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Explore the captivating world of investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and his incredible co-hosts. Each week, we delve into engaging conversations with renowned investors, top economists, expert traders, and visionary thought leaders. Our discussions cover Trend Following, Global Macro, Geo-Politics, Commodities, Quant Investing, Crypto, Volatility, and much more. Unlock valuable insights from seasoned professionals, celebrating their triumphs and learning from their obstacles. Tune in every week to stay informed and inspired in the dynamic world of trend following, global macro and investing. For the latest episodes and blog posts, visit https://toptradersunplugged.com
- 1426 - SI324: Embracing Uncertainty using Adaptive Models ft. Richard Brennan
Today, we dive deep into the complex dynamics of global markets and the often overlooked risks that can accumulate during periods of apparent stability. Together with Richard Brennan, we discuss the rising concerns over declining fertility rates worldwide, highlighting how economic pressures, environmental challenges, and cultural shifts contribute to this seismic change. We draw parallels between these demographic trends and the unpredictability of financial markets, emphasizing the importance of adaptive strategies in navigating uncertainty. The conversation also touches on the limitations of traditional risk management models, advocating for a shift towards frameworks that prioritize resilience and adaptability. In this episode you will gain valuable insights into how both personal and economic landscapes can evolve and respond to changing conditions.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:37 - What has caught our attention recently?
07:20 - Is now the best time to allocate to alternatives?
12:14 - Industry performance update
17:58 - How we manage uncertainty in "chaotic systems"
25:55 - How to translate ensemble models to trend following
28:25 - The benefits of adding more trend following models
34:10 - It takes guts to be a greedy pig
37:04 - The hidden risks of financial markets
48:47 - Why Value at Risk (VaR) models makes more sense than having stops
56:35 - The inevitable outcome of cycles
01:06:40 -What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 30 Nov 2024 - 1h 09min - 1425 - GM75: Macro Mastery: The Hedgeye Approach ft. Keith McCullough
Keith McCullough, Founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an in-depth look into Keith’s distinctive approach to global macro analysis and tactical trading. The conversation explores Keith’s background as a hedge fund manager and his views on how markets have evolved, especially in relation to option flows. Keith breaks down his four-quadrant framework for macro analysis, explaining how pinpointing the economy’s position within these quadrants is as much an art as it is a science. His framework currently signals continued strength in the US dollar and US equities. A fundamental aspect of Keith’s approach is his respect for market signals and the need for these signals to confirm his macro views. He also shares valuable insights into the behavioural challenges of investing and emphasizes the importance of a disciplined, repeatable process to drive long-term success.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Keith on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:23 -Introduction to Keith McCullough
05:01 -From hedge fund to research
07:29 -Being a retail investor is an insult
09:56 -How McCullough has reacted to the rise of 0DTE options
13:48 -Have stocks become more macro driven?
15:54 -Where are we currently in the 4 quads?
19:22 -The challenge of lag in macro signals
21:26 -McCullough's framework for monitoring signals
24:25 -When can herding be a distraction?
26:54 -The current market from a quad perspective
31:09 -Reassessing the narrative of the deficits
35:50 -The outlook of the dollar
38:16 -The (un?)importance of valuations
41:07 -How the state of China influences McCulloughs model and framework
43:15 -Getting on the right side of the K
45:12 -The market from the 3 pots perspective
48:33 -Developing a respect for the markets
52:07 -McCullough's advice for preserving your wealth
56:01 -McCullough's philosophy to investing
58:33 -McCullough's perspective on systematic trend following
59:50 -Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 27 Nov 2024 - 1h 02min - 1424 - SI323: From Politics to Profits: How Regime Changes Affect Your Portfolio ft. Cem Karsan
Together with Cem Karsan we explore the current investment landscape, with a particular emphasis on the volatility and dispersion of market correlations as we approach the end of the year. We discuss how a compression of volatility at the index level can lead to increased idiosyncratic risk for individual stocks, creating opportunities for savvy investors. We explore the implications of regime shifts and how geopolitical factors, particularly related to the new U.S. administration, could influence market dynamics. The conversation also touches on the historical context of populism in politics and its potential impact on financial markets, suggesting that upcoming months may reveal significant volatility, particularly in fixed income and currency markets. With insights into sectors like gold and evolving trends in cryptocurrencies, we provide a comprehensive overview of what investors should keep an eye on as they navigate this complex environment.
Add to Show Notes
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - What has caught our attention recently?
05:50 - Industry performance update
07:58 - Q1, Adam: What are your thoughts about trading efficiency in VIX futures trading?
09:30 - How volatility compression evolves going into 2025
17:42 - How you take advantage of the volatility compression
26:14 - How Cem acurately forecasted this year's market rallys and his predictions for 2025
39:34 - When does Cem think the current populist period began?
48:22 - How inflation and interest rates have impacted the rise of populism
55:31 - How the gold market has evolved over the recent years
59:12 - Cem's outlook for Bitcoin and crypto currencies
01:03:59 - Is Donald Trump a threat to populism?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 23 Nov 2024 - 1h 13min - 1423 - OI11: Avoiding the Herd: A Different Path to Alpha ft. Jerome Callut
In today’s episode Moritz Seibert is joined by Jerome Callut, one of the founders of DCM Systematic, a quantitative hedge fund based in Geneva, Switzerland. DCM Systematic aims to produce returns that are uncorrelated to trend following CTAs by pursuing a different path to alpha. In fact, the team around Jerome is very much focused on avoiding getting into trend following trades. Instead, they emphasize strategies which anticipate the flows of other traders and use several behavior-based models to distinguish themselves from the SG CTA index and other industry benchmarks. Jerome and Moritz speak discuss generic trade examples and Jerome explains why pro-active and re-active risk management is very important for them.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Linkedin.
Follow Jerome on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:21 - Introduction to Jerome Callut
03:52 - Why they use non-trend following models
08:42 - What would happen if they added a trend following component to their model?
09:57 - The 3 categories of their trading system
11:11 - Category 1, Behavioural: Anticipating the flows and trades of other traders
15:35 - An example of how they handle flow
18:35 - Did Callut anticipate the unwind of the Japanese Yen carry trade?
21:51 - Exploiting the skid marks in the markets
23:53 - Category 2: Relative value and spread trading
29:37 - Collecting the roll down yield
31:12 - Is Callut also engaging in a short VIX positioning?
36:59 - Proactive and reactive management
38:33 - What could happen after Volmageddon?
40:42 - How they implement reactive management
41:37 - Category 3: Macro trades
46:37 - What role does automation play at DCM Systematic?
48:36 - How they implement AI and machine learning
53:38 - A work in progress
54:46 - Working with a moving target
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 20 Nov 2024 - 58min - 1422 - SI322: Market Narratives and the Unpredictable Alpha ft. Mark Rzepczynski
In this episode, Mark Rzepczynski joins Alan Dunne to explore narratives, rationality, and behavioral uncertainty, particularly in the context of trend following. They discuss recent market trends in the wake of the election, with a focus on bond market movements. Mark shares insights on the current stage of the risk cycle and whether we’re witnessing an excessive buildup of leverage in the financial system. The conversation also delves into two fascinating studies: one on the significance of having access to the news and accurate information in trading, and another on how equity analysts forecast earnings—both with implications for trend following strategies. Finally, they examine the narratives currently shaping markets and debate whether trend following can be considered a source of “unpredictable alpha.”
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:39 -What has been on our radar recently?
05:43 -Industry performance update
10:17 -New times for bonds
14:37 -The issue is always in the details
19:02 -What is driving markets at the moment?
22:36 -The perspective on treasuries is changing
26:34 -Trend followers are going crypto
29:22 -Does crypto make sense in trend following?
30:47 -Where are we in the risk cycle?
34:57 -How spikes in credit spreads have impacted leverage
38:16 -Does "perfect information" exist?
43:27 -A kind and a wicked environment
45:56 -Why Mark tries to avoid causal influence in economics
48:50 -Get your position size right or go bankrupt
50:31 -Trailing PE - the secret sauce of successful analysts?
55:18 -How narrative impacts the stock market
58:37 -Discussing recent market action through the narrative lens
01:01:26 - Trend following - an unpredictable alpha?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 16 Nov 2024 - 1h 07min - 1421 - IL32: Unpacking Inflation: What History Teaches Us About Today's Economy ft. Carola Binder
Today we share an engaging discussion with Carola Binder, who explores the intricate relationship between inflation and democracy in the United States. Binder argues that inflation has been a crucial part of economic debate since the nation’s founding, intertwined with the political landscape and the fate of democracy itself. She highlights the significant divergence in inflation expectations between Republicans and Democrats, particularly during the Biden presidency, where rising inflation expectations were predominantly driven by Republicans. The conversation delves into how historical perspectives on inflation have shifted, from concerns about devaluation and price stability to modern debates on monetary policy and the role of central banks. Binder also examines the implications of these dynamics for future inflation and the credibility of the Federal Reserve, providing insights that resonate with current economic challenges.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Carola on LinkedIn and read her book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:14 -Introduction to Carola Binder
03:20 -How did she approach her research?
07:55 -What does inflation historically mean?
11:19 -How the view on paper money has changed over time
16:25 -How the role of the Fed has evolved historically
22:35 -How gold has impacted the
24:17 -Controlling paper money - advancing democracy or centralizing power?
29:16 -Is 2% inflation the wrong target?
35:27 -Incorporating asset prices into central bank decision making
40:29 -How does Binder measure inflation expectations?
47:10 -Has inflation expectations risen since the Covid19 period?
49:57 -Does the high governmental debt imply a high inflation period ahead?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 13 Nov 2024 - 54min - 1420 - SI321: Post Election - Why Trends Matter More Than Ever ft. Alan Dunne
Together with Alan Dunne, we delve into the shifting landscape of systematic investing, highlighting the growing use of quant based strategies as well as AI and machine learning in portfolio management. The discussion also emphasizes the significant impact of concentration within the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs now predicting that this could lead to lower returns for traditional equity investments in the coming decade. We explore various economic themes, and note the challenges facing Europe compared to the optimism in the US markets. We also reflect on the recent elections and their implications for future economic policies. The conversation wraps up with insights on trend following strategies and how they can enhance portfolio diversification, particularly in a climate of rising yields and market volatility.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:05 - What has caught our attention recently?
03:17 - Dark times ahead for Europe?
06:26 - An analysis of the election
11:46 - Niels' thoughts on the election outcome
14:58 - Alan's thoughts on the election outcome
18:11 - A global macro perspective
28:00 - Has the election outcome any effect on the US deficits?
31:39 - Industry performance update
37:19 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it might make sense to replace bonds with outcome-defined or buffered ETFs. Any thoughts?
37:33 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it might make sense to replace bonds with outcome-defined or buffered ETFs. Any thoughts?
41:56 - Is Goldman Sachs changing their strategy?
48:38 - The role of trend following in an unpredictable market
53:45 - How systematic investing has become integral in portfolio construction
57:54 - Systematic - an overlooked word
59:21 - The mystery paper - a teaser
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Fri, 08 Nov 2024 - 1h 02min - 1419 - GM74: Navigating the Bond Market: What You Need to Know About Recent Trends ft. Stephen Miran
Stephen Miran, Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital and Fellow at the Manhattan Institute joins Alan Dunne in this episode to explore the bond market outlook and broader economic trends. They delve into an influential paper Steve co-authored with Nouriel Roubini on Activist Treasury Issuance, examining how Treasury actions may have countered some of the Fed's monetary tightening this year. Steve shares his insights on the economy's current state, his view that the Fed may have erred with its recent 50 basis point cut, and how the upcoming election could shape economic policy. While much focus has been on potential tariff impacts under a Trump administration, Steve highlights the possible benefits of supply-side measures. The conversation also covers the drivers behind the rise in bond yields since the Fed’s rate cut and the medium-term outlook for fiscal policy and bonds.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Stephen on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:25 -Introduction to Steve Miran
05:53 -Why did Miran write his paper on Activist Treasury Issuance?
10:24 -How Quantitative Easing and Exchange Traded Instruments work
15:26 -Treasury is not a market timer
17:39 -Getting lost in the Fed jargon
21:06 -What is driving the increasing yields?
24:38 -The refunding - Miran's expectations
27:26 -The state of the labour market
32:48 -How is Fed handling the economy at the moment?
34:21 -What is plausible range for the neutral rate?
37:07 -Is there a better way to run policy?
40:42 -The economic impact of the election outcome
45:54 -The challenges of regulatory policy
48:57 -Who will be the Treasury Secretary?
50:14 -Will a win for Trump mean bigger concerns for the deficits?
53:49 -The outlook for fixed income
56:07 -Geopolitical concerns
57:37 -Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 06 Nov 2024 - 1h 01min - 1418 - SI320: Bonds: The Voldemort of Asset Allocation ft. Andrew Beer
In this week’s episode, Andrew Beer joins Alan Dunne to dive into the evolution of hedge funds, mutual funds, and ETFs within the managed futures space. Andrew give his perspective on the architecture of the CTA industry from the perspective of asset raising and the role that a diverse investor base plays in shaping product offerings within the sector. The conversation explores how liquid alternative investments compare with traditional hedge funds, examining what recent performance trends reveal about each. They also discuss the influence of narrative in CTA selection and analyse the resurgence of portable alpha and the growing interest in return stacking strategies, inspired by a recent Bloomberg article.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:13 - What has caught our attention recently?
03:30 - Industry performance update
04:48 - Andrew's perspective on the last few months
11:11 - Insights from the Hedge Nordic Event
16:49 - Picking the right managers
19:57 - A Hunger Games mentality
26:53 - Different products for different market segments
33:31 - Are hedge funds better than mutual funds?
43:20 - What we know about the performance of ETFs vs mutual funds
46:33 - Will replicators become more prominent?
53:49 - Tell me what you love
57:24 - Bonds are like the Voldemort of asset allocation
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 02 Nov 2024 - 1h 04min - 1417 - GM73: Debt, Deficits, and the Road Ahead ft. Jason Furman
Jason Furman, Professor of Economics at Harvard and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Obama, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to share his thoughts on the current economic outlook. They explore the recent improvement in the inflation data, whether the Fed is justified in claiming victory in its inflation fight and the likely trajectory for inflation over the next year. On monetary policy, Jason expects further rate cuts from the Fed this year but is sceptical about how much additional easing we may see next year. That ‘s partially because he sees a higher neutral policy rate and partly because high fiscal deficits looks set to remain a feature of the next administration. Looking further ahead Jason offers his thoughts on the longer term growth outlook, the likelihood of an AI-led productivity boom, the pros and cons of active industrial policy and whether persistent fiscal deficits might eventually lead to a debt crisis.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Jason on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:10 - Introduction to Jason Furman
04:28 - The state of the economy
04:42 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?
06:01 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?
09:40 - The outlook for inflation
12:34 - A move in the right direction?
14:34 - Is the neutral rate a useful concept?
17:35 - The risk of being too sensitive to current data
21:05 - Is the shift towards transparency actually positive?
22:28 - Is the economy too complicated to forecast?
23:44 - Is the era of ultra low rates behind us?
26:46 - Furman's thoughts on the U.S deficits
28:29 - Has the Treasury managed the situation right?
31:34 - Will the political environment change due to larger acceptance to deficits?
34:46 - Will Powell and Trump be able to communicate?
36:32 - A win for Trump = the end of the Fed?
37:57 - Is the Fed in danger?
39:24 - Will the increasing debt levels cause quantitative easing?
40:54 - Productivity - reasons to be optimistic?
43:57 - Is AI a threat to employment?
45:25 - Furman's perspective on the industrial policy
49:33 - Are we going too far in the wrong direction?
51:06 - China's influence on the global economy
54:05 - The outlook of economical growth
55:38 - Is Europe in trouble?
57:12 - Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 30 Oct 2024 - 59min - 1416 - SI319: The Surprising Factors Behind CTA Performance: Is Less More? ft. Rob Carver
Today, we delve into the nuances of systematic investing with Rob Carver, focusing on the concept of replication in trend-following strategies. The discussion contrasts different approaches to replication, highlighting the potential pitfalls of return-based methods that attempt to mimic established indices. We emphasize that simply increasing the number of markets in a portfolio may not lead to better diversification, as it could ultimately expose investors to similar risk factors. We also explore the implications of a recent paper from Newfound Research, which uses random data to challenge traditional views on replication effectiveness. With insights on factors influencing CTA performance and the importance of understanding true diversification, this conversation offers valuable perspectives for both investors and practitioners in the systematic trading space.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:57 - What has caught our attention recently?
05:55 - Should trend followers lower their horizon?
09:26 - The AI CTA's are being tracked
10:37 - An economic Kayfabe
13:58 - Are interest rates approaching a Minsky moment?
18:44 - Industry performance update
20:33 - Q1, CryptoCaptainX3: How do you manage intraday adverse price movement risk while running a daily system?
25:43 - Q1.1 CryptoCaptainX3: How to manage overnight gap risk for futures instruments which trade only 6 hours a day?
