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Coronavirus! Climate! Brexit! Trump! Politics has never been more unpredictable, more alarming or more interesting: Talking Politics is the podcast that tries to make sense of it all. Every week David Runciman and Helen Thompson talk to the most interesting people around about the ideas and events that shape our world: from history to economics, from philosophy to fiction. What does the future hold?
Can democracy survive? How crazy will it get? This is the political conversation that matters.
Talking Politics is brought to you in partnership with the London Review of Books, Europe's leading magazine of books and ideas.
- 417 - New Podcast: These Times
UnHerd political editor Tom McTague and Cambridge professor Helen Thompson team up to investigate the history of today’s politics — and what it means for our future. Each week they will explore the great forces, ideas and events that led us to where we are, whether in Britain, the United States, Europe or beyond. It’s a politics podcast for those who want a deeper, historical understanding of the news, to understand what has really shaped our world and why.
We hope you enjoy!
Don’t forget to please rate, like and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts — and, of course, to get in touch with all your questions and comments so we can respond in future episodes.
Email us at thesetimes@unherd.com or tweet us at @thesetimespod
Thu, 11 May 2023 - 0min - 416 - New Podcast: Where Are You Going?
Talking Politics producer Catherine Carr returns to her role as mic-wielder in 'Where Are You Going?' a unique storytelling podcast, delivered in bite-size episodes.
Called 'utterly compelling and unique' by the Financial Times, 'engrossing' by The Times and 'riveting' by The Spectator.
In each episode, Catherine interrupts people as they go about their everyday lives and asks simply; "Where are you going?"
The conversations that follow are always unpredictable: sometimes funny, sometimes heart-breaking, silly, romantic or downright 'stop-you-in-your-tracks' surprising.
Be transported to places around the world and into the lives of others. What story is coming next? You just never know....
'Where Are You Going?' is produced by the team at Loftus Media. New episodes are published twice a week, every Tuesday and Friday.
Subscribe
WebsiteMon, 24 Apr 2023 - 3min - 415 - New Podcast: Past Present Future
Past Present Future is a new weekly podcast with David Runciman, host of Talking Politics, exploring the history of ideas from politics to philosophy, culture to technology. David talks to historians, novelists, scientists and many others about where the most interesting ideas come from, what they mean, and why they matter.
Ideas from the past, questions about the present, shaping the future.
Brought to you in partnership with the London Review of Books.
New episodes every Thursday. Just subscribe to Past Present Future wherever you get your podcasts.
Fri, 21 Apr 2023 - 2min - 414 - Finale
David, Helen and Catherine get together for our final episode, to reflect on podcasting through six extraordinary years of politics, and what it means to be ending at the beginning of a war. We talk about the current crisis, how it connects to the crises of the past, and where it might fit in to the crises of the future. This episode is dedicated to Finbarr Livesey and Aaron Rapport.
So you don’t miss us too much…
You can follow Catherine’s work on Relatively and The Exchange on R4. She tweets @CatherineECarrRead David in the pages of the LRBOr check out his most recent book, Confronting Leviathan Helen’s new book, Disorder is now out! And she writes a column for the New Statesman and tweets @HelenHet20Our website - keep an eye out for archive curation - underway soon!In grateful memory of our colleagues Aaron Rapport and Finbarr Livesey
Thu, 03 Mar 2022 - 39min - 413 - Helen Thompson/Disorder
For our penultimate episode, David talks to Helen about her new book Disorder: Hard Times in the Twenty-First Century. It’s a conversation about many of the themes Helen has explored on Talking Politics over the years, from the energy transition to the perils of QE, from the travails of the Eurozone to the crisis of democracy, from China to America, from the past to the present to the future. In this book, she brings all these themes together to help make sense of the world we’re in.
Talking Points:
Suez is often seen as a crisis of British imperial hubris. But it’s also about energy.
The US wanted Western European countries to import oil from the Middle East.But the US at the time was not a military power in the region.So the US essentially became a guarantor of Western European energy security, but implementation was dependent on British imperial power in the region.When Eisenhower pulled the plug on Suez, Europe panicked.The aftermath was hugely consequential.
France turned to Algeria, but that went badly.Europe also embraced nuclear power to pursue energy self-sufficiency.And finally, this precipitated a turn to Soviet oil and gas and the construction of pipelines between Soviet territories and Western Europe.The shale boom was a double-edged sword: it also destabilized the alliance with Saudi Arabia and increased competition between the US and Russia.
Meanwhile, Chinese demand has been increasing. The US today imports much less oil from the Persian Gulf, but the US Navy still provides energy security in the region, even though most of that oil goes to China and Japan.QE created a wholly new situation in the Eurozone.
Everyone in the Eurozone game essentially understands that if QE is going to continue, there will be constraints around what can happen in Italian domestic politics.The current prime minister of Italy is the former president of the ECB.One of the risks of democracy is democratic excess. But democracies can also experience aristocratic excess.
In US elections, people need a lot of money to compete. This means that there is not really an outlet for genuine democratic demands.Mentioned in this Episode:
Helen’s book, DisorderJames Macdonald, A Free Nation Deep in DebtFurther Learning:
More on Nord Stream 2 Helen, on how the rich captured modern democraciesHelen on Ukraine for the New StatesmanWhy the Ukraine crisis is a modern crisisAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 24 Feb 2022 - 46min - 412 - The Meaning of Macron
David talks to Shahin Vallee and Chris Bickerton about the upcoming French presidential elections. Can anything or anyone stop Macron? Why has French politics moved so far to the right? And what do left and right still mean in the absence of economic disagreement? Plus we discuss what the Macron years - the five that have gone and the five probably still to come - have taught us about the changing character of European politics.
Thu, 17 Feb 2022 - 45min - 411 - The Meaning of Boris Johnson
David, Helen and Chris Brooke have one more go at making sense of the tangled web that is British politics. Can Johnson really survive, and even if he does, can his brand ever recover? Is this a scandal, is it a crisis, or is it something else entirely? Does history offer any guide to what comes next? Plus we explore what might be the really big lessons from the last two years of Covid-dominated politics.
Talking Points:
It’s obvious why Boris is a problem, but it’s not clear who would replace him.
There will probably need to be a decisive marker, either the May local elections or the police report could be it.The strategic question for the Conservative party is, can it win enough seats to form a stable majority government?Boris won’t go voluntarily. But can he survive?
Newer MPs are not loyal to Johnson, but older ones are more wary of defenestrating a leader who won big majorities.A lot of people have left number 10. It will be hard for him to govern.In 2015, Ed Miliband was leading in the headline polls. But there were signs of weakness.
Labour wasn’t winning local elections. And Cameron was polling better on two key questions: leadership and the economy.Labour has now moved ahead on both. It would still be hard for Labour to win an overall majority, but defeat in local elections might spook the Conservatives.The politics of scandal are different from the politics of crisis.
Scandals change how politics are conducted, but they don’t usually trash the party’s reputation.Helen thinks that it is a politics of chaos.This particular scandal is bound up in Johnson’s appeal.
On most issues, the outrage of the other side works for Johnson.Outrage about the parties is different: Johnson was a hypocrite.He has trashed his own brand this time, but he still doesn’t think the game is over.Were the pandemic years a dress rehearsal for the politics of climate change?
To reach net zero, governments will need to ask people to make sacrifices. Will future politics be a politics of limits?The pandemic has also deepened generational divides.Mentioned in this Episode:
Recent polling dataFurther Learning:
Isaac Chotiner asks David about hypocrisy and Partygate Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves on Labour optimismDavid on Dominic Cummings’ blogFrom the archive… Who is Boris Johnson?And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 10 Feb 2022 - 52min - 410 - Putin’s Next Move
David and Helen talk to Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor of the Economist, about what Vladimir Putin hopes to get out of the Ukraine crisis and what anyone can do to stop him. Is some sort of invasion inevitable? Is Russia’s goal to sow dissent or to achieve regime change? What leverage does the rest of world have over Putin and his allies? Plus we explore where the roots of the crisis lie: in 2014, in the end of the Cold War, or even earlier still?
Talking Points:
What does Putin want from Ukraine?
He wants to stop Ukraine’s westward shift, which is about more than NATO. Ukraine was probably not ever going to join NATO. In that regard, Putin already has what he wants.What else is he upset about? Britain is building a naval base on the Sea of Azov. Britain and the UK are training Ukrainian troops. Weapons are flowing in, too. Putin worries about Ukraine becoming a more militarily and economically capable actor.What would Putin count as a success in the current crisis?
Logistically speaking, Putin could stay there for months. But he has troops from the Eastern military district there, who can’t. And the weather will change after March. Perhaps the biggest problem is psychological: backing down would look like giving in. Does Russia want regime change?Kiev seems less convinced about the imminence of an invasion.
Are they deluded? They definitely want to avoid panic, especially economic panic.What is different today from 2014?
Ukraine is in an even worse economic position. Ukraine is a transit gas state; Putin has been trying to end that for a long time, and he is getting close with the near completion of Nordstream.Another difference is America’s position in the world.NATO allies should still feel reasonably secure.
But in middle areas, such as Ukraine, or the countries in central Asia, things are less certain.Mentioned in this Episode:
Shashank’s latest for the Economist: How big is Russia’s military buildup around Ukraine?More on Biden’s global posture reviewAn interview with Dmitri Trenin: are we on the brink of war?Further Learning:
Our last episode with ShashankMore on javelin missiles in UkraineMore on the Russia-Belarus integrationAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 03 Feb 2022 - 50min - 409 - The Next Big Thing
David talks to John Naughton about what’s coming next in the tech revolution and where it’s taking us. From quantum computing to cryptocurrency, from AI to the Internet of Things: what’s hype, what’s for real and how will it shape our politics. Plus we discuss what China understands about technology that the rest of the world might have missed.
Talking Points:
The metaverse is the next big thing in Silicon Valley. It feels like the logical conclusion of prevailing trends.
This is not actually a radical break.The gaming industry is developing the metaverse. And big tech is investing heavily in gaming. The metaverse bypasses many elements of the real world that people like Zuckerberg are keen on, such as government regulation.What will be the next big technological shift? Are we in a kind of lull?
The internet of things has not gone away.Blockchain, which enables crypto, is still a significant technology.Proponents of Web3 want to disrupt centralized control of the Internet.Does the Chinese system show us that there is another choice on technology?
The general view of autocracy is that it can’t be done. The problem is imperfect information.Has technology made it possible to escape the autocrat’s trap?Technology has undeniably changed our lives, but the liberatory promise does not seem to have been realized.
When will technology give us control over our own time? The kind of capitalism that drives the tech industry is unstable unless it grows.The relentlessness of consumer society is antithetical to a particular kind of creativity and a particular kind of politics.Mentioned in this Episode:
John’s column for the ObserverNeal Stephennson, Snow CrashJohn on TP talking about LibraKeynes’ essay, ‘Economic possibilities for our grandchildren’History of Ideas, Hannah Arendt on ActionThe Minderoo Centre for Technology and DemocracyFurther Learning:
What is the metaverse, exactly? What is Web3? More on Microsoft’s takeover of Activision BlizzardAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 27 Jan 2022 - 42min - 408 - American Civil War?
One year on from Joe Biden’s inauguration David and Helen talk with Gary Gerstle about what’s gone wrong. What is the strategy behind this presidency? Has it tried to do too much or too little? And are the dark warnings of another American civil war really plausible? Plus we discuss whether the original American Civil War should really be used as the template for political breakdown.
Talking Points:
It’s hard to be a transformational president when your congressional margin is as slim as Biden’s is.
Are critics being too harsh? Unemployment is down, the pandemic recovery was quicker than anticipated, and there is a broader renegotiation of work conditions for lower-paid workers. But these are not the seismic shifts many hoped for. Biden may want to be a transformational president, but the conditions do not suit transformational politics.Did an overreading of Trump’s incompetence on the pandemic inflate expectations of Biden?What would Biden’s presidency look like if Democrats did not have a majority in the Senate?
The unexpected victories in Georgia have also led to heightened scrutiny of the holdout Democrats, Sinema and Manchin. Republican senators seem to be getting a free pass.Are fears about a looming American civil war overblown?
What do we mean by civil war? The idea of the federal government fighting a group of secessionist states seems inconceivable. The notion of factions vying for control over the center is somewhat more plausible.The American Civil War was not just about tribalism or ideology. There were incompatible political economic systems. The very fact that the United States has had a Civil War, however, is still part of American politics. As T.S. Eliot said, ‘Serious civil wars never come to an end.’Will the burgeoning discourse around illegitimate election results actually translate into more overt political violence in the future?Mentioned in this Episode:
Biden’s recent speech on voting rightsBarbara Walter’s book, How Civil Wars StartGary’s forthcoming book, The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal OrderFurther Learning:
Is Civil War coming to America? More on Merrick Garland’s investigation Eric Foner for the LRB on the electoral collegeAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 20 Jan 2022 - 53min - 407 - Two Topics for 2022
To kick off the new year David and Helen are joined by historian Robert Saunders to talk about two possible trends for the next twelve months. Could Labour and the Lib Dem’s really find electoral common ground to defeat the Tories? And is Netzero scepticism about to become a serious force on the British right? A conversation about history, coalitions, energy prices, populism and the return of Nigel Farage. Coming up on Talking Politics: Biden one year on.
Talking Points:
By-elections and opinion polls suggest that the Conservative Party might be in trouble.
Labour did badly in the by-elections but it is doing better in the polls. Is there a way of getting the Tories out without some combination of Lib Dem and Labour opposition? The Lib Dems can win in seats where Labour is not competitive.There are no prospects for the Labour Party becoming the largest party, given the situation in Scotland, without the Lib Dems taking seats from the Conservatives.The Lib Dems struggle when Labour is perceived as being too far to the left.What complicates things now is the Scottish question.
The prospect of a Labour-SNP coalition presents a different type of problem.Should the parties stand down candidates? Can you compel tactical voting? Should you?Is there potential for serious opposition to climate-centric politics in the coming years?
There is a growing, although still constrained, opposition to net zero politics on the right. Farage wants to stoke this. It’s not exactly climate skepticism, but rather skepticism over the policies put forward to tackle it. This is already happening in Australia and the United States, but these are countries where fossil fuel producers have a lot of power. This is emerging now because of what is happening with energy prices.Is there an unoccupied political space between techno-utopianism and net zero skepticism?
Johnson is keen on the green-growth strategy, but so far, the evidence on green jobs is not that convincing.Covid showed us that the public can take more realism than politicians often assume.Mentioned in this Episode:
Keir Starmer’s new year speechMichael Crick’s forthcoming biography of Nigel FarageRobert’s Twitter accountFurther Learning:
More on Conservative opposition to Net ZeroHelen on the timid political debate over green energyAdam Tooze on realism, progressivism, and Net ZeroAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 06 Jan 2022 - 49min - 406 - Boris: The Ghost of Christmas Present
David and Helen talk through what’s going on with the prime minister, the pandemic and the state of British politics. Is Johnson still in touch with public opinion on Covid? Why is hypocrisy more toxic than lying? What are the historical parallels - if any - for the Tories recent by-election disasters? Plus we try to decide what 2021 will be remembered for politically in the years to come.
Thu, 23 Dec 2021 - 49min - 405 - 1848 and All That
David and Helen talk to historian Chris Clark about the 1848 revolutions and what they teach us about political change. What explains the contagiousness of the revolutionary moment? Is it possible to combine parliamentary reform with street politics? Where does counter-revolution get its power?
The revolutions of 1848 started with a small civil war in Switzerland in 1847.
In 1848, there was a cascade of simultaneous uprisings across the continent. There were the spring revolutions; then in the summer, the liberal and conservative wings began to fight each other.In the autumn, counter revolutions began in earnest. But the left revived itself, launching revolution 2.0. Finally, in the summer of 1849, the counter revolution largely prevailed.These were revolutions about political and social order, but also about national order.
The Hungarians, for example, declared independence from Vienna and fought not just against the Austrians but against a range of other nationalities.What accounts for the simultaneity of these revolutions?
A continent-wide socio-economic crisis began with an agrarian crisis in 1845. Food became much more expensive at a time when people spent most of their money on food.The agrarian crisis then triggered a downturn in trade and consumption.Why wasn’t there a revolution in Britain?
One reason is that the country was so efficiently policed.Another is that Britain was able to export potentially problematic people to the colonies. The imperial economy also allowed them to outsource price-shock problems.The forces of counterrevolution were primarily those of monarchism and money.
Europe already had an order, the order of 1815; monarchs wanted to restore it.Revolutions are spontaneous, but counterrevolutionaries can bide their time strategically.The liberal great powers didn’t support the revolutions, but the conservative ones supported the counter revolutions.You can also read this as the death throes of the counterrevolutionary order. They won’t make common cause again.The revolutions of 1848 combined radical street politics with legislative politics. The institutional side of the revolution seemed to win.
Constitutions proliferated after 1848. The tense relationship between the street and representative processes is at the core of what these revolutions were about.
Chris’ lecture on the 1848 revolutions for the LRBAnd his LRB essayFrom our archives… Why Constitutions Matter with Linda ColleyIn Our Time on the Taiping RebellionOur History of Ideas series… Marx and Engels on RevolutionAnd Rosa Luxemburg on RevolutionThe TP guide to… European Union before the EUThu, 16 Dec 2021 - 52min - 402 - Supply Chains, Inflation & the Metaverse
In a special episode recorded live at the Bristol Festival of Economics, David and Helen talk to Ed Conway, Economics Editor at Sky News, about the biggest challenges facing the global economy. How will the supply chain crisis be fixed? Is inflation the threat it appears? Can the world economic system really wean itself off coal? Plus we discuss whether Mark Zuckerberg’s metaverse will ever escape the brute facts of economic material reality.
Thu, 02 Dec 2021 - 56min - 401 - Where is China Heading?
Helen and David talk to Cindy Yu, host of the Chinese Whispers podcast, about the trajectory of Chinese politics. What is Beijing’s political strategy for Hong Kong and Taiwan? Is Xi Jinping really a socialist? Can the CCP escape its history? Plus, what’s the real reason Xi didn’t show up in Glasgow?
Talking Points:
Before the pandemic, the central questions about China in the West revolved around Hong Kong. Now we don’t talk about it so much.
Both the West and China itself seem to think that China has the situation under control.The pandemic made protest harder. It also meant that the media on the ground was focusing on something else.Beijing called the financial companies’ bluff: they didn’t leave when the political situation got worse.China is trying to repair its territorial claims.
In some ways, the situation in Hong Kong has made conflict with Taiwan more likely. One country, two systems no longer seems plausible. The window of reunification may be closing. Xi would probably not want to go in for a long, drawn-out war.This is a precarious situation: the risks of miscalculation are enormous.
What would the West need to do to preemptively deter China? It’s not clear that this would actually be good for China.The CCP apparatus is incredibly opaque.
That said, it appears that the party is more unified now than it was before.Xi is delivering, and if he continues to do so, he will probably not face too much pushback within the party.There was a domestic reason for Xi to skip COP: it coincided with the Sixth Plenum.How ideological is Xi’s project?
China is moving away from pragmatism, not necessarily because of Xi Jinping thought.Ideology is most evident in economics.Xi is now talking about common prosperity after decades of rampant inequality.The policies associated with common prosperity probably would not fly in the West.Xi thinks that fixing economic problems is one way to head off social problems.Mentioned in this Episode:
Cindy’s podcast, Chinese WhispersCindy’s podcast episode with Oriana Skylar MastroVictor Shih at UC San DiegoFurther Learning:
More on the Biden-Xi virtual summitThe Talking Politics Guide to… The Chinese Communist PartyAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 18 Nov 2021 - 47min - 400 - Climate Ambition vs Energy Reality
David and Helen talk to Jason Bordoff, Dean of the Columbia Climate School and former Special Assistant to Barack Obama, about climate, COP26 and the enormous challenges of the energy transition. How can we balance the need for energy security with the need to wean the world off its dependency on fossil fuels? Why is China still so reliant on coal? Who will pay for the energy needs of the developing world? Plus, just how scared are the oil companies of public opinion? You can read more of Jason’s work here.
