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Investing is the best way to build wealth, but comes with risk and uncertainty. Want to grow a portfolio of stocks, bonds, ETFs and more? This is the show to boost your knowledge and build your confidence. Join us on the journey through bull markets, bubbles and crashes. Bring snacks and a steady hand; we're in it for the long haul... Hosted by Ramin Nakisa (YouTube @PensionCraft) and Michael Pugh. Contact us: mhr@pensioncraft.com
- 146 - Trump 2.0: Political Risk and Complacent Markets, with Economist Larry Hatheway
Political risk is one of the most unquantifiable aspects of investing — and one of the most consequential. Shifts in regulation, tax and trade policies can shake economies and upend asset prices.
Our guest today is economist Larry Hatheway, who argues that markets vastly underestimate the dangers of a second Trump presidency.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Are trade deficits a problem?
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Thank you to Raisin UK for sponsoring this episode.
Raisin UK is a free, easy-to-use online savings platform, with savings accounts from over 40 FSCS-protected banks and building societies. Simply register, apply to open as many accounts as you like, and manage everything with a single login. Elevate your savings game today.
What's more, you can receive a £100 bonus when you register and fund your first savings account with a minimum of £10,000 using the code "SAVINGS100". For more details, please go to raisin.co.uk/pensioncraft
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 20 Nov 2024 - 46min - 145 - Maxed Out Markets: Investing When Everything Is Expensive
How should you invest when everything is expensive?
Stock market valuations are stretched, gold is up 40% on a year ago, and bitcoin has hit an all-time high. With some analysts forecasting a ‘lost decade’ for US stocks, is it time to look elsewhere?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why is Warren Buffett holding so much cash?
---
Thank you to Raisin UK for sponsoring this episode.
Raisin UK is a free, easy-to-use online savings platform, with savings accounts from over 40 FSCS-protected banks and building societies. Simply register, apply to open as many accounts as you like, and manage everything with a single login. Elevate your savings game today.
What's more, you can receive a £100 bonus when you register and fund your first savings account with a minimum of £10,000 using the code "SAVINGS100". For more details, please go to raisin.co.uk/pensioncraft
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 13 Nov 2024 - 40min - 144 - Gilt Yields and Ghosts of Budgets Past: Who's Afraid of Bond Vigilantes?
Gilt yields rose after the Autumn budget as markets absorbed sharp rises in investment, taxes and borrowing. Does Liz Truss’s mini-budget still haunt UK debt markets? And is there a risk that investors will shun UK debt?
In today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does public investment ‘crowd out’ or ‘crowd in’ private sector activity?
---
Thank you to Raisin UK for sponsoring this episode.
Raisin UK is a free, easy-to-use online savings platform, with savings accounts from over 40 FSCS-protected banks and building societies. Simply register, apply to open as many accounts as you like, and manage everything with a single login. Elevate your savings game today.
What's more, you can receive a £100 bonus when you register and fund your first savings account with a minimum of £10,000 using the code "SAVINGS100". For more details, please go to raisin.co.uk/pensioncraft
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 06 Nov 2024 - 39min - 143 - Chance, Risk, and the Art of Uncertainty, with Sir David Spiegelhalter
Investing is an uncertain journey, where chance, risk, and luck are constant companions. But can understanding probability help us live with the unknown?
We're joined by Sir David Spiegelhalter, Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge and author of 'The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk, and Luck'.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: ‘Would you want to know when you will die?’
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 30 Oct 2024 - 47min - 142 - Election Economics: Will A Trump Win Upend Markets?
The US Presidential election is less than two weeks away, and the result hangs in the balance. While markets appear calm, a second Trump term could have profound effects on global economies and investments. We discuss how the so-called 'Trump Trade' might impact different assets and sectors.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is a strong or weak dollar better?
---
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Claim free fractional shares worth up to £100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link:
When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Pies & Autoinvest is an execution-only service. Not investment advice or portfolio management. Automatic investing refers to executing scheduled deposits. You are responsible for all investment and rebalancing decisions. Free shares can be fractional. Terms and fees apply.
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 23 Oct 2024 - 43min - 141 - Time vs Money: How the Clock Transforms Your Investments
Investing, at its core, is about postponing consumption in the belief that time is your friend. Yet time has powerful effects on all aspects of markets, magnifying returns, blunting volatility, and warping the very value of money itself.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why can’t we time the market?
---
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Claim free fractional shares worth up to £100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link:
When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Pies & Autoinvest is an execution-only service. Not investment advice or portfolio management. Automatic investing refers to executing scheduled deposits. You are responsible for all investment and rebalancing decisions. Free shares can be fractional. Terms and fees apply.
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 16 Oct 2024 - 40min - 140 - Bracing for the Budget: Tax Rises, Black Holes & Growth, with Paul Johnson from the IFS
Despite record tax revenues, Britain's public services are struggling. So what's gone wrong and how do we fix it?
We sit down with Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and author of Follow the Money,to unpick the issues behind Britain's stagnation.
We explore the structural challenges facing the UK economy, strategies to revive growth, and which taxes might rise in the upcoming budget.
---
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Claim free fractional shares worth up to £100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link:
When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Pies & Autoinvest is an execution-only service. Not investment advice or portfolio management. Automatic investing refers to executing scheduled deposits. You are responsible for all investment and rebalancing decisions. Free shares can be fractional. Terms and fees apply.
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 09 Oct 2024 - 48min - 139 - Beijing’s Big Gamble: Stock Markets Soar On China's Stimulus
China’s economic boom has slowed as debt, deflation, and demographics weigh on the economy. Beijing belatedly announced a massive stimulus package, cutting interest rates and funnelling money into the stock market. But will it be enough to turn around the world's second biggest economy?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s the difference between fiscal and monetary policy?
---
Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.
Claim free fractional shares worth up to £100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link:
When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Pies & Autoinvest is an execution-only service. Not investment advice or portfolio management. Automatic investing refers to executing scheduled deposits. You are responsible for all investment and rebalancing decisions. Free shares can be fractional. Terms and fees apply.
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 02 Oct 2024 - 41min - 138 - Productivity Crisis: Is Europe A Basket Case?