26:13 - Q1.2 CryptoCaptainX3: Can you trade directional strategies but instead of using futures, use options. What are the pros and cons of this?
30:55 - Q2, Taylor: How do you think about position rebalancing, and the tradeoff between maintaining your desired risk allocation versus minimizing transaction cost?
34:22 - Q3, Richard: "Position Inertia", a method of avoiding frequent small trades by widening the target to 10% above and below the desired position. Have you considered varying this parameter depending on the estimated trading costs of the instrument?
36:01 - Q3.1 Richard: I currently use a rolling 10 year window of weekly returns to forecast correlations between futures instruments as you suggest in a blog post in 2020. Do you think there would be any value in applying an exponential smoothing to the correlation forecasts?
41:13 - Q4 Michael: How do you monitor that your systems are runnings normally intra-day, without checking the performance?
43:48 - Q5 Richard: How to dynamically allocate capital between different strategies in a live systematic system, given dozens of strategies, all with changing performance over time.
45:33 - Q6: Cloud: Are there any ways or optimizations to pick the right strategies and right instruments (profitable)?
47:38 - Is "less is more" applicable when it comes to market selection?
59:26 - The promises and pitfalls of replication strategies
01:13:30 -A mixed up narrative - do they truly replicate performance?
01:20:00 -What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Fri, 25 Oct 2024 - 1h 21min - 1415 - OI10: The Untold Side of the Turtle Trading Legacy ft. Bill Eckhardt & Rob Sorrentino
In his first podcast episode ever, Bill Eckhardt emphasizes that successful trading hinges more on risk control than on predicting market movements, a theme that resonates throughout his conversation with Moritz Siebert and Rob Sorrentino. The episode explores Eckhardt's journey from the renowned Turtle trading experiment to his current systematic trading strategies at Eckhardt Trading Company. The conversation provides insights into the evolution of trading strategies, the importance of maintaining emotional discipline, and the necessity of adapting to changing market conditions. The discussion also delves into the challenges of overfitting in trading models and the significant role that robust statistical methods play in managing risk. With anecdotes about the unique characteristics of traders and the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio, this episode offers a fascinating look into the mind of a trading legend and the principles that guide his enduring success.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Eckhardt Trading Company here.
Follow Moritz on Linkedin.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:30 - Introduction
03:59 - Eckhardt's relationship to Richard Dennis
06:34 - Can trading be taught?
08:50 - The story behind the trading rules
12:32 - What characterises Eckhardt Trading?
13:44 - How did their perception of risk change over the years?
22:01 - Why they focus on short term trading
27:25 - How they use volatility in their trading
32:49 - Do they utilize other methods than trend following?
34:05 - Why do they avoid trade summary statistics?
40:26 - How they control overfitting and underfitting
45:37 - How they use "the gauntlet" to test systems
49:12 - How many markets do they trade and why?
53:57 - Why they don't trade single stocks
56:28 - Their view on replication strategies
01:05:23 - Evaluating the success of systems
01:08:02 - What are the most important things to avoid when designing trend following systems?
01:08:47 - The future of trend following
01:11:11 -Criticise ideas, not people
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 23 Oct 2024 - 1h 15min - 1414 - SI318: How Trend Following Changes with Interest Rates ft. Katy Kaminski
Join Katy and I as we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following in the context of changing interest rates. We cover how trend-following strategies can be a valuable addition to investment portfolios, especially in high-rate environments where traditional fixed income may offer diminished diversification benefits. Katy shares insights from her latest paper, which explores the performance of trend-following strategies during various economic crises, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in turbulent markets. The conversation also touches on the recent Nobel Prize buzz surrounding MIT and its implications for innovation in finance, as well as review the latest quarterly insights from Quantica. As we navigate through market trends, you are encouraged to consider how a well-allocated trend-following strategy can enhance portfolio resilience amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:06 - What has caught our attention recently?
04:01 - What is going on with Danske Commodities?
06:29 - Energy traders are the new star athletes
07:47 - Industry performance update
09:55 - How has 2024 treated us so far?
13:58 - The implications of major regime transitions
18:33 - What made Katy write her paper, "Trend Following in a Defensive Rotation"?
24:22 - How has fixed income behaved over a long period of time?
29:02 - How does trend following portfolios react to the correlation between stocks and bonds?
33:27 - Katy's thoughts on the large dispersion between managers this year
36:44 - Can you use carry trading with the SG Trend Index?
39:48 - Timing trends is a fool's game
42:31 - Bill Eckhardt is coming on the podcast next week!
43:35 - The outlook for trend following
46:42 - How do trend following strategies perform in different interest rate environments
52:15 - Do investors agree with the findings of the Quantica paper?
55:31 - Are investors disappointed about the trend following performance?
01:00:40 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 19 Oct 2024 - 1h 02min - 1413 - GM72: China's Market Rebound: From Chaos to Opportunity ft. Louis-Vincent Gave
Alan Dunne welcomes back Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal in this episode to delve into the Chinese economic outlook and discuss the broader macro trends. Louis shares his thoughts on whether the Chinese economy and Chinese asset markets are truly at a turning point. They examine the crisis of confidence among Chinese consumers and assess whether recent stimulus measures can help. China’s active industrial policy and desire to grow its share of global manufacturing has been a key policy pillar and Louis examines how sustainable the policy is. The conversation also covers US policy, the prospects for a recession, and how the upcoming US election—particularly a potential Trump victory—could be highly significant for US- China relations and impact bond markets and the US dollar. Louis also gives his take on the structural challenges facing France and Europe, and whether we can expect a recovery in productivity.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Louis on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:27 -Introduction to Louis Gave
03:50 -Is the Chinese economy experiencing a turning point?
09:20 -Can China restore their foreign capital flow?
13:40 -The state of Chinese fiscal policy
19:12 -A flash point in Chinese overcapacity
24:14 -A commodity catalyst - reflation incoming?
28:46 -Will the U.S experience a recession soon?
36:48 -A fiscal crisis in the U.S?
40:32 -The economic challenges that France faces
43:09 -The state of the European economy
47:20 -Welfare states are falling apart
49:48 -The U.S. election - how will it impact investors?
54:00 -How Trump would handle the current global conflicts
56:59 -Trump interfering with the Fed
59:26 -A weak dollar = pressure on bonds?
01:00:05 - Still bullish on emerging markets?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 16 Oct 2024 - 1h 02min - 1412 - SI317: From Hurricanes to Hedge Strategies: The Hidden Common Factors ft. Richard Brennan
This episode dives deep into the intricacies of trend following strategies and their connection to complex adaptive systems. Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen explore how these systems respond to market signals and the importance of boundaries in shaping investor behavior. They discuss the challenges faced by trend followers in the current market environment, particularly in October, where many strategies have encountered difficulties. The conversation touches on significant topics such as risk management, diversification, and the role of outliers in financial markets, emphasizing that these seemingly anomalous events are actually a natural part of the market's fabric. With insights drawn from recent literature, including works by John Holland and Jeffrey West, the episode highlights the necessity of adapting to evolving market signals and the dynamic interplay between agents within these complex systems.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:40 - Our thoughts go to Florida
03:39 - A rough time for trend following
08:39 - Industry performance update
12:14 - Q1, Shahar: Regarding using long only trend following as an overlay to broad market ETFs
23:38 - Applying Warren Buffett's philosophy to trend following
32:33 - Setting limits in your trade following strategy
40:47 - What complex adaptive system can teach us about trend following
01:06:22 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 12 Oct 2024 - 1h 08min - 1411 - IL31: What Your Cashless Future Will Look Like ft. Richard Holden
Our guest on this episode is Richard Holden, economics professor at the University of New South Wales Sydney author of a new book: Money in the 21st Century: Cheap, Mobile and Digital. Richard explains why the prospect of a private digital currency run by a company like Amazon or Google is a real possibility and why that would represent an enormous transfer of power from democratic governments to a private company. He also talks about China’s digital currency, its vast user base in China and how it even has users in Australia. Richard believes the US should proactively head off the threat from these digital competitors by creating ‘fedcoin’ - a digital currency managed by the Federal Reserve. He believes it could be done with little disruption to consumers and could bring enormous benefits.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Richard on Twitter and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:04 - Introduction to Richard Holden
06:06 - A whole year without cash
08:08 - What are the benefits of cash?
12:40 - The implications of a cashless society
23:53 - A big hurdle
26:04 - Building a better mouse trap
28:08 - Dealing with the U.S. banking regulation
31:13 - The Fed Coin - How could it work?
38:11 -The dark side of the Fed Coin
41:36 - How the borrowing process works in banks
44:55 - How would the Fed control credits?
51:56 - Is Holden working with the Australian government?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 09 Oct 2024 - 58min - 1410 - SI316: Solving the "How Much" Trend Following Question ft. Nick Baltas
Today we tackle the most important questions arising from the evolving landscape of systematic investing, focusing on the changing dynamics of asset allocation in the current market environment. Nick Baltas and Niels discuss the implications of rising interest rates and inflation on traditional 60/40 portfolios, questioning whether this approach remains valid. We explore the potential benefits of incorporating trend-following strategies, especially in light of recent market volatility. The conversation includes insights on risk management and the importance of understanding correlation, particularly during downturns. With a blend of empirical analysis and practical advice, the episode touches on the key question of how much investors should allocate to trend-following strategies from a different perspective and encourages listeners to rethink their investment strategies and consider more adaptive approaches to asset allocation.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:28 -What has caught our attention recently?
07:37 -Industry performance update
09:02 -Reflecting on August and September
12:25 -The reversal of the short fixed income trade
17:31 -The death of short-term trend following?
21:32 -Finding the right trading speed
24:15 -Out-performing is a long game
27:47 -Its time to move direction
29:53 -Can CTA's forecast risk and returns?
33:45 -Evaluating models over a long time
39:24 -Baltas' thoughts on correlation forecasting
42:26 -Pairing risk parity and trend following
48:25 -A dangerous game
51:35 -How much should you allocate to trend following?
01:01:06 -Is the benchmark changing?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 05 Oct 2024 - 1h 07min - 1409 - ALO26: Managing a C$600 Billion State Pension Fund ft. Amy Flikerski
Amy Flikerski, Head of External Portfolio Management at CPP Investments - the C$600bn Canadian state pension fund - joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss allocating capital to emerging and established hedge funds. They delve into the evolution of the hedge fund industry from the perspective of an allocator and particularly how the growth of the large multi-manager multi-strats has impacted hedge fund allocating. Amy discusses the role of the External Manager Allocations in the context of CPP Investment’s overall portfolio and some of the key considerations from a top down and bottom up perspective when the portfolio is constructed. Amy also highlights how CPP Investments evaluates emerging managers, what makes a great hedge fund manager and also offers valuable advice for hedge fund managers when engaging with allocators.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Amy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:02 - Introduction to Amy Flikerski
08:02 - How they think about manager selection
09:28 - How do they categorize their strategies?
11:40 - How they assess their investment objective
13:07 - How they manage risk
14:29 - How the global macro environment affects them
15:41 - How they manage a billion dollar portfolio
17:11 - How the hedge fund industry have evolved
19:13 - Is there a place for multi-manager pods?
20:47 - A war for talent
22:34 - How they approach internal vs external management
26:34 - How is their team set up?
28:48 - What are they looking for when assessing managers?
30:54 - Making allocation to emerging managers
33:10 - What characterize their managers?
34:48 - Assessing the scalability of a strategy
37:29 - What makes a good allocator
39:23 - Advice for independant hedge funds
41:40 - What types of early stage managers do they look out for?
42:55 - How they approach their portfolio construction
45:25 - How they manage fund constraints
46:48 - What is their typical ticket size?
47:31 - Reaching the right level of transparency
49:46 - Characteristics of a succesful discretionary manager
51:14 - Managing drawdowns
52:56 - Their decision-making process
55:58 - How they approach commodities
57:33 - Advice for other managers
01:00:18 -Advice for people coming into the industry
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 02 Oct 2024 - 1h 03min - 1408 - SI315: Preparing for a Pivotal Time in Global Markets ft. Cem Karsan
In this week’s episode, Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to discuss the interplay between market flows and global macro developments as we enter a pivotal time of year for markets. They explore the potentially favourable setup for equities in the coming weeks, driven by flow dynamics and dealer positioning, while considering how recent policy moves in China could support the near-term bullish outlook. As the U.S. election approaches, Cem outlines how different outcomes could impact policy, the economy, and geopolitics—ultimately shaping the post-election market landscape. Despite recent U.S. inflation data showing lower prints, Karsan reaffirms his view of a structurally inflationary period ahead and shares key trades that could capitalize on this outlook in the current market environment.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:17 -Industry performance update
05:36 -Seasonality in markets
17:49 -Are China losing the ability to protect their assets?
21:44 -A dangerous path for Chinese assets
25:36 -A structural downtrend in inflation?
35:30 -Is the market looking through the rate cuts?
39:37 -Trump vs. Harris - how will it impact markets?
46:19 -A global conflict perspective
50:40 -How the election might impact commodities
52:06 -Migration policy and its effect on inflation
53:57 -How markets might trade right after the election is over
57:13 -Dangerous periods ahead?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 28 Sep 2024 - 1h 04min - 1407 - GM71: The Carry Risk Lurking in Your Portfolio ft. Kevin Coldiron
In this episode, I’m joined by Alan Dunne and Kevin Coldiron, a co-author of "The Rise of Carry", for an in-depth discussion on the recent unwinding of the Yen carry trade and a broader exploration of how carry trades are becoming more embedded in both our financial decisions and everyday lives. We revisit key insights Kevin took from his book, published in 2019, and explore where things have unfolded differently than anticipated. Kevin also breaks down how the S&P 500 might be central to the current carry regime and offers thoughts on how we could assess the risk of a ‘deflation shock’ or ‘carry crash.’ We round out the conversation by considering the future of carry and the role geopolitics might play in shaping its course.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Kevin on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:02 - How carry trading has evolved since "The Rise of Carry" was published
06:04 - How carry is related to the COVID-19 crisis
09:12 - Has anything surprised Kevin since he wrote the book?
17:02 - Was SVB a lucky escape?
23:15 - S&P 500 - the essence of a carry trade?
30:16 - Short-term moves are being exacerbated
32:30 - VIX inversions and structural changes
34:23 - What are the characteristics of a carry trade?
37:58 - A change in carry = a change in the monetary system?
45:09 - How could you make money from a carry unwind?
49:13 - Will we ever get away from the Fed Put?
53:47 - A new way of treating the S&P 500
56:33 - How the carry regime impacts the economy
59:15 - The impact of geopolitics on carry
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 25 Sep 2024 - 1h 05min - 1406 - SI314: Algo Anxiety... Can AI Resolve This? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Together with Mark Rzepczynski we dive deep into the outlook for trend following and discuss what may drive trends in the coming years. We analyze the role that the Fed plays in the rise of carry trading and we discuss how the so-called KuU framework can be used for in your strategy. We also discuss the use of AI when it comes to forecasting and building models and why systematic managers should be better at explaining what they do, how to use the 3 C’s to better understand markets, the pros and cons of buying an index and more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:03 - What has caught our attention recently?
04:18 - Industry performance update
09:58 - Who is responsible for the rise of carry?
16:30 - The markets are the real voting machine
18:34 - Reviewing Powell's speech
23:39 - The KuU framework
29:13 - The difference between AI generated and human-made forecasts
38:15 - The flaws of systematic managers
47:05 - Working with the 3 C's
57:13 - "What was it like to be in a bear market?"
01:01:42 -The pros and cons of buying an index
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 21 Sep 2024 - 1h 10min - 1405 - GM70: The State of the Commodity Super Cycle ft. Adam Rozencwajg
This week you are in for a real treat, as Adam Rozencwajg rejoins Cem Karsan and me for a deep dive into the latest developments in the Commodity markets. It's been 15 months since Adam last appeared on the show, and he's back to share his updated perspectives on the highly anticipated next Commodity Super Cycle. Adam even unveils a fascinating and little-known fact about what often coincides with the start of a Super Cycle. We also take a closer look at key markets like Gold, Copper, and the entire Energy Complex—topics at the heart of debates surrounding the US Dollar and the Green Transition. Packed with fresh insights and thought-provoking discussions, we hope you will enjoy this conversation.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Adam on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:14 - Catching up
05:00 - What has happened since we last spoke?
12:58 -The state of the metal sector
22:06 -Thoughts on positioning in commodity trading
28:41 - Getting the timing right
42:51 - It's all about volatility
44:38 - Playing the long game
47:46 -Are investors positioning wrong?
52:40 -A carry trade bubble
54:29 - Why are many investors bullish on copper?
01:01:12 - Why are copper prices going down?
01:05:13 - Demographics - a bizarre kind of beast
01:08:40 -An over-demand of assets in China?