Talking Points:
Energy transition will require a lot of capital investment.
Clean energy tends to be more capital intensive in the short term; although the long-term operating costs are lower.Private capital needs to be mobilized to make this happen. Can large financial institutions forgo significant returns if oil prices go back up?There is a clash between climate ambition and energy reality.
The reality is that, despite tremendous advances in clean energy, oil and gas usage are still going up. The more the ambition is elevated, the bigger this gap becomes.During a lockdown that shut down half of the global economy, carbon emissions only fell 6%.
To reach the 1.5 degree target, emissions need to decrease much more quickly.We might start seeing more disruptive and ambitious policies on the table in coming years. Or, maybe not. When questions of energy affordability, reliability, and security come into tension with climate ambition, there is a risk that climate ambition will lose. Is increasing efficiency enough, or will energy consumption also need to go down?In many parts of the world, energy use will actually need to increase in the coming decades.
What is needed to make significant investments in clean energy in the developing world financially viable?Some people, like John Kerry, hoped that the U.S. and China might find a point of consensus on climate.
In practice, that has not really happened.Could economic competition be a more effective driver than cooperation?If we always see high oil prices as a political problem that we can’t afford, then how will we get to the point at which we allow high prices to reduce demand?
The United States is the world’s largest oil producer, but the U.S. government has much less control over American oil and gas producers than OPEC states do.Should we be talking more about energy and less about climate?Mentioned in this Episode:
The Columbia Climate SchoolJason’s recent article in Foreign Policy on energy in the developing worldJason, on why everything you think about the geopolitics of climate change is wrongJason’s podcast, Columbia Energy ExchangeFurther Learning:
How much will it cost the UK to reach net zero?Thu, 04 Nov 2021 - 51min - 399 - Hilary Mantel
In a special episode recorded in front of a live audience, Helen and David talk to Hilary Mantel about power, monarchy and political intrigue. From the Tudors to the present, from Henry VIII to Boris Johnson, from Thomas Cromwell to Dominic Cummings. A fascinating insight into politics and the writer’s imagination, from one of the greatest modern novelists.
Mentioned in this Episode:
Mantel Pieces, a new collection of Hilary’s LRB essays‘Royal Bodies’ (from 2013)The Wolf Hall trilogyA Place of Greater Safety David and Helen on Hilary Mantel (from April 2020)And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 28 Oct 2021 - 53min - 398 - Free with Lea Ypi
David talks with Lea Ypi about her astonishing new memoir Free: Coming of Age at the End of History, which tells the story of her childhood in Stalinist Albania and what came after. It’s a tale of family secrets, political oppression and the promise of liberation - and a profound meditation on what it really means to be free. From Marxism to liberalism and back again, this is a conversation that brings political ideas to life. Lea Ypi is Professor of Political Theory at the LSE and Freehas been shortlisted for the Baillie Gifford Prize
Talking Points:
Albania was a socialist country that went through various alliances.
By the time that Lea was born, it was largely isolated.The dominant narrative was that Albania was a country surrounded by empires, which stood on the moral high-ground.In other words, it was socialist and anti-imperialist but also fiercely nationalist.For Albania, the key year was not 1989 but 1990.
Initially, dissidents were described as ‘hooligans.’In December 1990, protesters requested political pluralism.How do we conceptualize freedom?
People in Western countries often relate to non-liberal societies by conceptualizing themselves as liberators.What does freedom mean in a limit-case like Albania? There is a risk of paternalism in the dominant liberal conceptions of freedom. There are always margins of dissidence.What does it feel like to suddenly gain freedom in the liberal sense? How does this affect relations between generations?For Lea, freedom is about being the author of your own fate, even when it seems overdetermined.
Studying political ideas can make one a nihilist, or you can choose to believe that there is something about humans that is inherently moral.In other words, freedom is moral agency.Mentioned in this Episode:
Lea’s new book, FreeLea on political legitimacy in Marxist perspectiveBook tickets for our upcoming event with Hilary MantelFurther Learning:
Lea in the Guardian on growing up in Europe’s last communist stateMore on Albania after the fall of communism from the FTMore on Enver HoxhaMore on the Albanian-Soviet splitLea talks to David and Helen about states of emergencyTP History of Ideas on Fukuyama and the ‘End of History’Thu, 21 Oct 2021 - 56min - 397 - German Lessons
David and Helen are joined by Politico’s chief Europe correspondent Matthew Karnitschnig to explore the consequences of the German elections. Who were the real winners and losers? Are there lessons for centre-left parties in other countries, including the Labour Party in Britain? And what are the choices facing Germany as it decides on its place in an increasingly unstable world? Plus we ask whether this was a Covid election. If not, why not?
Talking Points:
What was surprising about the German elections?
To expect something is different from seeing it actually happen.Do campaigns make a difference to election outcomes?
In this case, it looks like it did. It was pretty clear that Laschet was a poor candidate.Laschet’s response to the floods was a turning point.Scholz prevailed because of his experience—he isn’t perceived as a change candidate.
The SPD base has moved to the left, but Scholz is more of a centrist. The CDU, on the other hand, was much less stable.Most German voters wanted change, and yet it is the continuity Merkel candidate who is most likely to become the next chancellor.
This reflects grand coalition politics. Merkel pushed the Christian Democrats into the space of the Social Democrats. But the initiative to form this government is coming from the change parties: the Greens and the FDP.The parties seem to believe that their differences are bridgeable.
The two smaller parties are more popular among younger people. Change might be driven from below. The larger party only has about 26 percent; this gives the other parties more leverage.What kind of change would be embraced by both the FDP and the Greens?Mentioned in this Episode:
Peter Tiede on German schadenfreude in the TimesThe German election resultsWhat are the coalition options after Germany’s election?Further Learning:
Matthew Karnitschnig on Olaf Scholz, the ‘teflon candidate’More on Merkel’s legacy for the FTMore on Germany policy towards ChinaBackground on the Scholz money-laundering scandalOur most recent episode on GermanyHear more of Matthew on Politico's podcast on European politics, EU Confidential, which he hosts.
And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 07 Oct 2021 - 53min - 396 - Shutdown/Confronting Leviathan
We’re back from our summer break with David, Helen and Adam Tooze exploring what the pandemic has revealed about politics, economics and the new world order. From Covid crisis to China crisis to climate crisis: how does it all fit together? And what comes next? Adam’s new book is Shutdown: How Covid Shook the World’s Economy. Plus David talks about his new book based on series one of History of Ideas: Confronting Leviathan.
Talking Points:
The term ‘lockdown’ can be misleading. Many aspects of the response were not top-down.
Most of the reduction in mobility predated government mandate.The financial markets made huge moves and central banks then had to step in.The popular response cannot be separated from the actions of the state.The term ‘shutdown’ better captures the pandemic’s impact on the economy.
Huge parts of the productive economy literally ground to a halt. It seems like central banks learned something from the last crisis.Is there still a realistic prospect of normalization? Adam and Helen are skeptical.Is there such thing as democratic money?
If so, then democracy has changed.The condition of possibility for the freedom of action of central bankers is a political vacuum.Parts of the left see an opportunity in monetary politics.The entire monetary order in China is political, but there was a debate within the regime over stimulus.
The conservatives won out.Some Western financial leaders used this to push back against central bankers in their own countries.The Republican party is becoming increasingly incoherent.
Some, such as Mnuchin, emphasize the structural necessity of some kind of continuity. Others, such as Jay Powell, argue that the priority is confronting China. There is an ongoing de-centering from the West in a dollar-based world.The U.S.-China competition has changed.
We have moved from a realm of competition over GDP growth rates to a much starker contest involving hard power.The tech sanctions are a sovereignty issue, not just an economic issue.Mentioned in this Episode:
Adam’s new book, ShutdownJames Meadway on neoliberalismRudiger Dornbusch, Essays (1998/2001)Quinn Slobodian on right-wing globalistsPerry Anderson’s review of Adam’s work, and Adam’s responseMarx’s Capital Volume 1Helen’s book, Oil and the Western Economic CrisisDaniela Gabor on macrofinanceThu, 23 Sep 2021 - 1h 04min - 395 - Q & A with Helen and David: Trump and Everything Else
Our final session of answering your questions, starting with Trump and moving on to where we get our ideas from and what we've learned from all our failed predictions. Plus, were the 1990s really the decade of missed opportunity? After this, Talking Politics is taking a summer break. We will be back in September with lots of new things to talk about. See you then! We hope you have a lovely summer and thank you so much for listening.
Thu, 08 Jul 2021 - 53min - 394 - Q & A With Helen and David: UK Politics and the Union
The second part of our attempt to answer your questions, this week covering British politics. Helen and David tackle whether Labour can win, what happened to the Lib Dems, where the Greens are heading and what's in store for the Union. Plus, how much is being held together by the Queen and what will happen when she is no longer around? Next week, Trump, and much more.
Talking UK Politics…
Our State of the Union Series:
On ScotlandOn Northern IrelandOn WalesOn EnglandFrom our archives:
Election Fallout (May 2021)Where is the Opposition? (December 2020)Labour and Brexit: Beyond the Crisis (May 2020)What’s the Future for Labour? (January 2020)Party like it’s 1974 (November 2019)The Party Splits! (In 1846!)Who is Jeremy Corbyn? (February 2018)And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 01 Jul 2021 - 58min - 393 - Q & A with Helen and David: Geopolitics
In the first of a short series of episodes, Helen and David do their best to answer your questions about anything and everything. Here, it's the geopolitics of vaccines, Germany as a 'useful idiot', the Great Game in the 21st century, oil prices, green finance and the risks and rewards of 'Japanification'. Next week, they tackle UK politics and the future of the Union.
Talking Geopolitics… from our archives
Michael Lewis on the Pandemic (June 2021)After Merkel… What? With Hans Kundnani (April 2021)The Tragic Choices of Climate Change with Adam Tooze (March 2021)Germany, Italy, Coalitions and Vaccines (January 2021)China, Climate, Covid: The New Energy Map with David Yergin (November 2020)Post-COVID economics… with Adam Tooze (November 2020)Adam Tooze on US vs China (May 2019)Oil! With Helen (June 2017)And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 24 Jun 2021 - 50min - 392 - Ed Miliband's Big Ideas
David talks to Ed Miliband about the thinking behind his new book Go Big. What are the ideas that have the power to change British politics? If they have been shown to work elsewhere, why are they so hard to make happen? Is it the politicians or the public who are reluctant to make the shift? Plus, we discuss whether the Tories might be better at the politics of change than Labour.
Mentioned in this Episode:
Ed’s new book, Go Big: How to Fix Our WorldEd’s podcast, Reasons to be CheerfulFurther Learning:
Ed on why the Labour Party should think big for the GuardianMore on the Vienna model of social housingMatthew Brown on what Preston council can teach LabourAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 17 Jun 2021 - 45min - 391 - Covid-Union-Labour-Brexit-Climate
This week David and Helen take stock of the state of British politics, looking at how the big themes of the last year fit together. They try to join the dots between the pandemic and the fraying of the Union, the weakness of the Labour party and the fraught politics of climate change, along with the lingering impact of Brexit on everything. We are also looking for your questions on these topics too - please let us know what you would like David and Helen to discuss next: https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/contact
Talking Points:
Incumbents, under the conditions of vaccine politics, have done well.
The next phase will be about the economy, but we aren’t out of the vaccine stage yet.When an inquiry happens, there will be some tough questions about the British state.If the economic recovery goes well, there will be space for critical reflection. But if recovery stalls or is skewed, that will be the main focus.The Northern Ireland question may pose a real challenge to the politics of the Union.
This may be the government’s number one problem right now.The UK government is extremely constrained. The EU has invested a lot of its credibility in defending the single market. The perverse consequence of Brexit is that it embroiled the EU into the politics of Northern Ireland.Is the First Past the Post system propping up a moribund Labour Party?
The electoral system works to Labour’s favour when compared to continental centre-left parties.But the thing that Labour has to deal with that is unique is the Union question.Labour has always struggled to win a majority of seats in England.In 2020, Britain and the EU diverged on the question of China.
Biden wants to bring the EU toward the American position. And the EU has moved a bit already.This might dilute the advantage that Johnson thought he might gain with the Biden admin by being tough on China.The geopolitics of climate change are bound up in the EU/US position on China.
Merkel has been inclined to treat China as more serious about climate change.Johnson wants to put Britain at the head of ‘green finance.’Climate change is not currently an electorally contested issue in Britain. But that might not be true for much longer.Mentioned in this Episode:
Our Union series… on ScotlandDavid Frost’s FT column on the Northern Ireland ProtocolFurther Learning:
Helen on Labour and the ‘English Question’ for the New StatesmanMore on Johnson’s ‘green finance’ plansTalking climate change with Helen and Adam ToozeAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 10 Jun 2021 - 45min - 390 - Why Constitutions Matter
David talks to historian Linda Colley about her new global history of written constitutions: the paper documents that made and remade the modern world. From Corsica to Pitcairn, from Mexico to Japan, it's an amazing story of war and peace, violence, imagination and fear. Recorded as part of the Cambridge Literary Festival www.cambridgeliteraryfestival.com
Talking Points:
Swords need words: conquest generates a demand for writing and explanation.
In the mid-18th century, literacy began to increase in many societies and printing presses became more widely available. There’s not much incentive to circulate political texts if you can’t have a wider audience. The cult of the legislator fed into the idea that iconic political texts could be useful in new and divergent ways.By the mid-18th century, big transcontinental wars were becoming more common.
Hybrid-warfare is expensive. Navies are hideously expensive.Shifts in warfare fed into constitutions because constitutions function as a kind of contract.Constitutions can do a lot of things. They can be used to claim territory, for example.
They can extend rights, but they can also withdraw them. Once something is written down, it becomes harder to change. In addition to spreading democracy, constitutions codified exclusion and marginalization.Constitutions are sticky; even failed constitutions leave a legacy.
People get used to having a written agreement.The Tunisian Constitution of 1861 only lasted until 1864 but it remains important in Tunisian political memory.The U.S. constitution had a disproportionate impact, not just—or even primarily because of its content.
Because the U.S. press was so developed, hundreds of printed versions emerged very quickly and traveled across the world.When new powers started drafting constitutions, however, they looked at many constitutions, not just the American one. Most modern constitutions are a hodge-podge.Mentioned in this Episode:
Linda’s new book, The Gun, the Ship, and the Pen: Warfare, Constitutions, and the Making of the Modern WorldThe Meiji Constitution (Japan’s 1889 Constitution)The Second Sex, Simone de BeauvoirAlso by Linda: Britons: Forging the Nation 1707-1837Further Learning:
The Talking Politics Guide to … the UK ConstitutionLinda on ‘Why Britain needs a written constitution’ for the FTAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 03 Jun 2021 - 44min - 389 - England, Their England
We talk to the historians Robert Tombs and Robert Saunders about the history of England and the future of the Union. Is the size and complexity of England the real problem in holding the UK together? What can England's past teach us about the present state of British politics? Does England have a 'Northern Question' to go with its 'Scottish Question' and 'Irish Question'? This is the final episode in our series about the constituent parts of the UK. Find the others - on Scotland, NI, Wales - at https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/
Talking Points:
Is the island of Britain a natural seat of government?
England is not an island; and the English are not an island people.The Norman conquest attached England to the continent; leaving Scotland outside.As a maritime power, it was useful for England to move its borders to the sea. The strategic arguments for the existence of the UK are perhaps weaker in an era of more diffuse and global security threats and frameworks.Most people probably don’t know that the Union was a Scottish creation.
The lack of interest in developing ‘Britishness’ at the English center has had consequences. England is now more dominant in the Union than it used to be.Governance of the Union has changed: the leadership of both major parties in Westminster is now almost exclusively English and they compete for almost exclusively English votes.
There is a separate leadership class in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The electoral politics of asymmetrical devolution lead to intense secessionist pressure from Scotland.No government in Westminster can govern without English support, but it is possible to govern while being insensitive to Scottish or Welsh opinion.The dynamics of the Union incline toward Conservative power in Westminster and SNP power in Scotland. This is an unstable dynamic.The English don’t really have a story about before the Union in part because the English have never really seen the Acts of Union as dividing lines in English history.
Is the ‘Northern question’ a perennial question in English politics? Right now, this is the heart of the electoral conflict.In every part of England that isn’t London, you can find anti-London sentiment. There’s a lot of resentment toward the Union in England, but the Union is a pretty good deal for England.Mentioned in this Episode:
Talking … WalesTalking … Northern IrelandTalking… ScotlandThe English and their History, Robert TombsThe Making of English National Identity, Krishan KumarFurther Learning:
This Sovereign Isle, Robert TombsTim Shippey on Alfred the...Thu, 27 May 2021 - 44min - 388 - Niall Ferguson on Catastrophe
We talk to the historian Niall Ferguson about the politics of catastrophe, from pandemics and famines to world wars and climate change. Have we been worrying about the right things? Why have some countries done so much better than others with Covid? And what can history teach us about the worst that can happen? Plus, how likely is it that a cold war between the US and China turns hot?
Talking Points:
Niall argues that COVID is more like the Asian flu in ‘57/’58 than the 1918/1919 Spanish flu.
However the economic response is unprecedented; the Internet made lockdowns at this scale and duration possible.Lockdowns were a near panic response that were necessitated by initial political failures in the West.When we’re trying to assess the political impact of a disaster, the body count is not the most important thing.
A disaster can kill a lot of people and be virtually forgotten if it doesn’t have cascading consequences.We will probably remember the experience of lockdown more than the mortality rates.What did we get wrong about the COVID response?
Controlling travel early on made a difference, and most Western states did not do that.The network structure of a polity is the most important thing in a pandemic, especially in an era of globalized travel.The distinction between natural and manmade disasters is a false one.
The scale of impact is a function of how we, collectively and our leaders, individually make decisions.Humans do not seem to be very good at thinking pragmatically about risks; we tend to ignore them in practice while simultaneously constructing apocalyptic fantasies.Mentioned in this Episode:
Niall’s book, Doom: The Politics of CatastropheLarry Summers and David Cutler on the costs of COVIDGraham Allison, Destined for WarFurther Learning:
More on Taiwan’s COVID responseWhy do so many people live near active volcanoes? ‘The Really Big One’ (the earthquake that will devastate the Pacific Northwest) The Talking Politics Guide to… Existential RiskAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 20 May 2021 - 36min - 387 - Election Fallout
David and Helen are joined by the historian Colin Kidd to try to make sense of last week's elections in England, Scotland and Wales. What do they mean for the future of the UK? What do they mean for the future of the Labour Party? Are either (or both) in terminal trouble? Plus we explore how Nicola Sturgeon and Boris Johnson are going to resolve their standoff over a second Scottish independence referendum.
Talking Points:
Gordon Brown says that Scotland is a 30-30-40 nation.
Scotland is pretty evenly divided on the question of union, but the polls don’t measure the depth or shallowness of commitment.In effect, there are now two Scottish Labour parties: the actual Labour party and the social democratic SNP under Sturgeon.Alex Salmond’s party lost, but it put forward a more coherent vision for an independent Scotland.
Salmond and Sturgeon are now on opposite sides on both the EU question and the currency question. You can’t pursue EU membership without a currency that you could in principle put into the exchange rate mechanism.There’s a new alliance in Scottish politics between the SNP and the Greens.
The Scottish Greens are more associated with independence than the environment.The Green relationship makes oil a trickier issue. The SNP’s committed to more gradual decarbonisation.Where is the SNP’s greatest weakness?
