Demography Unplugged with Neil Howe

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we devote most of our conversation to China's decennial census. The results were mysteriously delayed, which had many insiders suspecting a dreaded population dip. But recently released provisional data show a slight population increase to 1.41 billion people. Could this be? I go behind all the ins and outs of how China counts its population, and provide theories on what the "true" count may be. Bolsonaro on the defense. Brazil's Senate has opened an...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we pay tribute to John Williamson and Walter Mondale, RIP. Williamson died at the age of 84. He is most famous for in 1989 defining the "Washington Consensus," a list of what emerging market economies should or must do to succeed. While his theory is no longer popular, it was highly influential following the Reagan and Thatcher era. Mondale died at the age of 93. He famously lost the presidential election of 1984 in an abject defeat to Ronald Reagan....

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the future of Biden's agenda. Last week, the White House officially unveiled its $2T infrastructure package. The plan is popular among the public, and due to reconciliation, it only needs 50 votes to pass the Senate. Biden will also try to pass a minimum wage increase, a voting rights bill, and immigration reform. But these bills can't be passed through reconciliation and will need 60 votes to bypass the filibuster. While their chances of ...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss Biden's immigration strategy. Currently, the White House is using former President Trump's executive orders (notably Title 42) to handle the nearly 6,000 daily border crossings. But what's Biden's long-term plan? It largely mirrors the 2013 Senate bill, penned by the "Gang of 8." Undocumented immigrants could become citizens if they pay taxes, take a background test, and work in the US for an additional eight years. Turkey's Lira tumb...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss Biden's infrastructure package. The plan will cost nearly $4T over ten years. The money will be divided as follows: $1.4T for straight infrastructure, $600B for clean energy, $400B for manufacturing, $300B for innovation/R&D, and $800B for the caregiver economy. To pass this bill, Senate Democrats will need to use reconciliation. If it does pass, it will be a major win for Biden. Infrastructure has broad bipartisan appeal among the gen...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss Biden's and the Democrats' agenda. The Senate has passed the massive $1.9B stimulus package. The bill is also set to pass the House this week. This was a major win for the Democrats. Not only is the package popular among the general public, but it has considerable support among Republican voters. Biden has now turned his efforts towards HR.1, a voting reform package. This bill has almost no chance of passing the Senate, and it takes away f...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I answer listener-submitted questions. Is multi-generational housing a long-term trend? Are we transitioning from an ‘era of logic’ to an ‘era of emotion’? Is America paralleling the decline of the Roman Empire? I go in-depth on all of these questions and more. China accelerates "Hanification" efforts. Xi Jinping's cultural campaign aims to transform all non-Han cultures in China into "Han" culture. These efforts include promoting Han food, Han ...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the current state of the GOP. Last week, ten Republican representatives voted to impeach--and seven Republican senators voted to remove--Donald Trump. That is the largest number of other-party senators voting for removal from office in U.S. history. A day later, Trump excoriated Mitch McConnell, calling into question his leadership. The GOP once prided itself on unity while the Democrats struggled to pull together. Now the tables have turn...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I answer listener summited questions. Is Joe Biden a grey champion? Is America in danger of entering a new war? Does policy matter in times of extreme partisanship? Is America paralleling the decline of the Roman Empire? Have pandemic lockdowns created a new baby boom? I go in-depth on all of these questions and more. We start the podcast with a brief market update and a world news roundup. Former ECB president Mario Draghi has been asked ...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I replay my recent conversation with JT Taylor, Hedgeye's Chief Political Strategist. We look back at the results of the 2020 elections and how changes in demographics and partisanship will affect the Biden White House and the 117th Congress. JT and I also examine the upcoming elections in 2022 and 2024.We start the podcast with a brief market update and some overall lessons from the recent GME saga. For more on my take on GME, you can turn to this m...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the threat of Covid-19 adaptive mutations. Moderna-NIH just released their new study on the effectiveness of the Moderna vaccine against the South African mutation. Yes, the vaccine protects against the new variant, but the antibodies' strength is reduced by 4 to 6X. This is the first sign that vaccines will most likely need to be updated in the future. Suga's public approval plummets. The Japanese PM's approval rating has fallen from...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the future of the economy. I predict we will see three distinct phases. In the next few weeks, the economy will continue to decelerate, with accompanying market turbulence, to the mobility drop associated with Covid-19. But going forward over the next several months into the summer, both will go strongly positive, buoyed by the vaccine and Biden stimulus. In 2H, however, look for outlook to darken just when the party is rockin'--due ...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the Georgia elections. