners, executives, employees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation and no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of them for any such information or opinions. Such information or opinions should not be relied upon and are subject to change without notice. Anyone listening to this podcast should consult their own advisors relating to any investment decision. Statements contained in this podcast that are not historical facts are based on KKR's current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors and should not be relied upon. There are several risks associated with investments in private equity structures. In addition, any projections or other estimates, including estimates of returns or performance, are “forward-looking statements” and are based on certain assumptions that may change.

In this episode, we provide some highlights of what happened during the 1st US presidential debate of 2024 and what to expect from a very heavy macro data week.

This episode is presented by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Research, Asia).

How are loans made by direct lenders different from bank loans? What should potential investors in this asset class need to be aware of, and for whom is it suited.

Listen to the latest Beyond Markets podcast, with Fiona Kenyon, Head of Private Markets Advisors at Julius Baer, and Craig Packer, Co-President and Head of Credit at Blue Owl Capital, to learn more about the world of private credit and direct lending.

01:51 Introduction to topic and speakers
02:50 What exactly is private credit and is it the same thing as direct lending?
04:14 Are companies that borrow from direct lenders typically of poorer quality than those that get bank loans?
06:17 What’s the history of direct lending? Is this a new asset class or has it been around for a long time?
07:56 Are the characteristics of direct loans very different from bank loans? 
10:04 Why has direct lending grown so much in the past few years?
14:04 Is this ‘the golden age of credit’? What are some of the risks of direct lending as an asset class? 
16:01 Given the complexity, how can direct lending fit into a wealth investor’s overall portfolio?

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In this episode, we review what happened last week, Nvidia’s new achievement unlocked as most valuable company in the world and the US presidential elections. We also dive into Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s mindset on how he arrived at where he is today.

This episode is presented by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Research, Asia).

In today’s episode of Beyond Markets we discuss real estate and how we can make buildings better with Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer.

With an improving economic outlook and a broadening recovery, what should investors expect in the second half of 2024? 

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, and Kelly Chia, Deputy Head of Research Asia, talk to Helen Freer about the current market environment and where they currently see opportunities for investors.

01:02 What are the implications for investors of the improving economic outlook?
02:05 What will central bank rate cuts mean for equities?
03:34 Our focus within equities
05:24 Why are mid-caps set to do well?
06:16 What impact will geopolitics and US elections have on equity markets?
07:01 What is our preference in terms of regions?
07:49 Why do we like industrials?
09:07 Why is Japan currently attractive?
10:22 What opportunities do we see in emerging markets?
11:21 What Next Generation themes are worth highlighting now?
11:58 Where do we see opportunities within fixed income?
13:34 What about emerging market debt?
14:09 Summary and conclusions on fixed income opportunities
15:10 Current thoughts on gold
16:27 Summary of outlook for H2 2024

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In this episode of The Week in Markets, we review the recent central bank meetings and new ideas in the US outside of Magnificent 7. In Asia, we discuss why we still like Japan and comment on the implications of recent EU tariffs on China. We also make a few simple points on private equity investments.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong for Bank Julius Baer.

After many years of abnormalcy in the fixed income market, we are finally starting to see some normalcy returning to it. However, that doesn't mean there are no problems with government bonds. The US debt load has risen to 35 trillion post the pandemic, consequences of the US election are uncertain, and military spending will go up if tensions continue to rise around the world.  On the other hand, the world economy is doing well, companies are becoming better run, and inflation expectations are generally falling. Against this backdrop, investors could look to  investment grade corporate bonds in the fixed income space.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

In this monthly China update, our experts review the preliminary impact of the recent key measures announced by Chinese policymakers to stabilise the property market, and if we could see a sustained recovery. The Chinese equity market has also rallied strongly since April, and our experts discuss what it could take to drive a second rally, and the sectors that should perform. They also share their thoughts on how to navigate contradictory Chinese PMI numbers, as well as renewed US-China trade relation tensions.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

In this episode of the Week in Markets, we discuss the outlook of interest rates as the key driver for global assets. We propose ideas for putting fresh money to work, discuss the US elections, and China. Last but not least, we feature our latest upgrade in gold. This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong for Bank Julius Baer.