Europe has suffered relative decline in recent decades, beset by sluggish economic growth, ageing populations, and stagnant wages. Meanwhile, the success of US Big Tech firms has seen America come to dominate global markets. We dig into a new report from the European Union to see if it offers a way to get Europe growing again.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is “productivity”?
---
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 25 Sep 2024 - 41min - 137 - Smart Ways to Stash Your Cash: Banks, Bonds & Money Market Funds
Sometimes you need a safe place to stash your cash. Savings accounts, bonds and money market funds are all options but how can you maximise returns? And should you ‘lock in a rate’?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s wrong with Premium Bonds?
---
Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode.
Sign up to claim GBP 200 back in online trading fees when you open an account with Saxo today via:
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 18 Sep 2024 - 39min - 136 - Confronting Uncertainty: Building a Financial Plan in an Uncertain World
Creating a financial plan for your future requires estimating numerous unknown variables. How fast will your investments grow? How much will inflation erode your savings? Will taxes increase? We discuss the most important risks to consider and how to build a reliable plan in an uncertain world.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Will care costs ruin the plan?
---
Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode.
Sign up to claim GBP 200 back in online trading fees when you open an account with Saxo today via:
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 11 Sep 2024 - 41min - 135 - Mean Reversion in Markets: What Goes Up Must Come Down?
Mean reversion is one of the most powerful forces in financial markets. When returns, valuation or concentration rise to extreme levels, it’s usually only a matter of time before they come back into line with history. We discuss which aspects of markets are subject to mean reversion, and how long we might have to wait.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: If you love mean reversion so much, why do you hate technical analysis?
---
Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode.
Sign up to claim GBP 200 back in online trading fees when you open an account with Saxo today via:
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 04 Sep 2024 - 38min - 134 - Boom and Bust: Ranking the Biggest Bubbles in History
Asset bubbles are an occasional, inevitable, and sometimes devastating feature of financial markets, making and breaking fortunes along the way. But what is the greatest bubble of all time? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are markets rational?
---
Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.
Claim free fractional shares worth up to £100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link:
When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Pies & Autoinvest is an execution-only service. Not investment advice or portfolio management. Automatic investing refers to executing scheduled deposits. You are responsible for all investment and rebalancing decisions. Free shares can be fractional. Terms and fees apply.
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 28 Aug 2024 - 49min - 133 - The Default Pension Trap: What to Consider BEFORE You Switch Pension
Nine out of ten people are invested in their employer’s default pension strategy. However, a hands-off approach might not suit your personal circumstances, goals, or risk appetite. So, what should you consider before switching your pension?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is it worth filling gaps in your National Insurance record?
---
Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.
Claim free fractional shares worth up to £100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link:
When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Pies & Autoinvest is an execution-only service. Not investment advice or portfolio management. Automatic investing refers to executing scheduled deposits. You are responsible for all investment and rebalancing decisions. Free shares can be fractional. Terms and fees apply.
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 21 Aug 2024 - 39min - 132 - Volatility Trading: Making Money from Market Swings
Volatility comes with the territory when owning risky assets, yet investors still seek ways to hedge against it—or even profit from it. So, how can you capitalise on market turbulence, and is it worth the effort? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the MOVE index?
---
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Claim free fractional shares worth up to £100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link:
When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Pies & Autoinvest is an execution-only service. Not investment advice or portfolio management. Automatic investing refers to executing scheduled deposits. You are responsible for all investment and rebalancing decisions. Free shares can be fractional. Terms and fees apply.
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 14 Aug 2024 - 43min - 131 - Market Mayhem: Flash Crash or Full Blown Crisis?
Stock markets have been pummelled in recent days — is this is a flash crash or the start of something bigger? And why has fear spread so suddenly?
We look at the potential culprits, including weak economic data, central bank surprises, and sky high valuations. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Should you buy the dip?
---
Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.
Claim free fractional shares worth up to £100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link:
When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Pies & Autoinvest is an execution-only service. Not investment advice or portfolio management. Automatic investing refers to executing scheduled deposits. You are responsible for all investment and rebalancing decisions. Free shares can be fractional. Terms and fees apply.
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 07 Aug 2024 - 40min - 130 - Metal of the Future: Has Copper Come A Cropper?
Copper is integral to the global economy, and its importance will only increase as the world decarbonises its energy infrastructure. Bulls have long argued that supply will fail to keep up with rising demand, driving copper prices higher. So why have prices slumped in recent months? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Who is ‘Doctor Copper’?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 31 Jul 2024 - 33min - 129 - Don't Get Burned: Avoid Single Points of Failure in Your Finances
A botched software update hobbled IT systems around the world, grounding planes and taking TV stations off-air. But it’s not just computer systems that can crash and burn from an innocuous mistake — welcome to the ‘single point of failure’. We discuss underappreciated risks that could devastate your personal finances.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is any investment completely safe?
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 24 Jul 2024 - 35min - 128 - David vs Goliath: Small-Cap Stocks Finally Surge
Last week saw a massive shift in markets, with unloved sectors and smaller stocks outperforming the mega-caps by a record amount. Is Big Tech’s dominance drawing to a close? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are small-cap funds forced to sell their winners?
---
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 17 Jul 2024 - 38min - 127 - UK House Prices: Is the Slump Over?
After prices peaked two years ago, higher mortgage costs have caused the market to stall. But with rate cuts on the horizon, is normal service about to be resumed? We discuss how the change of government will affect the housing market. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does building more houses really lower prices?
---
Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode.
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 10 Jul 2024 - 33min - 126 - Home Country Bias: Should You Overweight Domestic Stocks?
Diversification is the only free lunch in investing, yet many investors choose to overweight their domestic stock market. While the UK makes up a mere 4% of global markets, off-the-shelf portfolios often include shockingly large allocations to British firms. We discuss whether home country bias is a problem or if there are good reasons to favour domestic stocks.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What are safe-haven currencies?
---
Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode.
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 03 Jul 2024 - 39min - 125 - Mid-Year Market Update: Are Things As Good As They Seem?
We’re halfway through the year, and it’s time to take stock. The AI narrative continues to power the equity bull market. Central banks have started to cut interest rates. And the US Presidential election looms large.
We debate if things are as good as they look and what risks lie ahead for the second half of 2024. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What isn’t priced in?
