Filtrer par genre
RaboResearch Agri Commodities
Rabobank's RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness team has 85 analysts working in local teams across the worldwide Rabobank network. They generate knowledge, and develop views and insights on businesses, topics and developments in the food & agribusiness sectors across the globe. All analysts have their own sector specialisations—ranging from meat and fish to dairy, vegetables, fruit and floriculture, coffee and cocoa. Please read our disclaimer here: https://research.rabobank.com/markets/en/footer/disclaimer.html
- 88 - The cocoa rally explained
The cocoa rally shows no signs of slowing, with the London March24 contract up 58% YTD. Meanwhile, the New York contract set a new all-time high in the first half of February, surpassing, in nominal terms, the previous record set in 1977. Since then, prices have moved 20% higher! In this podcast, we discuss the factors contributing to this unprecedented price rally. In our view, recent price action is fundamentally driven by systemic production issues in West Africa that have led to an enormous supply deficit, the third in a row. Current market dynamics are incomparable to prior seasons, thus creating enormous panic among market participants.
Fri, 01 Mar 2024 - 14min - 87 - January 2024 WASDE: Disciplined consumers are rewarded
Last Friday the USDA released a catalogue of data: the January WASDE, quarterly grain stocks, and Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings. The releases were largely bearish and confirmed the views held in our 2024 outlook (Buyers sail home on rising supplies) of higher-than-expected production and weaker demand. Consumers who have been disciplined are now being rewarded in terms of lower global G&O prices.
Tue, 16 Jan 2024 - 18min - 86 - Grain & oilseed markets move south
Join Rabobank's Agri Commodity Markets Research team for a deep dive into grain and oilseed markets. Since our bearish 2024 outlook was published on November 15, grain and oilseed prices have slid as bargaining power continues to shift from farmers to consumers.
North American 2023 grain harvests are set to outpace demand and pad stockpiles, encouraging funds to take on heavy short positions. The risk premium is now largely in soybeans and South America, where more conducive weather (Brazil) and politics (Argentina) promise to deliver large supplies in 2024 and beyond.
Wed, 29 Nov 2023 - 16min - 85 - Bulls feed on old grain
The October WASDE was viewed as a bullish report by the market, with corn, soy, and wheat futures all rising following its release. For corn in particular, it was higher old crop feed demand that caught the market by surprise. Meanwhile, for wheat markets, we saw 2023/24 estimations for both global production and trade trimmed.
Mon, 16 Oct 2023 - 12min - 84 - Softs Rally Hard
Since the start of the year we have seen simultaneous rallies in sugar (+15%), cocoa (+28%), and robusta coffee (+47%). This is rather unusual given these three commodities have very different fundamentals and are produced in very different countries. The threat of El Niño-related weather challenges is the one common element that has led to speculators increasing their long bets across these three commodities. In this podcast, commodity analysts Paul Joules and Carlos Mera discuss the outlook going forward.
Fri, 30 Jun 2023 - 11min - 83 - April WASDE: USDA Cuts Argentine Yields
With minimum alterations for most countries, the April WASDE's main talking point was cuts in Argentine production for soybeans, wheat, and corn amid the ongoing drought. As these cuts were expected, we saw little price action following the report's release. Eyes will now turn to next month's WASDE, which will provide the first estimates of the 2023/24 season.
Thu, 13 Apr 2023 - 07min - 82 - Outlook 2023: Tightening the Belt
Join Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz for a look at the year ahead in ACMR's latest podcast. 2022 held unprecedented volatility for agricultural commodity markets, from the Russian invasion of Ukraine to La Niña drought across South America. Consumers suffered through a third year of an agricultural bull market. It could very well be the last. Rabobank expects broad-based price relief in 2023 as weak consumer demand and more normal weather combine to revive supplies.
Tue, 06 Dec 2022 - 13min - 81 - October 2022 WASDE: USDA Scissorhands
On the latest RaboResearch Agri Commodities podcast, Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz discuss the October WASDE report. Poor 2022/23 US grain and oilseed harvests are forcing the USDA to become increasingly adept with scissors. As it cuts production, the USDA must increasingly (and tragically) cut demand to prevent ending stockpiles from disappearing. Relative to expectations, the report was bearish on corn and bullish on soy, and it resulted in funds partially unwinding their corn/soy spread. The prime takeaway is that supply inflation is being increasingly controlled by weak, recession-linked demand.