In this week’s episode, Bhaskar Laxminarayan, CIO Asia at Julius Baer, highlights our current view of markets, the “growth scarcity” in equity markets, and why investors need to look beyond the established large cap or Magnificent Seven at quality mid-cap growth names.

Please also listen to our previously published episode “Global Quality Mid-Caps – Expand Your Opportunity Set”, where we discuss this theme in greater detail.

Taylor Swift’s ongoing ‘Eras’ tour, currently making its mark on European cities, has had such an economic impact on some of the locations that it has already toured, that the word Swiftonomics has actually made it into economic parlance. And it’s not just big-name singers getting in on the market-moving act. 2024 will see a host of mega sporting events lining up for our attention too. So just how do these events impact the local economies and the brands that sponsor or support them? Are the only winners the performers, or are others set to benefit?

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Kelly Chia, Deputy Head of Research Asia, and Matt Leighton, Sports Business Journalist, to provide some insight into the real impact of these events and help us uncover just who, aside from the venues and the stars involved, might actually gain from them.

As India's Lok Sabha elections enter the final phases, the nation finds itself amidst strong equity market outperformance and favourable demographic tailwinds. Additionally, India is well-positioned to reap significant benefits from the AI revolution.

Join our Julius Baer experts Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia and Bhaskar Laxminarayan, CIO Asia, and Head of Investment Management Asia, as they take a pulse check on the current political and market sentiment and examine the economic and investment landscape for India beyond the elections.

In this episode, we examine two key events that moved markets last Friday - China's special ultra-long government bond sale, as well as its surprise announcement of a housing rescue package.

This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.

With large to mega cap stocks frequently dominating the attention of the media and analysts, quality mid-cap stocks often remain under the radar of investors.

Quality mid-caps are distinguished by robust management, solid financials, and sustainable competitive advantages and offer a compelling blend of growth and stability.

Join Dorcas Nga, Fund Specialist, as she speaks with Baris Pinar, Head of Global Excellence Equities, Julius Baer, on his investment philosophy, and the benefits of incorporating global quality mid-caps into investors’ portfolios.

In this episode, we talk about how the earnings season in the US is going, some reasons about why Gold is on a tear and what we think about the ongoing China stock rally.

This episode is presented by Kelly Chia, Deputy Head of Research, Asia at Julius Baer.

"We are not trying to save the planet, we are first trying to save ourselves". Join us as we delve deeper into the origins of carbon credits and their applicability in the climate change scene today.

In this episode of the Beyond Markets Podcast, Roy Athanasius Ang, Strategy & Business Operations Singapore, talks to Julius Baer's in-house climate and stewardship specialist Jean-Damien Bogner.

Recent escalating developments in the Middle East conflict appears to have reduced the likelihood of ceasefire. Wage growth in April was its lowest since June 2021, which should mean less inflation. However, the Cleveland Federal Reserve predicts the upcoming headline April CPI inflation reading will be a disappointingly high 3.5% year/year, the same as March. The Yen fell 5% in April, then bounced 5% since then. There’s been no event, so the best we can say is as long as people can borrow at 1% in Yen and invest at 6% in US Dollars, the currency will go down. But a Big Mac in Japan is 12% cheaper than a Big Mac in China, while Japanese incomes are 6x higher than Chinese ones. It’s not possible for a developed market to have emerging market prices forever.  

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

In this monthly China update, our experts examine the factors that drove the recent rally in the Hong Kong stock markets and the outlook ahead for the Chinese economy following encouraging PMI trends. They also look ahead to the upcoming Politburo meeting, and weigh the consequences of a stronger and weaker Chinese Yuan.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

Julius Baer Chief Investment Officer Yves Bonzon joins journalist Hanna Wise to take a closer look at Julius Baer's investment strategy. In this third and final episode they look at performance and risk and how this impacts investors.  