---
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Claim free fractional shares worth up to £100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" or via trading212.com/join/ramin
When investing, your capital is at risk. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Other fees may apply. Interest applies on the uninvested cash in your account. Free shares can be fractional. Terms apply.
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 26 Jun 2024 - 39min - 124 - Will A Labour Government Be Good For Investors?
Labour is 20 points ahead in the polls and looks set to form the next UK government. But how will their economic, tax and spending plans impact investors? We look at the promises included in Labour’s manifesto and what was left unsaid. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why are capital gains taxed at a lower rate than income?
---
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Claim free fractional shares worth up to £100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" or via trading212.com/join/ramin
When investing, your capital is at risk. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Other fees may apply. Interest applies on the uninvested cash in your account. Free shares can be fractional. Terms apply.
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 19 Jun 2024 - 43min - 123 - Interest Rate Cuts: Coming to a Central Bank Near You?
Central banks in Europe and Canada cut interest rates for the first time since the pandemic, lowering borrowing costs and kicking off the easing cycle. Are the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve about to join them? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does it matter if inflation stays above 2%?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 12 Jun 2024 - 32min - 122 - Trade Wars: How Will Tariffs on China Impact Your Investments?
Should investors fear the escalating trade war between the world’s two biggest economies? US President Joe Biden recently announced a slew of new tariffs on Chinese imports, including a massive 100% charge on electric vehicles. What comes next? And in today's Dumb Question of the Week: Is China uninvestable?
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Claim free fractional shares worth up to £100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" or viatrading212.com/join/ramin.
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 05 Jun 2024 - 39min - 121 - Building a Multi-Factor Stock Portfolio, with Ed Croft
The evidence suggests that certain types of stock tend to beat the market in the long run. Patient investors can reap higher returns by tilting towards stocks that are cheap, high-quality or rising in price.
But how easy is it to identify undervalued companies? And what risks are involved in building a DIY portfolio?
This week we speak to Ed Croft, the co-founder of Stockopedia, about multi-factor investing and a quantitative approach to stock selection.
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 29 May 2024 - 49min - 120 - Bond Battle: Individual Bonds or Bond Funds?
As interest rates have risen, more and more people are interested in buying bonds. Individual government bonds can be a useful tool to lock in a high rate. But do individual bonds really make more sense than bond funds?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 22 May 2024 - 44min - 119 - Building a Bulletproof Retirement Portfolio, with Tyler from Portfolio Charts
Designing a retirement portfolio is one of the thorniest problems in investing. The mix of assets you choose dramatically affects how much you can safely spend during retirement. Withdraw too much from your pot, and you risk running out of money.
We’re joined by the creator of Portfolio Charts to examine optimal asset allocation. Tyler has modelled retirement scenarios around the world, identifying portfolios that help you sleep well at night and make the most of your money.
Selected links
Global Withdrawal Rates – Portfolio Charts What Global Withdrawal Rates Teach Us About Ideal Retirement Portfolios---
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 15 May 2024 - 1h 00min - 118 - Earnings Season: Can US Stocks Deliver the Goods?
With valuations stretched, American stocks need to deliver the goods this earnings season. Companies must grow their profits and defend their margins or risk the end of the S&P 500 bull market. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a ‘blackout period’?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 08 May 2024 - 34min - 117 - Payout Puzzle: Does Dividend Investing Make Sense?
Many investors favour stocks that pay a high dividend, opting to live off the cash they generate. Even stingy US tech companies have started to pay dividends. But does a strategy focussed on income make sense? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is ‘Shareholder Yield’?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 01 May 2024 - 39min - 116 - Should you de-risk your portfolio before retirement?
A stock market crash early in retirement can leave you struggling to live off your investments. We discuss de-risking our portfolios and how to manage ‘sequence of returns’ risk. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is a stock market crash good for long-term returns?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 24 Apr 2024 - 40min - 115 - Is The Bank of England Broken?
The Bank of England has been criticised for its failure to foresee high inflation. A damning new report takes aim at the central bank’s forecasting process and urges a major overhaul. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is 'quantitative tightening'?
Thanks to Freetrade for sponsoring this episode.
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 17 Apr 2024 - 39min - 114 - How To Invest a Lump Sum in 2024
Investing a lump sum is a big decision that comes with great responsibility. Should you be conservative with your newfound wealth? Should you pile into markets straight away or drip feed slowly over time? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What does FSCS protection cover?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 10 Apr 2024 - 37min - 113 - Are Investors Rational? Lessons From the Late Daniel Kahneman
Daniel Kahneman was the pioneer of behavioural economics and won a Nobel Prize for his work on cognitive biases. By explaining how a litany of psychological missteps skew our decisions, few people have had more influence on investing. We discuss how Kahneman improved our investing judgement and taught us to manage risk intelligently. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are stock analysts’ price targets worth anything?
Thanks to Freetrade for sponsoring this episode.
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 03 Apr 2024 - 41min - 112 - Bad Apple: The Trustbusters Target Big Tech
US regulators have swung for the fences, accusing Apple of running an illegal smartphone monopoly. But will the legal cases facing big tech firms hurt stock prices?
Thanks to Freetrade for sponsoring this episode.
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Capital at risk. ISA and SIPP eligibility, tax rules and T&Cs apply. Free share value varies on the amount topped up or transferred. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you invest. Tax treatment depends on personal circumstances and current rules may change.
At present, Freetrade only supports Uncrystallised Fund Pension Lump Sums (UFPLS) for customers who wish to withdraw funds from their SIPP after their 55th birthday. We strongly encourage you to seek financial advice before making any withdrawals from your SIPP.
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 27 Mar 2024 - 41min - 111 - Bubble Trouble: Are Investors Right to be Worried?
Stock markets have hit all-time highs in recent weeks, with bitcoin and gold joining the party. Inevitably, people ask, “Is this a bubble?!” And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s the difference between investing and speculation?
Thanks to Freetrade for sponsoring this episode.
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Capital at risk. ISA and SIPP eligibility, tax rules and T&Cs apply. Free share value varies on the amount topped up or transferred. Ends 5 April 2024.
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 20 Mar 2024 - 41min - 110 - Sustainable Investing: The End of ESG?
ESG funds lured investors with the promise of simultaneously saving the planet and achieving higher returns. But after years of inflows, investors are pulling their money. Is there a better approach to sustainable investment? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why are there multiple oil prices?