Thu, 13 Oct 2022 - 10min - 80 - September WASDE: USDA’s Struggle Session
In the latest RaboResearch Agri Commodities episode, Global Grains & Oilseeds Strategist Steve Nicholson joins ACMR Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss the September WASDE. ACMR’s August WASDE Report predicted the USDA “may rue their bold move” to raise US soybean yields. Indeed, this week the USDA did a dramatic 180, cutting US soy (and corn) yields and reducing demand to avoid outright scarcity. A supply-side crisis will give corn and soybean bulls a strong foothold to climb higher – with Brazil as the primary near-term defense against desperate scarcity.
Fri, 16 Sep 2022 - 17min - 79 - Momentum
On the latest ACMR podcast, Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz and Analyst Paul Joules discuss the recent price movements in CBOT Corn, Wheat, and Soybean futures. Tune in to hear about the 2022/23 harvests, the latest WASDE report, funds bouncing back, and overarching demand-side concerns. From a supply standpoint, heavy heat across the US and Europe poses a significant risk to feed grain and oilseed production. For wheat, recent production improvements among exporters are slightly bearish; the USDA’s estimate of an 88m mt Russian crop (+6.5m mt MOM) in particular implies a low-cost producer can deliver near-term relief to the market, though questions remain about the longevity of this surplus.
Tue, 16 Aug 2022 - 14min - 78 - Funds in the Sun
Head of Agri Commodities Markets Research Carlos Mera and Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz discuss the recent pullback in CBOT Corn, Wheat, and Soybean prices. Tune in to hear about recent bearish dynamics: speculative capitulation, the worsening macroeconomic backdrop, shrinking demand, and the potential for a sea route for Ukrainian supplies.
From a supply standpoint, however, fundamentals are strong. Reserves for next year are set to remain well below historical averages, and heat is a major concern for developing northern hemisphere crops. Furthermore, long-repressed consumer demand is showing signs of renewed appetite on the price break.
Fri, 15 Jul 2022 - 17min - 77 - High G&O Prices Will Shrink China's Imports and DemandMon, 28 Feb 2022 - 16min
- 76 - The Ukraine Metacrisis and Its Impact on Agri Commodity Markets
Russia has been amassing troops around the Ukrainian border and making demands NATO cannot afford to meet. A potential invasion with far-reaching consequences for key agricultural commodities like wheat, barley, corn, and sunflower oil cannot be ruled out. A retaliatory blanket embargo could result in even higher agri commodity prices. Given the inelasticity of demand, wheat prices in particular could double, as Turkey, the Middle East, and northern Africa struggle to source wheat from elsewhere. Please read more about the Ukraine Metacrisis and visit our F&A research website for more information.
Tue, 01 Feb 2022 - 15min - 75 - Agri Commodities Outlook 2022, Part 2: Softs
Soft commodities have seen a price surge in 2021, with coffee topping the price change charts. Join ACMR’s Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz as they discuss the risks for coffee and sugar in 2022. Looking ahead, the development of La Niña in Brazil will be key for these commodities, while the container situation will be especially relevant for coffee.
Tue, 21 Dec 2021 - 11min - 74 - Agri Commodities Outlook 2022, Part 1: Grains & Oilseeds
Join ACMR’s Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz as they discuss the high price environment in G&O and the risks ahead for 2022. Wheat, feed grains and vegetable oils all hit multi-year highs in 2022 due to supply issues and strong demand. Looking ahead, the development of La Niña, high input costs and post-Covid demand threaten to keep supplies on the ropes and prices well supported.
Mon, 20 Dec 2021 - 15min - 73 - Halloween Special: More Tricks Than TreatsTue, 26 Oct 2021 - 11min
- 72 - September 2021 WASDE: Consumers Come in From the Cold
Last Friday, the USDA published a nominally bearish September WASDE report, with higher objective yields and acreage lifting US corn, soy, and cotton production and ending stocks. Yet, CBOT counterintuitively rallied in response as it became clear that increased G&O availability would be gobbled up by sidelined consumers.
Join Rabobank’s Michael Magdovitz and Andrew Rawlings as they deconstruct the latest WASDE report.
Tue, 14 Sep 2021 - 12min - 71 - EU ‘Fit for 55’ Carbon Reductions: What’s the Impact on Canola?
The European Commission has proposed ‘Fit for 55’, a package of policies aimed at reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030. What does this mean for biofuel and, consequently, canola demand? Our G&O analyst in Australia, Dennis Voznesenski, chats with Rabobank’s Global Strategist for Grains & Oilseeds, Stefan Vogel.