01:12:54 - Thoughts on the recent decline in oil
01:15:44 - What is the current level of the U.S strategic reserve?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 18 Sep 2024 - 1h 19min - 1404 - SI313: The Paradox of High-Volatility Alternatives ft. Alan Dunne
In this episode, Alan Dunne and I explore Mario Draghi's latest vision for Europe and discuss an insightful interview with Kenneth Rogoff, titled "We Will See More Spikes in Inflation," which covers key macroeconomic issues. We also explore the recent Goldman Sachs reports, highlighted by the Financial Times, showing significant outflows from multi-strategy funds. Alan shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and why he believes we may witness more “flash crashes and extreme market moves” in the near future. Finally, we dig into two articles by Cliff Asness—"The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and "In Praise of High-Volatility Alternatives"—which challenge traditional thinking on market efficiency and make a compelling case for considering higher volatility versions of strategies like Trend Following over their low-volatility cousins.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:42 - What has caught our attention recently?
05:04 - Draghi's vision for Europe
08:09 - Keneth Rogoff's outlook for inflation
14:02 - Clients withdrawing money from multi-strat funds
19:58 - The big macro picture
27:33 - Is monetary policy still loose?
29:11 - Industry performance update (Finally!)
34:11 - The carry unwind
41:20 - Are people underestimating trend following?
44:51 - Are markets becoming less efficient?
48:30 - Why higher volatility funds may be good for your portfolio
56:52 - A historical perspective on volatility
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 14 Sep 2024 - 1h 05min - 1403 - IL30: How To Evaluate True Macro Risk? ft. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak
Our guest on this episode is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of a new book: Shocks, Crises and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk. He explains why it’s wrong to put focus on extreme “doom mongering” predictions - which often turn out to be false alarms. We discuss his intuitive framework for evaluating economic predictions and use it to evaluate the risk of inflation and debt in the coming years.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Philipp on LinkedIn and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:07 -Introduction to Philipp Carlsson
03:08 -What motivated Carlsson to write his book?
05:13 -A framework for assessing macro risk
09:00 -How do we react to doomsayings?
11:18 -Covid19 - the perfect example of a false alarm
15:15 -The new area of tightness
18:27 -It is all about labour cost
23:46 -The deflationary power of technology
26:46 -The outlook of the labour market
32:22 -Why inflation expectations will stay achored in a world of tightness
39:38 -What happens in a world with an upward bias to inflation?
43:26 -The difference between existential and tactical crises
46:56 -Carlsson's framework for assessing the risk of debt
52:04 -Carlsson's outlook for the economy going forward
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 11 Sep 2024 - 58min - 1402 - SI312: Should You Just Buy a CTA Index? ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver is back this week to discuss the importance of being able to detach yourself from the markets and taking “real” breaks from time to time and we also hear from Rob what it is like to let his systematic trading system run by itself whilst he enjoys a long summer holiday. We also discuss the underlying theory of macro momentum and how you can apply it to your own system, how he targets volatility in his portfolio and why Rob does not like using stop-losses to exit trades. We also touch on whether it’s a good idea for Trump to create a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, how ETFs really work and what they can bring to your portfolio, and whether or not buying one of the new CTA replication products is really the same as buying the underlying CTA index based on a recent paper from Transtrend.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:18 -What has caught our attention recently?
02:59 -How it feels to let your system run without you during holidays?
10:45 -Industry performance update
14:30 -Q1, Luis: What are your thoughts on Macro Momentum for retail traders?
21:00 -Q2, Roman: How to best target portfolio volatility
24:24 -Q3, Joshua: Which risk manament approach is best ATRs vs actual % of capital
31:22 -Would a Bitcoin strategic reserve be a good idea?
39:05 -A deep dive into ETFs
48:52 -An example of a worst case scenario ETF
53:13 -Can't we just buy a CTA index?
59:29 -The best way to think about indices
01:07:41 -Turning a backtest into an index
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK: Just Buy the Index!Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 07 Sep 2024 - 1h 14min - 1401 - GM69: The Global Economy from a Liquidity Perspective ft. Michael Howell
Michael Howell, Managing Director of Crossborder Capital and Author of the Capital Wars Substack, returns in this episode to speak with Alan Dunne about the liquidity cycle’s influence on global markets. Michael outlines how he sees rising liquidity growth providing a favourable backdrop for risky assets and that the conventional narrative that the Fed has been tightening liquidity via quantitative tightening is misplaced. They discuss how the requirement to refinance $70 trillion in debt every year, and the prospect of double digit growth in debt, will inevitably lead to monetary inflation with profound implications for assets like gold and equities. In contrast, although tactical duration issuance by the US Treasury has supported US Treasuries the longer term outlook is less favourable. The conversation also touches on global FX markets, the recent unwinding of the JPY carry trade, and Michael’s perspective on a possible tacit agreement to weaken the US dollar, which could have far-reaching consequences for liquidity and asset markets.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Michael on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:12 - Introduction to Michael Howell
03:15 - Howell's framework for looking at markets
06:32 - How Asian central banks impact U.S equities
09:17 - Do different types of liquidity have different effects?
12:17 - The last 15 years from a liquidity perspective
18:19 - Is liquidity the driver of the bond yield moves?
23:08 - Why has the quantitative tightening not been more disruptive?
32:44 - Is a debt crisis in sight?
39:48 - Howell's advice for allocating assets
42:45 - What has caused the reversal of the Yen?
48:02 - How to distinguish between capital flows and hedging activity
49:44 - Why are the G10 currencies so stable?
51:18 - A risk point on the radar
52:23 - The implications of the shift towards private credit financing
55:02 - A favorable environment for risk assets?
59:15 - Is Howell skeptical about the Chinese currency?
01:00:11 -The outlook of the liquidity cycle
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 04 Sep 2024 - 1h 02min - 1400 - SI311: BREAKING: New CTA Index being revealed ft. Andrew Beer
As August comes to an end, we discuss this month of extremes for the trend-following community, marked by significant dispersion in performance and unusual price activity across multiple asset classes as well as the economy in general. We address the strengths and limitations of replication strategies and Andrew shares insights into how he thinks about appropriate correlations levels between the benchmark and the replication strategy. We discuss the challenges of the due diligence process in replication strategies including team size, why you should start allocating to managed futures and finally Andrew reveals an exciting world premiere that he and his team has been part of.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:49 - What has been on our radar recently?
04:17 - Industry performance update
08:07 - Just another August?
12:35 - Q1, Martin: How to reduce drawdowns in the managed futures ETF space?
14:54 - Has replication become obsolete?
25:14 - Andrew's guidelines for correlation
31:56 - Staying in sync
35:47 - How to deal with the simplicity of replication strategies
43:42 - A world premiere!
51:05 - An index madness
53:05 - Beware of the shiny new things
56:02 - How the new index works
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sun, 01 Sep 2024 - 1h 00min - 1399 - GM68: Chief Strategist: “Most Scenerios Point to Recession” ft. Peter Berezin
Peter Berezin Chief Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research returns in this episode to discuss with Alan Dunne why he believes the US economy will soon enter recession and the S&P 500 will fall as low as 3750. Peter highlights the leading indicators in the housing market, labour market and in manufacturing that suggest to him that the economy is on a weakening trend and why he expects the unemployment rate to rise from here. They discuss current equity valuations, the Mag 7 and why investors may be overly optimistic on AI - Peter believes his base case of a fall in the S&P 500 to 3750 might be optimistic given the elevated level of profit margins. They also delve into what a Fed easing cycle will look like in the next downturn, Peter’s call for 3% 10 year yields in the US and the implications for fixed income, the US dollar and commodities.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Peter on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:19 -What has changed since our last conversation?
07:29 -Signs of weakness?
09:31 -The key indicators of weakness
12:15 -Are we actually becoming more wealthy?
15:26 -Assessing the savings rate
17:02 -Berezin's model for analyzing the economy
20:04 -Is the lag kicking in now?
22:00 -Challenges in the banking system
24:37 -Are we seeing a tail wind from fiscal support?
27:11 -Why Berezin thinks the stock market is 50% overvalued
29:26 -Are AI companies in trouble?
35:51 -The long term economic impacts of AI
37:46 -Boosts in inventories: A tipping point to the economy?
40:17 -Berezin's outlook for Fed policy
42:47 -Rate cuts = recession?
45:42 -The state and outlook of the U.S housing market
47:25 -An unsustainable budget outlook
50:44 -Will we see a strengthening of the dollar?
52:19 -An upside for the yen
53:53 -A collective cutting of rates
55:06 -Has globalization run its course?
56:40 -The structural outlook for commodities
58:51 -What should you focus on?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 28 Aug 2024 - 1h 01min - 1398 - SI310: The Illusion of Backtests and True Drivers of Price ft. Richard Brennan
Together with Richard Brennan we address the high level of volatility we have experienced this month and what airplane turbulence can teach us about periods of volatility. We also discuss why backtesting can’t predict future performance and what can be done to achieve achieve more realistic expectations of future risk and returns. We then dive into how investor behaviour drives price movement and how trend followers play a role in this, and why it may still make sense to include highly correlated assets in your trend following portfolio and more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:01 -What has been on our radar recently?
04:43 -What can trend followers learn from airplane turbulence?
11:48 -Industry performance update
18:24 -The limitations and pitfalls of relying solely on backtesting
33:42 -Advice for using in- and out-of-sample data
36:31 -How collective trader behaviour influences price movement
48:03 -How cocoa is the perfect example of investor behaviour and price movement
52:47 -Why highly correlated assets may still be beneficial to your portfolio
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 24 Aug 2024 - 1h 03min - 1397 - IL29: Technology: The Economic Dynamite ft. Mark Mills
In this episode we welcome back Mark Mills, author of The Cloud Revolution: How The Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020’s. Mark was a guest on the show one year ago and many of the predictions he made then have come true. We revisit his view that simultaneous improvements in information, materials and machine technologies are about to unleash an economic boom. He explains the surge in power consumption related to AI and why this should not serve as a brake on its adoption if we employ sensible energy policies. He also discusses why mining will continue to expand and how manufacturing across all industries is evolving to be more like a service.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Mark on Twitter and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:21 - Introduction to Mark Mills
09:05 - What causes revolutions?
12:27 - How Artificial Intelligence will impact the energy sector
22:02 - Should we be worried about the energy consumption of AI?
29:10 - Are renewables and recycling a viable solution?
37:37 - Putting Mills in the shoes of a mining director
44:13 - The future of battery technology
48:48 - Manufacturing as a service - the new ecommerce?
52:39 - How choke points in manufacturing will challenge the economy
56:16 - Is the economy stronger than we think?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 21 Aug 2024 - 1h 00min - 1396 - SI309: Bonds Behaving Badly ft. Katy Kaminski
Along with Katy Kaminski, we discuss how the current disruptions in the economy and markets cause a change in investors’ behaviour. We dive deep into the interconnection between inflation, bonds and volatility and we discuss how to build a portfolio that performs well in economic downturns. We also discuss the difference between a crisis versus a correction and the evolution when it comes to "model speed" within the CTA industry, the importance of sticking to the process in times of uncertainty and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:47 -What has been on our radar recently?
02:15 -Have investors internalized the new Divergent economies and policies?
05:37 -Are investors mistaking convergence for divergence and vice versa?
08:57 -Industry performance update
17:19 -Connecting the dots
23:35 -Bonds - Why are they Behaving Badly?
27:59 -Conditional return distribution - what and why?
30:04 -Alternative markets and the 60/40 struggle
35:29 -The role of crisis alpha and a discussion on speed
42:42 -Thoughts on carry in the CTA industry
47:29 -Did the VIX really hit 65?
55:34 -Sticking to the process
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 17 Aug 2024 - 58min - 1395 - ALO25: Master Your Hedge Fund Allocation ft. John Jackson
Join John Jackson, Global Head of Hedge Fund Research at Mercer, and Alan Dunne in this enlightening episode as they dive into the world of hedge fund selection! Discover how a leading institutional consultant selects hedge funds and builds robust portfolios. John shares his insights on why starting with manager selection is key to the portfolio construction process and how he integrates top-down considerations into the mix. The conversation delves into the roles different strategies play in a portfolio, how return expectations are set, and which strategies might thrive in a high-rate, volatile macro environment. John also takes us through Mercer’s rigorous process for researching and selecting new managers, what they look for in a manager, and potential red flags to watch out for. Plus, he sheds light on the importance of emerging managers, the AUM needed for a successful launch, and why he’s passionate about discovering these managers early on.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow John on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:37 -Introduction to John Jackson
05:40 -A changed environment for hedge funds?
08:42 -Best strategies for a high rates environment
11:50 -Are clients stuck in the past?
13:40 -A framework for building hedge fund allocations
18:13 -More art than science
19:15 -Define your objectives clearly
20:51 -A multi-strat dominance - pros and cons
25:14 -Getting comfort in your hedge fund strategies
28:32 -How to incorporate diversifying strategies in your portfolio
30:48 -How Jackson approaches return expectations
33:13 -Typical number of managers
34:00 -The role of hedge funds
35:44 -Their process of selecting managers
38:56 -What makes an opportunity compelling to them?
43:28 -How they trade in the systematic space
45:10 -Quant managers - are they any different?
47:08 -AI and machine learning in the quant space
49:25 -How important is transparency?
50:54 -Their process of deselecting and changing their manager roster
54:07 -Identifying talents in the manager space
56:18 -How much capital is needed to launch a macro fund?
57:52 -The pros and cons of committees
01:00:21 -Getting through the committee
01:02:12 -Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 14 Aug 2024 - 1h 04min - 1394 - SI308: Major Market Moves - What Now, Trend Followers? ft. Nick Baltas
Following an eventful week with major market rotations, I'm joined by Nick Baltas to discuss the impact of this weeks turbulence on trend followers. We discuss how trend following strategies had already started to adapt to the market rotations in July and what the consequence of leaving the short fixed income trade behind meant for overall performance in August. We also discuss how the market rotations has changed investors’ perception of trend following speed and why there is no “one size fits all” when investing. Lastly, we discuss how risk management has evolved, how it impacts the trend following industry and if we can draw any parallels to previous market "events".
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:45 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:49 - Industry performance update
05:37 - An eventful week
11:22 - Putting the market rotations into context
18:58 - How have trend following strategies started to change recently?
26:40 - How trend following performs according to data
29:03 - How Baltas view the difference between dynamic and static position sizing?
34:07 - Has the perception of speed shifted after this week?
45:07 - How does this period compare to previous periods with market shocks?
50:17 - Zero day options - part of the problem?
54:58 - The evolution of risk management
01:02:10 -A recap of this week's headlines
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 10 Aug 2024 - 1h 05min - 1393 - GM67: Successful Investing in a Disrupted World ft. Aswath Damodaran
Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at NYU Stern and a leading expert on valuation and corporate finance joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a fascinating and thought-provoking discussion on current markets and investing in general. They explore why Aswath believes we have witnessed the death of old-school value investing and how structural shifts in the economy have fundamentally altered the investing landscape. The discussion delves into the valuation of Nvidia and the Mag 7, questioning whether the hype around AI is justified. Aswath outlines his approach for long-term valuation, explains how he estimates the equity risk premium, and discusses what the current equity risk premium suggests for long-term equity market returns. They also cover the importance of bond yields for valuation, the shortcomings of P/E as a valuation measure, and whether assets without cash flows, like gold and crypto, can be valued. The episode wraps up with Aswath’s advice for becoming a better investor and preparing for an AI-driven future.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Aswath on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:18 -Introduction to Aswath Damodaran
03:30 -Nvidia - bullish or bearish?
04:47 -How AI will impact the economy
10:48 -How to make better valuations in AI and technology stocks
14:36 -How to distinguish AI stocks from each other
17:58 -A sticky market
22:40 -How should you act to the AI boom as an investor?
31:07 -Are value investor becoming obsolete?
35:49 -What is the equity risk premium?
40:28 -How much equity risk premium is enough?
45:08 -Dealing with macro shocks and timing the markets
50:01 -Inflation and its impact on stocks
51:51 -Don't rely on the P/E ratio alone
53:08 -The link between GDP and earnings
54:31 -The importance of investing globally
57:35 -Can assets with no cash flows be valued?
58:27 -Managing the risk
01:01:56 - Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 07 Aug 2024 - 1h 05min - 1392 - SI307: The Unpinning of Volatility & How to Prepare for What is Coming ft. Cem Karsan
Together with Cem Karsan, we discuss how the volatility space is experiencing major dispersion at the moment and how you can prepare your portfolio for the unpinning of volatility which we are experiencing. We also address how the groundbreaking events that have happened in the U.S. election recently might change the outcome of the election and what impact this will have on the economy. We discuss the core principles and mechanisms behind market moves and how Fed plays a pivotal role in this. And lastly, Cem explains how flows in financial systems and markets work and what you can do as an investor to stay well prepared.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:44 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:38 - A surprise question for Cem
06:26 - Industry performance update
08:59 - How are volatility strategies doing in general in 2024?
14:59 - Suggestions for which volatility indices to use
16:35 - Q1, Zach: How would someone use a systematic trading system to purchase and sell put options?
20:12 - Q2, Rick: With all the talk about USD and rates, does anyone have a view on how a possible unwind of the USD/Yen carry trade could impact markets? DO we know the size of this?