Thanks to Freetrade for sponsoring this episode.
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 13 Mar 2024 - 32min - 109 - 9 Things to Do Before the End of the Tax Year
With just one month until the end of the UK tax year, it’s time to review our family finances, make the most of our annual allowances and optimise our investments. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is 'bed and breakfasting’?
Thanks to Freetrade for sponsoring this episode.
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 06 Mar 2024 - 35min - 108 - The Rise and Rise of Nvidia: AI Breakthrough or Bubble?
Excitement about AI is powering a new bull market. Nvidia smashed earnings expectations, catapulting the company towards a two-trillion dollar valuation and lifting stocks globally.
Thanks to Freetrade for sponsoring this episode. Sign up atFreetrade.io/pensioncraftto get a free share worth between £10 and £100.
When you invest, your capital is at risk. The probability is weighted, so more expensive shares will be rarer. T&Cs apply.
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 28 Feb 2024 - 37min - 107 - UK Recession: Investing During an Economic Downturn
The UK and Japan slipped into recession at the end of 2023, and growth remains weak in Europe and China. While the US economy is booming, much of the world is struggling — does an economic downturn spell disaster for our investments? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s the difference between a recession and a depression?
Thanks to Freetrade for sponsoring this episode. Sign up atFreetrade.io/pensioncraftto get a free share worth between £10 and £100.
When you invest, your capital is at risk. The probability is weighted, so more expensive shares will be rarer. T&Cs apply.
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 21 Feb 2024 - 40min - 106 - Schrödinger's Flat: How Big a Problem is Commercial Real Estate?
Banks stocks have tumbled as losses mount on property loans, forcing them to set aside extra cash and slash dividends. Is the commercial real estate problem contained or is this just the tip of the iceberg? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is negative equity?
Thanks to Freetrade for sponsoring this episode. Sign up atFreetrade.io/freesharepensioncraftto get a free share worth between £10 and £100.
When you invest, your capital is at risk. The probability is weighted, so more expensive shares will be rarer. T&Cs apply.
Selected links
Kastle Back to Work Barometer Monetary Tightening, Commercial Real Estate Distress, and US Bank Fragility---
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 14 Feb 2024 - 34min - 105 - Are UK Stocks Really a Bargain?
UK stocks have lagged global markets in recent years. Unloved by investors and underweighted by institutions, is the UK really a bargain hiding in plain sight?
We discuss what’s holding British equities back and if they’re about to turn a corner.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: When a company goes private, are you forced to sell your shares?
Selected links
The atrophying UK stock market | FT Six charts that show how cheap UK equities are | Schroders FTSE 250 valuation and forecast for 2024---
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 07 Feb 2024 - 39min - 104 - The Best Free Investing Tools
There’s never been more information available to investors, but how do you avoid drowning in data? We’ve gathered our favourite investing tools from across the web to help. And what’s more, they’re free.
Get ready for asset valuation, fund selection, and portfolio modelling made easy.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Do backtests really work?
Tools discussed
Fund screening
JustETFVettaFIMorningstar fund screenerMorningstar ETF screenerMarket Data
FREDKoyfinFinVizYahoo FinanceGoogle FinanceDataromaValuation
YardeniResearch AffiliatesBarclays IndicesAswath DamodaranHistoric returns data
Bogleheads SIMBA spreadsheetRobert Shiller’s dataFama/French dataMSCI dataPortfolio backtests
PortfolioChartsPortfolio VisualizerFI CalcAffiliate links
New users of Koyfin get 15% off when signing up through this special link https://koyfin.com/?via=pensioncraftNew subscribers to Sharepad get the 2nd month free for monthly subscribers, or an additional free 13th month for annual subscribers: https://sharescope.co.uk/pensioncraftspNew users of Stockopedia get a special 25% discount on any annual plan: https://stk.pe/pensioncraftJoin CBonds private investors’ dedicated plans to receive between 30-50% off: https://bit.ly/47nekIMPensionCraft may earn a small commission on affiliate links.
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 31 Jan 2024 - 42min - 103 - Weird Portfolios and Wonderful Companies, with Value Stock Geek
The "Weird Portfolio" seeks to sidestep market crashes while still achieving attractive long-term returns. We talk to its creator, Value Stock Geek. We also dig into value investing, and how to find wonderful companies at wonderful prices.
Follow Value Stock Geek at securityanalysis.org
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 24 Jan 2024 - 50min - 102 - 10 Things They Don't Tell You About Stocks
To succeed at investing, you need to get the big decisions right. But the details matter too. We explore ten under-appreciated aspects of stock markets that, while seemingly trivial, can greatly affect your returns.
We look at everything from index construction to valuation measures to platform fees.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why do global index funds use market-cap weighting rather than GDP?
Selected links
Tech Company Dilution: Finding Ground Truth Stock Market vs. GDP Share, by Country (1900-2022) | Visual Capitalist---
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 17 Jan 2024 - 39min - 101 - What I learned from talking to 1,000 people about their investments
Since starting PensionCraft, I’ve spoken to more than a thousand people about their finances, helping with their investing goals, strategies, and fears.
We discuss common challenges investors face and how they chart the right course.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why is it so hard to talk about money?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 10 Jan 2024 - 40min - 100 - Demographic Shifts: Will Population Ageing Derail Stock Returns?
After a century of rapid population growth, the world is getting older.
But with fewer workers to subsidise healthcare and pensions, some speculate that shifting demographics spell trouble for the economy and our investments.
We debate whether the golden age of stock markets can survive the great Demographic Drag?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How did old people survive before pensions?
Selected links
Ageing Is the Real Population Bomb | IMF Boomer Retirement: Headwinds for U.S. Equity Markets? | San Francisco Fed---
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 03 Jan 2024 - 43min - 99 - Soft Landings Are Hard: How Has the US Economy Achieved the Impossible?
Despite all the predictions of doom, the American economy has achieved a macro miracle. Inflation has been tamed without the insidious side-effects of higher unemployment or a recession.
But how has the Fed pulled off a soft landing, and can we hope for the same in the UK?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why do economists always get it wrong?