This episode also appears on our sister podcast RaboResearch F&A Australia & New Zealand
Wed, 18 Aug 2021 - 25min - 70 - Any Catches for Aussie Cotton?
The 2021/22 outlook for the Australian cotton sector appears bright in terms of production prospects and price. To find out if there are any catches, RaboResearch’s Agri Commodity Markets Cotton Analyst Andrew Rawlings joins Cheryl Kalisch Gordon of RaboResearch Australia to discuss the global market outlook and local Australian conditions.
This episode also appears on our sister podcast RaboResearch F&A Australia & New Zealand
Mon, 02 Aug 2021 - 23min - 69 - Heavy Rains Batter Europe as Harvest Gets Serious
First, we saw severe dryness in the western US and Canada, which continues. Now, we have heavy rains and even flooding across parts of Europe during harvest. Are these weather events a big deal? Dennis Voznesenski, Agricultural Analyst in Australia, is joined by Stefan Vogel, Global Strategist for Grains & Oilseeds based in Europe, to delve into the details.
Mon, 26 Jul 2021 - 19min - 68 - Acreage Gains Prove Hard to Make
In the wake of the USDA’s June Acreage and Stocks Reports, we discuss the likely impacts on G&O and cotton markets given the USDA’s latest estimates. Expectations for acreage gains were high given higher prices during plantings this season, but mixed weather across the US and stiff competition for acres between crops meant those gains were hard to achieve, especially in corn and soybeans. US June grain stocks also declined to a six-year low. With tighter stocks and lower-than-expected aggregate acreage for corn and soybeans, the pressure is on for good yields and good weather this season in the US.
Thu, 01 Jul 2021 - 13min - 67 - Export Tax Gains for Australian Croppers and Russian Shoppers
In a bid to reduce food price inflation, the Russian government put in place an export tax on grains & oilseeds in February. What impact will this have on Russian exports to Australia’s key export destinations? Vito Martielli, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Analyst covering Europe, Africa, & the Black Sea, and Dennis Voznesenski, Grains & Oilseeds Analyst in Australia, dive into the details.
Tue, 08 Jun 2021 - 13min - 66 - The Canola Files, Part 3: Golden Prices Flatten China’s DemandTue, 25 May 2021 - 23min
- 65 - FX and Inflation to Affect Agri Commodity Prices
The rise of commodity prices in the last year has been supported by the weakness of the US dollar and increasing inflation expectations. While the US dollar has an obvious link to commodity prices, the inflationary concerns are attracting more funds to commodities as they look for an inflation hedge. Jane Foley, head of FX strategy, joins Carlos Mera, head of Agri Commodity Markets Research, to discuss what's next for FX, inflation, and the economic recovery.
Wed, 12 May 2021 - 15min - 64 - Bears Come In From the Cold
In the latest installment of the RaboResearch Agri Commodities podcast, Stefan Vogel and Michael Magdovitz review the explosive grain & oilseed price dynamics entering the critical weather market. Soy and corn have breached USD 15 and USD 6 per bushel, respectively, amid adverse weather that has left bears coming in from the cold. Join Stefan and Michael as they comprehensively address acreage, yield, stocks, and industry prospects for the year ahead.
Mon, 26 Apr 2021 - 17min - 63 - Ukraine-Russia Crisis: Implications for Grains Markets
Over the last month, tensions in the Black Sea between Ukraine and Russia have boiled over. Troops from both sides have amassed on the border of eastern Ukraine, and now the Russian defense ministry has announced plans for blocking the Kerch Strait, a passageway connecting the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, for foreign war ships and other state ships. What does this mean, and what are the possible implications if escalation continues? Dennis Voznesenski, Grains & Oilseeds analyst, and Michael Every, Global Strategist for Economics and Markets, delve into the details.
Tue, 20 Apr 2021 - 14min - 62 - April WASDE: Market in the Middle
The April WASDE was destined to be overshadowed by its two explosive siblings – the March Prospective plantings and the new crop May WASDE. Nevertheless, the April WASDE contained important changes at the margins that help set the stage for broad upside price risks to corn, soy, wheat and cotton moving into the US weather market. Join the ACMR team as they discuss the WASDE report and price prospects for products in the months ahead.