Yves shares how we analyze and assess performance, how to avoid "bad" performance and what "healthy" performance looks like, especially in a volatile market. He also talks about the risks involved with performance, how we mitigate those risks, and how he measures his success as a CIO.

Asian currencies have been roiled by an unexpectedly stronger US Dollar this year, but we do not equate this to the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. Most Asian countries are better positioned than before to weather currency volatility and temporary higher oil prices, due to stronger fundamentals and more flexible exchange rates. However, the effect of a weaker Renminbi could last longer as economic growth slows and given China is the biggest trading partner for most countries in Asia and Australia except India. We stay away from local rates except Singapore Dollar due to the deep local investor base and keep our call for Asian Investment Grade USD bonds due to strong technicals.

This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.

The oil market has remained surprisingly calm despite the recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. What are the dynamics at play here? And looking ahead, how might the oil and gas industry evolve as we head into a new era of energy transition and electric vehicles?

In this episode, Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research speaks to Pearlyn Wong, Investment Content and Campaigns Asia, on his latest insights on the oil market.

As gold prices hit record highs, we are joined in the studio by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, and Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia, to discuss the causes and consequences of the metal’s remarkable rally.

The most likely trajectory for the Middle East is that things de-escalate. World economic growth looks set to accelerate, meaning inflation could remain sticky. We look for rate cuts in September, November and December, and for treasury yields to come down a little bit. Technology stocks are sensitive to the slightest negatives, but a strong economy still suggests a positive outlook for earnings growth this year.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

Middle East, oil, economic growth, inflation, rate cuts, treasury yields, technology stocks, earnings growth.

The significant innovation in the semiconductor industry over the years has undoubtedly enabled the huge advances in artificial intelligence. But where do we go from here? Will more efficient and better performing chips be enough to satisfy the requirements of AI models? 

In this episode, Helen Freer, Investment Writer, talks to Luca Menozzi, Next Generation Analyst, about what the transition to a new era in computing architecture might mean for the future of AI.

01:14 Has innovation in the semiconductor industry enabled the advances in AI?
02:45 What is Moore’s law?
03:38 What’s the scope for chips to shrink further?
04:41 Why do some industry experts believe that Moore’s law is dead?
05:53 Will the advances be enough to satisfy the requirements of AI models?
06:39 Are bottlenecks expected that might hinder the future growth of AI?
07:42 Who is buying the chips?
08:24 Is the demand for semiconductors set to increase?
09:24 Conclusions

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The S&P’s performance after “shock events” shows, unsurprisingly, that the ones that caused no damage to the economy had the least impact on the market, and vice versa. The oil price is steady post Iranian attacks on Israel, suggesting the latter this time.

While the Yom Kippur War and Oil Embargo of 1973 strike parallels with today, the global economy is less than half as reliant on oil as it was then. There are many other suppliers apart from the Middle East, and no one is talking about an embargo today. March CPI inflation at 3.5% year/year has caused concerns that inflation is beginning to trend higher again. But the culprits driving it (auto insurance and rents) are likely to come down.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

In this monthly China update, our experts analyze the recent depreciation of the Chinese Yuan, the impact of potential quantitative easing on the Chinese economy, how to look at the Chinese EV sector against the backdrop of a volatile Sino-US relationship, and also why Gold continues to surge.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group, and was recorded on 8 April, 2024.

In this episode, we take a look at how equity markets today shape up against the peaks seen at the start of 2022. We also examine investor positioning, and if it’s a good time to buy Japanese stocks.

This episode is presented by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Research, Asia).

When it comes to building your investment portfolio, asset allocation is key. For Julius Baer Chief Investment Officer Yves Bonzon, finding an asset allocation breakdown that meets your individual needs and that you can withstand, even in the case of extreme shocks, makes all the difference. 

In the second episode of our How we Manage Money series, Yves Bonzon explains the do’s and don’ts of portfolio construction, the difference between strategic and tactical asset allocation, and how investors can build a truly diversified portfolio that won’t keep them up at night.