Selected links
How did the US achieve a soft landing? - by Noah Smith---
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 27 Dec 2023 - 38min - 98 - Merry Market Quizmas: Can You Outsmart Ramin?
12 tricky questions to test anyone's knowledge about money, markets and investing in 2023. Can you triumph in our Christmas pub quiz?!
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the Santa Rally and is it real?
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 20 Dec 2023 - 30min - 97 - Charlie Munger's Wisdom: Profit, Polemics and Peanut Brittle
We celebrate the life of Charlie Munger and look to learn from his wisdom.
Warren Buffett's long-time right-hand man helped build Berkshire Hathaway and was a brilliant investor in his own right. But perhaps he will be best remembered for his willingness to share his wisdom, wit and one-liners.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the “Lollapalooza Effect”?
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 13 Dec 2023 - 32min - 96 - The Most Important Number in Investing
Markets are full of numbers. Big ones. Small ones. Nonsensical ones. But what is the most influential number in investing?
Is it the oil price? Or the interest rate set by the Fed? Or perhaps the strength of the dollar?
We debate seven different rates and prices in attempt to crown The World’s Most Important Number.
And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Why does the Fed set its policy rate as a target range?
Selected links
How the Fed Implements Monetary Policy with Its Tools — St Louis Fed How Does the Fed Influence Interest Rates Using Its New Tools? — St Louis Fed---
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 06 Dec 2023 - 39min - 95 - How to Fight Investing FOMO
The Fear of Missing Out tempts us all. Amid fast-moving markets and 24-hour news, FOMO can be an investor's worst enemy, derailing decision-making and undermining long-term goals. We discuss the strategies that help us stick to the plan. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: When is the right time to sell an investment?
Thanks to Lightyear for sponsoring this episode. Sign up atlightyear.app.link/pensioncraft or use the code PENSIONCRAFT to get a US fractional share worth $10.
Capital at risk. The provider of investment services is Lightyear Financial Ltd for the UK and Lightyear Europe AS for the EU. Terms apply: lightyear.com/terms. Seek qualified advice if necessary.
Yield is provided as of November 27th, 2023. Refer to the instrument’s Key Information Document available on the issuer’s website and Lightyear App before making investment decisions.
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 29 Nov 2023 - 39min - 94 - Treasury Doom Loop: The World's Most Dangerous Trade?
What do you get if you combine the world’s most important financial market, hedge funds, enormous leverage, and doom loop dynamics? Welcome to the Treasury ‘basis trade'.
We discuss the risks that lurk behind the Treasury market and why regulators are sounding the alarm.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the difference between duration and maturity?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 22 Nov 2023 - 29min - 93 - Passive Power: Do Index Funds Hurt the Economy?
Over decades, index funds have delivered superior returns and surged in popularity. But some claim the rise of passive investing has come at the cost of less competitive markets and inflated prices for consumers. We look at the evidence that common stock ownership might harm economic efficiency.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How high would bond yields have to go for you to sell your stocks?
Selected links
How Index Funds May Hurt the Economy - The Atlantic Anti-Competitive Effects of Common Ownership The Perils of Common Ownership: The Flooding Phenomenon Martin Schmalz: How passive funds prevent competition Index Investing and Common Ownership Theories | BlackRock---
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 15 Nov 2023 - 34min - 92 - The Magnificent Seven: What if Big Tech Starts to Shrink?
The “Magnificent Seven” stocks have reigned supreme this year, accounting for almost all of the S&P 500’s returns. But what if these titans of tech begin to stumble? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How long do companies last?
Thanks to IG for sponsoring this episode. Find out more about IG Smart Portfolios viahttps://upl.inc/h46sgc
IG is also offering new IG Smart Portfolio accounts 50% off the management fees until November 2024 when you open a new account via this link. That’s a management fee of just 0.25%, capped at £250 per year.
Note that this offer is only open to UK residents, over the age of 18 years old, who meet the eligibility criteria for an IG Smart Portfolio account. The offer only applies to new IG Smart Portfolio accounts opened via the above link on or before 30 November 2024 (and will not apply to existing IG Smart Portfolio accounts or to any other product or service offered by IG). This offer begins on 1 November 2023 and ends on 30 November 2024. Please contact IG at helpdesk.uk@ig.com for any assistance.
Please be aware that investing puts your capital at risk.
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 08 Nov 2023 - 45min - 91 - Are UK Investment Trusts A Bargain?
Ever feel like investing in something unusual? From unlisted shares to commercial property to infrastructure, Investment Trusts could be your answer. Performance has waned of late, and many are available at chunky discounts. Is now the time to buy in? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a “Long Term Asset Fund”?
Thanks to IG for sponsoring this episode. Find out more about IG Smart Portfolios viahttps://upl.inc/h46sgc
IG is also offering new IG Smart Portfolio accounts 50% off the management fees until November 2024 when you open a new account via this link. That’s a management fee of just 0.25%, capped at £250 per year.
Note that this offer is only open to UK residents, over the age of 18 years old, who meet the eligibility criteria for an IG Smart Portfolio account. The offer only applies to new IG Smart Portfolio accounts opened via the above link on or before 30 November 2024 (and will not apply to existing IG Smart Portfolio accounts or to any other product or service offered by IG). This offer begins on 1 November 2023 and ends on 30 November 2024. Please contact IG at helpdesk.uk@ig.com for any assistance.
Please be aware that investing puts your capital at risk.
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 01 Nov 2023 - 37min - 90 - Is Buy-to-Let Investing Dead?
Regulatory changes and rising interest rates have squeezed rental yields, leaving investors to wonder: Is the buy-to-let dream over? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does real estate outperform the stock market over the long-term?
Thanks to IG for sponsoring this episode. Find out more about IG Smart Portfolios viahttps://upl.inc/h46sgc
Selected links
Monthly Lettings Index (Hamptons) Mortgaged landlords face falling profits and refinancing hurdles (FT) Why Britain’s buy-to-let dream is dying (The Telegraph) The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015---
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 25 Oct 2023 - 30min - 89 - Are Government Bonds Really Risk-Free?
Government bonds are considered the world's safest asset, setting the "risk-free rate" against which all other investments are judged. But with rising national debts and dwindling credit ratings, are they really above question?
We discuss the implications for investors if government bonds are actually at risk of default.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why choose bonds over simply holding cash?