Tue, 13 Apr 2021 - 11min - 61 - You Reap What You Sow
The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report came in far below expectations on corn and soy and heaped pressure on yields, whose weak performance would exacerbate seven-year high scarcity. CBOT G&O bears' expectations for an imminent G&O resupply have likely been dashed. Instead, consumers face growing trepidation ahead of an historic weather market and potential for scarcity to extend well into next year. Join ACMR’s Michael Magdovitz and Andrew Rawlings as they discuss the explosive report and the CBOT price risk factors for the coming months.
Thu, 08 Apr 2021 - 15min - 60 - The 2021 Outlook for China’s, India’s, and Southeast Asia’s Edible Oils
Lief Chiang and Oscar Tjakra join to discuss the 2021 outlook for edible oils in China, India, and Southeast Asia.
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Thu, 25 Mar 2021 - 18min - 59 - ICE #2 Cotton: On a Tear or Torn Apart?
After being ravaged by the pandemic, demand recovery expectations coupled with unrelenting Chinese imports led ICE#2 Cotton prices 30% higher than their pre-pandemic levels. Despite a recent sell-off, prices continue to trade at a premium – but how long can this continue? In this podcast, Agri Commodities Market Research and RaboResearch Australia converse on the current global supply and demand situation and the factors that could influence prices in the season ahead.
This episode also appears on our sister podcast RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness: Australia & New Zealand
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Tue, 23 Mar 2021 - 11min - 58 - Speculation in Commodities to Continue
Ryan Fitzmaurice, senior commodity strategist, joins Carlos Mera, head of agri commodities market research, to discuss speculation in commodities markets. Funds have reached some extreme positions in both energy and agriculture, and Rabobank analysts do not expect this to stop, as persistently low interest rates and inflation concerns continue to lead funds to invest more into commodities.
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Mon, 22 Mar 2021 - 07min - 57 - Softs | Agri Commodities Outlook 2021: Bull Waves Don’t Break
The 2020 bull run in agri commodities defied all expectations and proved immune to Covid-19’s economic and social consequences. This is particularly true for grains and oilseeds. The engines driving this rally are expected to continue into 2021: weather, speculators, and good import demand. However, when it comes to softs, we see prices still suffering from good production and precarious demand.
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Thu, 03 Dec 2020 - 10min - 56 - G&O | Agri Commodities Outlook 2021: Bull Waves Don’t Break
The 2020 bull run in agri commodities defied all expectations and proved immune to Covid-19’s economic and social consequences. This is particularly true for grains and oilseeds. The engines driving this rally are expected to continue into 2021: weather, speculators, and good import demand. However, when it comes to softs, we see prices still suffering from good production and precarious demand.
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Thu, 03 Dec 2020 - 11min - 55 - Halloween Special: Scary Wheat Prices, Ghostly Chocolate Prices, and Spooky Sugar Prices
The prospect of children coughing at your door may be scary enough at the moment, but there is also a lot of fear in agri commodity markets. In this special edition podcast, we explore some of the worst-case scenarios that could lead to higher prices for wheat, cocoa, and sugar markets. This Halloween may not see many treats, but there could be plenty of tricks.
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Mon, 26 Oct 2020 - 12min - 54 - Oil Heats Up, and Farmers Get Cooking
Vegetable prices surged near YTD highs last month, buoyed by strong demand and lower production. Join Rabobank’s Oscar Tjakra and Michael Magdovitz as they analyze MDE Palm Oil and CBOT Soy Oil supply & demand fundamentals and the price risks ahead. Can the Q3 2020 momentum be sustained? Will slowing demand and stronger supply prospects cool the rally? Michael and Oscar discuss these points and their price outlooks on the podcast.
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Fri, 25 Sep 2020 - 14min - 53 - Sweet, Sweet Speculation: How Funds Are Supporting Sugar
Carlos Mera joins Charlie Clack to address the growing presence of speculative activity in soft commodity markets – including sugar – and the reasons why. The duo look at how this – along with the fundamental outlook – is set to drive the sugar price.
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Thu, 10 Sep 2020 - 16min - 52 - Opportunity Awaits the ‘Bolled’ and Brave – A Ten-Year Outlook for Cotton
Charlie Clack joins Oscar Tjakra to talk opportunities in global cotton over the next decade, following our latest RaboResearch report. On the agenda this episode is the post-pandemic demand recovery, world consumption growth to 2029/30, and opportunities for cotton producers and exporters around the globe.