24:19 - Trump 2.0 - better, faster, stronger?
34:30 - An unfathomable situation
38:38 - The mechanisms behind market moves
47:14 - More conflict incoming?
50:37 - What causes stress in the financial systems?
01:01:50 - The wobble is happening
01:05:51 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 03 Aug 2024 - 1h 07min - 1391 - IL28: The Transformation of the 21st Century Economy ft. Ernest Scheyder
In this episode we speak to Ernest Scheyder, an award-winning journalist, senior correspondent for Reuters and author of the acclaimed new book: The War Below: Lithium, Copper and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives. We can’t have green energy without mining. But there is no way around the fact that mining is loud, dangerous and disruptive. Our conversation explores this tension that sits at the center of the energy transition. We also discuss new technologies for mineral extraction and recycling that have the potential to resolve some of these conflicts if they can be commercialized.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Ernest on Twitter and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 -Introduction to Ernest Scheyder
03:11 -Why are lithium and copper so important?
05:44 -The outlook of the U.S lithium production
09:12 -Who is Ioneer and the environmental impact of lithium production
17:26 -What is Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) and why is it important?
23:17 -Supply and demand in lithium
25:02 -The challenges of recycling batteries
31:07 -Is a fully circular economy even possible?
34:14 -The negative consequences of copper mining
39:19 -A part of the people
41:53 -The complexities of tribal relations in the U.S.
43:46 -Is outsourcing copper mining morally irresponsible?
47:25 -The challenges of attracting labour in the mining industry
52:00 -How did Scheyder approach the writing of his book?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 31 Jul 2024 - 57min - 1390 - SI306: If Trend Following was an Olympic Sport... ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Together with Mark Rzepczynski we discuss how the activist treasury issurance of more bills than coupons have provided more quantitative easing and why we are seeing a decline in concern for inflation and rising interest rates. Mark also shares key insights to why building a system is more important than building models and what you can use a backtest for, and we discuss whether investors should focus mostly on stocks or bonds in their portfolio. We also discuss why you should include trend following in your portfolio and ways to assess macro economic risk, how AI will impact the trend following industry, how the hot hand fallacy applies to investing and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:54 - If trend following was an Olympic sport, which one would it be?
03:17 - What has been on our radar recently?
06:20 - Bills = money?
09:59 - A declining concern for rising rates and inflation?
13:38 - Industry performance update
16:01 - Q1, Philippe: When to remove an asset as a trend follower??
26:10 - "I've never seen a bad backtest"
31:56 - Simplicity vs. complexity
35:26 - Stocks or bonds - what should you prefer?
40:18 - Why you should have trend following in your portfolio
48:50 - How to assess true macro economic risk
53:33 - Machine learning and AI in systematic trading
01:00:22 -The hot hand fallacy
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 27 Jul 2024 - 1h 06min - 1389 - GM66: Trump Trade and the 3 Legged Stool ft. MacroAlf & Cem Karsan
Alfonso Peccatiello joins us for a compelling discussion on today’s challenging macroeconomic environment. Alongside my co-host Cem Karsan, we explore the impacts of massive debts, weak public sector balance sheets, and rising wealth inequality. We delve into how polarized electorates and global economic fragmentation are reshaping policies, discussing the economic implications of new tariffs, a weaker Dollar, and the prospects for Gold and Bitcoin. Alfonso shares his insights on rising interest rates and inflation, emphasizing the crucial role of central bank policies in shaping market dynamics. We also touch upon the potential impacts of geopolitical tensions and speculate on the effects of possible future scenarios, like a Trump presidency, on the global economy.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Alfonso on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:45 - The impact of rising rates and inflation on the global economy
10:29 - Inflation expectations and the Trump trade
18:38 - What kind of inflation are we dealing with now?
27:10 - What caused a change in MacroAlf's view on inflation
34:16 - It's all about getting the distribution right
46:26 - Alf's perspective on the U.S. Election
51:20 - What will a win for Trump mean for the global economy?
55:38 - Could the U.S. lose their AAA rating?
01:02:31 - A "Golden" idea
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 24 Jul 2024 - 1h 06min - 1388 - SI305: Building A Hedge Fund Allocation ft. Alan Dunne
Together with Alan Dunne, we take the temperature of the current state of affairs in the U.S. election and how the election impacts the economy and markets. Alan also shares his advice for allocator looking to start a new trend following fund and we discuss how fees are currently the big differentiator in the CTA space, with one manager increasing it's performance fee to 30%. We also discuss the "Dual Mandate of Managed Futures Strategies" and how how different frequencies of skewness affect strategies and delves into the use of "delay" by pure trend managers to smooth returns. We continue our conversation on the topic of Building a Hedge Fund Allocation, diving into the considerations and strategies involved in creating a robust hedge fund portfolio and more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:02 -What has been on our radar recently?
05:38 -How we utilize AI in our own work
09:14 -Price on fossil hit an all time high
09:54 -The FOMO narrative in investing
11:52 -Alan's thoughts on the state of affairs in the U.S. Election
19:50 -An unsustainable path
24:37 -Industry performance update
27:58 -Q1, Ciaran: What are allocators looking for in a new trend following fund?
34:25 -Fees - the big differentiator
38:46 -Key takeaway from the paper "Skew Spectrum"
48:20 -Paper on building a hedge fund allocation
01:00:34 -Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK SI305: Building a Hedge Fund AllocationCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Fri, 19 Jul 2024 - 1h 02min - 1387 - GM65: Why Fed Will Raise Rates Next Year ft. Adam Posen
In this episode, Alan Dunne welcomes former central banker and current President of the Peterson Institute, Adam Posen, to discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy. Posen explains why he believes markets are mistaken in expecting rate cuts next year and identifies the key factors driving stronger economic growth. They explore global central banking and monetary policy, examining the successes and challenges of inflation targeting, the models used by central banks, and the most important variables to monitor for policy decisions. Posen also discusses why inflation targeting may become more challenging in the coming years and argues that less forward guidance from policymakers could be beneficial. They discuss the outlook for fiscal policy for the next administration and Posen explains that while a fiscal crisis is not his base case, he foresees significant upside risks to bond yields in the coming years.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Adam on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:10 - Introduction to Adam Posen
05:45 - Was it all about luck?
07:40 - Was the Covid19 period handled the wrong way economically?
12:06 - Are we going into more challenging times for inflation targeting?
13:56 - The political pressure on central banks
16:48 - The challenges of inflation targeting
23:47 - A micro-managing nightmare?
29:50 - What are the most important factors for policy makers?
35:16 - The lags of monetary policy
39:47 - How the structure of the economy impacts the monetary transmission mechanism
48:15 - Posen's view on the economy
51:07 - Are central banks inflating the debt away?
53:49 - A Fiscal crisis incoming?
01:00:10 -Artificial Intelligence - a game changer?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 17 Jul 2024 - 1h 02min - 1386 - SI304: Taking the Trend Following Temperature with Man AHL ft. Graham Robertson
Today, we are joined by our special guest, Graham Robertson who is Partner and Head of Client Portfolio Management at Man AHL, for a wide-ranging conversation about trend following. We discuss how trend following has stood out in recent years and why April 2024 was especially noteworthy, and how Graham views the current interest from investors around the world. We also address to what extent trend following should play a role in your portfolio and what type of environment tends to influence overall performance for the industry based on Principal Component Analysis. Lastly, we discuss how AI might impact the trend following industry, and whether Trend Followers have started saying goodbye to the short fixed income traded, that lasted for more than 2 years.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Graham on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:56 - Introduction to Graham Robertson
03:40 - How Graham came across trend following
04:56 - Graham's observations in 2024 so far
08:03 - Is China becoming an easier market to trade?
09:01 - How to deal with uncomfortable markets
11:17 - Why April was an interesting month for trend followers
14:54 - A discussion on trend following performance
20:45 - Industry performance update
22:03 - How Man AHL assess the interest in trend following and CTA strategies
26:37 - Rating the climate for interest in trend following
31:46 - Which regions or countries are most interested in trend following?
34:16 - Why ESG means different things to different strategies
38:05 - How much should investors allocate to trend following?
41:05 - How to change people's minds about trend following
43:59 - Changing the narrative in the trend following industry
47:28 - Man AHL's general approach to research
55:15 - Graham's perspective on AI in the trend following industry
01:00:20 - A new approach to 60/40
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 13 Jul 2024 - 1h 07min - 1385 - OI09: The Key to Trend Following Success ft. Cole Wilcox
In this episode, Moritz Seibert and Cole Wilcox from Longboard Asset Management speak about systematic trend following strategies applied to single stocks, including the many advantages compared to long only buy and hold, but also some of the challenges and technical details related to portfolio construction. Cole is the founder and CEO of Longboard Asset Management, an Arizona-based alternatives fund management firm. He explains why participating in some of the big outlier price moves in mid and small cap stocks is as important as cutting out the many stock which don’t perform, in other words, avoiding the failures while having a systematic process that allows for taking part in the upside are both important.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Cole on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:07 - Introduction to Cole Wilcox and Longboard Asset Management
08:27 - Diving deep into the strategy
10:45 - What drives the alpha of their strategy?
15:41 - Understanding your investor base
18:07 - Understanding their correlation
19:31 - Thoughts on including international stocks
24:15 - Do they fully fund their portfolio?
27:52 - How they approach dividends
29:14 - Do they loan out stocks?
30:34 - Did they ever trade single stock futures in the Bond Chicago Exchange?
32:36 - How many names do they have in their portfolio on the long side
33:12 - Dilution vs. concentration
37:15 - The impact of volatility drag
39:43 - Improving the experience of investing
42:01 - A compliment or full portfolio strategy?
45:57 - What are the most important lessons they have learned?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 10 Jul 2024 - 49min - 1384 - SI303: The Unstoppable Volpocalypse ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne
Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne in this week’s episode to discuss global macro developments and key events to monitor in the coming months. They explore the shifting market microstructure and how volatility supply from structured products is impacting dispersion, correlation, and the value of breadth as a market indicator. Cem outlines his outlook on volatility trading for the coming months, highlighting key dates in the options calendar that may become focal points as the year progresses. They also examine the wealth effect resulting from rising stock prices, discussing how this reflexive process influences market dynamics and what it means for identifying potential turning points for equities. Finally, they delve into the elections in the UK, France, and the US, consider the likelihood of Biden being replaced and discuss to what the extent the market is pricing in a Trump victory.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:59 -Industry performance update
06:30 -The outlook for volatility supply
09:01 -Braking the volatility cascade
11:47 -Is the Yen in trouble?
13:51 -Is bread becoming unreliable?
19:57 -When does it all end?
24:38 -What should you monitor as an investor?
27:46 -When will we begin to see increased risk?
33:09 -What will drive the increasing volatility?
35:10 -The election from a volatility perspective
42:46 -Volatility from a market pricing perspective
45:36 -How will a win for Trump impact the economy?
47:56 -Looking outside of the U.S.
53:06 -Similar volatility supply dynamics in Europe?
54:52 -Good times ahead for gold?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 06 Jul 2024 - 1h 01min - 1383 - GM64: Why the Economy is Vulnerable to Recession ft. Claudia Sahm
Alan Dunne is joined by Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and creator of the Sahm Rule, to discuss the current macroeconomic outlook. They explore the state of the US labour market and what the Sahm Rule reveals about the economy's current condition. They discuss the conflicting signals in today’s macroeconomic data and hear why Claudia believes the economy is more vulnerable to recession now than in recent years. They also discuss the decline in inflation over the past year, evaluating whether it was influenced by monetary policy and its implications for future policy decisions. Finally, they examine the shift towards more active fiscal and industrial policies and consider whether debt sustainability will become a key issue for the next US administration.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Claudia on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 -Introduction to Claudia Sahm
04:26 -The background behind the Sahm Rule
08:34 -Does the current data call for a recession?
12:37 -Putting the data together
18:16 -Is the unemployment rate the most reliable indicator for recession?
23:51 -What can we rely on as investors?
29:48 -What is unusual about this inflation cycle?
35:32 -The balance of the dual mandate
40:42 -The state of physical policy
45:32 -The growth picture from a long term perspective
50:32 -The positive sides of inflation
53:17 -Book recommendations and advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 03 Jul 2024 - 57min - 1382 - SI302: The Negative Crisis Beta and CTA's Hidden Market Timing Skills ft. Nick Baltas
This week, Alan Dunne chats with Nick Baltas about CTAs' negative crisis beta and their hidden market timing skills. Nick and Alan tackle the question of how to build an effective trend-following program as part of a larger multi-asset portfolio, in relation to the markets traded and speed of system and tie in insights from a recent Quantica paper. They weigh the benefits of unconstrained trend-following programs versus those with capped equity beta. Plus, they discuss the ideal level of volatility for running an investment program and take a closer look at a Resolve Asset Management paper on the best ways to construct carry strategies.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:23 -What has caught our attention recently?
03:00 -Industry performance update
05:32 -Reversions incoming?
07:06 -Q1: Regarding how to choose instruments in your trend following algorithm
14:20 -Getting the speed right
17:37 -Q2: At what point does volatility put an investor in a danger zone?
24:32 -Discussing the paper "Negative Crisis Beta" from Quantica
38:16 -Capping the beta
45:17 -The hidden market timing of CTAs
50:23 -The benefits of adding carry to your portfolio
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 29 Jun 2024 - 1h 07min - 1381 - GM63: War Without Rules ft. General Robert Spalding
Join us as Cem Karsan and I explore China's plan for global dominance with retired General Robert Spalding, author of "War Without Rules." General Spalding discusses the rising tensions between China and the West, pointing out warning signs from the past two decades and mistakes made by the West. We delve into China's long-term strategy for world domination and its impact on investment strategies. We also question if TikTok is being used by China as a weapon against the West. Additionally, we examine the decline of democracy, the rise of autocracy, and the challenges democracies face in competing with autocracies. Finally, General Spalding highlights the importance of protecting digital infrastructure from cyber threats and decentralizing it for resilient communication, a mission he passionately pursues with his company, SEMPRE.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Robert on Twitter and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:49 -Introduction to General Robert Spalding
03:38 -What did Spalding learn from flying B-2 airplanes?
08:44 -Who is Spalding's criticism aimed towards?
10:33 -A visionary perspective
15:37 -TikTok - The ultimate weapon?
21:37 - Is the West as "bad" as China?
30:49 -How do the West compete on a level playing field against autocracy?
42:28 -Spalding's view on the conflict between China and Taiwan
54:29 -How hot can a cold war get?
58:31 -Is there no way back?
01:00:51 -The vulnerability of infrastructure and data
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 26 Jun 2024 - 1h 17min - 1380 - SI301: The AI Hype within Investing...a Step Too Far? ft. Rob Carver
Today, Rob Carver shares his insights on buying put options as a tail risk strategy and how trend following can also play a part in tail risk protection...but perhaps not they way some investors may think. Rob also shares his advice for using carry in your strategies when trading rolling futures contracts. We then pivot to hear Rob's thoughts on why the U.S. election appears to be the perfect storm, and we discuss what the outcome of the election will mean for the economy. Rob also explain why he is sceptical about the AI hype and the liability issues that AI poses. Lastly, we discuss the challenges of setting the right level of fees as a manager and how investors may complain about the higher level of fees the multi-billion $ managers charge...yet still chose to invest with them.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:26 -A quick talk on football (soccer)
02:09 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:26 - An update on Rob's portfolio.?
09:37 - Industry performance update
12:07 - Q1, Steve: What are Rob's advice for systematic buying of put options as a tail risk strategy?
26:51 - Q2, Luis: Regarding how to use carry in your strategies when you roll from a contract to the next one
33:39 -A discussion on elections
38:36 -The U.S election - a perfect storm?
44:41 - Should you be cautious about the AI hype?
57:04 - Finding the right level of fees that investors should pay?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 22 Jun 2024 - 1h 06min - 1379 - OI08: Trend Following...Austrian Style ft. Michael Neubauer & Joseph Waldstein from SMN
In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Michael Neubauer and Joseph Waldstein from SMN Investment Services, a Vienna, Austria-based systematic trend following manager with a 28-year track record. Michael and Joseph explain how they initially got interested in trend following and how their systems have evolved over the years. Moreover, the discuss why trading many different markets – as many as possible – is important for their approach, and that the inclusion of synthetic markets such as spreads and baskets as well as less liquid exotic/alternative markets improves SMN’s risk-adjusted returns. Last but not least, Michael and Joseph explain why they trade VIX futures and why this is a market they trade with a different methodology given the mean-reversion pattern of variance, and how they are monitoring this market – and potentially exiting open positions - on an hourly basis.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Joseph on LinkedIn.
Follow Michael on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:18 - Introduction to Michael Neubauer and Joseph Waldstein
05:52 - How did they learn about trend following?
14:18 - The perfect match?
15:12 - What drove their decision to discretionary overlays?
16:52 - What is causing dispersion in the trend following space?
19:32 - The dangers of overoptimization
23:00 - What are their definition of risk?
27:20 -Are more markets better?
33:21 - Their research process
37:18 - What is their smallest and least liquid market they trade?