Johnson’s approach to pump more money into Scotland is unlikely to work. Currency, the tax, and the border are interrelated challenges. The SNP is brilliant on politics and positioning, but it doesn’t devote enough time to political economy.A referendum could be politically risky for both Sturgeon and Johnson. This may mean a long period of shadow-boxing.How should Labour think about the basic challenge of reassembling a coalition?
The basic problem that Labour faces is that its old class coalition doesn’t fit together.The Union also causes Labour big problems.Is first past the post the only thing keeping Labour alive?Mentioned in this Episode:
Colin on the Anglo-Scottish UnionThe SNP’s referendumGordon Brown on Scotland and the UnionTony Blair in the New StatesmanFurther Learning:
More on the SNP’s manifestoColin in the LRB on Scottish independenceAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 13 May 2021 - 41min - 386 - Michael Lewis on the Pandemic
We talk to Michael Lewis about his new book The Premonition, which tells the story of the people who saw the pandemic coming and asks why they couldn't get a hearing. It's a tale of short-term failures and long-term trends in US government and it follows on from his previous book about the risks America has been running in hollowing out the administrative state. A sobering account with glimmers of hope for the future.
Talking Points:
Old timers at the CDC say that things began to change after the 1976 swine flu outbreak.
The CDC rushed a vaccine program, and some people got sick. Then the swine flu basically vanished.After that, under Reagan, the head of the CDC became an appointed, political job. This made the CDC overall more political and less independent. Most people who interacted with the CDC before this pandemic realized that it wasn’t very good at managing disease.Doing a public health job well carries a high risk of getting fired.
The experts in Michael’s story are consistently right about the trajectory of the disease; but they are often wrong about politics.Should experts pay more attention to politics? Experts can create discomfort for politicians, or they can give them cover—but that’s not their job. Michael thinks that politicians should be providing cover for the experts.Why was it so hard to learn from the experiences of other cities in the heart of the crisis?
In the 1918 pandemic, the difference between Philadelphia and St. Louis was the timing of the intervention. It’s hard to see the effect of the interventions in the fog of battle.The failure of testing in the US at the start of the pandemic meant that there was no way to identify where the virus was.Just-in-time manufacturing and taut-supply changes made the ‘health industrial complex’ less able to respond quickly.Will the pandemic make Americans care more about how the government actually functions?Mentioned in this Episode:
Michael’s new book, The Premonition, a Pandemic StoryRichard Neustadt and Harvey V. Fineberg, The Swine Flu AffairThe Nuclear Threat Initiative 2019 reportOur last episode with MichaelFurther Learning:
David J. Spencer, ‘Reflections on the 1976 Swine Flu Vaccination Program’Lawrence Wright, ‘The Plague Year,’ The New YorkerHow some cities ‘flattened the curve’ during the 1918 flu pandemicMore on the San Quentin COVID epidemicAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 06 May 2021 - 46min - 385 - After Merkel, What?
We talk to Hans Kundnani about the prospects for German politics in the run-up to September's federal elections, now that the cast list of possible successors to Merkel is known. Can Laschet escape from her shadow and does he want to? Would a Green led government be radically different from the alternatives? Is the age of the 'grand coalition' over? Plus we consider the historical parallels, from Bismarck to Adenauer to Kohl: do long-serving leaders ever manage a successful transition?
Talking Points:
To wrap up the second season of History of Ideas, on 11 May, the LRB is hosting a conversation between David and Pankaj Mishra. They’ll discuss the thinkers we did—and didn’t talk about. To book tickets, follow this link.
Armin Laschet is the new CDU leader.
So far, his candidacy has been underwhelming. He is generally seen as being a Merkelite candidate who would probably continue her centrist, grand-coalition style.Is the CDU pinning its hopes on the vaccine? If Germany gets it together in the next few months, the party in power will likely reap the benefits despite current polling woes.The personality of the lead candidate is less of a determining factor in German politics; you don’t vote for an individual chancellor.Is the era of grand coalition politics between the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats coming to an end?
There is a real possibility that the party that has run Germany for the last four electoral periods might not get a fifth.Of course it’s still likely that the Christian Democrats will stay in power, but even the possibility that they won’t contributes to a new sense of dynamism.The German Greens hope to be in power too—with the Christian Democrats.
There’s been a convergence during the Merkel Era.The Christian Democrats have moved to the center on social issues. It’s no longer clear that the Greens would prefer to be in coalition with the Social Democrats. They have moved to the right, especially on economic issues.Geopolitics may push the Greens more toward the Christan Democrats, especially re Russia.Mentioned in this Episode:
Hans’ book, The Paradox of German PowerOur last episode with HansThe letter written by French generalsFurther Learning:
5 things to know about Armin LaschetThe Astonishing Rise of Angela Merkel, from the New YorkerMore on the German GreensAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 29 Apr 2021 - 47min - 384 - Union at the Crossroads
David and Helen talk to Mike Kenny about what devolution has done to the politics of the UK as seen from Westminster and Whitehall. How have we ended up with a Unionism that is both complacent and aggressive? What lessons has the pandemic taught about the need for co-operation? And can the UK survive without a fundamental constitutional rethink? https://bit.ly/3xc7Kns
Thu, 22 Apr 2021 - 44min - 383 - Wales, England and the Future of the UK
As part of our series about the future of the Union, David and Helen talk to Dan Wincott of Cardiff Law School about the history of Welsh devolution and the possibility of Welsh independence. How has English dominance shaped Welsh attitudes to the Union? What did the Brexit vote reveal about the different strands of Welsh and British identity? Has the pandemic made the case for more devolution and even independence for Wales stronger? Plus, what happens to Wales if Scotland votes to leave the UK?
Talking Points:
The Anglo-Welsh union is a story of conquest and incorporation.
Wales was integrated into the English legal system under Henry VIII. There are strong cultural institutions in Wales, and the persistence of Welsh as the vernacular language limited the reach of English laws for a long time.It’s hard to understand the rise of the Labour Party at the beginning of the 20th century without seeing its relationship to questions about the Union.
Welsh Labour politicians played a critical role in tying the UK together during that period. Labour moved away from home rule after WWI, but as things got more complicated in the 1970s, Labour ended up struggling with devolution questions without an English majority. When Labour came back into power in 1997 it set up the first version of the devolution settlements.Labour’s weakness in England from 2010 is central to the current situation.For New Labour, Welsh devolution was an afterthought. They were more concerned with Scotland.The majority of Wales who voted in the referendum voted Leave.
Wales is probably the part of Britain where patterns of national identity are most complex.In Wales, those who prioritize British identity tended to vote Leave. But in England, those who prioritize British identity generally voted Remain.People are at least curious about what more devolution might look like in Wales.
Although there is still anti-devolution sentiment in Wales in a way there isn’t in Scotland.As long as the Labour Party can’t win a majority in Westminster, there is going to be curiosity about greater independence.Mentioned in this Episode:
From our Union series on… Scotland From our Union series on… Northern IrelandBenedict Anderson’s Imagined Communities‘Analysing vote choice in a multinational state: national identity and territorial differentiation in the 2016 Brexit vote’Further Learning:
More on COVID in Wales‘Crisis, what crisis? Conceptualizing crisis, UK pluri-constitutionalism and Brexit politics’More about Weslh independenceAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 15 Apr 2021 - 43min - 382 - Adam Curtis
This week David talks to the celebrated film-maker Adam Curtis about his new series Can't Get You Out of My Head, which tells the history of the rise and fall of individualism. Why do so many people feel so powerless in the age of the empowered individual? How has digital technology turbo-charged our feelings of alienation? And what has all this got to do with behavioural psychology? Plus much more: Nixon, China, Dominic Cummings, complex systems, Max Weber and conspiracy theories. https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/p093wp6h/cant-get-you-out-of-my-head
Talking Points:
In his newest series, Adam identifies the 1970s as the wellspring of a global system that feels irrational and beyond political control.
The Nixon shock—when the dollar became detached from the gold standard—was something that Nixon, at the time, saw as temporary.But as the Watergate scandal carried on, banks realized they could start trading currencies against each other. Out of this came the global financial system.The opening to China was seen as a great stroke of statesmanship.But what was happening at that time in China was the collapse of the certainty of Mao’s revolution. What emerged was a system run by Deng Xiaoping who essentially substituted money for ideology.Deng turned China into a giant production house of cheap goods. The generation that came out of WWII was terrified of big ideologies. What replaced ideology? Money.In an age of mass democracy, where individualism reigns, states become extremely difficult to govern.
By the late 70s/early 80s, politicians started to realize that you couldn’t assemble stable groups behind you. Instead of representing the people, they tried to become managers. Adam thinks that to call this neoliberalism is to oversimplify things.Under Thatcher and Reagan, industrial policy essentially failed. The politicians gave up before we realized they had given up.On the surface, behaviouralism seemed like a challenge to the notion of the rational, self-interested individual.
But actually, behaviouralists concluded that if people are irrational, we need to find ways to nudge them to behave in rational ways so that the system will work better.The Internet, as it is currently constructed, is like a modern ghost story. It’s always looking at patterns in the past.
The Internet as a feedback system can’t imagine something that hasn’t already happened. It’s a form of management that renders the world static and repeatable.Fake stability has led to a kind of blindness: think about the collapse of the Soviet Union, or the financial crisis, or Trump.
Again and again the people in charge fail to anticipate what’s coming.Has the ability of Big Data to predict been oversold?Mentioned in this Episode:
Adam’s newest series, Can’t Get You Out of my HeadMax Weber’s ‘iron cage’DId eBay just prove that paid search ads don’t work?Further Learning:
The Talking Politics Guide to... 1970s (with Helen)Thu, 08 Apr 2021 - 46min - 381 - How's Biden Doing
70 days into the first 100 days we take the temperature of the Biden presidency and ask how he's doing, and how he's doing so much. What made sleepy Joe such an active president? Is it him or the people around him? And how should the Republicans respond? Plus we discuss what it would take to restore America's standing in the world - does anyone want that anyway? With Helen Thompson and Gary Gerstle.
Talking Points:
The message of Biden’s early presidency is that he understands the challenge of the moment.
His first 70 days are more like FDR’s first 100 days than any recent president.This has also led to a more critical reassessment of the Obama years.Biden has put Harris in charge of the situation at the border; this is a strange move if he’s setting her up to be his successor.Biden essentially has a two year window to get things done—maybe less.
Biden is betting on his legislative achievements to get him through the midterms; he’s unveiling ambitious projects that will affect all Americans.The pandemic has enabled some of this, but the stimulus and the infrastructure bill also reflect the monetary and fiscal environment.The reigning paradigm of U.S. politics since Reagan has been deregulation. There’s now a sense that this paradigm has exhausted itself.
Perhaps the paradigm really shifted in 2016. Many of the things that Biden has done—for example, infrastructure—are things that Trump said he wanted to do. Biden is trying to occupy ground that Trump was unable to occupy. Most Americans will benefit from the stimulus, and the infrastructure bill will create millions of new jobs.Republicans are trying to focus on cultural issues. They are also gutting democratic institutions.What will happen when the pandemic ends? Will this create opportunities for a skillfully led opposition?
Joe Biden is not backed by clear legislative majorities. The border issue might become more politically salient when the pandemic ends.Is Pax Americana over?
There’s an increasing view both within and outside the United States that American leadership can’t be counted on.There were foreign policy continuities between Obama and Trump. Key differences were on Iran and climate.Biden has returned to the Paris Climate Accord and is trying to work with China on climate.Mentioned in this Episode:
Biden’s recent press conference Samuel Huntington, The Crisis of DemocracyFurther Learning:
More on Biden’s secret meeting with American historiansMore on Biden’s infrastructure planEvan Osnos talks about Joe Biden with Ezra KleinAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 01 Apr 2021 - 38min - 380 - Technopopulism
David and Helen talk to Chris Bickerton about how technocracy and populism have come together to create a new form of democratic politics. From New Labour to Macron's En Marche, from Dominic Cummings to Five Star, we discuss what these different forms of politics have in common and whether the pandemic has entrenched the hold of technopopulism or whether we are on the brink of something new.
Technopopulism: The New Logic of Democratic Politics
Thu, 25 Mar 2021 - 44min - 379 - The Tragic Choices of Climate Change
David talks to Helen Thompson and Adam Tooze about the choices facing the world in addressing climate change. Can we transition away from fossil fuels while maintaining our current ways of living? Will we act in time if we also insist on taking our time? Can the West uphold its values while getting its hands dirty with China? Plus we discuss whether American democracy is the worst system of all for doing what needs to be done.
Talking Points:
The transition away from fossil fuels to non-carbon energy sources is, for now, constrained by the laws of physics around energy use.
Converting one source of energy to another wastes a lot of energy.Do we make a bet on transcending the laws of physics via technological innovation when we have to deal with the timescales imposed by climate change?Or is this way of framing things too negative?
The story of modernity is about making technological bets against existing ways of life.Is a bet with a ticking clock different?How do we actually get to carbon neutrality by 2050?
Republicans in the US who take climate change seriously are betting on breakthroughs in carbon capture that will allow people to continue burning fossil fuels.The target itself is artificial. We are picking out of probabilistic outcomes of more or less dire futures.There are different timescales at play here.
There’s the inexorable progression of the problem itself; there’s political time, which is choppier but has rhythms to it; and there’s innovation time, which is not smooth at all.There is no collective climate solution that doesn’t involve China.
China is moving on the climate issue regardless of the West.China can do so in part because its market is so big, but also because its market is so new.The drama of the political economy of climate change right now is largely Asian. The Biden administration does not have a coherent climate change policy. The American debate seems frozen in the 1990s. In the background of the American debate about climate is geopolitics.Mentioned in this Episode:
Helen’s article on the geopolitical fight to come over green energyThe Guardianon Princeton’s decarbonization by 2050 modelFurther Learning:
More on the inversion of the Gulf StreamAdam Tooze talks to Gideon Rachman about the climate crisisAdam on the pandemic and the world economyAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 18 Mar 2021 - 44min - 378 - Sunakonomics
This week we discuss the government's post-Budget economic strategy and the new dividing lines in British politics. Have the Tories stolen Labour's clothes? Is there a new consensus emerging on tax and pend? What can Keir Starmer do to carve out a distinctive economic position? Plus we consider whether a new Labour leader in Scotland can kickstart a revival of the party's fortunes there. With Helen Thompson and Chris Brooke.
Talking Points:
Rishi Sunak’s plan in the short-term is to concentrate on economic recovery and to end pandemic support in a reasonably—but not entirely—gradualist fashion.
In the medium-term, he’s saying there has to be an emphasis on paying for the pandemic and bringing the level of debt as proportion of GDP back down.Sunak wants the Conservatives to go into the next election as the party that claims to be serious about the economy, ie, cautious about debt.Both of the parties seem to be hoping that the past will come back—but it probably won’t.Starmer put a heavy bet on the competence case against Johnson.
That worked well for much of 2020. The bet was that Brexit would make things chaotic. But the pandemic has gone on longer than people expected, and the vaccine rollout is going well. The furlough scheme has also been continued.In two-party politics, the two parties often tend to converge. Is this happening in the UK?
Both parties have an interest in constructing the convergence as an illusion; but is it?Brexit has produced some convergence because Labour isn’t trying to rejoin Europe.Financial and monetary market conditions make it possible to sustain huge levels of debt. Most of the Western world have responded to China’s industrial strategy by calling for an industrial strategy.The Tories are now putting a big emphasis on green energy; this also brings them closer to Labour.The politics for each party are different.
Labour needs to persuade people it has a plausible growth strategy because that is what they need to flourish. The big risk for the conservatives is unemployment.Labour needs to expand its electoral coalition; this won’t be easy, but the return of mass unemployment might provide one way of doing this.Further Learning:
More on Rishi Sunak’s budgetJohnson’s green energy plansWhy public debt is not like credit card debtOn Starmer’s response to the budgetWho is Anas Sarwar?And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 11 Mar 2021 - 42min - 377 - Northern Ireland: Past, Present, Future
In the latest in our series on the fate of the Union, we talk to historians Richard Bourke and Niamh Gallagher about the history of Northern Ireland's relationship to the rest of the UK. From the Anglo-Irish Union to partition to the Troubles to the Peace Process to Brexit and beyond, we discuss what makes Northern Irish politics so contentious and whether consensus is possible. Plus we ask if Irish re-unification is coming and what it might look like.
Talking Points:
The Anglo-Irish union was a response to the 1798 rebellion. It was a means of pacification through incorporation.
The union in Ireland came before Catholic Emancipation, which took place in 1829. By then, a political movement based on disaffection had already commenced.In material terms, the union added 5 million new subjects (England at that time had a population of roughly 8 million). It also added a new dimension of grievances.The home rule movement was seeking a devolved administration, but failure to deliver that made the Irish Catholic movement more committed to independence.
Meanwhile, Northern opinion became more alarmed about being subject to Southern jurisdiction.The Government of Ireland Act in 1920 formalized partition.Many politicians at the time hoped to see reunification within the context of the British Empire, but that did not come about.In Northern Ireland, proportional representation was abolished in local elections in 1923, and in general elections in 1929. In practice, Northern Ireland became a single party state with a large, disempowered minority.
Political activism in the 1960s was also influenced by the civil rights movement in the US and the increase in the Catholic student body in universities.At some point during the 20th century, the dynamics of Northern Ireland became seen as a problem that didn’t apply to the rest of Britain.
The 1998 solution was creative: the talks were taken out of the UK context and put into a wider context with the United States and the EU.The Good Friday left the categories of nationalists vs. unionists intact.Today, Unionism in the North has become a new phenomenon focused on its own domestic welfare and constituency.
The worst nightmare of Unionism is coming true: when the Troubles started, 33% of the population was Catholic. This summer, there will probably no longer be a culturally Protestant majority.Brexit has revived talk of unification. But reunification could take many different forms.Mentioned in this Episode:
Niamh’s book, Ireland and the Great War: A Social and Political HistoryRichard’s book, Peace in Ireland: The War of IdeasThe Good Friday AgreementFurther Learning:
David McKittrick and David McVea, Making Sense of the TroublesAlvin Jackson, The Two UnionsMarking the centenary of Northern IrelandAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be...
Thu, 04 Mar 2021 - 48min - 376 - What Does Jeremy Think?
This week we talk to Suzanne Heywood about her memoirof her late husband, Cabinet Secretary Jeremy Heywood - the man who helped to run Britain for more than two decades, working with four different prime ministers. From Black Wednesday to Brexit, from the Blair/Brown battles to the surprising successes of the Coalition, Jeremy Heywood had a unique position at the heart of British politics. We discuss what he did, what he learned and what he wished had turned out differently.
Talking Points:
The book starts with the ERM crisis.
This was the start of a story that arguably runs through Brexit.Jeremy told David Cameron that he would need to address immigration with Europe, but he knew that this would be difficult.Blair had a huge parliamentary majority; this meant he could do many of the things that Jeremy wanted to see done.
Jeremy was positive about how much had been achieved, particularly in public services.Progress was more difficult under Brown. The financial crisis created enormous strain.Jeremy and Gordon Brown worked very closely together on the financial crisis.During political transitions, all the ‘in-flight’ initiatives pause. Any one of them may or may not land as you previously expected.
As a civil servant, you also have to be able to switch your personal loyalties.The change in style between governments can be significant. New administrations come in with a new language, a new tone.Civil servants have to keep the show on the road, and also adapt.At what point do civil servants have to swallow their personal objections and get on with things?
Ministers represent the electorate; civil servants support ministers in delivering on their promises.Civil servants can push and make certain arguments, but once a decision is made, they have to move forward with implementation.Jeremy’s real genius was in relationships.
He inspired people; they wanted to do their best for him.Mentioned in this Episode:
What Does Jeremy Think? Suzanne HeywoodFurther Learning:
The Talking Politics Guide to … Being a Civil Servant‘Remembering Jeremy Heywood,’ in The GuardianBronwen Maddox reviews Suzanne’s book for the FTFrom our archives… The Next Referendum?And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 25 Feb 2021 - 44min - 375 - Is Boris Back?