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Thu, 03 Sep 2020 - 14min - 51 - G&O Market Update July 2020
In this G&O market update we cover the main drivers leading price moves across Corn, Soybean and Wheat markets. The weather has begun to show a greater influence on G&O markets in recent weeks as corn and spring wheat crops move through key development stages. At the time of writing, CBOT Corn prices have eased after an initial rally following lower than expected US stocks and planted acreage and misplaced expectations of threatening weather in the Midwest. Meanwhile, CBOT Wheat prices have rallied as Russian winter wheat yields come in lower-than-expected and hot weather in the forecast is putting spring wheat crops at risk. CBOT Soybeans has mostly followed corn in recent weeks but as soybeans begin their key development stages, weather and Chinese export demand will be key.
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Thu, 16 Jul 2020 - 20min - 50 - Coffee Outlook Q2 2020
While the supply side is not without concerns, demand has been dropping due to Covid-19. For now, harvests are going ahead more or less normally in top producer Brazil and also in Colombia. We expect global demand to drop by 0.8% YOY, the first drop in global coffee demand since 1995. The precariousness of demand in certain coffee markets continues to be the focus of attention, particularly in markets where people are used to drinking tea at home and in markets with increasing unemployment but low benefits.
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Mon, 08 Jun 2020 - 12min - 49 - May 2020 G&O Market Update
Brent Crude recovered over 30% so far in May, pushing vegetable oil prices higher. Soy and corn remained subdued in the midst of an abundance of US stocks, good weather, and rapidly progressing US plantings. In particular for soybeans, the pace of Brazilian shipments continues to surprise, with the volumes of US soybeans bought by China a little lackluster in the middle of the worsening rhetoric. The rather positive USDA expectations for US 2020/21 soybean exports will require a strong commitment from China, but reading the Twitter feed offers no assurances about this. Good European and Black Sea weather in the forecast is stabilizing the prospects for wheat production, but there is still a long way to go before the situation improves.
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Thu, 04 Jun 2020 - 15min - 48 - CBOT Springs a Leak – Agri Commodity Markets Monthly April 2020
April witnessed unprecedented weakness in the energy sector and in emerging market currencies. Agri commodities markets were infected by these factors and continued their downward trend. Meanwhile, the threat of supply chains disruptions largely eased, as agricultural activities avoided major port and border closures, and the price risks shifted to demand destruction. Looking ahead, the spring plantings in the US are proceeding well but have the potential to bring volatility.
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Thu, 30 Apr 2020 - 14min - 47 - Havoc in the Hamper, Hell in the Handbasket
Join the ACMR team as they discuss the wild ag commodity price swings amid market concerns for demand destruction and supply chain stability. For energy-related products like sugar, soy oil, palm oil, and corn, the energy price declines – resulting from Covid-19 and the internecine OPEC price war – are expected to cause substantial demand destruction for biodiesel and ethanol. For vital food and feed products like wheat, coffee, and soymeal, stockpiling and supply chain concerns are driving unusual strong backwardation.
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Thu, 26 Mar 2020 - 17min - 46 - Slow Recovery: Coronavirus Will Extend the Feed-Demand Hangover
China G&O analyst Lief Chiang and ACMR analyst Michael Magdovitz discuss the spread of coronavirus and the threat it poses to already fragile Chinese and global feed demand. Lief and Michael then consider the implications of coronavirus on China’s 'phase-one' trade deal compliance, US summer plantings, and CBOT Corn and Soybean prices through 2020.
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Mon, 02 Mar 2020 - 15min - 45 - What Brexit Could Mean for Global Sugar
Brexit is anticipated to have far-reaching impacts around the world, with many industries – including sugar – feeling the effects. Charlie Clack and Maria Afonso join forces to see if Brexit could, however, also translate into opportunities for the world’s major sugar exporters.
This podcast episode also appears on our sister podcast RaboResearch F&A Australia/New Zealand
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Mon, 02 Mar 2020 - 15min - 44 - Is Sugar's Sweet Start to 2020 Here to Stay?
Sugar prices have gained ground in 2020, owing to a catalogue of reasons including speculative buying and global supply and demand. Carlos Mera joins Charlie Clack to outline the reasons, risks, and outlook for the year ahead. This episode also appears on our RaboResearch F&A Australia & New Zealand sister podcast
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Mon, 10 Feb 2020 - 16min - 43 - US-China: Phase One
What does 'phase one' mean for US agriculture? Is it a return to normal, or is the old normal gone for good? RaboResearch grain & oilseed analysts Erin FitzPatrick and Steve Nicholson talk through some possibilities with Andrew Tasker from Rabobank's Markets team.