39:01 - How they use synthetic markets in their trading
41:20 - Their considerations about cash equities
43:30 - Why are they trading the VIX index?
46:36 - What is the outlook for trend following?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 19 Jun 2024 - 51min - 1378 - SI300: Finding the Optimal Trend Following Rules ft. Richard Brennan
Together with Richard Brennan, we discuss the optimal way of doing trend following and how to find the optimal set of rules to use in different market regimes, how to examine market states through Markov models and how artificial intelligence will impact trend following and make short-term trading incredibly competitive. Lastly, we ask ChatGPT what the optimal way of doing trend following is.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 -What has been on our radar recently?
04:03 -Industry performance update
07:50 -Q1, Dennis: Given the nature of lengthy hold periods, do you recommend trading cash CFD's accounting for the overnight costs?
11:40 -Q2, Ramki: Using ATR for position sizing when backtesting a trend following system
14:47 - Optimal rules to use in different kinds of market regimes
18:46 - How to use Markov models and mathematical algorithms to optimize trend following strategies
41:17 - Is trend following threatened by AI?
51:39 - "ChatGPT, what is the optimal way of doing trend following?"
Resources discussed in this Episode:
SI300: Optimal Trend Following Rules PaperCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 15 Jun 2024 - 57min - 1377 - IL27: Unlocking the Secrets of Great Communication ft. Charles Duhigg
In this episode, we speak with Charles Duhigg, a renowned author and writer for The New Yorker, who won the 2013 Pulitzer Prize for exploratory journalism. His book, "The Power of Habit," spent three years on the New York Times bestseller list. Charles joins us to discuss his new book, "Supercommunicators: How to Unlock the Secret Language of Connection." Our conversation centers around the importance of effective communication in personal and professional relationships, including in the investment industry. Charles explains how to become a "supercommunicator" and outlines the four rules for meaningful conversations. He highlights the types of questions top communicators ask and what we can say or do to make our conversations more meaningful and productive. Finally, we explore the unique rules of communication in the digital age and the distinction between communication and manipulation.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Charles on LinkedIn and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:05 -Introduction to Charles Duhigg
06:30 -Every conversation is a negotiation
09:21 -It takes two to tango?
11:09 -The importance of listening
13:42 -The magic of understanding each other
15:05 -What is stopping us from having deep connections?
18:40 -How to ask the right questions
23:18 -Advice for having meaningful conversations
28:02 -The business value of deep connections
31:27 -The importance of non-verbal communication
36:28 -How to match the mood of other people
38:48 -The role of identities in communication
42:23 -What does Duhigg means with "identity threat"?
47:48 -How does it apply online?
51:11 -Communication vs. manipulation
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 12 Jun 2024 - 56min - 1376 - SI299: Sharing the Trend Following Pie ft. Andrew Beer
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer where we discuss the outlook for inflation and why Andrew believes there is an existential crisis in macro economic modelling. We then touch on the question "if trend followers might be the only true short sellers left" as well as how to deal with the lag effect when using replication models. We round off our conversation discussing why Andrew believes we should all “share the trend following pie” and why the managed futures space is stalling when it comes to AuM, why he believes that money is “packed anxiety” for most people, why the ETF space needs an injection of positivity and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:44 - What has caught our attention recently?
03:04 - Is what we thought was "normal" Real Yields actually not normal?
09:30 - Are the trend followers the only true short sellers left?
19:09 - How do CTAs react to the lower prices?
21:35 - Industry performance update
23:00 - Q1, Joe: How do you deal with the lag effect in replication models?
32:36 - Let's share the trend following pie
40:38 - The disadvantages of the institutional world
43:56 - Why is the managed futures space not growing?
49:49 - A crazy story from Andrew
56:26 - Are low-cost offers killing the industry?
01:02:39 - The ETF costs dont add up?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 08 Jun 2024 - 1h 09min - 1375 - GM62: How to Build a Future-Proof Portfolio ft. Bob Elliott
Today, Cem and I welcome Bob Elliott, the founder of Unlimited Funds and former right-hand man to Ray Dalio at Bridgewater. Bob shares what he learned from his decade at Bridgewater and discusses the unique income-led economic expansion currently happening in the US, contrasting it with typical credit-driven expansions. He also explains why most investors are wrongly positioned in today's macro landscape and how they can create a balanced and diversified portfolio. Bob emphasizes the importance of optimizing portfolio allocation to protect against market volatility and unpredictability, and he discusses how to gain access to alternative investments, along with the challenges these assets present. Finally, Cem provides an update on his outlook for 2024.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Bob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:42 - What Bob learnt from working close to Ray Dalio?
04:24 - The secret to Bridgewaters success
07:17 - Elliott's perspective on the current global macro framework
10:46 - The outlook for interest rates
15:31 - Is inflation here to stay?
20:48 - The outlook for asset allocation
25:48 - The role of demographics
30:04 - A collective memory
32:53 - Advice for achieving a balanced and diversified portfolio
36:37 - Elliott's approach to diversification
42:22 - How to get access to alternative markets
46:24 - What drove Elliott intro replication?
51:45 - Why the majority of investors are invested in the wrong way
57:15 - The state of the global exchange rate markets
01:00:44 -Are US stocks trading as Cem exptected into the June Opex?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 05 Jun 2024 - 1h 04min - 1374 - SI298: The Trend Following ETF Revolution ft. Katy Kaminski
Together with Katy Kaminski, we dive deep into the ETF space to better understand how you can utilize a new wave of ETFs as an investor. Katy describes the transition many Trend Following managers have gone through to get into the ETF space and how you can integrate the Trend Following ETFs in your own portfolio. We discuss if or how due diligence in the ETF space may be different from traditional due diligence and the different paths into the ETF space managers have chosen. We also discuss fee considerations when building ETF models and how to choose the right replicator, and if we are likely to have too many firms replicating the same few CTA indices. We end our conversation with some thoughts on how AI will impact the trend following industry and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07- What has been on our radar recently?
02:56- Industry performance update
07:41- Our thoughts on CTA offerings in the ETF space
13:40- Is giving people more liquidity a good thing?
17:32- Why include ETFs in your portfolio?
21:43- Use cases for ETFs
25:00- How does the due diligence process work in the ETF space?
28:58- Are we becoming a Relative Return industry?
32:01- Is the increasing trader anonymity a problem?
34:33- The different paths into the ETF space
40:57- How ETFs compare to classic managed futures products
43:30- Should you consider fees when building ETF models?
47:32- How to choose the right replicator
51:06- How AI might affect the trend following industry
56:55- A red card to AI?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 01 Jun 2024 - 59min - 1373 - GM61: The New Politics: Neoliberal Decline and Authoritarian Rise ft. Gary Gerstle
Join Alan Dunne in conversation with Gary Gerstle, Professor of American History at the University of Cambridge and author of "The Rise and Fall of The Neoliberal Order", as they delve into the shifting landscape of the global political order. From the decline of the New Deal Order to the ramifications of the Global Financial Crisis, Gary traces the trajectory of the Neoliberal Order and its impact on contemporary society. Exploring the nuances of Bidenomics, they analyse the sustainability of current fiscal and industrial policies amidst rising inequality and geopolitical tensions. Gary shares insights on the potential rise of authoritarianism worldwide, the implications of protectionism, and the prospect of increased antitrust activism in the US. Finally, they turn their attention to the upcoming US presidential elections, examining the contenders and the pivotal factors that could shape the outcome.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on X
Follow Gary on X
Episode TimeStamps:
02:26 - Introduction to Garry Gerstle
05:50 - Understanding political order and neoliberalism
12:04 - How important are the economic principles in dismantling the neoliberal order?
20:06 - What will drive the new political order?
29:01 - How the West's approach to China has changed
36:19 - Do banks have too much power?
43:34 - Is the U.S deficit a constraint going forward?
47:24 - The 4 freedoms of neoliberalism
53:34 - The challenges of the technological evolution
01:02:16 -Thoughts on how the election might end up
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 29 May 2024 - 1h 07min - 1372 - Si297: Trend Following as a Return Enhancement Overlay ft. Alan Dunne
In today’s episode, Alan Dunne helps us uncover the latest news and data within the global macro landscape. We also discuss the state of the quant macro space, how it compares to trend following and what allocators should consider when comparing the two. Then we break down how family offices are looking to allocate assets at the moment before we turn our attention to a potential new narrative within the trend following world - namely, how trend following can be used as an return enhancement overlay, instead of "crisis alpha". We also dive deep into fees and returns in the multi-strategy space and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:01 -What has been on our radar recently?
06:58 -Is OpenAI falling apart?
09:19 -U.K. and European Parliament elections - should investors care?
11:52 -What is neoliberalism?
12:54 -Unpacking the current global macro landscape
19:07 -Are central banks defeating their own purpose?
22:42 -Industry performance update
25:39 -What is going on with quant macro?
32:00 -Trend follower or quant macro fund - what is hardest to analyze?
34:39 -How are family offices looking to allocate assets currently?
37:43 -Any allocation to whiskey?
39:31 -Trend following: Return Enhancement Overlay or Crisis Alpha?
47:13 -Advice for using trend following as an enhancement overlay
49:46 -How multi-strategy funds achieve smooth return streams
01:00:09 -Multi-strat managers - contact us!
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 25 May 2024 - 1h 02min - 1371 - IL26: How New Technologies Will Shape the Economy ft. Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels
In this episode we speak to Koen De Leus and Philippe Gijsels. Koen is Chief Economist at BNP Paribas Fortis and Philippe is Chief Strategist. They are co-authors of The New World Economy in 5 Trends: Investing in Times of Superinflation, Hyperinnovation and Climate Transition. We talk about how technologies like AI, 3D printing will drive economic growth and why they are likely to create more jobs than they destroy. Another important trend from a market perspective is the potential for a doubling of the gold price and possibility of a new ‘super cycle’ for industrial metals.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Koen on LinkedIn and read his book.
Follow Philippe on LinkedIn and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:16 -Introduction to Koen De Leus and Philippe Gijsels
06:22 -Why haven't we seen higher productivity?
12:11 -What is the chance that productivity could increase?
17:36 -When can we expect productivity to increase?
19:51 -Will AI "steal" our jobs?
24:43 -How you can navigate in the AI trends as an investor
32:17 -Is it even possible for "normal" investors to benefit from AI?
35:26 -Is the energy transition a good investment?
40:51 -A new commodity or metal super cycle?
45:10 -Exploiting the commodity trends
48:12 -Is natural gas a good transition fuel?
52:01 -Why is Philippe so positive on gold?
56:48 -What are their inflation expectations?
01:02:19 - Challenging years ahead?
01:08:00 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 22 May 2024 - 1h 10min - 1370 - SI296: Is Trend Following Becoming Too Complicated? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski is back to discuss the latest investor sentiment survey from Societe Generale’s Capital Consulting team, to find out what strategies investors are losing interest in and which are seeing more demand right now. We also dig into how the performance of economies greatly depends on the type of government policies and how going from multilateralism to bilateralism impacts trend following, the complexity of being a systematic manager and the phalacy of consensus. Mark also explains why we need to look beyond price and consider the drivers of price, what the VUCA framework is and how/why to use it, whether trend following is becoming too complicated and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:39 -What has been on our radar recently?
06:59 -Which Alternative Strategies do Investors Want...latest survey?
12:17 -Discussing the data
18:30 -Industry performance update
21:26 -Is the rise of the Chinese stock market legit?
25:08 -From multilateralism to bilateralism
29:42 -The difference between the ideal vs. reality manager
36:31 -The fallacy of consensus
40:23 -Using economic data as a trend follower
43:14 -Is price truth?
47:38 -VUCA - what, why and how?
54:50 -Applying VUCA to trend following
57:46 -Is trend following becoming too complicated?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 18 May 2024 - 1h 03min - 1369 - ALO24: Managing Money Through Structural Shifts ft. Richard Urwin
Richard Urwin, Chair of the Investment Committee at Saranac Partners, the $6bn UK wealth manager, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how he is approaching asset allocation at the current juncture. They discuss how long term valuations and asset class return forecast help inform Saranac’s strategic asset allocation and delve into some of the structural forces that may influence the economic outlook and asset class returns in the coming decade. While shifting demographics, climate change, high deficits and rising debt levels all have the potential to contribute to higher inflation and higher bond yields, Richard is cautious about being too pessimistic about the outlook and sees good opportunity in credit and alternative assets and strategies. They also discuss how Saranac think about selecting and sizing hedge funds in their portfolios and how this has changed in a higher interest rate environment.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Richard on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:45 - Introduction to Richard Urwin
06:31 - A noticeable shift?
08:49 - What is Saranac's investment philosophy?
13:06 - Dealing with structural shifts as an asset allocator
18:07 - How confident are they in forecasts?
24:24 - Balancing competing forces
30:08 - How Saranac builds balanced portfolios
33:55 - Do they consider supply shocks in their portfolios?
40:00 - The dangers of pessimism
44:27 - Their approach to alternative assets and strategies
48:38 - Their perspective on high-risk managers
51:15 - Their manager selection process
55:06 - How does the current environment dictate investing?
58:13 - About Urwin's PhD on option pricing
01:02:40 -Advice for other allocators
01:05:16 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 15 May 2024 - 1h 06min - 1368 - SI295: Trend Followers - The Unwanted Party Guests? ft. Nick Baltas
Together with Nick Baltas, we dive into trading signal direction and discuss if signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction, based on CFM’s paper on Agnostic Risk Parity. Baltas also explains why allocating risk to where opportunity lies is prudent as well as why trend following is a powerful tool to achieve a broad risk allocation. Based on Baltas’ recent paper in the Financial Times, we also discuss equity momentum and why trend followers might be the “unwanted guests at the party”.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:52 - What has been on our radar recently?
12:36 - Industry performance update - how is May so far?
15:45 - New Ultimate Guide out now...How to get your Free copy!
16:38 - Q1, Peter: Should signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction?
27:39 - Q1.1 Peter: Is it reasonable to aim for broadly equal risk allocations across different asset classes?
35:19 - Q1.2 Peter: If you were an institutional investor with an ultra-long time horizon, a stomach for short-term volatility and a mandate to deliver the highest possible CAGR over the long-term, how much of your portfolio would you allocate to systematic trend-following?
39:22 -Q1.3 Peter: Do you agree with Anthony Todd's description of trend alpha coming in bursts?
46:54 -Discussing Nick's paper in the Financial Times
57:48 -What kind of party guest would a trend follower be?
59:09 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 11 May 2024 - 1h 01min - 1367 - ALO23: Behind the Scenes of a High Net Worth Investor ft. Tad Fallows
In this episode, Tad Fallows, Founder of Long Angle, a community for high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth investors, joins Alan Dunne for a fascinating chat on how they approach asset allocation and find niche investment opportunities. Tad speaks about the typical risk appetite of his co-investors, highlighting how age and generation of wealth shape the risk profile of members. He talks about investments in private equity, alternative assets, and their investment strategies in the shifting macro landscape. Tad highlights why hedge funds may seem less appealing to them but why he has a lot of interest in trend following. He also speaks to some of the more esoteric investments his group makes such as whiskey aging, and talks about their crypto exposure. Finally, he highlights the importance of intuition and high conviction when making investment deals.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Tad on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:34 - Introduction to Tad Fallows
12:38 - The risk appetite of Long Angle investors
15:45 - What defines the Long Angle community?
19:52 - Why not the traditional route?
23:14 - How are they allocated?
27:20 - How they incorporate private equity in their portfolio
35:02 - How much of their returns are resilient to changes in global macro?
40:18 - Micro or macro?
45:08 - Taking advantage of inefficiencies in markets
47:04 - Why are they staying away from hedge funds?
49:32 - Why are they using trend following?
52:24 - Their thoughts on crypto
56:29 - Generating ideas and finding priorities
01:01:29 -Advice for other investors
01:07:05 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 08 May 2024 - 1h 08min - 1366 - SI294: Lowering the Cost of being Long Commodities ft. Hari Krishnan
Hari Krishnan returns to the show for a deep dive into commodities. He helps us understand why investing in commodities is not as easy as other markets and why he believes that we are entering a commodity super cycle. We also discuss how to overcome the challenges of holding and storing commodities and why cheap commodities are not always so cheap once you start rolling your futures position. We talk about where his new “virtual storage” concept can add value to a trend following system and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Hari on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - What is catching our attention recently?
06:53 -A recap of April
10:14 - Hari's thoughts on trend following
14:30 - The interesting commodities
18:10 -A commodity super cycle inbound?
20:36 -BUT...Commodity Bulls used the same arguments in 2022
22:51 - How commodity storage functions
29:57 - Balancing divergence and convergence
32:26 - How virtual commodity storage works
35:55 - The role of trend following in a regime-based participation
42:47 - How consistent is the virtual warehousing approach?
47:06 - Manual or systematized?
48:59 - Overcoming the challenges of commodities
53:44 - What markets can the method be applied to?