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossof beat Republican incumbents Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue. Both Warnock and Ossof won by over 0.5%, avoiding an automatic recount. Ultimately this is good news for markets. While traditional wisdom says markets want a divided Congress, the recent chaos has led them to hope for a united government.Pro-Trump protesters storm the Capital Building. Despite the protesters' wishes, the siege ...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the latest news on vaccines. The FDA reports that the Moderna vaccine is "highly effective" after examining the trial data. They are expected to give emergency approval by Friday. The Moderna vaccine is easier to handle than the Pfizer vaccine because it does not need to be stored at Antarctic temperatures. This will be key to supplying rural communities.The US is likely to enter an accelerating recovery in 1Q + 2Q. How quickly is open to ...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I replay my recent interview with Brian McGough, sector head of Retail here at Hedgeye. In this interview, we take on the longer-term consequences of six big earthquakes shaking the retail universe. 1. The Home Improvement Effect/Household Formation. 2. E-comm vs. Brick & Mortar shopping. 3. Fast-Fashion, Slow Fashion, and Thrifting. 4. Branding – Relevance then vs. now. 5. Retail Bankruptcies and Mall closures. 6. Amazon vs. Walmart.Brian ...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I replay my recent interview with Andrew Freedman, sector head of Communications here at Hedgeye. The last time Andrew and I got together in June 2020, we discussed "Media in the Pandemic Age," examining how the crisis has impacted consumption trends by generation. This time around, we take a deep dive into three topics: online dating during the pandemic, the ever-evolving potential of interactive media, and the possible regulation of social media. A...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the race for a vaccine. Both Pfizer and Moderna announced that preliminary data show that their vaccines are over 90% effective. Yet despite the good news, there are still some major hurdles for these vaccines. 1. They have to be stored at sub-zero temperatures. 2. There is deep public distrust in their safety. 3. There hasn't been time to study their long-term effects (ADE, cross-reactivity, immunity duration, etc.).Is political polling d...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I replay my recent interview with Keith McCullough, Hedgeye's CEO. In the interview, we talk about the election, what the polls got right and wrong, and how 2020 fits into our longer-term 4th Turning perspective on history and generational change. A large section of the interview was spent answering listener questions. And as usual, we start the podcast with an update on the S&P's recent rise while examining how Biden's economic policies could af...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I replay my recent interview with JT Taylor, Hedgeye's Chief Political Strategist and Paul Glenchur, Hedgeye's Senior TMT Policy Analyst. With the election a few days away, the race for the White House and Congress is on track to be the most divisive and expensive in history. Joe Biden, while fading slightly in his lead over Donald Trump, remains decisively ahead. For Trump to barely squeak by in the Electoral College, he would need an incredible sur...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I replay my recent interview with John Mauldin, founder of Mauldin Economic, and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. We have a wide-ranging conversation from the recent CBO projections to the state of the election to the next Fourth Turning. And as usual, we provide a brief market update while checking in on the race for the White House. **********The content featured here is a small part of Hedgeye’s Demography Unplugged, a game-changing market intel...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I replay my recent interview with Ami Joseph, sector head of Technology here at Hedgeye. We discuss the key headwinds and tailwinds for technology in the coming years. The topics we discus range from the growth in cloud software, the shift to modularity, Microsoft's newest GenX CEO, the antitrust thundercloud, and many of the geopolitical challenges facing tech. We also add a market and election update at the beginning of the episode.**********The co...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I replay my recent interview with JT Taylor, Hedgeye's Chief Political Strategist. We look at the current state of the presidential race and how the Supreme Court vacancy affects the election. We do the same for the Senate and House races. We also take a deep dive into the issues surrounding mail in voting and the possibility of a contested election. JT and I walk listeners through all the possible scenarios if there is an unclear winner. I also add ...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the current state of the election. RCP has Biden holding a steady edge at 50% to 43%, and his betting odds are gradually improving at 55% to 44%. The NYT released a new report on Trump's finances claiming he pays minimal taxes and has millions of dollars in personally guaranteed debt. The story has three possible implications. Either: (a) Trump has not been a successful businessman; (b) Trump's tax avoidance has veered into tax evasion; or...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the new Supreme Court vacancy. Trump wants to fill the position with a woman who has a pro-life background like federal appeals judge Amy Coney Barrett (circuit judge for US Court of Appeals for the 7th Circuit) or Barbara Lagoa (11th Circuit judge US Court of Appeals). Trump has no choice but to try and fill the position; it's a big motivator of evangelical support. And Democrats have no choice but to oppose adamantly. The open seat could...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I replay my recent interview with JT Taylor, Hedgeye's Chief Political Strategist. We look into the state of the race for the presidency and how Trump and Biden are doing in all the battleground states. We do the same for the Senate and House races, and also break down voter trends by demographic group. And we end our discussion with all the things that can go wrong in a mail-in election. And by things going wrong, I include here a possible constitut...