This episode originally appeared on our RaboResearch F&A North America sister podcast
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Wed, 05 Feb 2020 - 14min - 42 - Coffee Rally Keeps Traders Awake and Farmers Happy
Arabica coffee prices rallied 40% in the last two months on the back of a frantic speculative rally. This is in sharp contrast to the low-price trend seen over the last two years, in which coffee prices traded below cost of production. Commodity analysts Carlos Mera and Andrew Rawlings discuss the reasons for the rally and where it may lead.
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Thu, 19 Dec 2019 - 10min - 41 - Hot Oil: Vegetable Oil Prices Rise to the Top
The vegetable oil complex has enjoyed strong price increases in 2019. In this ACMR podcast episode, grain & oilseed analysts Oscar Tjakra and Michael Magdovitz review vegetable oil market fundamentals and price catalysts for CBOT Soy Oil, MDE Palm Oil, and Matif Rapeseed. Listen in as Oscar and Michael share Rabobank’s price outlook for vegetable oils in 2020.
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Tue, 17 Dec 2019 - 12min - 40 - Upsides in a Burdened Global Grain Market
Rabobank’s Global G&O Strategist, Stefan Vogel, joins Australian-based Senior G&O Analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon to talk grains. They discuss where we expect upside in a market burdened by supply and trade war troubles, what might undermine that upside, and what this means in the context of Australia’s 2019/20, again, drought-affected grain harvest.
This episode also appeared on our sister podcast RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness Australia/New Zealand
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Wed, 06 Nov 2019 - 25min - 39 - Sugar: Volatility Ahead
In this joint Rabobank ACMR & FAR Australia podcast, South-East Asia Sugar expert Charles Clack joins ACMR senior analyst Carlos Mera to discuss the outlook for sugar prices. While the current glut in the market is manifested in heavy deliveries of both raws and whites, the market is turning towards a global deficit in 2019/20. The drop in estimates for the 2019/20 crops in Thailand, India and the EU stands in sharp contrast to the record net short position held on London #5 (whites) futures contracts, which will likely lead to higher volatility ahead.
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Fri, 23 Aug 2019 - 16min - 38 - Oops!... WASDE Did It Again!
Two months after publishing a planting intentions report that was viewed as overstating US Corn acreage, the USDA completed a second survey that confirmed its initial findings, increased yields, and left the market shocked and deflated. Join Rabobank’s Agri Commodities Markets Research Team as they discuss the latest WASDE report results, and their wider significance across grain & oilseeds markets for the year ahead.
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Wed, 14 Aug 2019 - 10min - 37 - The Impact of ASF on Chinese Feed Demand
In this joint Rabobank ACMR & FAR Asia podcast, G&O expert Lief Chiang joins ACMR analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss his outlook for China’s soymeal and feed usage through 2020. In 2019, African Swine Fever-related culling of up to 50% of China’s hog herd, with further downside possible, will reduce soybean imports and meal usage year-on-year. Reductions will be muted and short-lived, however, relative to hog and feed usage losses, thanks to a combination of higher feed inclusion rates of low-cost (relative to alternative meals) soymeal, increased demand from poultry and aquaculture, and others. By 2020, Lief expects soybean imports to resume a modest growth, even without a US-China trade deal, although import volumes will remain below their historic highs. The podcast concludes with a supply-side review of corn and soybeans, with Michael providing a review of Rabobank’s 2019/20 US production estimates and a view on whether the crop could see supply-side reductions sufficient to offset the demand weakness from China and in turn support CBOT prices.
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Thu, 01 Aug 2019 - 10min - 36 - US Weather Gets Rough – The USDA Gets Tough
A month of persistent rain across the Midwest kept corn farmers out of the fields and forced the USDA to do an about-face on their heavy 2019/20 balance sheet projections, cutting carry-out by 810m bu, the largest monthly decline in 30 years. With wet weather in the forecast, additional production downgrades are possible – for corn and soybeans. In this week’s ACMR podcast episode, G&O analyst Michael Magdovitz talks to ACMR head and G&O global strategist Stefan Vogel about the June WASDE changes, along with the risks ahead for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Join Michael and Stefan as they evaluate the potential weather premium relative to global grain & oilseed availability, and hear their price risk bias going forward.