54:16 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 04 May 2024 - 55min - 1365 - GM60: Preparing Your Portfolio for the Second Half of 2024 ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann
In this episode, Cem and I welcome Christian Mueller Glissman back on the show, and together, we tackle the intricacies of capital allocation in 2024, particularly amid the pivotal elections we expect to see. We discuss the pros and cons of starting with a 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy. Cem and Christian highlight Europe's resilience to inflation and its potential energy cost advantages, making it an attractive investment destination. We also analyze how election cycles, especially during populist periods like now, influence the economy and markets. Christian shares insights on using structured products to manage volatility, and both he and Cem strongly advocate for strategies like trend following in current market conditions. Finally, we discuss what an optimal portfolio allocation should include in 2024.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Christian on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:39 - Christian's current big picture macro framework
07:22 - The role of volatility in inflation
12:20 - Should the 60/40 portfolio always be your starting point?
21:02 - What are the risks of the 60/40 portfolio not being the starting point?
27:37 - A scary situation in Europe?
32:16 - How election periods affect the economy
40:22 - A wall of worry
43:30 - Christian's thoughts on using structured products to reduce volatility
48:03 - A push-pull effect
51:41 - Is trend following the solution?
54:39 - The optimal portfolio in 2024
01:01:04 - A time of opportunity?
01:03:49 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 01 May 2024 - 1h 05min - 1364 - SI293: Market Outlook for the Rest of 2024 & EOY S&P500 level ft. Cem Karsan
Today, I'm joined by Cem Karsan to discuss how speculations in markets affect the economy and Cem presents his view on the current state of global macro as well as a forecast for the rest of the year. How do conflicts around the world affect the global economy and why does Cem believe that we are going into a “dangerous period”? Why does Cem believe options are key to making profit from different scenarios and outcomes and what are the possibilities of seeing US rate cuts later this year? We also discuss how the U.S election will impact the economy and where Cem believes the equity markets will finish the year and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:47 - What has been on our radar recently?
02:22 - What is the talk of the town in the vol space at the moment?
03:11 -Industry performance update
05:27 - Q1: What is Cem's view on the impact of call speculation on the VIX?
12:17 - Cem's perspective on the current state of global macro
18:09 - Important market development recently?
31:40 - Making profit from different scenarios
35:48 - The structure of markets
42:23 -Are rate cuts coming?
48:10 - How the U.S election will change the economic narrative
53:32 - The pros and cons of a win for Trump
56:49 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 27 Apr 2024 - 58min - 1363 - GM59: The Geopolitical Tug-of-War: Russia, China & the West ft. Marko Papic
Join us for an eye-opening discussion on global power dynamics with geopolitics expert Marko Papic, alongside Cem Karsan and myself, where we dive deep into the ongoing tug-of-war between the West, Russia, China, and the rest of the world. Marko sheds light on the United States' push for a clear bipolar world order. He shares his insights on whether the world as we know it is coming to an end and why a Trump presidency may pave the way for trade deals and foreign policy agreements, particularly with rivals like China. Looking ahead, Marko discusses Europe's industrial sector and explains why investing in European industrials could be a smart move. Finally, we explore the complexities of the relationship between Russia and China. Are they as close as we think? And is China's dream of becoming the next superpower within reach? We also delve into the possibility of China's move to invade Taiwan and what it would entail.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Marko on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:15 - Marko's current macro framework
07:20 - Moving towards a multi-polar world
14:43 - How is now different from back in the days?
23:36 - Trump landing the deglobalization plane
31:48 - The election - a macro black hole
36:47 - The new world from a non-US perspective
44:18 - What happens with Ukraine?
49:50 - An increased risk for bigger global conflicts?
56:15 - Creating strong relationships
01:02:50 - Will China invade Taiwan in the next 5 years?
01:05:30 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 24 Apr 2024 - 1h 06min - 1362 - SI292: Is Cocoa becoming Too Hot for Trend Followers? ft. Rob Carver
Today, Rob Carver joins me to answer questions about MatLab as a backtesting tool, why you should be careful to apply trend following in crypto and what Rob think about seasonality and relative value as strategies. We also dive into why Rob has increased his allocation to trend following and his thought process when building portfolios, how the surging price of cocoa has impacted the trend following industry and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:05 - What has been on our radar recently?
06:15 - Industry performance update
09:54 - Q1, Paul: Where can I learn MatLab?
13:38 - Q2, Byleth: What is Rob's experience with trend in crypto?
20:41 - Q3, Tauras: What are Rob's thoughts on seasonality and relative value as strategies?
26:23 - Are strategies like seasonality convergent?
27:14 - Rob's thoughts on relative value as a strategy
32:00 - Shock! Horror! I've increased my CTA allocation
41:07 - Rob's thought process on portfolio allocation
46:19 - Vol scaling with a nice cup of hot cocoa
57:43 - Path-dependence vs. non-path dependence
59:53 - Final thoughts and a cliff hanger
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 20 Apr 2024 - 1h 01min - 1361 - IL25: Any Happy Returns... the Next Super Cycle? ft. Peter Oppenheimer
In this episode Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Strategist and Head of Macro Research in Europe for Goldman Sachs joins us to discuss his new book Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets. Peter believes financial cycles are the primary driver of investor returns. He explains how each cycle consists of four phases with distinct characteristics in terms of returns, earnings growth and valuations. We talk about the structural changes that are creating headwinds for markets in our current super-cycle and how AI and the energy transition might help offset them.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Peter on LinkedIn & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:07 -Introduction to Peter Oppenheimer
04:59 -What do financial cycles derive from?
07:19 -What drives the cycles?
09:31 -A desynchronisation in the cycles
12:15 -Are we entering an optimism phase?
14:39 -Interpreting the signals
17:38 -Does Peter see room for interest rates to rise?
21:59 -What drives the high corporate profits in GDP?
26:54 -Are companies losing their margins?
29:17 -The potential of AI
31:54 -Can high energy consumption ruin the development of AI?
35:48 -Where will the investment in AI come from?
40:00 -Going full cycle
41:37 -The engines of growth
43:43 -Did the central bank response stop markets from becoming volatile?
48:13 -The role of central banks
51:22 -Getting out of a period of high debt
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 17 Apr 2024 - 57min - 1360 - SI291: Trend Following...What should it mean to Investors? ft. Richard Brennan
In this episode, we are joined by Richard Brennan to discuss why now is the time to step up your trend following allocation. Rich challenges Andrew Beer’s conclusion that a 3% allocation to trend following is the sweet spot and explains why he believes the trend following industry should simplify its narrative and quit the fancy “jargon”. We also discuss what defines a trend follower and why we may be losing the incentive to keep improving as trend followers, new research on the impact of crises and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:08 -What has been on our radar recently?
08:33 -Industry performance update
16:02 -What is the optimal allocation to trend following?
24:02 -Do trend followers have fiduciary responsibility?
27:09 -Why is Andrew Beer having trouble with his trend following allocation?
31:30 -Are we moving too far away from the classic trend following?
37:21 -What does it take to call yourself a trend follower?
42:01 -Discussing Corey Hoffstein's approach
46:44 -What about the fees?
50:34 -Are we losing the incentive to improve?
58:45 -The impact of crises
01:07:11 - Sign up for our new newsletter
01:08:26 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 13 Apr 2024 - 1h 09min - 1359 - TTU146: The value of Unpredictable Alpha ft. Anthony Todd
Today, we are delighted to be joined by Anthony Todd, Co-Founder & CEO of Aspect Capital, for an insightful discussion on the role of systematic trading and trend following in today’s economy. We also discuss what has driven Aspect Capital’s shift towards developing multiple strategies and how they guide their clients to make better investment decisions, whether the trend following industry should be concerned about replication strategies and how allocations are funded today. Lastly, we discuss how Aspect Capital uses AI in their work and how systematic trading has changed as a whole with the rise of AI, what Todd is most excited and concerned about in 2024 and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Todd on LinkedIn.
Find out more about DUNN Capital
Episode Timestamps:
02:24 - Introduction to Anthony Todd and Aspect Capital
05:43 - A global macro perspective
09:45 - How has the industry evolved?
13:51 - Are investors under-allocated to trend?
17:11 - Trend following - a return enhancer?
20:37 - The correlation between stocks and bonds
25:27 - The path to offering multible strategies
29:47 - Balancing choices and guiding clients and investors
33:26 - Are CTAs threatened by replication strategies?
39:11 - How are allocations funded now?
42:28 - CTAs - competitors or a different allocation?
44:44 - Does capping the beta make sense?
49:21 - Are investors becoming too difficult?
52:49 - Todd's view on the use of artificial intelligence
58:13 - Has trend following changed because of AI?
01:02:53 -Excitement and concerns for 2024
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK TTU146: Aspect Capital InsightsCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 10 Apr 2024 - 1h 11min - 1358 - SI290: Honey, I Shrunk the Trend Following ft. Andrew Beer
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer to discuss why the current surge in Cocoa prices really is a big deal for our industry, but how CTAs have been selling it this year, against many main stream media reports. We also dig into how the strong performance in Q1 2024 is helping Trend Following making its way into more Model Portfolios and the existential crisis that we are seeing in the Model Portfolio world. We explain how the narrative around trend following is changing and why replication strategies are becoming less radical. And we wrap up our conversation touching on what the optimal allocation to trend following should be based on the latest publication from Man Institute, the challenges of dealing with unrealistic expectations in the trend following space and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:16 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:38 - Industry performance update
06:49 - What is the big deal with Cocoa?
11:49 -What causes the rising Cocoa prices?
13:56 - A fantastic start to the year for trend following
16:58 - Industry performance update continued
18:12 - Q1, Peter: What percentage of your liquid net worth do you have invested in DBMF?
22:05 - What does Q1 2024 mean for CTAs?
30:51 - A period of normalcy
34:02 - A change in the trend following narrative
42:54 - Are replication strategies becoming less radical?
46:22 - Stacking returns - a good or bad idea?
52:35 - Honey, I Shrunk the Trend-Following (paper from Man Institute)
57:08 - Finding the optimal allocation
01:04:27 - Niels' different perspective on a trend following allocation
01:07:11 -Different allocations for different situations?
01:11:10 -Too old for unrealistic expectations
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK SI290: Honey, I Shrunk the Trend-Following | Man InstituteCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 06 Apr 2024 - 1h 15min - 1357 - ALO22: Finding an Absolute Return Solution for a C$11BN Pension Plan ft. Christophe L'Ahelec
Christophe L’Ahelec, Managing Director of Public Markets at University Pension Plan Ontario, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss their approach to managing the C$11bn defined benefit pension plan. We discuss the high level Strategic Asset Allocation of the plan and also how the changed macro environment in recent years has motivated a shift in the asset allocation towards more absolute return strategies. Such strategies play a dual role of diversification and return enhancement for UPP and we discuss how Christophe thinks about an appropriate strategy allocation within absolute return. We also delve into the challenges of manager selection and evaluation, why it is important to remember that you are buying an “investment process” not historical returns when allocating to managers and discuss when is it appropriate to remove a manager and when not.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Christophe on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:50 -Introduction to Christophe L'Ahelec
07:06 -A new initiative
10:01 -What kind of strategy drives their asset allocation?
12:40 -What goes into which bucket?
14:45 -What makes absolute return exposure more attractive at the moment?
16:31 -Constructing an absolute return portfolio
18:38 -How they approach trend following
21:58 -Why do they use leverage?
23:32 -What do they expect from their portfolio?
25:12 -Managing liabilities
27:58 -Public equities - where do they stand?
30:59 -Investing in niche strategies
34:11 -How they evaluate managers
36:21 -Open to early stage manager risk?
41:42 -What makes a manager stand out?
44:56 -When should you remove a manager?
46:47 -What is their governance process?
50:36 -How they make decisions as a team
52:20 -Advice for new investors
55:34 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 03 Apr 2024 - 56min - 1356 - SI289: Kahneman, Trend Following & Cocoa ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us to remember one of the most important people within modern-day finance, author and psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, and the impact he had on our industry. We also discuss how increasing interest rates change the way investors behave and why trend following and CTAs have performed so well the past 5 years, perhaps without been given the credit the strategy deserves. We also dive into the cocoa market to discuss why it may still have a long way to go, despite racking up another 60% rise in March 2024 alone. We then move on to explain why the financial conditions index is important to understand for trend followers and why Mark believes stocks may continue to rise. Lastly, we discuss what makes trend following unique, why having trend following in your portfolio can help you achieve better performance and more diversification and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:03 - Remembering Daniel Kahneman
03:54 - Things are changing
09:54 - Industry performance update
13:32 - What the Credit Suisse Managed Futures Index is missing
16:23 - Let's talk about Cocoa
21:55 - Trends can last longer than people expect
24:44 - Is the Cocoa market a bubble?
28:31 - Less markets = better performance?
30:43 - Static vs. Dynamic position sizing in the Cocoa market
39:13 - Understanding the financial conditions index
45:09 - A euphoric environment
49:47 - What makes trend following unique?
54:50 - Global macro vs. trend following
59:01 - A rotation in the alternative markets
01:03:15 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK SI289: Global Macro and Managed Futures Hedge Fund Strategies: Portfolio Differentiators?LINK SI289: A Century of Macro Factor InvestingCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 30 Mar 2024 - 1h 06min - 1355 - OI07: The Evolution of Short-Term Trading ft. Tony Kaiser
In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Tony Kaiser, the CEO and founder of Kaiser Trading, a short-term systematic fund based in Melbourne, Australia.
Tony speaks about his start in the late 1990s, leaving a bank prop trading role to set up his own shop, and then comments on how the short-term trading space has changed and evolved over the years. Today, the models they use are shorter-term than the ones they used to trade decades ago, and the entire business is much more tech dependent. Tony mentions that short-term trading is difficult and that the space has a higher barrier to entry, which is why there are relatively few short-term managers for investors to choose from, but that one really attractive feature is the low correlation of their returns not only to traditional asset classes, but also to their own sector, i.e., other short-term managers.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Tony on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:16 -Introduction to Tony Kaiser
04:07 -An interesting journey
16:50 -A difficult space for alpha
20:55 -Why did Kaiser move into the short term space?
28:17 -How has trading frequency and systems evolved?
33:15 -Do Kaiser's original models still work today?
45:28 -A shock to the system
49:43 -Where does the low correlation come from?
57:00 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 27 Mar 2024 - 58min - 1354 - SI288: Why Investors are Under-Allocating to Trend Following? ft. Alan Dunne
Join us for the weekly trend following update with Alan Dunne, where we discuss why 2024 is turning into an interesting year for investors with diverging signals from Central Banks. We debate the possibility of the markets entering a bubble and how the levels of interest rates could cause a refinance crisis. Alan also takes us through the history and outlook as per the newly released UBS 2024 Yearbook, uncovering what has been dominating the economy throughout history, and the reason why many investors might be missing out on potential diversification by under-allocating to trend following. Lastly, we discuss the role of hedge funds in a multi asset portfolio and the importance of constructing a portfolio that best suits the investor’s needs.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:21 - What is catching our attention at the moment?
05:40 - Is the economy becoming a bubble?
14:09 - A refinance crisis inbound?
20:41 - Industry performance update
24:49 - The economic outlook and history - UBS 2024 Yearbook
32:29 - Equities are here for the long term
37:57 - All in on equities?
44:15 - Investors are getting this wrong
46:19 - Can hedge funds play the right role?
50:17 - Where do multi-strat funds fit in?
53:28 - Choosing the right strategy
58:00 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK SI288: Why Not 100% EquitiesLINK SI288: Can hedge funds play the role?LINK SI286: The Road Ahead: Regime-Based InvestingLINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being CutLINK SI280: Driving with the Rear-View MirrorLINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run?LINK SI280: Dial Up Return, Not Risk: The Z-Shift FrameworkLINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes, Sometimes NoLINK: Insights from AlphaSimplexCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 23 Mar 2024 - 59min - 1353 - OI6: A Fundamental Approach to Commodities ft. Ricardo Leiman & Pedro Marion
In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Ricardo Leiman and Pedro Marion from KLI Asset Management, a UK-based commodities-focused hedge fund. Ricardo and Pedro explain why KLI’s trading approach is rooted in deep fundamental analysis of commodity supply and demand and how they integrate commodity equities into their portfolio. Furthermore, they mention that the strong diversification across their portfolio of about 30 markets allows them to hold directional positions longer term, avoiding stop-outs on short-term price reversals – a feature that’s also an edge. Ricardo and Pedro also provide color on markets which they believe are currently interesting, including copper, sugar, coffee, oil, and EUA emission allowances.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Ricardo on LinkedIn
Follow Pedro on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 -Introduction to Ricardo and Pedro
06:18 -What is their edge?
07:57 -What commodities are they trading?
08:46 -Why they don't trade cocoa
11:09 -Acquiring information through networking
13:40 -Why and how do they trade commodity equities
17:15 -What do they consider long-term?
19:38 -Why isn't copper sky rocketing?
22:01 -Their approach to options
22:50 -How they incorporate trend following in their trading
25:24 -Global macro perspectives
27:28 -No hard landing?