David and Helen talk to Nick Timothy, former chief of staff in Downing Street under Theresa May, about the future for Boris Johnson's government. Is he now safe from leadership challenges? Can he hold together the coalition that won the 2019 election? Is Keir Starmer the one under pressure? Plus we discuss where the next big destabilising threat to this government might come from: Scotland, Northern Ireland, the EU, China?
Talking Points:
Is Johnson’s political position more secure now?
If the government can end on a high note with the vaccine rollout, that might be what people remember.Boris probably doesn’t want to be an austerity prime minister.
Sunak wants to get the economy moving and send some signals to the market that there’s fiscal responsibility.Sunak may also want to create a fiscal dividing line with Labour.But without financial market pressure, it’s hard to see how Sunak is going to win this argument about fiscal probity.Political reality, and new voters, may push the Tories toward more spending against the instincts of many MPs.Starmer still faces serious structural problems: Labour is in trouble in Scotland and the increasing importance of cultural issues create problems for Labour in the Red Wall.
Although the government has made mistakes with the pandemic, public opinion has been fairly understanding.Starmer hasn’t really been able to talk about anything other than the pandemic.Who is in the biggest trouble in Scotland?
Johnson faces big issues around the union, but in terms of electoral outcomes, it’s probably Starmer.What would happen if a government without an English majority has to act as an English government again due to a crisis? Johnson is particularly unpopular in Scotland.The Tories are worried about the union, but there aren’t obvious solutions.
Northern Ireland is at the center of these problems.Mentioned in this Episode:
Tom McTague in the Atlantic, ‘Britain’s pandemic story can still be rewritten’Nick Timothy in The TelegraphFurther Learning:
Are MPs out of sync with their voters? What is the Union? On Johnson’s unpopularity in ScotlandMore on the Northern Irish ProtocolAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 18 Feb 2021 - 40min - 374 - Rating the Government on Covid
David talks to Bronwen Maddox, Director of the Institute for Government, about how well the Johnson government has performed over the past year of the pandemic. There have been some successes - the furlough scheme, vaccines - and plenty of failures - education policy, health outcomes. But which were the key choices? Who can claim the credit? And where does the blame really lie? Plus we discuss how much personality still matters in political decision-making.
Talking Points:
What has the government done well over the last year?
It got financial support to a lot of people, surprisingly quickly.Building this infrastructure was inadvertent—it was for Universal Credit.Vaccines have been heralded as a success story; can the government really claim credit?
It has been funneling money to some of the groups that were successful.The government did a good job in buying vaccines and choosing where to invest.In the rollout, you get something analogous to test and trace. Much of this is being done through the NHS, which makes it easier.What went the most wrong?
There were at least 20,000 care home deaths in the first few months. And just about half of the deaths have happened since mid-November. These both look avoidable.The education mistakes were disastrous.A case often made against this government is that one of their key problems is timing.
Johnson’s instinct to delay a decision in the middle of uncertainty might in other circumstances be more positive, but so many times the delay has been damaging.The government says it’s been following the science, but science is often uncertain too.
It’s hard for politicians to communicate uncertainty.Still, people in the UK still trust scientists despite the government’s communications failures.With coronavirus, Starmer opted for a politics of competence.
If your opponents start doing something competently (ie the vaccine rollout), then what do you do?The politics of competence doesn’t get people fired up in the streets.People often take competence for granted. They want something on top of that.Mentioned in this Episode:
What Does Jeremy Think? By Suzanne HeywoodFurther Learning:
Bronwen’s recent report, ‘Coronavirus: no going back to normal’Covid chaos: How the UK handled the coronavirus crisis, from the Guardian‘How the UK boosted its vaccine manufacturing capacity,’ from the FTThe latest on the vaccine rolloutAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 11 Feb 2021 - 33min - 373 - The Coup in Burma
In this extra episode David catches up with Thant Myint-U to discuss the latest developments in Burma (Myanmar), following the overthrow of Aung San Suu Kyi's government. What prompted the generals to act? What do the protestors want? And what does it mean for the future of Burmese democracy? Thant Myint-U is the author of The Hidden History of Burma.
Further Reading
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v41/n22/thant-myint-u/not-a-single-year-s-peace
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Myanmar-should-use-COVID-crisis-to-end-30-years-of-crony-capitalism
https://www.frontiermyanmar.net/en/myanmar-needs-to-reimagine-its-economic-future/
Tue, 09 Feb 2021 - 27min - 372 - What is the Union?
For this first in our series looking at the future of the UK, we talk to the historian Colin Kidd about the origins of the Union and the ideas that underpin it. Is the island of Britain a natural territorial political unit? Is nationalism compatible with Unionism? What changed in the 1970s? Plus we discuss how the shifting character of the SNP has shaped the arguments for and against the Union.
Talking Points:
Historically, the Kings of England considered themselves rulers of the whole island.
But any large community must be imagined. It’s inherently artificial.Those who have tried to impose unified rule over the island by force have historically struggled.England has served as a quasi-imperial power on the island.The union in 1707 was a product of contingency, part of a succession crisis.
At the time, the real drama was Jacobitism, not the English versus the Scots.What united Britain in the 18th century is not so much positive factors, but an ongoing series of wars.The height of British consciousness came during the two world wars.
What happened in the 60s and 70s that made the union look less attractive?The 70s with the election of Thatcher are the crucial decade. Asymmetrical devolution has been destabilizing for the union.Secularization led to Scots moving away from private identities being linked to denominational allegiances to a broader, more secular national identity.
The SNP in the 1930s had little traction; the communists were more influential.It’s only in the 1960s that the SNP made a breakthrough.For at least a time, there was a sense of coexistence between patriotism and Britishness.
The BBC from the 1920s to 1970s helped cement an authentic sense of British nationhood.Labour played an important part of this story; British patriotism was tied to collective war experiences, the welfare state. When those things came under pressure in the 1970s, finding an outlet for union patriotism became more difficult.The SNP is a curious hybrid: it includes hard-core nationalists, but also social democrats, like Sturgeon, who think the best way to preserve the welfare state in Scotland is by going it alone.
The unionist/nationalist binary might not be helpful; arguably the most important binary is within the SNP itself.Mentioned in this Episode:
Colin’s book, Union and UnionismsBenedict Anderson, Imagined CommunitiesLinda Colley, BritonsThe Guardian on the Labour Party’s new strategyFurther Learning:
Sturgeon vs Salmond (from the New Statesman) From Brexit to Scottish IndependenceAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:
Thu, 04 Feb 2021 - 48min - 371 - History of Ideas S2 E1 : Rousseau on Inequality
This is episode 1 of the new HISTORY OF IDEAS series from Talking Politics. To hear the remaining 11 episodes, please subscribeto History of Ideas!
Jean-Jacques Rousseau’s Discourse on Inequality (also known as the Second Discourse) tells the story of all human history to answer one simple question: how did we end up in such an unequal world? David explores the steps Rousseau traces in the fall of humankind and asks whether this is a radical alternative to the vision offered by Hobbes or just a variant on it. Is Rousseau really such a nice philosopher?
Recommended version to purchase
Going deeper…
Leo Damrosch, Jean Jacques Rousseau: Restless Genius (2005)David Edmonds and John Eidinow, Rousseau’s Dog (2007)Pankaj Mishra, ‘How Rousseau predicted Trump’, The New Yorker (2016)(Audio) In Our Time, The Social ContractTue, 02 Feb 2021 - 47min - 370 - Germany, Italy, Coalitions and Vaccines
We look at two countries where things may be changing: Germany, as it starts to imagine life beyond Merkel, and Italy, after the resignation of the prime minister. Would Armin Laschet as Chancellor mean business as usual? Can Conte cobble together a new government? Where are the biggest challenges to the established order coming from? Plus we talk about the new politics of vaccine nationalism. With Helen Thompson, Hans Kundnani and Lucia Rubinelli.
Talking Points:
In some ways Germany is in a state of continuity, rather than flux.
Armin Laschet is a continuity candidate. Though it’s not clear that he will be the candidate for chancellor in the September election.Were Laschet to become chancellor, you would probably have a Black-Green coalition. Has the pandemic made coalition formation less difficult? If so, it would be because the Christian Democrats are in a stronger position than they were.The German Greens may be different from other Green parties.
When the Greens emerged in the late 70s/early 80s, it wasn’t clearly a left-wing party.The Greens have become more centrist on economic issues, and the Christian Democrats have moved left on environmental questions.As environmental politics becomes bigger, is there a constituency that will oppose this?Anti-Americanism in Germany is now quite high.
Ultimately, the Germany-US relation is more driven by structural factors; Germans don’t believe that they need the United States in the way they did during the Cold War.How committed is Germany to other European states that do feel threatened by Russia?Conte resigned yesterday; he has 72 hours to try to come back.
Conte resigned because Renzi decided to recall two of his ministers plus an undersecretary.Renzi said he no longer shares the method that the government is using, and he accused Conte of undermining democratic institutions through emergency legislation.Renzi accused Conte of not having a long-term plan for economic development and criticized his statist plans for the recovery fund.He also wants the government to accept the European Stability Mechanism for healthcare.These are a lot of demands for someone polling at close to nothing. The other two coalition partners don’t want anything to do with Renzi anymore. The question is whether they will stick to it and find a different majority, which seems difficult, or, whether they decide to bring Renzi back into government and get rid of Conte.The only disciplining effect here seems to be a fear of elections—and Salvini.Conte was initially meant to be a placeholder prime minister.
That changed with the second Conte government (from Summer 2019). The new coalition gave him more power. This grew with the pandemic.The conflict over how Italy spends its money is coming back in full force.Further Learning:
More on Laschet and the struggle to unite the partyHans’ essay on the costs of convergence More from Hans on Germany’s democratic dysfunctionality More on Conte’s decision to quitThu, 28 Jan 2021 - 45min - 369 - Biden Begins
David, Helen and Gary reflect on what lies ahead for American politics and for the Biden administration. Does Trump pose more of a threat from inside or outside the Republican party? Is immigration about to become the central partisan dividing line once again? How much good can calls for unity do in such a fractured country? Plus, we look at Trump's list of entrants for his garden of national heroes. From Emily Dickinson to Hannah Arendt to Woody Guthrie - but no Bruce Springsteen. What's going on?
Talking Points:
Many in the Republican Party, including McConnell, have never liked Trump—are they now breaking with him?
Attempts to establish new parties can shake up American politics, but they rarely succeed.The Trump candidacy was a disaster for the Republican establishment from the beginning. McConnell is willing to consider impeachment because Trump still represents a threat to the mainstream Republican Party.Success in American party politics requires party organization in all 50 states.
This is not the kind of work that generally appeals to Trump.He will probably want to influence the political process from the outside, to make the existing system ungovernable.The Biden administration wants to be much more ambitious on immigration.
Previous attempts at immigration reform have failed.Biden has an opportunity to demonstrate government competence by focusing on vaccinations.Biden has made clear that climate is a priority.
This is politically useful for holding together the Democratic party.Biden has already pledged to cancel the Keystone Pipeline; at least on some issues he’s willing to take on the oil and gas industry.This quickly gets into foreign policy issues, especially re China.Biden’s initial window is really two years, not four.
Democrats should not be counting on a majority in the 2022 elections.They need to demonstrate the competence of the federal government. Though it may be difficult for any government to appear competent these days.Mentioned in this Episode:
‘The Garden of American Heroes’ On Fred Trump and Woody GuthrieThe text of Joe Biden’s inaugural addressFurther Learning:
More on Biden’s immigration planGreen New Deal? Talking Politics American Histories… Monopoly and MuckrakingAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Wed, 20 Jan 2021 - 55min - 368 - The Long-term Legacy of Brexit
David and Helen are joined by Diane Coyle and Anand Menon to have another go at pinning down the long term consequences of Brexit. Now we have a deal, what are the prospects for rebalancing the UK economy? Do EU politicians want a post-Brexit UK to succeed or to fail? Can Labour really avoid re-opening the Brexit wars for the next four years? Plus, an update on the next series of History of Ideas.
Talking Points:
Because of Brexit there is more friction in trade with the EU.
People will feel the friction more and more as we get back to normal volumes of trade.Right now the volume is relatively low both because of Covid and because of seasonal fluctuations (things slow down after the holidays).It will be hard to disentangle Brexit effects from Covid effects.We will be talking about Brexit for a long time.
Future governments will be able to score easy economic wins by aligning more closely with the EU, although this may involve political trade offs. This may not be true when it comes to financial services. This trade agreement means that choices have to be made over and over again.The British economy is taking two shocks: separating from the EU but also separating from what Osborne and Cameron called a golden era of UK-China economic relations.
EU policy and British policy on China are diverging.The Uk government may focus more on India and other non-Chinese Pacific economies.Brexit does create some opportunities.
The UK is a world leader in AI, and there is a commitment to investing in energy technology, especially green energy.The UK is also a world leader in higher education and the creative sector; the problem is that the government has declared a sort of culture war.A German-led EU tends to treat geopolitical questions as primarily economic questions rather than long-term security questions.
China is going to put that commitment, formalized in the China Investment pact, to the test.Britain is now the liberal European state when it comes to foreign policy.The institutions that have been so successful at managing intra-European imbalances now prevent the EU from being an effective actor in international relations.Mentioned in this Episode:
Johnson’s piece for The Financial Times on green energyAnand on the HuffPo podcast with Rosie DuffieldThe UK in a Changing Europe‘Who Killed Soft Brexit?’ Jill Rutter and Anand for ProspectFurther Learning:
EU and China agree new investment treaty (from the FT)More on Germany and EU politics on ChinaAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 14 Jan 2021 - 50min - 367 - Jill Lepore on the Insurrection
David talks to historian Jill Lepore about what took place at the Capitol on January 6th. What should we call it? What can we compare it to? And what should happen next? Plus we ask how Biden ought to address what happened in his inaugural next week. Are we past the time for talk about reconciliation?
Talking Points:
Is there a word for what happened in the US on 6 Jan?
Many Republicans are still defending the insurrection. The likes of Limbaugh and Gingrich are calling it a ‘march.’The American Right always wants to resurrect the American Revolution and the Left wants to resurrect the Civil War.To call it an ‘insurrection’ is to evoke the language used to bar former Confederates from holding federal office.A problem with Trump’s entire presidency has been that reporters and commentators have sought precedents in American history, but Jill thinks nothing in American history has been like this.
Should we be looking to other countries, other failed democracies, for lessons? How do we balance the uniqueness of Trumpism with the familiarity of the things it draws upon?Unlike right-movements in countries like Hungary and Turkey, the Trump project did not successfully co-opt the institutions of the state.
American democracy is older than some of these other examples.The Conservative movement over the last few decades has managed to capture many institutions, namely the courts—although this is not necessarily Trumpism.When Trump is out of office will it be easier for him to become a ‘martyr?’
Conviction in an impeachment proceeding could be good for mainstream Republicans. It may also make a split in the party more likely.Mentioned in this Episode:
Jill in The New Yorker, ‘What Should We Call the Sixth of January’Jill on inaugural addresses for The New YorkerThe Article of Impeachment against TrumpJill in The Washington Post on letting history judge TrumpFrom our archives… Jill on the American NationAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Mon, 11 Jan 2021 - 27min - 366 - New Year, New World?
David and Helen look at what's changed - and what hasn't - since we last spoke, from Brexit to Biden to Covid. Has the Brexit deal really given the UK a chance to do things differently? Do Democrat wins in the Georgia Senate races open up new possibilities for Biden? What is at stake in the politics of vaccination? Plus, we talk about where things now stand for the future of the Union.
*Recorded before the events in Washington on Wednesday *
Talking Points:
What can the UK do that it couldn’t do before Brexit?
From the start, the two biggest issues for Cameron were freedom of movement and financial services regulation.For the City, Brexit is a tradeoff. Although financial services will not be regulated in the EU, the American investment banks in London are unhappy about being shut out of equivalence for trading.Johnson is talking about innovation and dynamism. He doesn’t seem willing to say it’s about migration and the City of London.Northern Ireland and Scotland will both be key questions that we will talk about in greater depth this year.
There will be a growing sense of Northern Ireland’s separateness. The deal creates opportunities and risks for the government in Dublin.A trade deal changes what Scottish independence would mean.Meanwhile, in the USA… the Democrats now have control of the Senate.
This election could indicate the potential of a remarkable new coalition for the Democratic party.Or it could indicate a future where everything is contested.What can Biden get done before the next midterms? During the Obama years, the Republicans were extremely effective at voting as an oppositional bloc. Holding the Democratic senators together won’t be easy and Biden will not be able to blame oppositional Republicans for any failure to get things done.However a key benefit for the Democrats is that they will be able to confirm nominees.Mentioned in this Episode:
Matthew Parris in the TimesDavid’s winter talk: Did Covid kill the climate?Further Learning:
From December… From Brexit to Scottish IndependenceMore on the partition of IrelandMore on the Georgia election resultsMore on the European vaccine rolloutFrom November… Post-Covid Economics with Adam ToozeAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 07 Jan 2021 - 52min - 365 - How to Fix British Democracy?
Another recent talk by David on democracy: does it make sense to talk about fixing British democracy, and if so, how? David discusses electoral reform, institutional change and he returns to the question of votes for children.
Sun, 03 Jan 2021 - 28min - 364 - Did Covid Kill the Climate?
A recording of a recent talk by David on what we've learned in 2020 about the resilience of democratic societies in the face of disaster. Has the experience of Covid shown us how we can deal with climate change, or has it shown us what we are missing? An argument about optimism, pessimism and everything in between.
Thu, 31 Dec 2020 - 40min - 363 - Looking Back, Looking Forward
This week David, Helen and our producer Catherine Carr look back at five years of podcasting and five years of crazy politics, to pick our favourite moments and to discuss what we've learned. From the 2015 general election to the current crisis, via the Corn Laws and Crashed, the politics of abortion and super forecasting, Corbyn and nuclear weapons. Plus, we'll let you know about some of our plans for 2021.
Episodes Mentioned in this Episode:
Crashed with Adam ToozeAdam Tooze on post-COVID economicsThe Corn Laws with Boyd HiltonAnother Shock! (From 2017) with Finbarr LiveseyThe Talking Politics Guide… to Nuclear Weapons with Aaron RapportSuperforecasting with David SpiegelhalterAmerican Histories: The Great Abortion Switcheroo with Sarah ChurchwellCatherine’s new podcast, Relatively.And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 24 Dec 2020 - 46min - 362 - Where is the Opposition?
We look past Covid and Brexit to ask where the long-term opposition to Johnson's government is going to come from. Can Corbynism remain a force in British politics, even without Corbyn? Is there room for a challenge to the Conservatives from the right? Will climate politics drive street protest politics or can it help the Greens? Plus we consider whether Nicola Sturgeon is really the leader of the opposition. With Helen Thompson and Chris Brooke.
Talking Points:
Corbynist energy levels are low these days.
There is a strong Corbynist presence on Twitter and in certain media institutions, but it’s not clear that it extends far beyond those bubbles.Much of the radical left politics in the near future will be defensive.When Starmer ran for leader, he essentially offered Corbynism without Corbyn.
The manifestos of 2017 and 2019 were popular inside the Labour Party and reasonably popular with the public. Corbyn did move the party out of New Labour’s shadow. Starmer has inherited a party that is firmly outside the New Labour mainstream.Although some Corbynists fear a return to New Labour-esque politics, Labour now seems to be a social democratic party in the European mold.Will the Green Party benefit from these developments?
Helen thinks that we are more likely to see increased green activism than a resurgence in Green Party politics.Many on the left are disenchanted with parliamentary politics.And over the last couple of years, the major parties have shifted on climate.If Johnson is really committed to greener politics, does that open space on the right?
Farage is positioning himself in this gap.This could intersect with a rebellion against lockdown.What should Starmer do about Scotland?