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Fri, 14 Jun 2019 - 13min - 35 - Heavy US Rains, Buoyant Prices
Join Stefan Vogel, head of ACMR and global G&O strategist, as he comments on the excessive rainfall across the US, which caused an impressive price rally of over 20% in CBOT Corn and Wheat. While rains delays US corn plantings and will likely result in an unprecedented record number of unplanted acres, US wheat quality is at risk.
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Fri, 31 May 2019 - 13min - 34 - The Impact of the IMO 2020 Regulation on the Grains & Oilseeds Industry
On 1 January 2020, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) will implement a 0.5% global sulphur cap for marine fuels. With less than a year to go, there are still uncertainties about the global availability of low sulphur marine fuels needed to fulfil this regulation. This regulation is implemented for the marine industry but also impacts the grains and oilseed industry. Oscar Tjakra joins Charlie Clack to chat about the impact of the regulation on the grains and oilseeds value chain and what industry participants can do about it.
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Fri, 17 May 2019 - 17min - 33 - The Rise of Brazilian Cotton: A Good Yarn?
Brazil has rapidly risen to become one of the world’s largest cotton production and export regions. Victor Ikeda joins Charlie Clack from São Paulo to chat about the rise of the cotton industry there... and what this could mean for Australia going forward.
This episode appeared earlier on our Australia/New Zealand sister channel
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Thu, 09 May 2019 - 16min - 32 - Trade Optimism Shaken by US Tariff Escalation
From early November until last week, CBOT markets enjoyed a US-China trade war hiatus as China initiated goodwill purchases of US agricultural goods, the US withheld tariff hikes, and both sides sought a negotiated settlement. ACMR analyst Michael Magdovitz and G&O analyst Lief Chiang discuss how that calm was shattered by Sunday's statement from President Trump to raise tariffs on Chinese goods. Join Michael and Lief to hear about the near-term impacts and price risks from this latest trade war escalation.
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Tue, 07 May 2019 - 11min - 31 - What Lies Ahead in 2019/20 for Grains & Oilseeds?
ACMR Head and G&O Sector Strategist Stefan Vogel joins ACMR Analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss the recent price breaks in wheat, corn, and soybeans, along with some thoughts ahead of the USDA’s first 2019/20 WASDE in early May. Stefan and Michael discuss bearish G&O catalysts, including fierce export competition, the African swine fever epidemic, generally positive global crop conditions, and a record non-commercial net short.
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Tue, 30 Apr 2019 - 13min - 30 - Coffee Wars: Brazil Is Winning
Arabica coffee prices are at 13-year lows. At only USc 90/lb, arabica prices are now below cost of production in virtually all arabica-producing countries aside from Brazil – and over 10m coffee farmers will be working themselves into poverty. Senior Commodity Analyst Carlos Mera talks about his supply/demand expectations, the fundamental risks surrounding the coffee market, and what can be done to alleviate the situation.
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Thu, 18 Apr 2019 - 14min - 29 - Trade War Special: China’s 55 Billion Dollar F&A Wish List
In the latest episode of the ACMR podcast, China G&O expert Lief Chiang joins ACMR Analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss China’s potential F&A shopping list under a trade deal. Amid reports that China has offered to more than double its pre-trade-war purchases to 55bn USD, Lief runs through the products besides soybeans that would strategically benefit China, including corn ethanol to achieve the E10 mandate, pork, beef, seafood, and spring wheat. He also discusses the time span for reaching those purchase levels. The podcast concludes with Michael's view on whether the US could supply an additional 30bn USD in F&A goods and the potential impact of such an increase for US farmers.
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Fri, 01 Mar 2019 - 11min - 28 - WASDE: Counting Stocks Amid Trade Talks
Join Stefan Vogel (ACMR Head and G&O Global Strategist) and Michael Magdovitz (ACMR Analyst) as they discuss the latest WASDE, US stocks, and winter plantings reports.
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Tue, 12 Feb 2019 - 10min - 27 - January 2019: Grains and Oilseeds - Smooth Ride, but Flying Blind
Geopolitics and weather risk upside are driving G&O prices higher, after a relatively steady month in January. Michael Magdovitz and Charlie Clack discuss navigating these markets amid the US government shutdown and unpredictable Brazilian weather. The major question is whether Chinese guarantees can facilitate a deal before March 1st trade tariff deadline—Rabobank sees short-term upside, but for how long?