28:35 -Is the coal market dying?
31:14 -The outlook of EUAs
35:03 -Do they formulate a price target in their models?
37:08 -A disconnect in the green transition
38:58 -Natural gas market integrating with LNG
40:55 -Their view on the grain markets
43:34 -A quick touch on other markets
44:20 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 20 Mar 2024 - 45min - 1352 - SI287: No Pain, No Gain ft. Katy Kaminski
Today, we welcome Katy Kaminiski back to the show as we reflect on her entry into the trend following space and what she has learned on her systematic journey. We also discuss different ways of allocating risk in portfolio construction and why Katy “loves skewness”, why preparing for pain can actually lead to better decisions as an investor and how changes in the global macro environment takes time to manifest in trends. Lastly, we discuss what we are both excited and nervous for in 2024.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:50 -What has been on our radar recently?
03:03 -When are trends coming to an end?
06:24 -Industry performance update
07:31 -How did Katy end up in the trend following industry?
11:19 -What attracted her to the industry?
12:40 -What Katy has learned from being an allocator
15:44 -Risk variations in portfolio construction
20:21 -What drives the biggest dispersion?
21:54 -Understanding risk in your portfolio
24:05 -Constant vol targeting - just a phase?
25:25 -The importance of skewness
31:06 -Mind the timeframe
34:57 -Preparing for pain ahead of time (MAN Paper)
38:15 -No pain, no gain...
43:28 -Economic trend (AQR Paper)
47:33 -Dealing with a world in disruption
50:48 -Excitement and worries about 2024
57:05 -What is up for next episode?
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being CutLINK: Insights from AlphaSimplexCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 16 Mar 2024 - 59min - 1351 - GM58: Electric Dreams and Commodity Market Realities ft. Tor Svelland
Tor Svelland, of Svelland Capital, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the global macro forces driving global commodity markets. They discuss how the commodity markets have evolved over the years, as banks have scaled back trading and quant firms and CTAs have become more prominent players. Tor outlines the key reasons he believes commodity markets are in the midst of a super cycle, identifies where he sees the strongest opportunities and discusses what the commodity markets are currently suggesting about the state of global demand. They discuss how the global energy transition, de-globalization and nearshoring, rising geopolitical risk and increased defence spending will impact markets. They also delve into the periodic mis-pricings Tor sees between equities, particularly technology stocks, and commodities given their rising electricity demand.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Tor on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:26 -Introduction to Tor Svelland
06:18 -How have commodity markets evolved?
09:19 -More opportunities in commodity markets?
11:32 -Why Tor started his own firm
14:15 -Tor's outlook for the commodity markets
17:10 -What has driven the flat trend in the major industrial markets?
20:09 -Are we in a super cycle?
22:55 -Translating trends into trades
24:47 -Which markets will benefit from the energy transition?
26:55 -A slow transition
31:14 -The temperature of the global economy
35:21 -Where will we see signs of recession?
39:13 -Is disinflation a major trend?
41:14 -How extreme can it get?
42:42 -How will Europe meet its energy demands going forward??
45:13 -How the defense spending will impact markets
47:07 -Taking advantage of the spikes in markets
51:06 -How volatility sellers affect markets
52:56 -Additional observations in the commodity markets
55:18 -Putting it all together
56:52 -Why has gold miners been so slow?
58:27 -Private capital taking over?
59:20 -Advice for other investors
01:00:30 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 13 Mar 2024 - 1h 01min - 1350 - SI286: Profiting from Different Investment Regimes? ft. Rob Carver
This week, Rob Carver joins us to uncover his process of choosing which instruments to trade and how to manage the volatility of these. We also discuss how time frames affect position sizing and the ability to get reasonable exposure to a market as well as how you manage your expenses as a full time systematic trader. We round off our conversation with a deep dive into the latest paper from Man Institute to find out if different regimes exist in reality or just in hindsight. The paper uncovers if investors can reliably profit from correctly identifying them and if so, how? And how various types of investing have performed through different regimes, including Trend Following.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:26 -What has been on our radar recently?
06:31 -Industry performance update
13:41 -Q1.0, Matthijs: Assuming that the trading costs are not a problem for some low-vol instrument, then how can we decide whether/how to still safely include the instrument in our portfolio?
23:50 - Q1.1 Matthijs: How do we distinguish between benign naturally low-vol instruments and disasters waiting to happen due to artificially dampened volatility?
26:18 - Q2, Ben: If I can trade markets like sugar or OJ on 20-day breakouts, is it reasonable to do so or is that quote-unquote too fast?
32:08 - Q3, Emil: As a full time systematic trader, how do you manage your expenses, with up and down months/years?
43:09 - Discussing latest Man Institute paper on regime based investing
50:37 - A win for trend following
59:32 - Does it matter if the Fed is tightening?
01:01:53 -The Impact of Contango vs. Backwardation
01:09:57 -Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK SI288: Why Not 100% EquitiesLINK SI288: Can hedge funds play the role?LINK SI286: The Road Ahead: Regime-Based InvestingLINK SI286: Regime-Based InvestingLINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being CutLINK SI280: Driving with the Rear-View MirrorLINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run?LINK SI280: Dial Up Return, Not Risk: The Z-Shift FrameworkLINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes, Sometimes NoLINK: Insights from AlphaSimplexCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 09 Mar 2024 - 1h 11min - 1349 - IL24: Our Chance to Build a Sustainable Future ft. Hannah Ritchie
In this episode we talk to Dr. Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor and Lead Researcher at Our World In Data and author of the Not The End of the World, How We Can Be The First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet. Dr. Ritchie talks about her personal journey from a climate pessimist ready to switch careers to a data scientist explaining why the world can transition to a sustainable future. We discuss how China and India are becoming greener at a much faster rate than western countries did as they developed. We also talk about why electrification is so important and the role for nuclear and gas power in that process. She explains why food systems play an important role in emissions and the surprising list of individual actions that help - and also hurt - the environment.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Hannah on LinkedIn andRead her Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - Introduction to Hannah Ritchie
09:17 - How does Hannah describe herself and her work?
10:56 - How has global CO2 emission developed?
16:01 - How is China managing their intermittency problem?
19:10 - How does nuclear play a role for our future?
21:53 - Natural gas - a perfect bridge?
23:35 - Are EVs a viable solution for transportation?
26:55 - Addressing the criticism of EVs
30:31 - Why does a plant based diet have such a big environmental impact?
34:05 - Why organic farming methods and local meat isn't really sustainable
37:59 - Why is Ritchie skeptical about vertical farming?
40:50 - Can plastic be positive for the environment?
43:16 - Managing the plastic waste
47:27 - Importing and export plastic waste
49:38 - How to be an optimal data scientist
56:11 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 06 Mar 2024 - 58min - 1348 - SI285: Elections Ahead & What this Mean for Investors ft. Cem Karsan
Today, Cem Karsan joins us to discuss a wide range or really important topics. Inspired by questions from listeners we discuss how the balance in asset performance is shifting and how 0DTE impact markets. We also discuss how 2024 will contain more inportant elections than any other year in recent history and how we foresee the U.S. election will play out, the state of flows and the rise of a new meme stock. Lastly, we discuss whether the U.S. is beginning to loose the exorbitant privilege due to their huge debt and the potential power shifts that can happen in the nearby future.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:06 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:13 - Industry performance update
08:01 - Q1, Rick: Is positioning in tech under or over weighted?
11:23 -How 0DTE impact markets
18:08 - Is the VIX broken?
24:03 - 2024 - The year of elections
30:19 - Republicans or democrats - does it even matter to the markets?
32:09 - The return of the Kennedy's
39:15 - What is going on with flows?
47:55 - The rise of meme stocks
52:41 - How the U.S. debt will impact the dollar
59:59 - A wild ride for Japan
01:05:54 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 02 Mar 2024 - 1h 07min - 1347 - ALO21: How to Run a Multi-Billion Dollar Sovereign Fund ft. Peter Madsen
Peter Madsen, CIO of SITFO, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how the $3.5bn State of Utah Sovereign Fund runs its investment portfolio. They discuss the rationale for Peter’s investment philosophy of having a diversified portfolio of growth assets, real assets, income generating assets and defensive strategies in contrast to the equity-centred portfolios of many endowments. Peter discusses the key risk considerations in managing the portfolio and how the team think about formulating return expectations. They discuss the opportunities in private markets and the potential risks in private credit in particular. A key element of the portfolio is the allocation to Systematic Convexity which includes Trend Following and Global Macro strategies and Peter discusses his journey investing in CTAs and some of the challenges and pitfalls of selecting managers.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Peter on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:56 - Introduction to Peter Madsen and his firm
06:54 - How is their portfolio charactarized?
09:16 - Their investment philosophy
14:33 - A skepticism about equities?
17:04 - How do the macro environment influence them?
21:23 - What is reasonable return expectation for equities?
25:19 - Splitting between public and private markets
28:20 - Where lies the most risk?
30:25 - Opportunities in the private credit space
33:21 - Building a strong defense
38:29 - Why don't more people invest?
40:41 - Madsen's view on CTAs and Global Macro
45:51 - The pitfalls of manager selection
49:29 - How important is performance?
51:39 - Constructing an efficient decision-making process
56:24 - Guiding and assessing a team of managers
59:55 - Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 28 Feb 2024 - 1h 05min - 1346 - SI284: Choosing Your Trend Following Battles ft. Nick Baltas
Goldman Sachs's Nick Baltas joins us today, to help us uncover if it is meaningful to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures. We also weigh in on couple of articles, relating to the outlook for trend following and the state of the industry, before turning our attention to some hard core research into how to construct the optimal trend following portfolio and why it is important to be conscious of which battles you pick. Lastly, we discuss the challenge of timing an investment into trend following, the pros and cons of trading alternative markets and more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:23 - What has caught our interest recently?
03:04 - The Nikkei index finally comes out it its 35 year drawdown
05:35 - Industry performance update
07:37 - Q1, Oliver: Does it makes sense to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures?
14:24 - The state of the industry
18:17 - Is trend following flopping?
27:34 - Building optimal trend following portfolios
36:15 - Pick your battles
49:10 - Is there a way to time trend following?
53:34 - Is it actually an advantage to trade alternative markets?
01:04:44 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 24 Feb 2024 - 1h 06min - 1345 - OI05: Is Trading Fewer Markets Actually Better? ft. Richard Liddle & Gareth Abbot
In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Gareth Abbot and Richard Liddle from Bowmoor Capital, a trend following firm based in the UK. Gareth and Richard explain why they decided to go against many trend followers and limit their investment universe to 21 markets – a “compact” portfolio – and why additional markets would likely dilute the return stream they aim to generate. We also speak about their portfolio construction process which includes the combination of 16 systems and results in what they call “smart pyramiding” in and out of positions. Finally, we touch on dynamic position sizing.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Richard on LinkedIn
Follow Bowmoor Capital.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 - Introduction to Richard Liddle and Gareth Abbot
05:19 - How did they get into investing?
09:43 - Why trend following?
13:55 - Solving the market puzzle
15:36 - How they designed their strategy?
18:46 - The reason for their market selection
24:18 - Why exactly 21 markets?
31:13 - How did they design their system?
39:47 - Why they don't trade hundreds of markets
42:08 - What timeframes and models do they work with?
50:13 - Controlling the heat
55:31 - What is "heat" in a portfolio?
57:26 - How do they manage the heat?
01:00:06 - How they use dynamic position sizing
01:05:00 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 21 Feb 2024 - 1h 06min - 1344 - SI283: How to Beat the Benchmarks ft. Richard Brennan
Come along for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan, where we dive into how to the beat the benchmarks as a manager. We discuss the different factors that goes into achieving great performance and why trend following has greater potential return than other alternative investment strategies, why bigger and newer is not always better in terms of complex adaptive systems, why it is important to be aware of system diversification and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - What has caught our attention recently?
02:33 - What will 2024 bring for trend following?
07:11 - Inflation? Look to the Tooth Fairy
08:33 - Industry performance update
11:34 - Q1, Mark: Should trend followers size long and short positions the same?
17:20 - Outperforming the benchmarks
36:39 - The "secrets" of achieving great performance
44:42 - Is bigger always better?
52:43 - The importance of system diversification
01:03:45 - Working out the optimal parameters
01:08:14 - Crazy times in the cocoa market
01:09:41 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sun, 18 Feb 2024 - 1h 12min - 1343 - GM57: Navigating the Next Decade ft. Kiril Sokoloff
Legendary strategist Kiril Sokoloff, founder and Chairman of 13D Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a whirlwind tour of where Kiril sees the risks and opportunities in global markets over the next decade. Kiril outlines the reasons behind his belief that the secular bull market in bonds is over and a secular bear market is now underway. They discuss implications of climate change decarbonisation, the ageing global economy, rising debt levels and the growing risk of a significant derailment of the global economy from protectionism. Kiril explains why he is bullish oil, copper, uranium and gold and why gold mining stocks are the cheapest asset on the planet and his top contrarian call. They discuss China’s current economic challenges and why Kiril remains upbeat on the longer-term outlook for China and Chinese stocks but why there may be even greater opportunities in India.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Kiril's work on 13D.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:31 - Introduction to Kiril Sokoloff
05:21 -Are we heading back to "normal"?
11:17 -Will China become an inflationary force?
14:30 - Is China still investable?
17:05 -A Chinese confidence crisis
18:45 - The outlook for inflation from a historical perspective
23:13 - What is going on in the oil market?
25:45 - What drives the shift towards solar energy in China?
27:57 - The move towards nuclear energy
29:55 - U.S vs. Europe vs. China
33:12 - How to position for the next 20 years
35:12 - Why is Sokoloff a fan of gold?
39:13 -A move away from the dollar
44:50 - Understanding the gold market
49:05 - How will AI impact the economy?
51:30 - India - the next China?
53:34 - How will the decarbonization evolve?
55:38 - Sokoloff's favorite contrarian calls
57:50 - Sokoloff's process for generation ideas
59:24 -Advice for other investors
02:02:03 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 14 Feb 2024 - 1h 03min - 1342 - SI282: Rethinking Bonds: the Changing Role of Fixed Income ft. Andrew Beer
Andrew Beer returns to the show for a fascinating conversation, where we question the role of Bonds in today's environment, and review both current and historic performance, and what it takes to change investors minds about replacing bonds with managed futures. We also discuss why long-term timeframes might be better for most investors within Trend Following and why stock-picking are becoming less relevant due to shifts in the S&P500 structure. Lastly, we touch on the ETF space and how the investment industry is slow at adapting to change, whether democracy is on its last legs and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:53 -A dark time
04:24 -Industry performance update
10:57 -Should we replace bonds with managed futures? (or vice versa)
21:59 -What does it take to change investors minds?
33:26 -No one can erase 2022, and that is important
35:01 -A misleading narrative in the managed futures space
38:30 -Long or short term - who performed the best?
43:39 -Are stocks becoming less relevant?
53:22 -An update on the ETF space
56:25 -An existential crisis within equity hedge funds
58:55 -Capitalism and the political discourse
01:03:58 -Is democracy on its last legs?
01:06:32 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sun, 11 Feb 2024 - 1h 08min - 1341 - GM56: Structural Shifts - A Threat to the Economy? ft. Frances Donald
Frances Donald, Chief Economist and Strategist at Manulife Investment Management, joins Alan Dunne to discuss how the drivers of the economy and inflation are undergoing a structural shift and what this means for the economic outlook. We hear why Frances expects a recession in the US economy in 2024 and why the risks to her forecasts are on the downside. Frances outlines where she currently sees tactical opportunities in fixed income markets and why she expects equity markets to face headwinds as investors start to see “bad news as bad news” this year. The conversations delves into the big shift underway in the global economy, becoming more supply driven than demand driven and the implications this will have for inflation, monetary policy and fiscal policy over the medium term.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Frances on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:39 - Introduction to Frances Donald
06:39 - What caused a pivot from the central banks?
13:10 - Why were they wrong about their forecast?
20:43 - Where are the weak spots?
23:58 - Does recession calls even matter?
27:34 - Frances' outlook for the economy
39:21 - Are we heading into a structural shift?
51:04 - Will things change in the next administration?
53:33 - Are fixed income markets becoming more investable?
59:35 - Advice for the other investors
01:01:15 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 07 Feb 2024 - 1h 02min - 1340 - SI281: More Markets = Better Performance? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to reflect on how the first month of 2024 has been treating investor. We also discuss how misinformation posses a major threat to the global economy and how some managers are moving away from price as the only data input, how speed plays a role within trend following and why it is important to be aware of a manager’s "personality". Lastly, we dive deep into principal component analysis and the factors that drive trend following performance, how trading more markets may produce better returns according to new research and how diversification can come in many different forms.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:09 - What has caught our interest recently?
02:27 - Industry performance update
06:16 - Misinformation - a global threat
12:14 - The drivers of price
17:17 - Finding the optimal lookback period
22:48 - Managers have different personalities
29:53 - What makes up good trend following performance?
32:24 - Diving into principal component analysis
39:32 - More markets = better returns?