Could Starmer make a case that the democratic voice of the people of Scotland must be heard, and then make a social democratic case for the Union?A more federal union is going to require stronger institutions in England, which is probably to Labour’s disadvantage. Time for the SNP to weaken is probably the best way forward for both unionist parties.Mentioned in this Episode:
This Land by Owen JonesFurther Learning:
James Butler on the Corbyn project for the LRBMore on Macron, the constitution, and climate politicsFrom our archives… Labour’s Fault LinesA profile of Andy Burnham from The GuardianAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 17 Dec 2020 - 44min - 361 - What's Next for France and Italy?
As we wait for a Brexit deal or no deal, we discuss what the next year might hold for French and Italian politics. What are Macron's prospects as he heads towards the next presidential election? Has Giorgia Meloni replaced Matteo Salvini as the leader of the Italian far right? And what chance of a return to political normalcy in either country? With Lucia Rubinelli and Chris Bickerton.
Talking Points:
The Italian public is fed up with Brexit—there isn’t much public debate about it.
Salvini is still playing with the idea that leaving the EU is a good idea, but not as seriously now. All the signals from the government suggest that Italy is lining up with Macron, but they aren’t trying to play a central role.There are particular issues that affect different member states. The broader European unity is now being tested on certain key issues.
The Irish are particularly affected by no deal.For France, the most important issue is probably the level playing field. Fishing also has a powerful symbolic element to it.It may come down to member states being willing to make compromises with each other, or not.Italy was the first Western country to be hit by the virus and the first to lockdown. The response created a sense of pride.
During summer, however, life went back to normal. It was basically a free-for-all.When cases began to climb again, the mood turned to frustration: frustration at the relationship between governments and regions, and frustration with certain policies, such as the closure of high schools.There is also the sense that Italy is lagging behind on the vaccine.Macron also went in earlier on lockdown, and came out of lockdown earlier too.
The idea that Macron has authoritarian tendencies has become part of the debate over COVID. There has been an almost permanent sense of emergency stretching from the yellow vest period to today.COVID has blurred into a border debate about the balance between security and civil liberties in France.Mentioned in this Episode:
Our last episode with LuciaFurther Learning:
More on Johnson’s dinner with von der Leyen Why is fishing important in the Brexit trade talks?More on Article 24 in FranceA profile of Giorgia Meloni from Politico EuropeMore on France’s Green PartyAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 10 Dec 2020 - 39min - 360 - From Brexit to Scottish Independence
We try to join the dots from the final days of the Brexit negotiations to the looming prospect of another referendum on Scottish independence. Can the government really risk a no-deal outcome? Will the SNP still hold a referendum if the courts say no? What will Labour do? Plus we ask how COVID politics intersects with the fate of the Union. With Helen Thompson, Anand Menon and Kenneth Armstrong.
Talking Points:
Will there be a Brexit deal?
We know the concessions both sides would have to make. What we don’t know whether either side is willing to make the concessions.The negotiation that matters is perhaps the one going on in the prime minister’s head.Debates over lockdown have reopened the space to the Conservative Party’s right.The Eurozone faces its own problem: trying to rescue the EU Recovery Fund from the impasse over the rule of law issue in relation to Hungary and Poland.The Union is in a more precarious position than it was before.
The SNP is doing surprisingly well. That gives Sturgeon some comfort in thinking that she can seek a mandate for another referendum if she wins a majority.How will they go about the referendum? Some people are floating the possibility of the Scottish parliament legislating for another referendum without the Section 30 order that would get consent from the UK.For people like Michael Gove, Scotland is a key reason to get a Brexit deal.There is undeniably support for independence in opinion polls, but can the SNP offer a coherent independence project?
Helen thinks that they still haven’t resolved the currency question. There’s also the border issue.Can the SNP accept an independent Scotland outside of the European Union? Membership has been a key part of the independence offer. Will timing favor the SNP or Westminster?Brexit and Scotland are problems for Keir Starmer too.
How will Starmer whip his MP’s to vote if a Brexit deal comes back? Labour without seats from Scotland will find it hard to win another election.Ultimately, the major economic event of this parliament is going to be Brexit, not COVID, or at least it will be close, so Labour needs to come up with some kind of narrative.Labour’s strength in Scotland bound the Union together. It hasn’t come back since 2011. This makes it hard for any party other than the Conservatives to be dominant in Westminster, particularly under conditions of asymmetrical devolution.Mentioned in this Episode:
The UK in a Changing EuropeAlex Massie on the SNPFurther Learning:
From the archives… Can Boris Survive Brexit? More on Starmer and the Brexit dealAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 03 Dec 2020 - 43min - 359 - Young People vs Joe Biden
This week we talk about race and representation with Cathy Cohen of the GenForward Survey project based in Chicago. What do young Americans want from democratic politics? How do their priorities vary according to race and ethnicity? And can a Biden presidency deliver on the desire for real change? Plus we catch up with Jeevun Sandher and Michael Bankole of the Politics Jam podcast to explore a UK perspective on why young and minority voices find it so hard to be heard.
Talking Points:
We are seeing more racial and ethnic diversity in generations than ever before.
Young people break for Biden, but for young white men, it was about 50-50.In 2012, a plurality of young whites voted for Romney. If we look only at generation we miss part of the story.The story about ‘young people’ is being driven by young people of colour.Does Biden have a problem with young people?
Many young people voted against Trump rather than for Biden.They decided to vote against Trump and organize against Biden.What is the best method for achieving racial progress in the US? Young African Americans are pointing to the need for structural change.Young people are rejecting the idea that change comes from national-level voting. They are redefining what democratic practice might be.Young people broadly favor a more expansive state.
The Biden agenda is more about tweaking at the edges.There is going to be a real tension. Will there be the infrastructure to mobilize young people? Can they pressure the administration?This generation is highly educated, but they are also precarious. There is an increasing mismatch between the promise of higher education and what it delivers.The younger generation is highly indebted because of higher education.In both the UK and the US, young people haven’t been represented well by the political system.
There are specific issues that young people want to see addressed, including systemic racism.Ethnic differences among young people need to be taken into account in the UK too.The political class in the House of Commons is unrepresentative in many ways. It skews old and it skews white.Conservatives tend to represent white seats. The First-Past-the-Post system doesn’t incentivize serious engagement with ethnically diverse constituencies.Mentioned in this episode:
The GenForward SurveyThe Black Youth ProjectPolitics JaMJeevun’s academic profileMichael’s academic profileAnne Phillips, The Politics of PresenceThomas Saalfeld on substantive representationAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 26 Nov 2020 - 52min - 358 - James O'Brien
David talks to author and radio host James O'Brien about everything from therapy to Brexit and from educational privilege to Keir Starmer's leadership of the Labour Party. Recorded as part of the Cambridge Literary Festival https://cambridgeliteraryfestival.com/. James's new book is How Not to be Wrong: The Art of Changing Your Mind.
Sun, 22 Nov 2020 - 59min - 357 - Post-Covid Economics
This week a special edition from the Bristol Festival of Economics with Helen Thompson and Adam Tooze talking about what might follow the pandemic. From vaccines to changing patterns of employment, from action on climate to new tensions with China, we explore what the long-term effects of 2020 might be. Plus we discuss what options are open to a Biden administration: with the Georgia run-offs to come and the disease still spreading, how much wriggle room has he got?
Talking Points:
Headlines about the COVID vaccines focus on effectiveness, but it’s also about supply chains, storage, and scale.
Things are moving so quickly right now in part because so many people, especially in the US, are getting sick.After the initial financial meltdown in March, in aggregate terms there was a share market recovery—one which was at odds with what was going on with people’s lives.
Surging American unemployment numbers went alongside the S&P 500’s continued rise.The biggest beneficiaries initially were big tech. Now big pharma seems to be gaining. Is there a structural conflict in the allocation of capital between big tech and big pharma? Big tech probably won’t be facing much of a challenge from the White House.The Biden administration will be embroiled in crisis politics from Day 1.
The epidemic in the US right now looks terrifying, and Thanksgiving is on the horizon.The logic of economic crisis management is about time. The Democrats are going to have a hard time getting things through Congress, and the fact that things are so hard will divide them further.The Biden Administration will make early moves on climate.
It will be hard for Biden to take climate seriously without some kind of detente with China, but getting there is hard to imagine.After the health crisis ends, some jobs might not come back.
The effectiveness of short-term working means that the unemployment crisis has not yet hit in Europe.The US unemployment crisis is in full swing. So far, the bounce back has been relatively quick. But there will be a manifest social crisis.There are imaginably worse pandemics than this one, and yet we have responded in an almost unimaginable way.
This is a highly mediatized, diffuse threat that has acquired huge salience. This is the most extraordinary thing that has happened in modern economic history. A lot of this unprecedented response was voluntary.Mentioned in this Episode:
Biden’s piece in Foreign AffairsPaul Krugman’s latest piece for the NYTimesOur last episode with AdamFurther Learning:
The NYTimes’ COVID vaccine trackerMore on China’s pledge to become carbon neutral by 2060https://www.ideasfestival.co.uk/themes/festival-economicsAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:
Thu, 19 Nov 2020 - 45min - 356 - War: What Is it Good For?
We talk to the historian Margaret MacMillan about the changing character of war, from the ancient world to the twenty-first century. Do we still understand the risks? Where are the conflicts of the future likely to break out? And how can we reconcile the terrible destructiveness of war with its capacity to bring about positive change? Plus we talk about why war produces so much great art.
Talking Points:
Is the way we commemorate war distancing us from the reality of it?
Those who have seen war tend to be wary of it.There is complacency in a number of countries that war is something that ‘we’ don’t do anymore.War is terrible, yet so much of the innovation that we value seems intertwined with it.
For many people WWI exemplifies the futility of war, yet many of the things we value came out of that war, particularly political and institutional change. WWI essentially gave Europe modern welfare states and universal suffrage.The two world wars also led to much greater social equality.There seems to be a deep connection between peace and inequality, and violence and equality. But it might depend on what countries and what wars you look at.If war is connected to innovation because it is so wasteful you cannot recreate those conditions.
Perhaps we are doing something similar with COVID, but climate change is the true existential crisis.Climate change does not seem to be a unifying crisis.Declaring ‘war’ on an abstraction is dangerous. How do you know when it’s over? Wars on abstractions are wars without limits.Templates from the past don’t fully apply to the US-China relationship.
There is the nuclear element, which should hypothetically rule out war.There’s also the energy resource conflict question: China has been able to take responsibility for its own energy security.In the long run, it is in the interests of both the US and China to cooperate with each other. The problem is the political factor.Mentioned in this Episode:
Margaret MacMillan, War: How Conflict Shaped UsGeneral Nick Carter’s interview with Sky NewsWalter Scheidel, The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First CenturyRana Mitter, China’s Good War‘La Grande Illusion’Tim O’Brien, The Things They Carried‘Apocalypse Now’Further Learning:
Margaret MacMillan, Paris 1919Talking Politics History of Ideas: Max Weber on...Wed, 11 Nov 2020 - 38min - 355 - President Biden
Now that we have a result, David and Helen reflect on what the next four years might hold. What issues could define a Biden presidency? Has this election indicated a possible realignment of American politics? And is it enough to restore faith in democratic politics? If Trump is not how democracy ends, where does the real danger lie?
Talking Points:
Biden faces three big issues: China, climate, and COVID.
It’s probably not possible to go back to US-China relations pre-Trump. However, China does perceive this election as significant.Making climate a priority has implications for the China relationship.This was too close to be a realignment election. Both parties turned out their vote because they had oppositional energy.
But there are shifts within. Florida went red, but people voted to increase the minimum wage. California went blue, but people voted to resist the unionization of essentially Lyft and Uber workers.Trump has opened up the possibility for a more cross-racial, working class Republican Party. These shifts are still small, but it will be hard for them to go back to being a party of tax cuts for the rich, deregulation, and cultural conservatism.It’s more complicated for the Democrats. There has been a shift to the left, but there are also deep divisions in the party.A lot of the ‘Trump is how democracy ends story’ didn’t add up. How can American democracy have been so vulnerable, and yet so easily restored?
The threats to democracy: COVID, climate, and China, don’t fit electoral cycles.American democracy faces huge medium to long term challenges; too much energy has gone into short term risks.Trump has allowed people to close their eyes to deeper structural problems.Trump’s presidency did have serious geopolitical implications.
He changed American policy on China; most of the political class now regards China as a serious strategic rival.He changed relations with Iran, and, in doing so, relations with Europe.He pulled the US out of the Paris Climate Accord.Mentioned in this Episode:
China, climate, COVID: the new energy mapDavid’s book, How Democracy EndsDavid on TP: How Democracy EndsJoe Biden’s victory speechFurther Learning:
Biden’s endorsement interview with the NYTimes (on big tech and other things)Talking Politics American Histories: Monopoly and MuckrakingStacey Abrams’ fight for a fair vote, from The New YorkerAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Mon, 09 Nov 2020 - 30min - 354 - What Just Happened?
David, Helen and Gary convene on very little sleep to try to make sense of another extraordinary election. Though we still don't know who won, we do know that some things are going to get even harder for American democracy. What's the nightmare scenario: the loser refusing to lose, or the winner being unable to govern? Why did the pollsters get it wrong again? And what's likely to happen when the contest reaches the courts? Plus we ask if the American Constitution can cope with close elections any more.
Relevant Episodes:
From our Mini-Series:
History of Ideas on Tocqueville and American democracyAmerican Histories: The 15th and the 19th American Histories: Deporting Mexicans American Histories: The Great Abortion SwitcherooOld Episodes on Trump:
What Trump Means to UsOne-term presidents Can America CopeAmerican Fascism: Then and Now America First? Michael Lewis on Donald Trump (And Michael Lewis Updated)Trump and HistoryA Broader Perspective on US Politics:
The Talking Politics Guide to … the US Constitution Police State USAAdam Tooze on US vs. China Judith Butler: Then and Now Where Power StopsThe Talking Politics Guide to… the Gilded AgeInauguralsFrom the LRB
Wed, 04 Nov 2020 - 52min - 353 - Are Young People Losing Faith in Democracy?
David talks to Roberto Foa about his recent report into young people's attitude to democracy around the world. Why are millennials so much less satisfied with democratic politics than older generations? Can populist politics do anything to alter that? And what does the generation divide tell us about changing attitudes to Trump? Plus we discuss the generational politics of climate change, education and wealth inequality.
The report in full: https://www.cam.ac.uk/system/files/youth_and_satisfaction_with_democracy.pdf
Mon, 02 Nov 2020 - 27min - 352 - China, Climate, Covid: The New Energy Map
A conversation with Pulitzer Prize-winning author Daniel Yergin about the new energy map of the world. What impact has the shale revolution had on global politics? Is China winning or losing the energy wars? And will the energy transition happen fast enough for climate change?
Daniel's book: www.waterstones.com/book/the-new-map/daniel-yergin/9780241472347
Helen on oil: play.acast.com/s/talkingpolitics/oil-
Sun, 01 Nov 2020 - 31min - 351 - What Trump Means to Us
Helen and David talk about what four years of Trump - and of talking (and talking) about Trump - have meant for their thinking about America and about democratic politics. Is it possible to give a balanced picture of Trump's presidency? Have the last four years followed a pattern or has it just been chaos? What is the likely legacy of Trump's extraordinary level of global fame? Plus we discuss whether 2020 marks the beginning of the 'short' twenty-first century and what that means for Trump's place in it.
Talking Points:
Will historians see 2020 as the start of the ‘short’ 21st century?
If so, Trump belongs to the interregnum. He’s not a dramatic break. Certainly there are continuities, for example, in the Middle East. But there are also discontinuities with China and Iran.Is the pandemic a fundamental watershed?Is American power in decline?
In some ways, the US is more powerful this decade than it was the decade before.The US has a strong domestic energy supply again.The Fed is still an international lender of last resort.One of the consequences of the pandemic was that in March the Fed effectively extended an indirect dollar credit line in principle to China. The story about rising Chinese power is not straightforwardly at American expense. The domestic political turmoil in the US is going to be consequential to the American-Chinese strategic competition.The Republican party got what they wanted out of a Trump presidency, the courts.
In that sense, 2020 could be another watershed year: pre-Barrett and post-Barrett.Although history of the court suggests that partisan affiliations don’t always predict outcomes.Since the late 1960s/early 1970s, American politics has become judicialized. The crucial point is the intense politicization of these decisions.Trump invokes huge depths of revulsion in many Americans. Trying to stand back and look at his presidency historically can seem like moral indifference.
The narrative about Trump as a singular evil is the lens through which many people have lived their lives in the past four years.This narrative takes a pretty distorted view of the American past as well as the state of the republic before Trump.Trump seems incapable of understanding the distinction between the president as head of state and the president as head of government.Geopolitically, the Trump presidency has made a difference, especially in relation to China.Mentioned in this Episode:
Our post-election episode from 2016Our last episode with Gary GerstleOur last episode with Sarah ChurchwellOur most recent crossover with 538David’s review of David Cameron’s memoirsFurther Learning:
Hobsbawm’sAge of Extremes: The Short 20th CenturyThu, 29 Oct 2020 - 41min - 350 - Democracy for Sale
We talk to Peter Geoghegan of openDemocracy and Jennifer Cobbe of the Trust and Technology Initiative about Cambridge Analytica, money, power and what is and isn't corrupting our democracy. How easy is it to buy influence in British politics? Did Cambridge Analytica break the rules or show just how little difference the rules make anyway? Who has the power to take on Facebook? Plus we discuss why the British government's failure to handle the pandemic tells us a lot about the corrosive effects of cronyism. https://www.petergeoghegan.com/books/
Talking Points:
The ICO report on Cambridge Analytica largely concluded that their tactics were not unusual.
Of course, we can take issue with the fact these practices are so widespread. One of the reasons Cambridge Analytica was such a scandal was that people didn’t realise they could be targeted in this way.Cambridge Analytica and organizations like it can do is seed misinformation into a wider ecosystem. They take advantage of the lack of regulation.Sowing misinformation doesn’t require sophisticated skills; it’s easy.The conversation about micro-targeting often centers on Cambridge Analytica, but we need to look at the structures that make these practices so easy and so potent.
Facebook makes all of this really easy to do. Why were we so complacent? When we think about the influence of money in politics, it’s easy to imagine nefarious people throwing around big sums, but at least in the UK a small amount can go a long way when people have the right connections. This is cronyism.The pandemic has made the tech giants unthinkably wealthy.
At the same time, they’ve changed the way that money affects politics.Could Trump have won without Facebook and Twitter?The tech companies do not need to lobby politicians in the traditional sense because they are simply that powerful.Governments are dependent on these technologies, as we all are.
Can we think about the tech companies as the technical infrastructure of society?Right now, these companies have a huge amount of discretion.Cronyism has been a prominent feature of the UK Government’s COVID response.
There is a strain in a certain school of political thought that the state isn’t good for much. When politicians who believe that are in charge, it can be self-fulfilling.A hollowed out state creates space for more cronyism.The civil service has become a punching bag. This could have a long tail.Does the system that needs reform have the capacity to generate the necessary reforms?
When it comes to tech, the biggest problem is ideological.It’s hard to get politicians to agree that changing micro-targeting is necessary because they all use it.Politicians do not want to change a system that has benefitted them even if they can recognize its flaws. Can you build a coalition that would force them to do so?Mentioned in this Episode:
The UK Information Commissioner's Office report on Cambridge AnalyticaPeter’s book, Democracy for SaleJennifer’s recent piece in the GuardianThu, 22 Oct 2020 - 45min - 349 - Trump Stress Test
David talks to the historian Sarah Churchwell about how well America's political institutions have withstood the stress of the last four years. Have we seen the limits of presidential power or have we discovered how easy it is to trash those limits? Are constitutional checks and balances still intact? Is it really Mitch McConnell who is putting American democracy under stress? Plus we talk about what will be needed to restore the social contract and the perils of political humility.