In this episode, we talk about the numbers 21 and 8599 on top of a review of what happened in March, and what we can look forward to in April.
This episode is presented by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Research, Asia).

Whether it's those who are working in finance or those who are making their own way as investors, women are building confidence – and portfolios. Explore the investment strategies that women have, why stereotypes of how they manage wealth are outdated, their risk appetites, and more. The Beyond Markets Podcast is joined by Mayssa Scheib, Intermediaries Relationship Manager with Julius Baer.

With many stock market indices having hit record highs in the first quarter of 2024, it is timely to look at some of the factors our analysts take into account when selecting their preferred stocks. Besides looking at the development of individual companies, it is also important to join the dots and see what the important drivers are in different sectors and subsectors. So, what has our attention currently? 

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, about how his team approaches the process of stock selection, what sectors they favour currently and the subsectors that are set to offer good investment opportunities in the coming months.

00:53 Stock selection – our process

02:30 Background – the big picture     

04:29 Why we are approaching the time for a style reversal

05:18 Why we still prefer US stocks versus European stocks

06:28 Our preferred sectors (Communications/IT)

07:54 Why we don’t believe that there is an IT bubble

08:59 Why we like the Healthcare sector and some specific segments

10:27 Subsectors where we see value

12:05 Consumer defensives – it pays to be defensive

12:54 Our stance on luxury goods

13:20 Our stance on European financials

14:02 Looking forwards and considering US elections

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In this episode, we examine the recent central bank actions and review the asset market moves. In particular, we discuss our latest views on two popular funding currencies - the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc, how to think about the Japanese equity market if the Yen does appreciate, and why we should stick to quality stocks in the US.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Bank Julius Baer.

Bitcoin has been getting plenty of attention so far this year and with the halving expected in around a month’s time, that is not expected to change. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Helen Freer, Investment Writer, talks to Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, about how the halving will work and what it means for the blockchain’s dynamics.

Please note that this podcast is for educational purposes only and does not represent a recommendation of any kind with regard to Bitcoin or other digital assets.

01:24 What has been happening with regard to Bitcoin so far this year?
02:24 What is the Bitcoin halving and why is relevant? 
03:56 The implications of the Bitcoin halving for mining operations
05:40 How should Bitcoin mining companies be viewed in light of the Bitcoin halving? 
06:36 Is past performance an indicator of future performance? 
07:37 What can we expect for the Bitcoin market and broader digital asset markets now as result of the halving?  
08:35 What does the Bitcoin supply schedule look like going forward? 
10:11 What is the current state of demand versus supply?
10:34 Conclusions

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A sequential rise in February core inflation is not cause for concern, as it is due to “residual seasonality”, an auto insurance outlier, and residential real estate which will come down. The S&P 500 index’s positive return in each of the last four months is something that only happened 16 times before; on average after those times, it returned 16% to the end of the year. There is a break-out in the downward trend of the Chinese stock market, and the gradient is turning positive in several economic data series there. Japan’s wages will be 5.3% higher than last year, the largest increase since 1991. We look for the Bank of Japan to raise the policy rate from -0.1% to 0.2% a year from now.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

In this episode, we talk about why we are still positive on Japanese stocks despite key indices retreating from all-time highs.

This episode is presented by Cheng Hin Saw, Head of Equities Specialists Asia, and Kelly Chia, Deputy Head of Research Asia.

In this Next Generation episode of Beyond Markets Damien Ng, Next Generation Research Analyst at Julius Baer, and Laurenz Kellenberger, Chief Scientific Officer at Basilea, join us to discuss antimicrobial resistance, its causes, and its potentially devastating consequences.