Selected links
Aswath Damodaran Twitter threadIn Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments! (Aswath Damodaran)The Bond Bear Market & Asset Allocation (A Wealth of Common Sense)---
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 18 Oct 2023 - 42min - 88 - The King of Passive Investing: No Longer at the Vanguard?
Is Vanguard still the king of passive investing?
Vanguard pioneered passive index funds, driving down fees and maximising returns for ordinary investors. But with the rise of innovative new brokers in the UK, has Vanguard lost its mojo?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is one fund really enough?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 11 Oct 2023 - 33min - 87 - Small caps are cheap. Why do they keep getting cheaper!?
Smaller companies look much better value than the giants of the S&P 500. Yet despite attractive prices, small cap indices continue to get cheaper, further widening the gap. Is bigger really better?
We look at what's holding small caps back and if they are about to gain momentum.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How big can one company grow?
Selected links
Large Cap vs Small Cap valuations (Yardeni) A Tale of Two Small-Cap Benchmarks: 10 Years Later | S&P Global Global ex-US Small Caps | Man Institute Visualising the Top 20 Most Valuable Companies of All Time---
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 04 Oct 2023 - 33min - 86 - Has the Bank of England Bottled It?
Last week, an unexpected cooling of inflation allowed the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged.
But with CPI still running more than three times above its target, has the Bank wimped out before the battle is won?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Instead of hiking interest rates to fight inflation, why doesn't the government simply urge people to spend less?
Selected links
Monetary Policy Summary and minutes (20 September 2023) - Bank of England No More Baubles: Post-Plague ConsumptionThe Regulation of Consumption | Encyclopedia.com---
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 27 Sep 2023 - 33min - 85 - Macro Mysteries: The Shocking Revision to UK GDP
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published revised GDP figures, upending the post-pandemic economic narrative.
It turns out that Britain’s economy recovered much quicker than previously thought and is no longer an international outlier. So how did the ONS find a load of economic output down the back of the sofa?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What could we measure instead of GDP?
Selected links
Impact of Blue Book 2023 changes on gross domestic product - Office for National StatisticsWhat is GDP and how do we measure it? | National Statistical China’s Official Economic Data: Is It Accurate? | St. Louis FedBeyond GDP: Three Other Ways to Measure Economic Health | St. Louis Fed---
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 20 Sep 2023 - 35min - 84 - Advice to My Younger Self: What I Wish I'd Known About Investing
You don’t get to invest with the benefit of hindsight. Mistakes are made, and you have to live with them. But it begs the question: if you could travel back in time, what investing advice would you give your 21-year-old self?
Would you champion index funds? Warn about risk? Or maybe suggest just getting started?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Am I rich?
Selected links
Household total wealth in Great Britain (ONS)Distribution of individual total wealth in Great Britain (ONS)---
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 06 Sep 2023 - 36min - 83 - BRICS: Bigger Is Better?
In the early 2000s, the BRICS nations were the pick of emerging markets: vast, rapidly growing economies that promised stellar long-term returns. But it hasn’t played out like that. At least, not yet.
Just last week, BRICS expanded its fold with six new members. But does the alliance actually make a difference?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What are frontier markets?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 30 Aug 2023 - 35min - 82 - Tales from the Trading Floor: The Truth About Investment Banks
During my 15 years in investment banking, I witnessed the brilliance of analysts, the buzz of the trading floor, and the chaos of the financial crisis. Today, we draw back the curtain on the world of high finance.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What are “systemically important banks”?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 23 Aug 2023 - 42min - 81 - Is Value Investing Dead?
For the best part of a century, buying cheap stocks was a reliable way to beat the market. But since the financial crisis, value investing has significantly underperformed. Even Warren Buffett — its most famous advocate — has lagged the market.
So is value investing dead? Or is it just sleeping?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is book value?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 16 Aug 2023 - 42min - 80 - The Upside of Down Earnings: Plummeting Profits and Soaring Stocks
Stock markets go up because companies grow their earnings over the long term. But this year, the S&P 500 is rallying despite stocks reporting their third straight quarter of falling profits. Has the market just not noticed?
We discuss whether an earnings recession should worry us and if it’s about to turn around.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are share buybacks equivalent to dividends?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 09 Aug 2023 - 37min - 79 - Is the China Growth Story Over?
For decades, China has been the engine of global growth, doubling its GDP every eight years. But now it faces weak demand, slowing productivity and an ageing population.
We debate if China can beat the “middle-income trap” and what it means for investors.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is China’s currency called the Yuan or the Renminbi?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 02 Aug 2023 - 42min - 78 - Structured Products: An Expensive Free Lunch?
What if you could invest in the stock market but not risk losing money? Yes, yes, your alarm bells should be ringing! But that's exactly what some new funds claim to offer.
We take a hard look at structured products and buffer ETFs and ask if they really make sense for investors.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is Monte Carlo Simulation?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 26 Jul 2023 - 37min - 77 - How To Stress Test Your Portfolio
How would your portfolio cope with a severe economic shock?
We’ve picked out five different scenarios to stress test our finances, including recessions, depressions, and sky-high inflation. But how should we think about tail-risks, and what we can do to prepare?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why haven’t wealth preservation funds preserved wealth this year?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 19 Jul 2023 - 51min - 76 - Politics vs Economics: What Politicians Misunderstand About Markets
Politicians are tasked with steering the economy and spreading prosperity. But, shockingly, not all of their claims about money and markets stack up. We discuss common misconceptions in politics and the political truisms that mislead us about investing.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is insider trading?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 12 Jul 2023 - 40min - 75 - How To Live Off Your Investments In Retirement
How can we maintain our quality of life in retirement without exhausting our funds?
We don’t know how long we will live, and the unpredictability of inflation and market crashes combine to make retirement planning one of the most intricate puzzles in investing.
We discuss how to manage the risks and what strategies can help us enjoy our golden years.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is it best to just live off the dividends?
Selected links
Does The 4% Rule Work Around The World? | RROld Age and the Decline in Financial LiteracyLives on the Line - tube map life expectancy---
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 05 Jul 2023 - 39min - 74 - Mid-Year Market Review: Time To Get Off The Bull?
We’re halfway through the year, and it’s time to take stock.