Talking Points:
Many of the founding institutions in political life have been put under stress during the Trump administration.
Trump has said a lot, but he hasn’t done much. We’ll have a better sense of the extent of the damage after the election.Trump’s behaviour often gets more outlandish as the constraints on his power become more visible.The power of the U.S. executive has been growing, certainly since 9/11.
Both Bush and Obama strengthened the executive presidency. Some have argued that Trump’s incompetence precludes authoritarianism. Strong men have to be strong.But from an institutional standpoint, the Trump presidency has revealed that the American system is vulnerable to strongmen leaders.Because congressional Republicans have sanctioned his behaviour, Trump has not been as constrained as he might have been.
The other institutional check that often flies under the radar is states rights.The electoral system is bound up in local state power. Every state has a series of strong, legally required actions that go into certifying vote counts.So far, states rights has been the most effective check on Trump’s power.We focus on Trump, but the lasting legacy of the Trump presidency may be elsewhere.
If the lasting legacy of Trump is in the judiciary branch, it won’t be because he created a Trumpian judiciary. In this sense, Trump is the enabler of Mitch McConnell rather than the other way around.McConnell’s agenda is about obstructing the Democrats and consolidating Republican power.Trump has not been able to totalize authoritarian control.
Certain aspects of liberalism have gotten stronger during the Trump administration.There can be an authoritarian regime without an authoritarian state.Mentioned in this Episode:
Sarah on impeachment for Talking Politics American HistoriesSarah on TP on American fascismKimberly Jones, ‘How Can We Win’ Ross Douthat, ‘There Will Be No Trump Coup’Further Learning:
The 538 U.S. presidential election forecast Sarah on American Fascism for NYBooksWhat is originalism?The precedent, and perils of court packing in the...Thu, 15 Oct 2020 - 47min - 348 - Can Boris Survive Brexit?
This week we come back to Brexit and ask whether Boris Johnson has a good way out of the current negotiations with the EU over a trade deal. First we talk with Kenneth Armstrong, Professor of European Law, about the thinking and the reality behind the government's Internal Market Bill. Then David, Helen and Chris Brooke explore the politics of success and failure in the negotiations. Can the Union survive? Does the government have a coherent strategy? And how much trouble is Johnson really in?
Talking Points:
Is the Internal Market Bill just a negotiating tactic, or is it a genuine safeguard for a future world in which there is no trade deal?
The government is worried that the wording of the Northern Ireland Protocol risks the possibility of the EU overreaching in its interpretation in ways that would make it more difficult for the UK to pursue its own state aid policy, for example.The government is now saying that it would only invoke these provisions if the EU acts in ‘bad faith.’The problem with that argument is that the agreements already have their own safeguard mechanisms. Why do you need a domestic legal mechanism?The substance of the Internal Market Bill is also getting serious pushback from the devolved authorities.The EU has launched infringement proceedings against the UK.
It’s a structured process with different phases. The imperative is to try to seek a resolution without needing to take the action before the Court of Justice.The Commission’s argument is that the UK is acting on bad faith. In the transition period, the UK is effectively treated as a member state. What happens when the UK is fully outside of the transition period? For now at least, all this political theatre isn’t immediately derailing the process of getting an agreement on a future relationship.The ultimate obstacles to a deal are existential: the UK wants to guarantee respect for its autonomy, so does the EU.
The EU’s great fear is that the model of a social market economy that it has been building among its member states would be threatened if the UK could engage in regulatory competition or distorted subsidies with the EU.That’s why the level playing field rules and state aid are so important for the EU. There’s also the geopolitical question: the consequences for both sides of not reaching a deal would be significant.Johnson gave his conference speech and he barely mentioned Brexit.
The stakes of the ongoing negotiations are as high as they were a year ago, but the political heat—at least for now—has gone out of it.Johnson hopes that if you can get through the next few years and stabilize the Union from the present threats then it will be possible to put the Union on more solid constitutional groundings.This is a politics of crisis. There’s not a clear strategic vision.The pandemic has made the politics of devolution even more complicated because it’s created a de facto English government, which is the UK parliament.
The more the Scottish government, the Northern Irish government and the Welsh government disagree about what the rules should be, the more the fact that there is an English government comes to the surface.This becomes an electoral issue too.Is Johnson on his way out?
His track record may be a liability where the Union is concerned. There may be better people to lead the Conservative party on the Scottish question.Making a deal with the EU could hurt him with the Spartans of the European Research Group.Johnson’s health could also be an issue; that’s why he’s determined to show that he doesn’t have long-COVID.Mentioned in this Episode:
Thu, 08 Oct 2020 - 53min - 347 - One-Term Presidents
David talks to Helen Thompson and Gary Gerstle about the historical precedents for US presidents losing office after a singleterm. It doesn't happen very often, but it could be about to happen again! Can Trump use the powers of incumbency to prevent it? Can Biden use Trump's growing chaos to seal his fate? Plus we talk about the fall-out from the first presidential debate and we ask how the politics of the Supreme Court might intersect with a contested election result.
Talking Points:
One-term presidents are rare in American history.
Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush are the only presidents in the last 100 years who have lost reelection bids.When you take out third party challengers, you’re left with Hoover and Carter, two presidents who both failed to handle a significant national disaster.The Hoover and Carter cases came at turning points in presidential cycles.
1932 and 1980 signify profound shifts in political order: from Republican to Democrat, and then from Democrat to Republican. There is not a clear dominant party right now. You would expect a one-term presidency to be more likely when there isn’t a dominant party.In the Carter case, incumbency was perhaps a disadvantage.
He faced a difficult economic situation as well as the Iranian hostage crisis. Both Carter and Hoover got hit by an economic crisis for which the country was not prepared, for which there were no ideal or quick solutions.There’s never been a Supreme Court justice appointed and confirmed so quickly or so close to an election.
The Republican party thinks their future lies with controlling the courts.McConnell’s strategy might actually harm Trump in the elections; they are determined to do this even, potentially, at the cost of the presidency.If Barrett said she would recuse herself from ruling on the election, McConnell wouldn’t care, but Trump would.The debate may have been unedifying, but it clarified what was at stake.
Biden did not make a positive case for himself; his pitch was that he is not Trump.The overriding impression of the debate was chaos.Trump’s attempt to frame Biden as a creature of the left fell short. Trump made the presidency look cheap. The aversion factor matters: which of the candidates do most people find unacceptable? But Trump also dragged Biden into the chaos.What would happen if a Conservative court legitimated a Biden victory?Mentioned in this Episode:
The US Presidential DebateFurther Learning:
‘Hating on Herbert Hoover,’ from The New YorkerWhat happened with Merrick Garland? Six takeaways from the presidential debate from The New York TimesWho won the debate? From 538Frederick Wilmot-Smith in the LRB on the US Supreme CourtThu, 01 Oct 2020 - 1h 00min - 346 - Michael Sandel on the Case Against Meritocracy
David and Helen talk to the philosopher Michael Sandel about the damage that the idea of rewarding people on merit has done to education, democracy and public life. Why is it wrong to try to match the best students to the best universities? What is credentialism and how has it warped the way work is rewarded? Whatever happened to the idea of the common good? Plus we discuss America's sense of itself as God's chosen nation in the age of Obama and Trump.
Talking Points:
Places like Stanford and Harvard have more than 40,000 applicants for 2,000 places. Most of these applicants are qualified.
Michael thinks that universities should admit students based on a lottery.The meritocratic way of thinking about success and social recognition has produced and intensified an epidemic of credentialism. Should elite universities function as arbiters of opportunity?Even going to university hasn’t delivered what people expected. How do we translate what we can see is socially and morally wrong about our society into a different way of economically living?For decades, we have been told that the solution to inequality is individual upward mobility through higher education.
The ‘rhetoric of rising’ has run its course.How do we affirm and renew the dignity of work?What kind of jobs has the shift towards credentialism encouraged?
There’s a concentration around law and finance, as well as public sector or public administration jobs.The financialism of the economy is an important part of this story.The divide between winners and losers has deepend.It’s not just inequality: the people on top believe that their success is their own doing.Michael thinks that the sense of elites looking down on the less credentialed has fueled the anger and resentment that authoritarian populists have exploited.Could automation displace credentialism?The money people make, or the recognition they receive, is not a measure of their contribution to the common good.
It’s easy to outsource this kind of moral judgment to markets, but Michael thinks that’s a mistake.Can we reconfigure the economy to bring about a better alignment between the contributions people make and the rewards and recognition they receive?The pandemic has revealed the importance of jobs that are hugely undervalued, particularly forms of human care.There has been a structural, material transformation in Western economies since the 1980s that has gone hand and hand with the rise of credentialism and financialisation.
Industrial manufacturing employment has gone overseas.We are nostalgic about an age that no longer exists, including the role of trade unions, which had power in part because they could disrupt the economy through strikes.What happened to the nation as a source of identity and belonging?
The United States is a providential nation; the same forces of meritocracy can be at work at the national level.Is it possible to challenge the sense of providence in American democracy?Mentioned in this Episode:
Michael Sandel, The Tyranny of MeritThomas Wolfe, You Can’t Go Home AgainFurther Learning:
Michael in the Guardian: ‘The populist backlash has been a...Thu, 24 Sep 2020 - 52min - 345 - Robert Harris and V2
A Sunday extra with the novelist Robert Harris to talk about the V2 campaign of terror against London during WWII and the parallels with today. Plus we discuss the big questions of counterfactual history - could Hitler really have won the war? - and we ask whether Boris Johnson is anything like his political heroes, Cicero and Churchill.
Sun, 20 Sep 2020 - 30min - 344 - Jill Lepore on the Destructive Power of Tech
David talks to the American historian Jill Lepore about the damage new technology can do to democracy, from the 1960s to the present. Who first tried to manipulate the minds of the electorate? Where did the money come from? What happened when the same technology was applied to fighting the Vietnam War? Plus we discuss US presidential elections from 1960 to 2020: do the machines really decide who is going to win, and if he does win this time, what might Joe Biden be able to do about it?
Talking Points
The Simulmatics Corporation was one of the first data analytics companies founded in 1959.
They were collecting personal data, coming up with mathematical models for human behavior, making predictions, and selling that as a service.They got their big break in the 1960 election.Advertising was basically invented to defend corporations against muckraking journalists.
It became something else as modern consumer society emerged.Eventually, some of the ad agencies began working for the Republican Party. The Republican Party is the party of big business, so it’s nor surprising that they’ve always had a leg up in political advertising.Was the Simulmatics Corporation for real?
Their insights were not particularly startling.The Simulmatics Corporations were liberals who were trying to convince the Democratic Party to take a stronger position on civil rights by telling them that black voters could make a difference in the election.There’s something kind of creepy about the whole thing: a bunch of mid-century, white, liberal men building a machine to try to understand people of color and women.A tight election is good for huxters. There’s a huge, enabling industry of journalism to oversell this kind of technology.There’s a big gap between how we understand politics should work in the physical world and the mysteriousness and anarchy of the digital world.
Democracies are bad at reforming themselves because the winners are not incentivized to do it. The monopoly today is the monopoly of the means of doing politics. The pandemic makes it worse. We are now more wedded to our devices and it is harder to conduct campaigns outside of them.Mentioned in this Episode:
Jill Lepore, If Then: How the Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future Jill’s podcast, ‘The Last Archive: Who Killed Truth?’Sue Halpern on the Trump campaign’s mobile appFurther Learning:
Jill in The New Yorker, ‘How the Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future’Our last episode with Jill on the American NationJia Tolentino for the BBC, ‘The Story of a Generation in Seven Scams’Evan Osnos’ profile of Mark Zuckerberg for The New YorkerThu, 17 Sep 2020 - 42min - 343 - The Incompetence of Boris Johnson
This week we talk about the politics of incompetence: when does it matter and when can politicians get away with it. Have repeated u-turns during the pandemic damaged the government? Has Nicola Sturgeon had a better crisis than Boris Johnson or is it just competence theatre? Is the government's incompetence going to be enough to get Keir Starmer into Downing Street? With Helen Thompson, Chris Brooke and Chris Bickerton.
Talking Points:
Competence: does it matter?
What kinds of incompetence are likely to do this government the most harm?There have been a lot of u-turns in the policy and rules around COVID.Are these u-turns or is the government improvising in an unprecedented situation?The u-turns that do the most harm are those that are seen as a breach of trust.The important context for u-turns in British politics is Margaret Thatcher’s 1980 speech to the Conservative Party Conference.
Her predecessor, Ted Heath, did not stick to the manifesto line in government.She actually was making a u-turn in macroeconomic policy, but she had concluded that voters saw pragmatic chopping and changing as incompetence.The difficulty for Johnson is that there’s a general perception that the government isn’t entirely on top of things. The competence issue comes back to the surface.The internal market bill is being published and it will apparently renege on some aspects of the withdrawal act.
Being perceived as seeing yourself above international law is a risk for any government.In the context of Brexit, this is the consequence of how boxed in the Johnson government was when it came into power.COVID has revealed big differences between Westminster and the devolved governments.
Sturgeon in particular has pitched her government as more competent than the Johnson government.Critics of the SNP say that this is theatre. But the handling of the pandemic may well feed into the SNP’s pitch heading into what appears to be an increasingly imminent referendum, which they are increasingly confident of winning.But it’s not just the pandemic; it’s also the whole Brexit process.Can Starmer use competence as a lever? Can you win power through competence?
The opposition is not in a great place to set the agenda. A number of very important decisions will be made in the next year or so that change the political situation.Don’t underestimate the power of the Conservatives to replace Johnson.Many of Johnson’s ministers are creatures of his politics.What’s interesting about Sunak is that he doesn’t quite fit that template.Mentioned in this Episode:
Margaret Thatcher’s 1980 speech to the Conservative Party Conference (‘the lady’s not for turning’)Scottish support for independence rises in the pandemicWho is Boris Johnson?Further Learning:
More on the Internal Market BillThe Guardian’s view on the Internal Market...Thu, 10 Sep 2020 - 46min - 342 - The Politics of Loneliness
David talks to economist and author Noreena Hertz about loneliness and its impact on all our lives. How does the experience of loneliness shape contemporary democracy? What kind of politics could make us feel more connected? Can technology bring us together or is it driving us further apart? Plus we discuss the consequences of the pandemic for the future of work and the possibility of building a better world.
Loneliness has been rising among young people over recent years: 3 in 5 18-34 year olds feel lonely often or sometimes; nearly a half of 10-15 year olds.
Lockdown has likely exacerbated these numbers.So much of the interaction between young people is online; parents can’t see the exclusion.Loneliness is political as well as personal, social as well as economic.
Exclusion and marginalisation are also forms of loneliness.Can loneliness bridge generational divides?In the pandemic, we are all sharing a negative experience—will this produce solidarity or divisions?What solutions do politicians provide for solidarity?
In recent times, the left hasn’t provided a strong alternative notion of solidarity.The diminishment of trade unions and workplace solidarity play a part here as well. What politician will speak for the lonely?Democracy produces certain kinds of visibility and excludes others. What would it look like to be more open to the lonely?
There is a skillset associated with inclusive democracy that we are in danger of losing.There are inspiring examples of participatory democracy on the local level.In a lonely world, representative democracy filters out the lonely.If loneliness is the problem, and human beings are increasingly socially inept, the machines might step in.
In Japan, robot-human interaction is widespread, especially among the elderly.What will increasingly intelligent robots do to our relationships with each other?Mentioned in this Episode:
Noreena’s book, The Lonely Century: Coming Together in a World that's Pulling ApartNoreena on ‘Generation K’The Camden Citizens’ Assembly on the climate crisisFurther Learning:
The New York Times on how to manage lonelinessSolitary citizens: the politics of lonelinessMore on robotic eldercare in JapanOur episode with Yuval HarariAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 03 Sep 2020 - 44min - 341 - Thomas Piketty: Three Years On
We revisit our interview with the economist Thomas Piketty recorded the week Emmanuel Macron won the French presidency and David and Helen ask what we have learned since. Where does Macron fit on the left/right political spectrum? What has his cult of personality done to French politics? And are we anywhere nearer knowing how to tackle the problem of inequality? The last in our series of updates from the Talking Politics archive.
Show Notes:
Why isn’t inequality having a more primary effect on our politics?
Are ethnic and nationalist divisions trumping class divisions?Piketty’s research shows that nothing is pre-ordained, but it often takes a crisis to reorient politics.
In the 20th century, war plays this role. If you take war out of it, what happens?Can democracies deal with inequality without a crisis? Is there a democratic path to redress inequality?Macron relatively quickly became a politician of the centre-right.
This shouldn’t have been a surprise. What was harder to anticipate was the nature of the opposition, in particular, the Gilets Jaunes.Macron has become more preoccupied with the geopolitical than reforming the Eurozone.It’s easy to forget how contingent Macron’s rise was.Macron’s rise blew apart the French party system.
The failings predated Macron, but he did inject something much more personalized into French politics.Macron created a movement that could win a majority in the French legislature. During lockdown, however, he lost his absolute majority in the lower house because various people on the left defected.The larger story about economic choices, especially macroeconomic choices, being taken out of the hands of democratic politics took a particular shape in France.
Can we see Macron’s rise as an answer to France’s problems in the euro?Has COVID moved Europe any closer to answering questions about what engenders solidarity?
Piketty has been an advocate of quite radical institutional reforms towards a more centralised European project.Clearly the crisis has changed notions about common European borrowing. If you have debt, what kind of political solidarity sustains that debt? For there to be meaningful solidarity where debt is concerned, you need to see meaningful taxes. So far, this has not happened.Nor has there been any institutional reform in the last few months. That part of the Piketty project seems as far off as ever.Mentioned in this Episode:
Capital in the Twenty-First Century Last week’s episode with Lucia and HansFurther Learning:
Piketty’s most recent book, Capital and IdeologyWill coronavirus lead to fairer societies? Thomas Piketty explores the prospect for The GuardianAn interview with Piketty in The Nation about the virus and his...Thu, 27 Aug 2020 - 42min - 340 - Has Covid Rescued Europe?
This week we look at the big changes in European politics during the crisis and ask who has managed to turn it around. Is Italy now a model for crisis management? Has there been a reorientation in German politics under Merkel? Can the EU rescue fund really rescue the European project? Plus we discuss the long-term implications of big state politics for the future of Europe. With Helen Thompson, Lucia Rubinelli and Hans Kundnani.
Talking Points:
Over the summer, life—including political life—in Italy resumed some normalcy.
There will be regional and local elections, as well as a constitutional referendum, at the end of September.The government now seems to be on firmer ground. This has to do with the recovery fund, and the fact that the two main parties in the coalition have decided to run together.The Five Star movement had previously said it would never run with another party. It is becoming a more establishment party.Salvini’s comeback has slowed down.
Salvini has made several mistakes over COVID.The League runs the region that suffered the most during the COVID crisis. The president of that region, who is close to Salvini, is now embroiled in a corruption scandal that has to do with the process of buying PPE.Italy has stabilized the situation domestically by excluding those who are most radical about the euro and by getting ECB and wider EU external support for Italy’s debt.
In Germany, there is a sense that Merkel has moved quite radically on debt mutualization in the Eurozone. But there’s some misunderstanding about what the recovery fund does: it doesn’t deal with the pre-2020 macro imbalances in the Eurozone.During the negotiations in March, Conte was hard on the EU. But once it was negotiated, the tone switched completely.
The debate over the conditions of accepting money from the EU is almost completely focused on whether Italy should apply to the European Stability Mechanism. This doesn’t seem to translate to the recovery fund, which is surprising.Five Star can criticize Europe in one regard, while accepting everything else.But unhappiness with conditionality always reasserts itself in Italian politics because of Italy’s debt position and Eurozone fiscal rules.There is too much focus on Merkel.