Employment data suggests slower wage inflation and overall inflation ahead, and therefore lower interest rates. The S&P is up 26% since its interim low in October 2023, the same return as all of 2021, but in a third the time. A change pf key personnel at the US State Department may signify a change in policy. A cease-fire in Ukraine would be a real positive for Europe, and would also mean lower energy prices, a win for President Biden. Government and central bank sources in Japan are leaking that a policy change is afoot. If union-management wage negotiations for this year show a rise equivalent or more than last year’s, it would be the excuse the Bank of Japan needs to end quantitative easing, and raise interest rates. Even if the yen goes up 5% vs. dollar over the next 12 months (which is our forecast), it will still be one of the most competitive currencies in the world.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

Managing money successfully is more than just avoiding mistakes. For Julius Baer Chief Investment Officer Yves Bonzon, it comes down to having a solid investment approach built on core investment beliefs that provide a framework. This allows us to make investment decisions in a disciplined way and not based on the twists and turns of the market.

In the first episode of our How we Manage Money series, Yves Bonzon joins journalist Hannah Wise to discuss this framework including how it helps us manage risks, spot and mitigate an incoming crisis, and incorporate the key forces driving the markets.  

In this monthly China update, our experts discuss top of mind issues including takeaways from the National People’s Congress, the role of quantitative funds in China and the outlook for the Hong Kong property market.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

In this episode, we talk about extended markets and a very data heavy week. Nvidia dethrones Saudi Aramco to be the 3rd largest stock in the world and we do a comparison of today’s Magnificent 7 stocks to the Dotcom.

This episode is presented by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Research, Asia).

In this episode, we talk about US and Japanese stock markets that are at all-time highs and what could derail the Artificial Intelligence (AI) party. Mr Warren Buffet’s c.USD168bn dollar cash pile looks to grow with “little deal flow”.

This episode is presented by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Research, Asia).

It’s a fact of life that marriages can fail – and for families who want to preserve their wealth from spousal claims, this becomes a contentious issue. In order to keep matters fair for all parties, what should wealth creators do? And if you’re on the cusp of married life, how can you broach the subject with your spouse-to-be? In this episode, tune into the fascinating insights of Martyn Carre, Head of Key Clients and Positioning, Fiduciary Services at Julius Baer.

The emerging market bond market is offering some interesting yields in absolute terms at the moment, and we expect the rate-cutting cycle in developed markets to start later this year, which should support emerging market hard currency debt. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Helen Freer, Investment Writer, talks to Esteban Polidura, Head of Americas Investment Strategy, and Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategist, about this segment of the bond market and why we currently like it.

01:15 Why do we like EM hard-currency bonds?
04:27 Why invest in EM hard-currency debt rather than equities?
05:33 What about investing in developed market high-yield debt?
06:49 Do we like any regions in EM in particular?
09:00 Shorter-dated or longer-dated bonds?
09:42 Why we like EM hard-currency bonds and not local currency bonds?
12:30 What risks are involved in such investments?

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We talk about how an external shock could be a welcome reset for stock markets and why Japan's stock market seems to be ignoring it's technical recession.

This episode is presented by Kelly Chia, Deputy Head of Research, Asia.

After multiple years of underperformance, we believe that 2024 could be a comeback year for the Singapore Real Estate Investment Trusts (S-REITs), with the macro tide turning towards expectations of a pause in the hiking cycle and cut in interest rates. The sector’s significant underperformance positions them well for a short term rebound trade – albeit with some volatility, given the data dependent nature of the Fed pivot. We maintain a neutral view over the medium term as high but stable interest rates are likely to continue putting upward pressure on interest costs, slowing distributable income growth. Investors can consider three ways to augment REIT returns in the current climate: 1) Buy the quality laggards, 2) Invest in the inorganic growers, and for more risk tolerant investors: 3) Consider quality Greater China names with turnaround potential as a source of long term upside.

This episode is presented by Jen-Ai Chua, Research Analyst in Singapore

The January core consumer price index rose 0.4% month/month, the highest reading since 1995 excluding the pandemic. The culprit was lodging (hotels and motels), which is unlikely to be repeated. Still the CPI reading may be an excuse for a pull-back in the S&P 500 index of in the high single digits or even low double-digits, even as the market is (we believe) in a primary bull trend. Vice President Kamala Harris said “I am ready to serve. There’s no question about that”. Her popularity is however as low as Biden’s. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said President Joe Biden’s age is a “legitimate” issue. She has an ardent fan base among the 400 superdelegates who will decide the Democrat candidate in August. 