Central banks are approaching the end of the hiking cycle. The S&P 500 has entered a new bull market. And bonds are paying more than 5%. We discuss where the investing opportunities might lie and what risks lurk for the rest of 2023.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is the 60/40 portfolio dead?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 28 Jun 2023 - 40min - 73 - How High Will Interest Rates Go?
The UK has the highest inflation of any major economy, and markets expect the Bank of England to keep hiking interest rates in response.
But how high could rates go? Will mortgages become unaffordable?
We discuss the chances of a recession and whether house prices could crash.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why do central banks raise interest rates incrementally rather than in one big jump?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Tue, 20 Jun 2023 - 45min - 72 - The War on Crypto
The US Securities and Exchange Commission charged Binance and Coinbase with operating illegal securities exchanges. These are the two biggest names in crypto, accounting for more than half of global trading.
Does this mark the beginning of the end of the wild west era of crypto?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What exactly is a security?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 14 Jun 2023 - 40min - 71 - Markets Are Quiet. Too Quiet.
Markets are eerily calm. Stock volatility is low, and the Vix fear gauge has plunged to pre-pandemic levels. But is this the quiet before the storm?
With the US debt ceiling now resolved, some fear that replenishing the Treasury’s coffers could rattle the serenity of markets. Others fret about heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. So are markets too complacent?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How do minimum volatility funds work? And do they work?
Selected links
Certainly Uncertain - AQR Capital Management---
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 07 Jun 2023 - 37min - 70 - How Late Is Too Late To Get Started Investing?
When it comes to investing, time is your friend. If you get started early, compound returns do a lot of the heavy lifting for you!
But what if you didn’t put money into the market when you were young… what if you start investing later in life? We discuss ways to reach our goals and the compromises we might have to make.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are target-date retirement funds a good option?
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Wed, 31 May 2023 - 40min - 69 - Japanese Stocks Surge: Is It Time To Buy?
Japanese stocks have hit their highest level in 33 years. With markets closing in on record highs seen in the 1980s, are Japanese stocks finally about to escape the shadow of the bubble?
We dig into what’s behind the rally and if it has further to run.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a value trap?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 24 May 2023 - 34min - 68 - What Will Cause The Next Market Crash?
Investing is said to involve climbing a wall of worry… so where will the next crisis come from? A good place to look for clues is the Fed’s twice-yearly Financial Stability Report.
The latest report highlights risks at banks, money-market funds and commercial real estate, but will they really cause the next crash?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Surely low liquidity just means the price is too high?
Selected links
Financial Stability Report, May 2023---
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 17 May 2023 - 43min - 67 - Stock Market Rally: Fundamentals vs FOMO
The stock market has been on a tear, with the S&P 500 up more than 15% since its October lows.
But is the rally supported by the fundamentals? Or is it about to go into reverse?
Do company earnings and valuations justify the buoyant market? Or is it driven by hype around artificial intelligence?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Has TINA turned into TARA?
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 10 May 2023 - 35min - 66 - Has inflation finally peaked?
Inflation has started to subside but remains worryingly high across the world.
Will central banks need to raise rates higher still? Will inflation fall back to its 2% target without a recession? And will the Bank of England stop saying mad stuff?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Will high prices be with us forever? When inflation falls, prices don’t fall, do they?
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 03 May 2023 - 43min - 65 - Active Stock Picking Is Getting Harder
Some people claim that active managers can capitalise on market crashes to beat the benchmark. But do they really save us from being savaged by bears?
The analysts at S&P Dow Jones have been hard at work on their updated Index vs Active scorecard, and the numbers for 2022 are hot off the press.
The latest data reveals that UK active funds experienced their worst underperformance on record. We dig into the report to find out why.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does passive investing work for Emerging Markets?
Selected links
SPIVA Europe Year-End 2022 | S&P Dow Jones Indices SPIVA U.S. Year-End 2022 | S%P Dow Jones Indices---
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 19 Apr 2023 - 39min - 64 - Rain or Shine: Building an All Weather Portfolio
An all-weather portfolio aims to deliver steady growth while minimising risk. Pioneered by Ray Dalio, the strategy emphasises diversification across asset classes to keep on chugging, through rain or shine.
We discuss how to construct a portfolio for all seasons, and whether it lives up to its promise.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How does a tail-risk fund work?
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 12 Apr 2023 - 47min - 63 - Stunted Growth: Scottish Mortgage vs ARK
Growth stocks have been on a rollercoaster ride — soaring during the pandemic, only to plunge as interest rates climbed.
We consider two prime examples of the growth stock phenomenon: Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood's ARKK.
We dig into the funds' investment philosophies, faltering performance, and whether they are set for a resurgence.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the difference between a closed and open-ended fund?
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 05 Apr 2023 - 37min - 62 - Contagion: Chain Reactions and the CoCo Powder Keg
Contagion can be rapid, unpredictable and destabilising.
When a financial institution gets into trouble, it can cause a chain reaction, punishing investors, banks and even countries.
We discuss what factors cause these crises to spread and what we should do about it as investors.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a CoCo, and are they about to pop?
Selected links
The Unholy Trinity of Financial ContagionFinancial contagion in the era of globalised banking | OECD---
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 22 Mar 2023 - 38min - 61 - Silicon Valley Bank collapse: The Fallout and the Bailout
On Friday last week, Silicon Valley Bank—the 16th biggest bank in the United States—succumbed to a bank run and was declared insolvent. With markets gripped by fear, the US authorities stepped in on Sunday night to guarantee customer deposits and backstop the financial system.
But why did SVB collapse? What happens next? And what are the risks to the broader financial system?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the difference between a bail-out and a bail-in?
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Mon, 13 Mar 2023 - 48min - 60 - Dry Powder: Where to Park Your Cash
After more than a decade of near zero interest rates, it is now possible to earn some income from cash and short-term investments.
But where should you park your cash? There are many options from bank accounts to money market funds to bonds. Each come with their own benefits, risks and quirks.
But why we would even hold cash? And what makes 2023 a potentially lucrative environment for short-term investments?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a bank?
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 08 Mar 2023 - 46min - 59 - Raging Bullion: Is Gold a Good Investment?
Forged in the final moments of exploding neutron stars, gold has the best origin story of any asset.