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the Fed's annual retreat at Jackson Hole. Beamed in virtually to the retreat, Jerome Powell formally announced that the Fed is changing its policy of pre-emptively raising rates to avert future inflation. The Fed will wait until inflation is modestly or well above +2% before they raise them. Those who attended also heard from eminent economists who presented historical evidence linking epidemics and economic depressions (even brief ones) t...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the latest trends in Covid-19. In the US, we are starting to see a very gradual decline in deaths following a more significant month-long decline in cases. Weather is clearly a factor in the dropping infections. An outbreak abroad underlies several themes we have often spotlighted. On Aug 8, in a South Korean Starbucks, an infected person sat under an air conditioner and infected 66 people, all of whom weren't wearing masks. No one wearing...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the Democratic National Convention. This week the DNC will run from Monday through Thursday night. The convention has stressed Biden's moderation. On Monday night, unusually, four prominent Republicans were to invited on stage to denounce Trump and endorse Biden. While the on-line "infomercial" format might fire-up the base, the lack of a live audience probably dampens the excitement for most Americans. Still no progress on stimulus. ...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discus the current state of the market. The S&P500 is closing in on its previous high in early February, despite the global economy experiencing the greatest supply shock in history. Why are stocks on the rise? For one, there is $3 trillion on the Fed's balance sheet. The federal government has spent over $3 trillion in stimulus. And the Fed has nailed the yield curve to the floor. The rest of the podcast is a replay of my conversation wi...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the possibility of future inflation. There are already multiple warnings signs that inflation is coming. The US dollar continues to fall as industrial metals and agricultural prices rise. Gold is up 18% since early May. And since mid-May, M2 is up YoY 23%. We've never seen such rapid YoY growth in the money supply since we have data (that is, going back nearly to the Civil War). One possible exception came in 1944, at the peak of global wa...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss Americans' growing gloom regarding Covid-19. Over the last month, Americans are becoming more pessimistic about whether the pandemic is getting better or worse; about how long it will last; and about its long-term impact on the economy. The shift has come after nearly four weeks of rising daily case numbers--and after nearly one week of rising daily death numbers. According to Pew, 71% of Americans now say that thinking about the state of ...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss Trump's odds of victory. For the last few weeks, according to futures markets, Trump's odds of beating Biden have been in steep decline. Trump still faces steep odds. But last week he seemed to be making a comeback. Biden's advantage has eased from 23% down to 18%. While the media fiercely criticized his 4th of July speech, his patriotic take on America's past presidents and defense of statues at Mount Rushmore most likely left a good impr...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the possibility of re-inflation. Gold and industrial metals are all on the rise. And at the same time, the US dollar is declining. What does all this mean? Well for China, they might be able to salvage a positive GDP growth for 2020. But for the US, this could mean a return to inflation. Re-inflation would force the Fed's hand to take away the punch bowl and could threaten to cut the S&P boom.Economic indicators remain largely negative...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discus the good, bad, and the ugly surrounding the markets. On the bad news front, COVID-19 cases are rising. Emerging markets continue to see skyrocketing rates of infection. And in the US, Western states are now seeing a rise in cases. Another point of concern is 2nd quarter earning reports. These will be released in the next few weeks and have the potential to spook markets. On the good news front, the Fed is here to save the day. The Fed is al...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I interview JT Taylor, Hedgeye's Chief Political Strategist. Together we discuss everything from the race for the White House, to the state of the Senate, to the future of stimulus. With the current state of the pandemic and the George Floyd protests there is now an expanded list of swing states. If Trump loses any of the states he won last election, Biden could easily be victorious. Looking to the Senate, Democrats are hoping to take control. With a...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we talk about markets in the short term versus the economy in the long term. Markets are still on the rise, with the Fed promising to keep interest rates near zero. But while the market is rising, the future of the economy is uncertain. Soon PPP and UI bonuses will run out with congress giving no signs of additional stimulus. Additionally, a recent OECD report predicts devastating GDP losses around the world without a second wave--and even worse with...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we talk about the nationwide protests over the death of George Floyd. In American history, eras of declining youth violence typically give rise to calls for a higher standard of justice from law enforcement officers. That's happening today. Since the mid-1990s, the crime rate in America has fallen dramatically, making the current mood ripe for reform--from the First Step Act, to #cut50, to more humane policing. Thank the Millennial Generation for thi...