In this episode, our experts discuss the topic of sustainable investing, regulatory changes and the latest developments in sustainability initiatives. They debunk the negativity associated with ESG and greenwashing, share the Julius Baer Sustainable Investment Methodology, and elaborate on success cases of companies that have transitioned into more sustainable business models.

Tune into this insightful episode featuring Isak Ahlbom, Head of Sustainable Investment Methodology in Switzerland, along with Laura Wong, Fixed Income Specialist in Singapore, to find out more.

In this monthly China update, we discuss key questions including - Why is market sentiment so poor and is it comparable to the situation in 2015? Will recent measures to support the market make a difference? What is the outlook for the Chinese property market and high-end manufacturing? And finally, have Chinese government bond yields bottomed?

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

For our listeners who celebrate Lunar New Year, we wish you a happy and prosperous Year of the Dragon!

In this episode, our experts discuss the market outlook for 2024 and offer valuable strategies for various asset classes and effective portfolio management. Covering market trends to regional client positioning observations, they share practical advice on managing home-bias and explore important topics including active vs passive investing, relevance of the classic 60:40 asset allocation, the role of alternative investments and much more.

Don’t miss this insightful episode featuring Yves Klenk, Head of Markets & Wealth Management Solutions Hong Kong and Head of Investment Advisory Hong Kong, along with Saumil Sheth, Senior Investment Advisor and Head of Global NRI & Private Banking International Market Segments Singapore. Tune in to know more.

In this episode of “The Week in Markets”, we focus on the market dynamics after the strong print of non-farm payroll in the US. While some investors are concerned about the valuations and positioning of US megacap stocks, our analysis suggests that they are far from frothy, with solid earnings delivery supporting further outperformance. In contrast, the liquidity dynamics in the Chinese market look more challenging.

This is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head Research Hong Kong of Bank Julius Baer.

Japan is one of the best performing markets year to date. In this episode, we lay out why has Japan done well and what we can expect for its future performance.

This episode is presented by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Research, Asia).

Rather than oil pastel or charcoal, artist Refik Anadol’s medium of choice is data. Nicolas de Skowronski, Head Wealth Management Solutions at Julius Baer, met Refik at Art Basel 2023 to discuss the exciting applications of AI in the art and business world. Listen now to hear their conversation.

In rising 1.2% on Friday last week, the S&P 500 index went to a new high. In the 14 previous times since 1950 when the index went to a new high after a year or more months without one, it was up a year later in all but one, and the average return in all 14 times was 15%. With equal-weighted indices still below their highs, this is still a technology-driven bull market. Past presidential election cycles show the market tends to do well both 6 months before and after elections, regardless of the ideology of the winner.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia Pacific.

In the wake of the global financial crisis in 2008, the wealth management industry was bracing itself for significant disruption. Fintechs were poised to take over and traditional institutions looked to be facing a turbulent future. But over a decade later, the reality is somewhat different. 

In this Next Generation episode of Beyond Markets, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, to discuss why disrupting the financial industry has been more difficult than thought and what we can expect going forward.

After global inflation and growth rates finally slowed down in 2023, what should investors expect for 2024?

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast ‘Market Outlook 2024 – the start of a new cycle’, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, talk to Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer about the current and expected market environment as the new economic cycle unfolds, and what opportunities this should present.

00:33 Introduction
01:16 When will rate cuts begin?
03:22 Global growth and inflation expectations for 2024
04:29 A soft landing is expected
05:43 Risks from China
09:04 Our key calls for 2024
13:27 Fixed income in focus
16:38 Emerging markets bond recommendations
19:27 Developed market equities- Quality growth and a defensive tilt
23:25 Add cyclicals in anticipation of the new cycle
24:29 Japanese equities
27:44 Swiss assets
29:39 Commodities
31:23 US election year

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