To some, gold’s scarcity and history make it the only real form of money. To others, it's just a shiny rock.
It's claimed to be an inflation hedge, a trusted store of value, and the asset to own when all else fails. But does gold have a role to play in our portfolios?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why did we abandon the gold standard?
Selected links
Three Secret Ingredients of the Most Efficient Portfolios (Portfolio Charts)Golden Butterfly Portfolio vs Pinwheel Portfolio (PensionCraft - YouTube)---
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 01 Mar 2023 - 41min - 58 - Seven Ways to Slice the Stock Market
Does growth beat value? Does equal weighting outperform? Will the US always be the leading market?
Over the last 100 years, simply buying and holding the stock market would have made you rich. But that doesn’t stop people searching for ways to juice their returns.
This week we discuss seven ways to slice the stock market. From sectors to factors to weightings, we look at different ways to tilt your portfolio.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is Apple reallyan American company?
Selected links
Concentration within Sectors and Its Implications for Equal Weighting (S&P Dow Jones Indices) Factor Indices: A Simple Compendium (S&P Dow Jones Indices)---
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Disclaimer
This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 22 Feb 2023 - 47min - 57 - Love Contractually: How to Invest as a Couple
One in five couples identify money as their greatest relationship challenge. And when it comes to investing, 40% of couples disagree on how much risk to take.
So how should we grow wealth with our partners? And what strategies can help minimise disagreements along the way?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: On divorce, would you rather have the pension or the property?
Selected links
2021 Couples & Money Study (Fidelity)What's best on divorce: the pension or the property? (FT Advisor)---
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 15 Feb 2023 - 35min - 56 - How to Make Better Investing Decisions
To be better investors, we need to make better decisions.
With a few simple steps, we can structure our thinking and improve our investments.
We all struggle with bias and unstructured thinking. But there are systems we can use that nudge us into making higher-quality decisions.
We discuss framing decisions to align with investing goals, overcoming analysis paralysis, and the 37 Percent Rule.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why save for retirement?
Selected links
Rational Reminder podcast with Ralph Keeney Foraging and the Explore/Exploit Trade-Off (Nature) The 37% Rule (Big Think)---
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 08 Feb 2023 - 35min - 55 - Broken Records: Why are music catalogues so valuable?
Justin Bieber sold his back catalogue for $200m. This follows eye-watering sales for megastars like Bob Dylan, Bruce Springsteen and Tina Turner.
But why are music rights now the hottest asset on the planet?
We discuss how the music industry has turned itself around, the risks of owning song rights, and whether royalties deserve a place in our portfolio.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is securitization?
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 01 Feb 2023 - 44min - 54 - Smart Money: If you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy
Institutional investors, hedge funds, and professional managers dominate financial markets. Collectively, they make up 90% of trading and are sometimes called ‘smart money’.
But are they really that smart? Do they know something we don’t?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a hedge fund?
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 25 Jan 2023 - 40min - 53 - Defaulty Towers: How dangerous is the US Debt Ceiling?
The United States is again toying with defaulting on its national debt.
If the $31 trillion debt ceiling were breached without the limit being raised, it’s fair to say all hell would break loose.
But how likely is a default? And what would happen to markets if the US really jumped off the cliff?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Who is the national debt owed to anyway?
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Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 18 Jan 2023 - 44min - 52 - Surreal Estate: How far will house prices fall?
Global property is worth more than all the stocks and bonds in the world combined. It is a colossal asset class and the primary source of most people’s wealth.
After a remarkable run-up during the pandemic, house prices have now started to drop.
But how far could they fall? And what effect could it have on the economy?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is your house an investment?
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 11 Jan 2023 - 43min - 51 - Tesla: What goes up Musk come down
Tesla's stock price fell almost 70% in 2022 and was among the worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500.
To some, Tesla is the poster child for innovation, set to dominate the global automotive industry for years. But to others, it’s the most egregious example of hype and bravado to emerge from the era of free money.
Was last year just a bump in the road, or has Tesla hit the skids? And how has Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter and assorted antics hurt Tesla?
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is an activist shareholder?
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 04 Jan 2023 - 46min - 50 - Ready for a portfolio shakeup? What to consider before making a move
So you’ve decided it’s time to overhaul your investment portfolio. Out with the old assets and in with the new.
But hold on, before you press the sell button, there’s a lot to consider. Have you modelled your new portfolio? Have you found the cheapest funds? Have you thought about taxes?
Today we discuss how to plan a big portfolio move and stick with it when things get tough.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does it matter if I choose an ETF or an index fund?
Selected links
PortfolioCharts T-Rex calculator CompareFundPlatforms.com---
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 28 Dec 2022 - 36min - 49 - 2022 Merry Market Recap: Claus for concern
A festive round-up of the major investing stories of 2022. We consider the trends that moved the market and ask which will continue into the next year.
If you've ever wanted to hear ‘The Twelve Days of Christmas’ adapted for investors, today is your lucky day!
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Did the wise men construct a good portfolio for Jesus?
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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 21 Dec 2022 - 38min - 48 - Don't be fooled by 'Dreamwashing'
The investment world is full of attempts to milk us for fees and capital. But how is it done? Simply take a humdrum product, dress it up in exciting clothes, and sell the dream.
Is your active fund secretly tracking an index? Is your favourite meme stock hiding faltering performance with gimmicks? Who’s actually paying for that champagne lunch with your financial advisor?
Today, we coin a new term for this phenomenon: Dreamwashing.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Do you need a financial advisor?
Selected links
Closet indexing indicators and investor outcomes (ESMA) Champers and safaris: the secret diary of a St James’s Place adviser (The Times) SEC Charges Goldman Sachs Asset Management for Failing to Follow its Policies Involving ESG Investments---
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Disclaimer
This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 07 Dec 2022 - 41min - 47 - Tricks of the trade-off: How to balance priorities in investing
Investment decisions always involve trade-offs. Spend vs save. Risk vs return.
There's no way around them, no matter how many times you rejig your spreadsheet.
We look at five trade-offs every investor has to face:
Spend vs save Risk vs return Ethics vs diversification Reliability vs excitement Liquidity vs lifestyle choicesAnd in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is it better to overpay your mortgage or invest?
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Disclaimer
This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
Wed, 30 Nov 2022 - 40min
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