Merkel has embodied a broad consensus in German politics that has existed for the last 15 years. She tends to go with the flow of German public opinion.The shift in Germany that led to the recovery fund is an example of this: she shifted because she saw public opinion shifting.The big questions are: who will be Merkel’s successor? And who will be the junior partner in the coalition that successor leads?In both Italy and Germany, there appears to be a doubling down on grand coalition politics.
In Italy’s case, this has involved co-opting a previous anti-establishment party. In fact, Five Star is now the senior partner.In Germany, it’s more about keeping out anti-establishment parties.There is a danger that the EU constrains countries from making the kind of shift toward state intervention that European governments currently want to make due to COVID.
This could become a problem down the line.If EU countries were unanimous about this shift, you could imagine a remaking of the EU, but the old divides will almost certainly come back.Mentioned in this Episode:
Our most recent episode with LuciaOur March...Thu, 20 Aug 2020 - 42min - 339 - Judith Butler: Then and Now
This week two conversations with the feminist theorist and writer Judith Butler: one recorded the week Trump won the presidency in 2016 and one recorded a few days ago, as his presidency (just maybe) approaches its end. We reflect on what has changed over the last four years, what has stayed the same, and whether our worst fears were realised. Plus Judith tells us what she sees when she sees Biden and what she hopes might come next. Two linked conversations about misogyny, racism, representation, empowerment, hope, rage, and the damage one man can do to democracy.
Further Learning:
Judith Butler: on COVID-19, the politics of non-violence, necropolitics, and social inequalityJudith Butler for the LRB on Trump’s death drive‘Judith Butler wants us to reshape our rage,’ from The New Yorker Judith on performativity and Black Lives MatterGender Trouble, Judith ButlerPrecarious Life, Judith ButlerThe Force of Nonviolence, Judith ButlerAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 13 Aug 2020 - 59min - 338 - Brexit, Trump and Aldershot FC
This week David and Helen talk with the historian David Kynaston about his diary of the 2016-17 season in football and in politics, when a lot happened both to the world and to his beloved Aldershot FC. It's a conversation about loyalty, identity and belonging, and about what sorts of change we can tolerate and what we can't. Plus Helen reflects on her life as a West Ham fan.
Talking Points:
For David Kynaston, football is about identity.
We all have our personal myths.Continuity of space, even colours, is also important.Football in Britain has derived a lot of meaning from the relationship between club and place.
The continuity between location and fan base broke at some point in the 1990s, maybe earlier. And then there are questions of ownership, management.For David Kynaston, football is rooted in place; politics is not.
Small and medium sized towns feel ‘left behind’; these places have also been left behind in the football sense. But anger about the inequalities or the premier league doesn’t have a lot of political purchase.What is the relationship between the planning period of the 50s and 60s and Brexit voters?
People who lived through that maybe had reasons to distrust people telling them what was best.There was also a coarsening of popular culture, led by Murdoch and the Sun.Mentioned in this Episode:
David Kynaston’s new book, Shots in the DarkAnthony Powell, A Dance to the Music of TimeColin Shindler’s books on Manchester Unitedand Manchester CityOur post-Trump episode David Goodhart on somewheres and anywheresLiverpool’s vote and Sun readershipThe Financial Times editorial on Trump and PortlandFurther Learning:
Helen on West HamHelen on coronavirus and the Premier LeagueAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 06 Aug 2020 - 43min - 337 - Whose Work is it Anyway?
David and Helen talk with Diane Coyle about what the pandemic has revealed about the changing nature of work. Who is doing more of it? Who is still getting paid for it? Which jobs are not coming back? Plus we explore the impact of the digital revolution on how we get rewarded for what we do and we ask whether the big tech firms can continue to hoover up so many of the rewards. Is Jeff Bezos really worth it?
Talking Points:
Since the post-war era, unpaid work in the home doesn’t get measured in formal economic statistics.
At the time, people argued it would be too hard to measure.When women went out to work in the paid workforce, the market started growing.The digital revolution brought a lot of things we paid for back into the home, for example, online banking.The pandemic has exacerbated existing social patterns and trends.
Women are more likely to have been laid off and furloughed. The hardest hit sectors, such as hospitality and retail, employ more women. All working parents have been hit hard.In a self-inflicted recession, the service sector has been hit hardest (instead of manufacturing).Key workers are not our best paid workers. Those who can work from home are, broadly speaking, more well off.Official economic statistics are analytical and statistical constructs.
If we ran surveys about what households are doing, we would have measures of these things. You can’t devise good policies about social care or pensions about understanding who is doing what. The statistics we have were created in relation to a particular mode of economic management: Keynesian demand management. We no longer think that’s a sufficient way of thinking about economic activity, or the more human issues around economic activity.The financial market economy today bears little relationship to the real productive economy.
This is essentially because central banks have (intentionally or not) propped up markets with asset purchases.We will see a continuation of the trend since 2008 of greater asset inequality.What has the pandemic done to people’s economic psychology?
Fear might make recovery harder. Certain sectors like hospitality and entertainment depend on people moving from one place to another and gathering in close proximity.People’s expectations from the government may also have changed.Information technologies have become part of our fundamental economic infrastructure and often these markets are dominated by only one corporation.
After 2008, large companies like Amazon that weren’t making profit at the time still had access to huge amounts of cheap credit and could engage in share buybacks. The end of people’s ability to physically go shopping has been a huge boon to Amazon in particular. Online retail doesn’t suffer like the high street.Right now, Amazon is seen to be providing a vital service. Does this make it less likely that policymakers will take it on?There may still be a shock coming, especially when the furlough scheme winds down.
Is it too late to save the brick and mortar economy?If we are moving towards a more digital economy, we’ll have to rethink taxes too.Will the pandemic take us back to an earlier version of the digital economy? Will we go back to living further apart?
There’s a limit to how much you can do online. The shift towards urban centers took off in the 90s, before the tech revolution. It’s probably more about the shift away from manufacturing towards service-sector economies.Mentioned in this Episode:
Thu, 30 Jul 2020 - 42min - 336 - Revisiting Yuval Harari
This week we go back to the first ever interview we recorded for Talking Politics, when David talked to Yuval Noah Harari in 2016 about his book Homo Deus. That conversation touched on many of the themes that we've kept coming back to in the four years since: the power of the big technology companies; the vulnerability of democracy; the deep uncertainty we all feel about the future. David reflects on what difference those four years have made to how we think about these questions now.
Talking Points:
In Homo Deus, Harari distinguishes between intelligence and consciousness.
Intelligence is the ability to solve problems; consciousness is the ability to feel things.Humans use their feelings to solve problems; our intelligence is to a large extent emotional intelligence. But it doesn’t have to be like that.Computers have advanced in terms of intelligence but not consciousness.What is more important: consciousness or intelligence? This is becoming a practical, not theoretical question.Artificial intelligence could create a new class—the useless class.
Institutions or mechanisms might become obsolete.In humanist politics, the feelings of individuals are the highest authority; could algorithms know your feelings better than you do?The idea of the individual is that you have an indivisible inner core and your task as an individual is to get away from outside forces and get in touch with your true, authentic self.
According to Harari, this is 18th century mythology.Humans are dividuals: a collection of biochemical mechanisms. There is nothing beyond these mechanisms.In the 20th century, no one could understand these mechanisms. We haven’t abandoned humanism—the rhetoric is still there—but it is under pressure.In a long-tail world, everyone has a little bit—there’s lots of tailored, personal politics—but there’s also a huge concentration of power and wealth.
Think of Google or Facebook: they are basically monopolies.Technology is not deterministic: it could still go in different ways.There is human pushback. Voters may be right in sensing that power is shifting, but are they right about where it is going?In the four years since this interview, machine intelligence hasn’t hugely advanced.
Machines are more a part of our lives, but they aren’t necessarily smarter.Are we becoming less intelligent as we adapt to a world increasingly dominated by machines?Human agency is not just under threat from machines. It’s also under threat from corporate power. Amazon is much more powerful than it was four years ago.Mentioned in this Episode:
Homo Deus‘Inside Out’David’s review of Homo DeusOur episode with Brett FrischmannDominic Cummings’s blogFurther Learning:
The Talking Politics Guide to… FacebookOn...Thu, 23 Jul 2020 - 45min - 335 - Twilight of Democracy
David talks to the writer Anne Applebaum about her highly personal new book, which charts the last twenty years of broken friendships and democratic failure. We start in Poland with the story of what happened to the high hopes for Polish democracy, including what we've learned from this week's presidential election. But we also take in Trump and Brexit, Hungary and Spain. What explains the prevalence of
conspiracy theories in contemporary politics? Why are so many conservatives drawn to the politics of despair? Is history really circular? And is democracy doomed?
Talking Points:
Yesterday, Poland’s incumbent president Andrzej Duda narrowly won re-election.
Anne thinks that this shows divisive politics can succeed.A central issue was LGBT rights: Duda said that LGBT was an ideology worse than communism.The ruling party now has 3 more years to continue undermining the press and the judiciary and putting pressure on anyone the party sees as a threat.The new illiberal way of thinking is not a totalizing ideology.
These are medium-sized lies, conspiracy theories.You can use conspiracy theories to undermine people’s trust in political institutions.Should we differentiate between conspiracy theories and opportunistic lying?When elections become about ‘who is really Polish,’ whoever wins gains a sense of legitimacy in excluding and discriminating against the ‘others.’
Can these arguments stand when the results are this close?The Polish government has tools to harass its opponents. It’s a vengeful state.The opposition now will probably fragment—this is what happened in Hungary.How did Brexit bring together figures like Johnson, Scruton, and Cummings?
Politicians, journalists, and propagandists can manipulate feelings of nostalgia into a political campaign and ride it into power.Did nostalgia have to be anti-European Union? In some ways, the EU is a bulwark against certain features of modernity.But to a certain breed of nostalgic British conservative, the EU would always be foreign. To them, the idea of negotiating, or co-deciding was fundamentally unacceptable.In places with a shorter modern democratic history like Greece and Spain, democracy has proved surprisingly robust.
The degree to which these forces win or lose is dependent on the local context.History shows that democracies do fail; if you neglect rotting institutions they can bring you down.Both complacency and cynicism can threaten democracy.Mentioned in this Episode:
Anne’s new book, Twilight of Democracy: The Failure of Politics and the Parting of FriendsAnne’s writing for The AtlanticWaPo’s Trump lie trackerFurther Learning:
A review of Anne's book in The Guardian, ‘How my old friends paved the way for Trump and Brexit’More on Poland’s electionThu, 16 Jul 2020 - 42min - 334 - Helen's History of Ideas
David talks with Helen to get her take on the history of ideas - both what's there and what's missing. Why start with Hobbes? What can we learn from the Federalist Papers? Where's Nietzsche? Plus we talk about whether understanding where political ideas come from is
liberating or limiting and we ask how many of them were just rationalisations for power.
Talking Points:
Should we start the story of modern politics with Hobbes?
Hobbes poses a stark question: what is the worst thing that can happen in politics? Civil war or tyranny?Is Hobbes’ answer utopian?What are the consequences of the breakdown of political authority—and how do they compare to the consequences of empowering the state to do terrible things?Who has the authority to decide is a fundamental question in politics.
But there are lots of ways of thinking about politics that avoid this question.If you accept the notion that political authority is essential, what form should that authority take and how can it be made as bearable as possible for as many people as possible?Constant says that the worst thing that can happen isn’t civil war; it’s the tyranny of the state.
To him, the French Revolution showed that when people who hold the coercive power of the state also hold certain beliefs, the damage can be much worse.Constant wants to say that the beliefs people have in the modern world are a constraint on political possibilities.What does the pluralism of beliefs mean for politics? Constant is also more direct about the importance of debt and money.From the French revolution onwards, nationalism became the dominant idea by which the authority of states was justified to those over whom it exercised power.
Sieyès equated the state with its people.The idea of federalism as enshrined in the US constitution is also important: Hobbes did not think sovereignty could be divided.
How do you reconcile constitutional ideals with the horrors they justified?Nietzsche forces a reckoning with the religion question.
This blows up the distinction between pre-modern and modern.He presents a genealogy not just of morality, but civilization, ideas of justice, religion.For Nietzsche, Christianity is the manifestation of the will to power of the powerless.Nietzsche tells us how we became the way we are—it didn’t have to go that way.In exposing contingency, he forces us to engage with political questions we don’t really want to think about.What do ideas explain about human motivation in politics, and to what extent are they rationalizations of other motives?
Helen thinks that the history of ideas can make political action seem too straightforward. How should we think about the relationship between ideas and material constraints (or opportunities)?Studying history more generally leads to at least some degree of cynicism about the relationship between ideas and power.Mentioned in this Episode:
Talking Politics: the History of IdeasThe Federalist PapersThe Genealogy of MoralityOur episode on Weber’s ‘Politics as a Vocation’Further Learning:
Thu, 09 Jul 2020 - 48min - 333 - James Meek on Healthcare: from WHO to NHS
David talks to the writer James Meek about what the Covid crisis has revealed about how we understand healthcare and how we think about the organisations tasked with delivering it. A conversation about hospitals and community care, about Trump's America and Johnson's Britain, and about WHO and NHS. James's writing on these themes is available on the LRB website https://www.lrb.co.uk/
Amy Maxmen on Ebola, Covid and the WHO
https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2020/243-ebola-covid-and-the-who
Sun, 05 Jul 2020 - 37min - 332 - Brexit in the Age of Covid
We have passed the deadline for any extension to the Brexit trade negotiations - now it's 31 December or bust. We catch up with three of our resident experts to explore what this means, what the chances are of getting a deal and where the sticking points might be. Plus we asses the impact of the Covid crisis on the fate of Brexit and its implications for what might happen later this year. With Anand Menon,
Catherine Barnard and Helen Thompson.
Talking Points:
The formal legal position is that it’s not possible to seek an extension of the Brexit transition period.
Perhaps the most likely thing is that—if there is a trade deal before the end of the year—it has a longer transition period built into the front of it.A second COVID spike in the autumn could make no deal more likely.
Are there things in the law that politics can’t fix?The COVID crisis has made the gulf between the two sides over the issue of state aid bigger than it already was, which reduces the space for fudging. You also have to deal with the Northern Ireland protocol.The UK doesn’t have a constitutional regime that protects things like workers rights and environmental standards in the way that treaty law effectively does in the EU.
It’s hard to imagine that any UK government would agree constitutional rules about these matters as part of a trade agreement with the EU or any individual state.At the heart of Brexit lies a claim to reassert the more traditional UK constitution against the constitutional constraints that EU membership generated.The Johnson government is not prepared to accept the EU’s argument about it’s economic sphere of influence.
This is a question for the EU as much as it is for the UK.Both sides are starting from competing premises; would more time be enough to sort this out? This begs a larger question about the EU’s relationship to its immediate neighborhood.The German constitutional court decision was a blow to the ECB and ECJ.
This gives the green light to those disaffected in Hungary and Poland.Do EU divisions make it more or less likely that they will fallout over Brexit? Macron’s position seems harder than it was towards the end of last year. There is no evidence he wants to move on the question of state aid.It seems unlikely that all 27 member states will have the same attitude towards a sovereign UK. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Britain can play them off each other.Couching the debate as deal vs. no deal instead of good deal vs. bad deal may give the Johnson government some wiggle room.
Even if the UK winds up making significant concessions on trade, for example.Mentioned in this Episode:
Talking with Adam Tooze about the German constitutional court rulingThe UK in a Changing EuropeThe Merkel interview from JuneFurther Learning:
George Peretz on the Northern Irish ProtocolMore on state aid as a stumbling blockWhat is the level playing field?Thu, 02 Jul 2020 - 44min - 331 - Burma's Hidden History
In this extra episode David talks to Thant Myint-U about the fraught recent history of Burma (Myanmar) and asks what it can teach us about twenty-first century politics. Why did the West have so many illusions about Aung San Suu Kyi? Can democracy really rescue the country? What model of development might work in the age of Covid and climate change? A wide-ranging conversation about the forces shaping our world.
Thant's website:https://www.thantmyintu.com/
Thant's book:https://www.waterstones.com/book/9781786497871
Sun, 28 Jun 2020 - 47min - 330 - Britain Wrestles with its Past
We talk with the writer and political commentator Fintan O'Toole about how British politics can and should deal with its imperial past in the age of Brexit. From battles over statues to fights over nationalism we explore whether history has become the new democratic divide. Why does Churchill loom so large over our politics? Can Labour reclaim the mantle of patriotism? Will the Union survive the history wars? Plus we ask whether there has been a generational shift in attitudes to race and identity. With Helen Thompson.
Talking Points:
Debates over statues and monuments are really more about the present than the past.
They don’t necessarily lead you to a real engagement with either your history or your contemporary identity.Britain has a long history of questioning how the past is thought about in the public sphere.Is it possible to have a serious political argument about Churchill’s legacy anymore?
In the age of Johnson, is everything a proxy? Churchill can’t be separated from the Second World War in British historical memory.The Churchill question goes deep into the Union question. If you take away the experience of the two world wars, it’s not clear what keeps the Union together.How do you articulate a sense of British patriotism when the state is in decline and the history it’s wrapped up in is often disgraceful?
For example, you could celebrate Britain’s move to outlaw the slave trade—but almost every historian would point out that this is shot through with hypocrisy.There’s a profound problem around the history of Britishness.Over the last 10 years, two different consensuses have broken down, and these interact with each other quite lethally.
First there’s consent to Britain’s membership in the EU; this broke down more in England and in Wales.Second is consent to the Anglo-Scottish union breaking down in Scotland.And the fact that the referendum produced a Leave vote meant that the Northern Ireland question came back into play.Nationalisms always want to purify themselves into victimhood.
What this does is occlude the complexity of the history of the nation itself.Nationalism involves telling a story about the past that often, though not always, involves trying to break away from some larger political authority, often an empire.Part of the present moment’s attitude towards British history is not new: the sense that British history was delegitimated by Empire has been there before.Mentioned in this Episode:
The FT reviews Andrew Adonis’ biography on Ernest BevinFurther Learning:
Fintan’s book, Heroic Failure: Brexit and the Politics of PainFintan on Boris JohnsonMore on ‘The Lost Cause’Fintan’s recent piece on Trump in the New York Review of BooksAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 25 Jun 2020 - 47min - 329 - American Fascism: Then and Now
David and Helen talk with historian Sarah Churchwell about the origins, uses and abuses of the idea of American fascism. Where does American fascism come from? Does it follow a European model or is it something exceptional? What role do white supremacy and anti-Semitism play in its development? How close has it got to power? Plus we ask the big question for now: Does it make sense to call Trump a fascist?
Talking Points:
Trump’s decision to hold a rally in Tulsa on 19 June is an act of clear provocation to African Americans, especially at this moment.
19 June 1865 was the day the last slaves were emancipated, two years after the Emancipation Proclamation.The symbolic deferral, the fact that white people were actively denying black people full rights and citizenship, is what Juneteenth came to represent. Tulsa is where the worst race riot in American history occurred in 1921. The white population of Tulsa descended on a thriving black community.The Trump campaign was forced to move the rally a day. It will happen on 20 June.Is fascism the right word for what has happened—and is happening in America?
The second Klan rose between 1915 and 1922.The commentariat at the time pointed to Mussolini and fascism to explain the Klan’s resurgence.Hitler looked at the US and took aspects, including the legal institutionalisation of white supremacy, especially in the South, as an inspiration. But there is something quite specific about European fascism in the 1920s that has to do with the fallout of the First World War.Fascism is ultra-nationalism. It has to be different in every country: it’s highly situational, highly historicized.