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we talk about the hope for a vaccine. On Monday, markets rose with the news of positive results from the latest Moderna study. While the study was technicality a phase 1 trial, testing if the drug is safe for human consumption, they also did preliminary tests on its effectiveness. Of the 8 patients tested, all showed levels of antibodies equal to or above those of someone who has recovered from COVID19. While RNA vaccines are extremely promising, the...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we talk about the "no-win" argument against containment. In Sweden and some parts of the US (including the White House), politicians are arguing that containment as a strategy offers no advantage. They say that the same number of people will die with containment as they would pursuing herd immunity, but meanwhile containment destroys the economy. This argument misses success stories like Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, and Australia--all countries ...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I discuss Americans' broad backing for stay-at-home orders. Recent polls from the WP/University of Maryland and the AP show Americans are largely supportive of statewide restrictions. 80% of Americans support stay-at-home orders, while 22% think restrictions on public gatherings don't go far enough. If states that reopen see significant second waves, governors will have hell to pay. Economic indicators continue to fall. In the US, the ISM Manu P...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I discuss the market "narrative" surrounding COVID19. The market expects immediate and total recovery with no second wave, unlimited stimulus support, and for the market to rise higher than before. But right now, we are in the eye of the storm. By June, we could be seeing the start of a second wave and waking up to the true economic damage. Continued stimulus? Right now, both Democrats and Republicans support big government spending. We expect m...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I discuss my three crisis signals: the US dollar, commodities, and gold. The USD continues to ride high despite Fed success in sinking our sinking yield curve. On the commodities side, oil has spiraled downward, going as low as $-36. And gold remain elevated but slightly down over the last week. The equity rebound momentum is slowing, and IVol has been flat at just over 40.What's the plan? The US, along with other nations, still doesn't have an exit ...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I discuss measures of market panic that have either started to ease or that remain elevated. On the easing side, implied volatility as measured by the VIX is today around 40: That's only half of its peak of just over 80 a few weeks back, but it's still twice as high as it was two months ago. Credit spreads have also shrunk but are still closer to their highs than to the pre-crisis levels. On the elevated side, the USD, relative to other major currenc...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I discuss the big question that is the focus of the world's attention: the trajectory and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic. If you look at total cases or deaths in RoC terms--or look at the geographic extent of the pandemic-- the news over the past week has not been good. There is no letup in the total exponential growth rates. 9 days ago, we were at 10,000 deaths outside of China. Last night we were at 38,000 deaths. Ten days from now we are on tra...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I discuss whether this recession could become an extended depression. Public figures and economists are projecting single or double quarter collapses in U.S. GDP never before experienced since the birth of quarterly data in 1947. Most major economies in the world are going into shutdown mode in response to the COVID-19 threat, and that's like turning off a giant master switch in the global economy that no one has ever seen turned off before.3M Treasu...

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I discuss the epic market swings. As of Monday close, the SP500 is down -29.5% from its recent high 18 days ago. Over the last week, hundreds of stocks we're hitting circuit breaker limits every day. On two mornings, Monday and last Thursday, the entire NYSE hit it's negative 7% circuit just after opening. The VIX hit 83, an all-time record. It surpasses the 2 readings of 80 during the worst of the '08 crisis.The yield curve is in turmoil due to Fed ...

5:50: In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I discuss which equities crashed and by how much. Energy and financials have fallen the fastest. Energy due to the plunge in oil prices, and financial due to the plunge in the yield curve. Around the rest of the world, the equity plunge was equally steep. The Global Dow is down 15.2% over the last 10 days and was down 7.7% yesterday. The markets that have fallen the most are mainly emerging market countries in Latin America and the weaker econo...

2:50: In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I discuss how the yield-curve inversion has drastically steepened once again. By end of market yesterday, the 10Y closed at only 1 bp above its all-time low yield on July 5, 2016. Meanwhile, the 3M dropped to 1.53%. 10 days ago, the 10Y-3M inversion was thin, only 2 bp. At close of market yesterday, it had widened to 15 bp. The odds of another cut are now sharply rising. See "Power of the Spread, Revisited" for further yield-curve analysis.&nbs...

3:00: Is all this bullishness related to Trump? A lot of it hinged on President Trump's extraordinary week from his acquittal to his State of the Union address to the Democratic mess in Iowa. The possibility of Trump's re-election this year suddenly ratcheted much higher. That's positive to a lot of global investors who like Trump. And it's even positive to a lot of investors who dislike Trump because it removes uncertainty.12:35: Coronavirus remains worrisome. According to the official numbe...