44:54 - Diversification can come in many forms
49:37 - How will trend following perform in different cycles?
54:34 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being CutLINK: Insights from AlphaSimplexCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 03 Feb 2024 - 56min - 1339 - IL23: Learning to Fail Well ft. Amy Edmondson
In this episode we talk to Amy Edmondson, Harvard Business School professor and author of the Financial Times 2023 Business Book of the Year: The Right Kind of Wrong, The Science of Failing Well.Edmondson argues we should cultivate an appetite for “intelligent failure” - events that may be painful but ultimately lead to innovation, personal growth and better relationships. This is difficult because we are hardwired to push failure “underground”, a bias that is often made worse by work cultures that punish failure in the name of accountability. Edmondson explains how we can overcome these obstacles using stories from her own life and findings from her career as a scientific researcher.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Amy on LinkedIn andRead her Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 -Introduction to Amy Edmondson
10:27 -The importance of psychological safety
15:04 -The different types of failure
18:25 -Why do we fear to fail?
22:54 -The idea of reframing
25:04 -Practicing reframing
27:06 -Has the way students work changed?
30:25 -The dark side of the performance mindset
32:40 -Integrating feedback the right way
36:16 -The Stop. Challenge. Choose Method
41:02 -The key aspect of failing well
44:48 -How can we cultivate intelligent failure?
50:35 -Conceptualizing excellence in a new way
53:33 -Encouraging openness while maintaining intellectual property
56:33 -A philosophical perspective
01:00:36- Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 31 Jan 2024 - 1h 02min - 1338 - SI280: Equities for the Long Run? ft. Alan Dunne
As we are getting closer to the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss how markets might be affected, should Trump win the election. We also answer a question from our community, in terms of how much you should consider allocating to Trend Following as part of a multi-asset portfolio and we discuss the historical differences between equity and managed futures drawdowns. Lastly, we dive into a couple of recent papers to find out whether stocks are the most optimal allocation for the long run, whether the next decade will be like the last one and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:26 - The importance of liquidity
06:39 - The global macro picture
11:52 - How will markets be affected by the presidential election?
16:10 - What about China?
21:24 - Industry performance update
24:04 - Q1, Anonymous: What would be a fair allocation to trend following in a diversified multi-asset portfolio?
32:33 - Q1.1 Anonymous: Any resources or insights to help the selection process for UCITS funds
37:29 - Equity versus managed futures drawdowns
43:10 - Stocks for the long run - really?
55:38 - Has it gone too far with the Magnificent 7's?
57:28 - The outlook of the next decade
01:02:32 -Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being CutLINK SI280: Driving with the Rear-View MirrorLINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run?LINK SI280: Dial Up Return, Not Risk: The Z-Shift FrameworkLINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes, Sometimes NoLINK: Insights from AlphaSimplexCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 27 Jan 2024 - 1h 04min - 1337 - ALO20: How Will Mega Trends Shape the Economy? ft. Casey Clark
Casey Clark, President and CIO of Rockefeller Asset Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the mega trends shaping the investment landscape and asset management industry over the coming years. We hear Casey’s insights on what are the key traits of great investors, how Rockefeller evaluates aspiring portfolio managers and what makes a great investment process. The conversation delves into the changing macro landscape, the implications of a positive correlation between bonds and equities for allocators and why we may see a resurgence of value investing and greater adoption of alternatives in portfolios. We also delve into ESG, the diverging trends in ESG investing in the US and Europe and how the framework of ESG leaders and improvers is key to how Rockefeller thinks about incorporating ESG into their alpha generation process.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Casey on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:45 - Introduction to Casey Clark
07:02 - How do Rockefeller Capital Management manage their assets?
10:01 - What is their investment philosophy?
12:04 - Who are their clients?
12:45 - How do they build their strategies?
14:24 - How are they setting themselves up for mega trends like AI
16:55 - What is driving the ETF growth?
17:32 - Their approach to evaluating managers
21:49 - Having the right benchmark
24:34 - What makes a good investment process?
26:08 - How do they come up with new ideas?
30:13 - Investing with ESG in mind
34:30 - A constraint or opportunity?
36:56 - Are we approaching a changing investment environment?
41:55 - How mega trends will shape the macro landscape
50:36 - A shift in the 60/40 portfolio?
54:17 - Is there a place for alternatives?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 24 Jan 2024 - 1h 00min - 1336 - SI279: Prepare for a Bumpy Landing ft. Katy Kaminski
In this episode, I'm joined by Katy Kaminski, who delves into the nuances distinguishing momentum trading from trend following, emphasizing the importance of comprehending the underlying philosophy of a trading strategy. Katy sheds light on the concept of 'pure trend' and offers insights on identifying convergent patterns within a trend following approach. We also reflect on the peculiarities of 2023, with Katy sharing her perspective on why we might be entering 'the final phase' and her expectations of a "bumpy" rather than smooth or abrupt economic transition, among other insightful topics.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:52 -A funny story from Katy
02:34 -An important shout-out
03:42 -A rare event in Denmark
06:55 -Industry performance update
08:10 -Thoughts on 2024 so far
09:42 -The difference between momentum and trend following
13:53 -Convergent vs. divergent strategies
24:08 -What does "pure trend" mean to Katy?
28:03 -What makes you a pure trend follower?
32:53 -Looking back at 2023
37:48 -An unusual year
43:22 -Discussing Katy's paper on fixed income
47:43 -How were trend models positioned in the 1960's?
51:11 -What does your position mean?
54:40 -Next big bull market in commodities?
56:10 -Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK 279: From Bears to Bulls?Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 20 Jan 2024 - 58min - 1335 - GM55: What Investors Need to Know about 2024 ft. Dave Dredge & Cem Karsan
Get ready for a powerhouse discussion as two titans of risk management, Dave Dredge and Cem Karsan, come together once again. These experts are renowned for their insights, and today, they're diving deep into what's unfolded since their last conversation and where the smart money should be in 2024. From avoiding pitfalls to uncovering lucrative opportunities, Dave and Cem have you covered. Tune in for a dynamic start to the year!
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Dave on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:37 - Looking back on our last conversation
07:55 - Are markets looking too good to be true?
14:04 - The importance of long volatility and owning convexity
24:41 - Why is volatility compression normalizing?
31:35 - A system under pressure
38:48 - How is now different to the 1970's?
42:09 - Can deglobalization be a good thing?
53:00 - Where is the debt problem going?
01:04:25 - Volatility and liquidity are opposite sides of the same coin
01:09:08 - How Dredge is carrying out volatility selling
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 17 Jan 2024 - 1h 22min - 1334 - SI278: Trend Following Risk Premium...is it there & could it go away? ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver returns to the show to discuss whether there is a risk that the Trend Following risk premium could one day disappear and how he manages exogenous and endogenous risks in a trend following system, how he thinks of trading single stocks instead of stock indices in a diversified multi-asset trend program and what the minimum lookback period would be, in order to be considered “long term”. We also discuss the irony of the newly approved crypto ETF, how the nature of bitcoin has changed and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:23 - What has caught our attention recently?
10:14 - Industry performance update
11:26 - Q1, Norbert: What is the long-term expectation for the trend-following risk premium as measured by the SG Trend Index after costs and its stability or sustainability?
19:46 -Q2, Bruno: What is Rob's method for balancing endogenous and exogenous risk management and controls in a system
29:36 - Q3, Oliver: What is Rob's take on trading single stocks instead of stock indecies in a diversified multi-asset trend program
37:57 - Q4, Critter: What would the minimum lookback period be to be considered "long term"?
41:59 - Q5, Chris: Can you share a couple names of software companies that do robust backtesting of trade strategies
45:57 - Cypto ETFs have been approved!
52:42 - Allocating to bitcoin
01:04:31 -Looking into 2024
01:08:38 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 13 Jan 2024 - 1h 10min - 1333 - OI04: Do Alternative Markets Trend Better? ft. Scott Kerson
In this episode, Moritz Seibert is by Scott Kerson, the Head of GreshamQuant. Gresham is a commodity-focused investment management firm and GreshamQuant is their systematic trading arm. In 2017, they launched the ACAR Fund, an alternative markets trend following fund with an exclusive focus on commodities. Scott and Moritz discuss why they believes alternative markets to have better trending properties and higher Sharpe ratios within a trend following context and why they refuse to trade a larger portfolio which would also include the traditional futures markets most other CTAs trade. At the end, Scott also shares his outlook on the alternative markets CTA space with us. If you’re interested in alternative markets trend following, this is a valuable episode to listen to.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Scott on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - Introduction to Scott Kerson
08:27 - When did AHL Evolution start and what is it?
13:54 - What is an alternative market to Kerson and what differentiates it from other markets?
20:25 - Why an exclusive focus on commodities?
22:45 - What markets are Kerson trading and why?
24:04 - Where are the hidden gems?
26:31 - Why Kerson restrict the markets he is trading
30:37 - Maintaining a neo-classical trend approach
31:26 - A need for long-term?
33:09 - What is the capacity of the markets?
34:28 - What is the total AUM of alternative market CTAs today?
35:30 - Their core research philosophy
37:53 - The key barriers to entry
39:52 - How have they gone through 2023?
41:07 - Is there any market that stand out from the others?
43:16 - The outlook of the alternative markets CTA space
45:36 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 10 Jan 2024 - 46min - 1332 - SI277: What Will 2024 Bring? ft. Cem Karsan
Cem Karsan joins us to kick off 2024, where we discuss what lies ahead, and where we question if the reassuring inflation picture with falling prices, rising employment, and decreasing interest rates, may be a mirage. What do recent trends tell us about the outlook for 2024 and is the inflation environment the true driver of the economy? Why does Cem believe we are moving towards stagflation and what implications will this have for the economy? How has the understanding of “normal” changed over time and how will the U.S election impact 2024? And finally, Cem explains why he believes we need crises and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:30 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:02 - Industry performance update
06:15 - Q1, Rick: What are the implications and risks of the recent spike in SOFR?
11:02 -What trends have we seen recently?
16:53 - It all comes down to the inflation environment?
24:49 - Hidden dangers for the younger generation
27:29 - Soft landing + goldilocks = stagflation?
32:19 - Under the hood of inflation
34:23 - What is normal?
39:49 - How the U.S election will change the world
46:30 - Will 2024 lead to surprising moves in the ongoing conflicts?
49:59 - Looking from a bigger perspective
53:00 - Looking into the crystal ball
59:05 - Teasing for the conversation with David Dredge
01:03:58 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 06 Jan 2024 - 1h 05min - 1331 - ALO19: Managing Wealth for HNW Investors ft. Joe Prendergast
In this episode Joe Prendergast, Strategic Advisor and Head of Investment Strategy at Goodbody joins Alan Dunne to discuss the challenges and opportunities in managing wealth for HNW investors, particularly businesses owners. Joe outlines his investment philosophy and why a 50-50 allocation between growth assets and defensive assets is still at the core of his approach to proving a “peace a of mind” portfolio for investors. They discuss risk management and how to manage drawdown risk and the shortfalls of focusing too much on volatility as a risk measure when managing portfolios for private investors. They delve into the current investing backdrop, how higher interest rates have impacted asset allocation decisions and discuss why Joe is structurally more upbeat on the opportunities in public markets in the US but more optimistic on the opportunities in Europe and Asia for private equity.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Joe on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:46 -Introduction to Joe Prendergast
04:50 -Prendergast's learnings from working at Credit Suisse
07:00 -What types of portfolios are Prendergast running?
09:49 -Prendergast's investment philosophy
13:59 -How has 2022 changed the asset allocation space?
16:32 -Could we have another 2022?
18:56 -Having metrics for success
26:50 -Managing cash flow
31:43 -Shooting for a higher return
39:33 -Dealing with bumps on the road
43:48 -Prendergast's experience with the hedge fund industry
46:29 -Working as a Europe based FX investor
51:10 -Balancing attractive earnings capabilities vs a higher valuation starting point
55:13 -How Prendergast incorporates ESGs in his allocation
59:46 -Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 03 Jan 2024 - 1h 05min - 1330 - SI276: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 2
In this second part of our TTU Year-End special, we continue our conversation by discussing the challenge of defining non-trend strategies and the criteria for a good backtest, whether trend followers can afford to stand still in terms of research. We also discuss what is next for fixed income trading and we present our outrageous predictions for 2024. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged!
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on LinkedIn.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Richard on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 -Trend following in an unpredictable world
09:50 -What is a considered as a good backtest?
21:09 -How much change is too much change?
28:50 -Our most important lesson in 2023
36:11 -What is the next phase of the fixed income trade?
46:01 -Geopolitics and looking into 2024
55:42 -Should we go all out diversification?
01:05:14 -Outrageous predictions for 2024
01:10:32 -Happy New Year!
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 30 Dec 2023 - 1h 12min - 1329 - GM54: "Weakflation" in 2024 ft. Gregory Peters
Greg Peters joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a global fixed income perspective on the evolving macro landscape. We hear why “weakflation” may be the most likely scenario for the US economy but that a the risk of recession is three times its typical level. Greg outlines what the secular shifts in the global economy such as the end of the era of secular stagnation, a stagnating China, stickier global inflation and higher return to labour, mean for the global economy and asset markets. We discuss the recent gyrations in then bond market, how the composition of demand for US Treasuries is changing and why Greg is not overly concerned about debt sustainability for the US economy. And we delve into the outlook for emerging markets and why Greg is constructive on the outlook for EM excluding China.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:42 -Introduction to Gregory Peters
05:15 -What types of portfolios PGIM Fixed Income running?
06:28 -Peters' perspective on the state of global macro
11:44 -Peters' response to the inverted curve
15:30 -Is Peters concerned about the U.S debt?
19:36 -Japanese investors in a tough spot
22:11 -Financial repression and domestic bias
24:11 -The yield is destiny
27:28 -What range are we operating in?
28:43 -Will inflation be stickier than we expect?
33:03 -The impact of a changing globalization
35:42 -Analyzing the poor productivity numbers
38:05 -The longer term outlook of the Chinese economy
42:54 -China as a potential component in a global fixed income portfolio
44:27 -Opportunities in emerging markets
46:47 -Peters' thoughts on the central bank response function
49:13 -How would central banks respond to a worst-case scenario?
51:29 -The possibilities of recession
56:19 -Advice for other investors
57:59 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 27 Dec 2023 - 59min - 1328 - SI275: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 1
Join us for part 1 of this special edition of Systematic Investor, where we are joined by all of our wonderful co-hosts for a group conversation. In this first part, we take a look back on 2023 and discuss how the year has been treating Trend Followers and CTAs at large. We also discuss volatility trading and value of adding non-trend strategies to your trend following, the outlook of the SG Trend Index and the challenge of classifying yourself in the trend following industry. Lastly, we discuss what you are looking for in a good backtest, how to approach making changes to your model and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on LinkedIn.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Richard on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:23 - Introduction to this special edition of Systematic Investor
03:07 - Looking back on 2023 and into 2024
13:06 - Let's talk about volatility
19:42 - Volatility from a banker's perspective
25:13 - The value of non-trend strategies and smooth returns
40:40 - What is going with the SG Trend Index?
50:20 - How trend followers classify themselves
01:02:00 - End of part 1
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Fri, 22 Dec 2023 - 1h 03min - 1327 - IL22: The Fund - The Other Side of Dalio & Bridgewater ft. Rob Copeland
In this episode we talk to Rob Copeland, New York Times reporter and author of the bestselling new book: The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates and the Unravelling of a Wall Street Legend. Bridgewater is the world’s largest hedge fund and its founder, Ray Dalio, claims to run his firm based on The Principles, rules for life and work that argue for complete honesty and transparency. His most famous Principle: Pain + Reflection = Progress. But Copeland, who has covered Bridgewater for years as a Wall Street Journal reporter paints a radically different picture. Instead of encouraging truth, Copeland’s book documents a rigged feedback system that keeps Dalio permanently at the top and a culture where fear of upsetting Dalio suppresses the truth rather than encourages it. Copeland also claims that Bridgewater’s investment process is far less systematic than it claims, with Dalio ‘calling the shots’. Bridgewater strongly disputes all of these conclusions.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Rob on LinkedIn andRead his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:10 -Introduction to Rob Copeland and his book
04:37 -Copelands's relation to Ray Dalio and how the book started
09:14 -How Copeland reacted to lawsuit threats
11:03 -The logic behind the "baseball cards" concept
13:03 -How Dalio interpreted and rigged the outcome of the baseball cards
14:52 -How well known was Dalio's "rigged" rankings?
16:06 -How did Dalio's "trial" methods work?
21:03 -What can we learn from Ray Dalio's principles?
23:12 -How the MC Cycle functioned
27:55 -What is Dalio's core skill?
29:46 -Did Dalio believe in his own principles?
33:03 -Why Copeland is comfortable with his narrative about Dalio?
38:00 -Why don't we see a bigger footprint from Bridgewater in the markets?
40:57 -Did Bridgewater investors not notice?
44:30 -Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 20 Dec 2023 - 46min
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