It can be hard to pin down because each iteration takes its own form.Is it historically accurate to call the present moment fascist? Is it useful?Is calling Trump a fascist too comforting? Does it keep us from seeing the reasons why he won?Is it useful to think about American nativist, conspiratorial, racist, xenophobic, anti-semitic gorups as being recognizably fascist going back in time?Mentioned in this Episode:
Sarah and TP American Histories on the 15th and the 19th amendmentRobert Paxton, The Anatomy of FascismPhilip Roth, The Plot Against AmericaSinclair Lewis, It Can’t Happen HereJonathan Shanin on Tom Cotton’s op edFurther Learning:
Sarah on TP: America First? Sarah on the dark history of America FirstSarah’s book, Behold AmericaThu, 18 Jun 2020 - 47min - 328 - David King on Climate Repair
An extra episode in our climate season: we talk to Sir David King, former Chief Scientific Advisor to the British government, about what's now known about the scale of the threat and the urgency of the need for action. What has happened since the Paris agreement? What is the Chinese government most afraid of? What is the meaning of Extinction Rebellion? And is it time to start talking about refreezing the poles to repair the damage already done?
Tue, 30 Apr 2019 - 48min - 327 - Police State USA
We talk to Adom Getachew, Jasson Perez and Gary Gerstle about the politics of protest and the politics of policing in America. What does 'Defund the Police' mean in practice? Is the current crisis likely to empower or curtail the surveillance state? How are the current protests different from ones we've seen in the past? And where Minneapolis leads, will the world follow? Plus we talk about the implications of the protests for the November elections.
Talking Points:
The ‘defund the police’ movement has gained a lot of ground in the last few weeks.
This movement wants to defund and disband the police and invest resources in things that get at the roots of harm and violence in communities. Minneapolis already had a successful campaign to divest. Local organizations knew how to relate to a spontaneous rebellion and use that energy to push the agenda. Other cities will have to figure out how to do this in their organizing communities. Alternatives to policing exist but they are chronically underfunded.We associate the last 30 years with state shrinkage, neoliberalism, and disinvestment from public goods, especially education, but there has been an ongoing increase in police spending.
The pandemic—and a growing sense that we don’t have basic public necessities—has led people to question the normalcy of increasing police spending.Growing expenditure has not really helped the communities where violence persists. Police have failed on their own terms.Cities are also paying out a lot on police misconduct cases.There are two things going on: historically recognizable violence, but also the risk that this movement empowers the move toward technological forms of violence.
Big data police tech presents itself as the solution to racist policing and police brutality.Demands to defund the police must be coupled with restrictions around private policing and surveillance.The American federal system is set up to stymie change, so moments like this are rare but important.
It starts from the outside—from protests—and then the elite begin to rethink their role in the regime.Are there any useful historical analogies?
Gary thinks the labour uprisings of the 1930s, which pressured FDR to make a leftward turn, more closely parallel what’s happening now than 1968. The scale and depth of this—and the level of public support—are unprecedented.The uprisings of 1968 generated a particular elite response. The movement for black lives is responding to the world that comes out of 1968 and the 50 year bipartisan consensus on policing that emerged from that moment.Trump is an incumbent and this happened on his watch. That’s different from the 1968/Nixon story.
What will the Democrats do? And how far will they go to meet the demands?What is the vector through which protest politics gets channeled to become a mechanism for generating policy? In the absence of organized labour politics, there are no clear mediating institutions. The pandemic presents a risk: if there is another spike, Trump will blame protesters.Mentioned in this Episode:
Eyes on the Prize (documentary)David’s LRB review of Rahm Emanuel’s book, The Nation CityThe Politics of...Thu, 11 Jun 2020 - 53min - 326 - What Just Happened at the New York Times?
In an extra episode, we're back with last week's guest Jonathan Shainin, Head of Opinion at the Guardian, so he can talk us through the big blow-up at the NYT. What has it taught us about about the new battlegrounds in newspaper opinion? Where does power now lie in newspaper offices? And where does Jonathan draw the line between what can and can't be published? In our next episode, voices on the ground in the US.
Further Reading:
The Tom Cotton Op-Ed from the New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/03/opinion/tom-cotton-protests-military.html
Michelle Goldberg in the NYT
Tom Cotton Op-Ed under review:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/04/business/new-york-times-op-ed-cotton.html
The creation of the NYT "op-ed" page, which was launched in 1970
The history of the "objectivity norm" in American journalism
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/146488490100200201
Mon, 08 Jun 2020 - 29min - 325 - Matt Forde
David talks to comedian and host of the Political Party podcast Matt Forde about his lockdown experiences and about his life with the Labour party: before, during and after the Corbyn years. Plus we discuss the ways in which political allegiances are (and aren't) like supporting a football team.
https://planetradio.co.uk/absolute-radio/presenters/matt-forde/
Sun, 07 Jun 2020 - 45min - 324 - Facts vs Opinions
David and Helen talk with Jonathan Shainin, Head of Opinion at the Guardian newspaper, about the challenges of political journalism in a deeply polarised age. Is it possible to hold the line between news and comment? Are the arguments about Covid a rerun of Brexit? What can scientists and historians add to political analysis? Plus we discuss how American journalism has changed the way it talks about race and violence and what that means for the current moment.
Talking Points:
The heightened state of political opinion writing around Brexit seems to have dissipated.
The opinion pages became a vehicle for a kind of tribal politics. There was a relentless urgency to it: was that illusory?Technology revealed the enormous appetite for news and commentary related to Brexit.People want updates and then they want trusted voices to add to the experience and understanding of events.Is there a distinction between emotional and analytical opinion pieces?
Opinion pages will always reflect partisan opinions.To what extent is an opinion piece feeding into a libidinal appetite among readers? Is there a role in either the Guardian or the Telegraph for an opinion piece that would be comprehensible to the other side?One thing John set out to do is to reduce the frequency of opinion pieces.
In the early days of the pandemic, a lot of the pieces were explanatory and written by experts. Can we separate scientific expertise from political judgment?Analytical pieces aim for a different kind of persuasion.
Historians and political theorists can say: can we think about things in a different way? No form of journalism can be made bulletproof against weaponised forms of skepticism or cynicism.The classical model of how the facts, the news, and the demos interact is now outdated.
A new model would have to capture the chaos and instability between these elements.Journalism feels more urgent, yet the urgency is accompanied by diminished authority.Has Trump revealed the limits of the analytical mode?What happens when there isn’t room for reasonable disagreement?Mentioned in this Episode:
Ian Jack on the Scottish Independence Referendum David’s piece for The Guardian, It was all a dream’William Hanage for the Guardian on COVIDMelanie Philips in the Times on COVIDAlan Finlayson on why we should stop complaining about tribalismHelen’s piece on football for the New StatesmanDavid on climate denialismFurther Learning:
David and...Thu, 04 Jun 2020 - 45min - 323 - Dan Snow on Covid History (and Cummings)
David and Helen talk to the historian Dan Snow about the parallels for the current crisis. Is it like past pandemics or is it more like a war? What has it exposed about the weak spots in our societies? And what have we learned about the role of political leadership? Plus we explore the value of Churchill comparisons on the 80th anniversary of his great WWII speeches and we dip our toes into the Cummings affair.
Talking Points:
Lockdown, quarantine, social distancing have been borrowed from the past.
This is not as great a mortality or morbidity event as past pandemics, at least yet.But we are not as separate from past human experience as many people would like to believe.Perhaps the better comparisons are the forgotten ones: 1957 and 1968.
The other main comparison is the Spanish flu, which was far more lethal.Politicians treated these past flus as background events. This crisis is all consuming.Most people in 1919 died at home. Health infrastructure changes the conversation.The politics of healthcare are central to this—especially because governments decided that protecting health systems would be the priority.This event has exacerbated existing faultlines, but also, things that we’ve assumed were facts of life have been completely halted.
Can things go back to ‘normal’?There may be more homeworking, but will there be less air travel?Pandemics expose weak spots in societies. Western societies are old and increasingly unhealthy. This is a disease that targets the old and the unhealthy.Are future historians more likely to see this as an economic crisis than as a health crisis?
We’ve been in monetary unknown territory since the early 1970s. When we look back at the economic narrative, we’re going to be looking at a much longer story about what happens when the world’s central banks allow polities to live with much more debt outside of wartime.Are we now health-fiscal states?
The state, in Hobbesian terms, exists to keep people alive. In the modern world, that means both health and external security.We should expect the state to show itself for what it is in both war and health crises.The health side becomes more important in aging societies.Johnson is trapped between what the pandemic looks like it requires with regards to Cummings and his government’s ability to deal with Brexit.
Johnson does not want to face the next phase of Brexit negotiations without Cummings.For Johnson to sacrifice Cummings now would be existential for his government; that’s why he doesn’t want to do it.Mentioned in this Episode:
History HitTP with Richard Evans on choleraJohn Oxford on the Spanish Flu for BBCDemocracy for Realists by Christopher Achen and Larry BartelsOur most recent conversation with Adam ToozeFurther Learning:
More on the 1957 and 1968 pandemicsThu, 28 May 2020 - 47min - 322 - Bread, Cement, Cactus
David talks to the writer Annie Zaidi, winner of the Nine Dots Prize, about her remarkable memoir of life in India and the search for identity. It's s story of conflict, migration, belonging and the idea of home. We also discuss what home means for Indians now the country is under lockdown and Annie tells us how life is in Mumbai.
*The sound is not great, we are sorry. It is nicer to listen through speakers than on headphones*
Further Reading and listening:
Annie Zaidi's book
https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/bread-cement-cactus/75DCB40487D5CD8DCB772761555CF10C
Nine Dots Prize
Annie Zaidi speaks to Qudsiya Ahmad, Head of Academic Publishing at Cambridge University Press India
http://www.crassh.cam.ac.uk/gallery/video/nine-dots-prize-winner-annie-zaidi-indian-society
Guardian article about the Indian migration caused by lock-down
Sun, 24 May 2020 - 54min - 321 - Europe Blows Up
How does a judgement of the German constitutional court threaten to explode the European project? David talk to Helen Thompson, Adam Tooze and Shahin Vallee about what the court's decision might mean for the Euro, for the response to the pandemic, for Franco-German relations and for the future of central banks. Can the great European fudge continue? And what happens if it can't?
Plus a bonus chat with Ed Miliband and Geoff Lloyd from the ‘Reasons to be Cheerful Podcast’ https://www.cheerfulpodcast.com/
The German Constitutional Court ruled that the ECB’s QE program is illegal.
It says that the German government has failed to control the ECB’s program and its compliance with the German constitution.It ruled that the European Court of Justice made an illegal judgment.And it gives the ECB 3 months to provide a clear analysis and a new decision. If not, the German government can’t continue to participate in QE.This raises three fundamental political questions:
Does EU law take precedence over national law? Has the ECB ventured too far outside of monetary policy?Should the ECB’s independence be as absolute?Monetary union rested on a sharp distinction between monetary policy, which was going to be a matter for the EU, and the rest of economic policy, where there was going to be no federal authority.
The economic premise of monetary union is no longer supported by a great number of people in the monetary union.Of course the advocates of the system believe the fudge.This is a very political judgment.
The ruling inadvertently opens the question not only about the financial constitution, but, more deeply, if it’s time for the monetary union to have a proper fiscal risk sharing instrument, a proper budget, and political accountability.The judgment forces a conversation about the architecture of the monetary union.Part of this judgment is about democratic control over otherwise unaccountable institutions.
The German Constitutional Court is one of the anchors of the success of German democratic model since 1949.It acts as a driver of modern constitutional jurisprudence.Independent central banks were meant to reign in the inflationary tendencies of democratic governments. Now their primary role is to guard against the forces of deflation.
They have changed their character while maintaining their form.The ECB’s QE was an absolutely massive bond buying scheme.The court is registering the need to start talking about re-legitimising and redefining the role of central banks.Mentioned in this Episode:
The last time we talked to AdamAdam on the death of the central bank mythFurther Learning:
More on the German court’s decisionMore on the Franco-German planShahin on MacronAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 21 May 2020 - 55min - 320 - Labour and Brexit: Beyond the Crisis
David is joined by Helen Thompson and Chris Brooke to try to get beyond the current crisis and work out where British politics is heading. How different is Starmer's political programme likely to be from Corbyn's? Can the Labour party become the party of the workers again? And is Brexit really going to happen without an extension and without a deal? Plus we explore the renewed influence of the trade unions and ask what it means for the political choices ahead.
Talking Points:
What kind of Labour Party is Keir Starmer looking to create?
He never presented himself as a Corbynite, though there are some significant leftward moves policy wise.Labour is a more recognizably a social democratic party than it was during the new Labour era.We probably will see party management return to something that is more familiar from Ed Miliband’s era. Starmer seems to be moving away from a Green New Deal kind of Labour politics.Does moving back to being a workers’ party move you away from being a students’ party?
Once you have enough people going to university and acquiring a lot of debt to do so, the question of separation between workers and students starts to fall away.The nature of work is changing.The current crisis may give Starmer a chance to cut across these divides.Issues about unions and workplaces go to the top of government policy at the moment.
The unions will be pushing health and safety issues as far as they can.The unions can make a better case that they’re on the side of ordinary people.The universal basic income question has emerged again.
Starmer doesn’t seem to be that keen.Public opinion isn’t fully behind UBI.A lot depends on the medium-term economic fallout, especially the employment damage.So far, the biggest hits have come in the service sector.Starmer is trying to move on from Brexit.
Is this just tactical? The government will have to make decisions on Brexit. The virus could be easier for the government to move towards a no trade deal exit.From the point of view from the EU, negotiating a trade agreement with Britain is even less of a priority now.Mentioned in this Episode:
Starmer’s column on VE dayPeter Sloman’s book, Transfer StateFurther Learning:
The New Statesman on Keir StarmerUnion leaders sound warnings about the return to workIs Keir Starmer like John Smith?And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 14 May 2020 - 44min - 319 - Ebola, COVID and the WHO
David and Helen talk this week with Amy Maxmen, senior reporter at Nature. Amy has covered the Ebola epidemic in Western Africa and now COVID-19 in the US. Does she see comparisons between the two? What explains the failures of the US response? Can the WHO still make a difference? Plus we explore the implications of the growing politicisation of science. When did data become so divisive?
Talking Points:
There are significant parallels between what is happening now and epidemics such as ebola.
Outbreaks turn slight cracks into gaping holes: they reveal political and systemic issues.Politics made the ebola outbreak in DRC worse.
Conspiracy theories emerged that ebola was being used to suppress the political opposition.Ultimately Tedros and other experts were able to convince both politicians and local leaders to focus on the public health response instead of the politics.The parallels to the US now are clear, but could any figure get past the politics?For Amy, the lack of tests and the failure to contact trace and quarantine made it clear that the U.S. response would be much worse than she had feared.
The U.S. hasn’t faced a pandemic in a long time and there was no sense of the kind of coordination that would be required. Different states are still doing different things.There’s a lot to be said for supply chain management right now.
In an ideal world, we would get a vaccine sooner rather than later. But we don’t know.Funding for vaccines is great, but the basic public health response still needs to be funded.The WHO is now getting politicized, but they still have the most experience at coordinating things like this at a global level.
A lot of people misunderstand what the WHO can and can’t do. It’s pretty small in terms of both budget and power.The WHO can’t enforce things; it works through diplomacy and relationships. But there is still a lot of power in that.If you need people to stay home; you need to be sure that you can support them.
Supporting people alleviates public pressure to prematurely lift the lockdown and it ensures that people can actually survive.Mentioned in this Episode:
Amy on the WHO’s fight against Ebola in the DRCHow the US dropped the ball on testing and contact tracing back in MarchOn tests going unused in US labsThe NYTimes on how the Trump administration ignored WHO warningsFurther Learning:
Nature on why the WHO is so important right nowMore on how low and middle income countries are responding to the crisis More on the ebola outbreak in Sierra LeoneAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 07 May 2020 - 49min - 318 - David Miliband on the Crisis
We talk with David Miliband, head of the International Rescue Committee, about the impact of the pandemic on the world's poorest countries. What happens in places where social distancing is not possible? Plus we discuss the long-term implications of the crisis for the future global co-operation and global conflict. Is this the moment for social democracy? More details of the work of the IRC can be found here: https://www.rescue-uk.org/
Talking Points:
By fluke or demography, the virus has not hit places such as the Middle East or sub-Saharan Africa yet in full force.
In places with rampant extreme poverty, the story will be different. It’s not a tradeoff between health and economic well-being in the same way. The crisis demonstrates the holes in the global safety net.There are parts of the world where social distancing is impossible.
Population density heaps danger on insecurity.You’re only as strong as the weakest link in the chain—look at Singapore. They had the disease under control but it came back among migrant labour communities.Right now, there is more myopia than global thinking.
Conversations about easing lockdowns are centered on what happens within the state, or maybe groups of states.There is a vacuum of global leadership.Is it possible to have institutions that can manage this kind of interconnectivity?The politics of the WHO are part of its problem.
How much executive power do you want to vest in international institutions?For legitimacy, they depend on the support of nation states, but for efficacy, they depend on their ability to stand independent of nation states.Right now America is a flagship for dysfunction.
The frailties that have been exposed have big implications.In the UK, the so-called populist attack on elite or establishment institutions seems to have been reversed in this crisis. Not in the US. What does this say about social trust?New inequalities in the service economy have been brought to the surface.
Holes in the global safety net have also been exposed.The scale of the economic response means that issues of economic security will probably remain present.Mentioned in this Episode:
David M. in The New Statesman Polling on coronavirus and decreased trust in the mediaFurther Learning:
The IRC report on corona in vulnerable statesMore on privacy and coronavirus tracing appsCoronavirus in an age of inequalityAnd as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:lrb.co.uk/talking
Thu, 30 Apr 2020 - 42min - 317 - History of Ideas: Wollstonecraft on Sexual Politics
Mary Wollstonecraft’s A Vindication of the Rights of Woman (1792) is one of the most remarkable books in the history of ideas. A classic of early feminism, it uses what’s wrong with the relationship between men and women to illustrate what’s gone wrong with politics. It’s a story of lust and power, education and revolution. David explores how Wollstonecraft’s radical challenge to the basic ideas of modern politics continues to resonate today.
To get all 12 talks - please subscribe to the new podcast - Talking Politics: HISTORY OF IDEAS. https://tinyurl.com/ybypzokq
Free online version of the text:
http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/3420Recommended version to purchase:
https://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/texts-political-thought/wollstonecraft-vindication-rights-men-and-vindication-rights-woman-and-hints?format=PBGoing Deeper:
In Our Time on Mary Wollstonecraft Wollstonecraft in the Stanford Encyclopedia of PhilosophySylvana Tomaselli, Wollstonecraft: Philosophy, Passion, and Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2020)Virginia Woolf on Mary WollstonecraftEdmund Burke, Reflections on the Revolution in FranceJane Austen, Sense and SensibilityTue, 28 Apr 2020 - 47min - 316 - History of Ideas: Hobbes on the State
Thomas Hobbes’s Leviathan (1651) reimagined how we could do politics. It redefined many of the ideas that continue to shape modern politics: representation, sovereignty, the state. But in Leviathan these ideas have a strange and puzzling power. David explores what Hobbes was trying to achieve and how a vision of politics that came out of the English civil war, can still illuminate the world we live in.
To get all 12 talks - please subscribe to the new podcast - Talking Politics: HISTORY OF IDEAS. https://tinyurl.com/ybypzokq
Free online version of the text:
https://www.gutenberg.org/files/3207/3207-h/3207-h.htmRecommended version to purchase:
https://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/texts-political-thought/hobbes-leviathan-revised-student-edition?format=PBGoing Deeper:
David Runciman, ‘The sovereign’ in The Oxford handbook of Hobbes (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013)Richard Tuck, Hobbes a Very Short Introduction (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002)(Video) Quentin Skinner, ‘What is the state? The question that will not go away’(Video) Sophie Smith, ‘The nature of politics’, the 2017 Quentin Skinner lecture. Noel Malcolm, Aspects of Hobbes (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004)David for The Guardian on Hobbes and the coronavirusMon, 27 Apr 2020 - 1h 00min
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