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Fri, 01 Feb 2019 - 23min - 26 - January 2019: Smooth Ride, but Flying Blind – Softs markets
So far, January has reflected the higher risk appetite, with Brent surging and the Brazilian real gaining versus the US dollar. Charlie Clack and Carlos Mera chat about the latest ICE Coffee, Sugar, and Cotton markets, outlining Rabobank’s fundamental and price outlooks for the season ahead.
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Wed, 30 Jan 2019 - 17min - 25 - The G20 Trade War Truce
During the G20 meeting in Argentina, US President Donald Trump agreed to freeze tariff increases on China for a period of 90 days to allow trade negotiators to proceed in good faith. During that hiatus, Premier Xi agreed to resume importing substantial quantities of US food & agriculture products into China that were largely frozen by both tariff & non-tariff measures. Rabobank’s F&A China industry analyst Lief Chiang joins ACMR G&O analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss the potential demand pickup from China, strategic aspects of the deal and the near-to-medium impact on soybean prices.
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Fri, 07 Dec 2018 - 14min - 24 - Soft Commodities Outlook for 2019: Trade War Turbulence, With Softs Landing
Carlos Mera and Charles Clack discuss what’s in store for soft commodity markets—including sugar, coffee and cotton—in the year ahead, as highlighted in their latest report, Outlook 2019: Trade War Turbulence, With Softs Landing. Global production prospects, along with currency and geopolitical shifts provide the backdrop to Rabobank’s 2019 price outlook.
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Fri, 23 Nov 2018 - 19min - 23 - Grains & Oilseeds Outlook for 2019: Trade War Turbulence, With Softs Landing
Michael Magdovitz and Charles Clack talk over the big price drivers for major grain & oilseed markets in 2019, as highlighted in their latest report, Outlook 2019: Trade War Turbulence, With Softs Landing. Trade wars, acreage shifts and major weather risks and just a few of the topics which come into the spotlight.
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Thu, 22 Nov 2018 - 16min - 22 - Will the World Buy Big US Supplies?
Weakened emerging market currencies and strong US summer crop yields held agri commodity prices in check, despite declining balance sheets and ongoing trade discussions. Michael Magdovitz and Charles Clack talk the latest price & fundamental outlooks for wheat, corn, soybeans, sugar and coffee.
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Fri, 31 Aug 2018 - 17min - 21 - Rabobank European Grains Tour | Focus On Ukraine
The Rabobank European Grains Tour recently returned from the Netherlands, Germany and Ukraine. On this podcast, Senior Grains and Oilseeds Analyst Vito Martielli is joined by Moora & Dalwallinu Branch Manager Michael Monaghan to discuss the Ukraine and what makes it a big competitor to Australian wheat in global markets.
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Mon, 20 Aug 2018 - 20min - 20 - The WASDE Reveals Big US Yields
Charlie Clack and Michael Magdovitz highlight the crucial figures outlined in the latest August WASDE report, what this means for global G&O markets and what is in store for the future.
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Thu, 16 Aug 2018 - 11min - 19 - Argentina Agribusiness Outlook
In a recent visit to Argentina, Stefan Vogel, Adolfo Fontes and Victor Ikeda had an unique opportunity to discuss the G&O and Animal Protein sectors with local players. In this podcast, our analysts present expected trends for the Argentine agribusiness in the coming years.
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Tue, 14 Aug 2018 - 10min - 18 - Agri Commodities Monthly May 2018: Tread (the Volatility) Carefully
Weather risks, USD strength, and geopolitical instability are driving volatility in grains and oilseeds with cumulative open interest in agriculture at record levels. Charlie Clack and Carlos Mera review Rabobank's latest price outlooks on the major agri futures markets, including wheat, soybeans, coffee and cotton.
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Mon, 04 Jun 2018 - 12min - 17 - A Palm Storm is Brewing
Senior analyst Oscar Tjakra discusses the palm oil price outlook for 2018 and the latest developments in the South-East Asian palm oil industry. Palm oil production is set to decrease in South-East Asia post-2021, due to land moratorium and slow replanting.
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Tue, 29 May 2018 - 05min - 16 - Don’t Fall Asleep Behind The Risk Management Wheel
Sterling Liddell and Bill Nickrent discuss the risks for the corn market related to declining stocks and remarkably low planted acres planned for 2018.
This podcast episode was originally released on our North American podcast channel RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness North America. Rabo Agrifinance is Rabobank Group's agricultural finance department in North America.
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Mon, 30 Apr 2018 - 07min - 15 - Agri Commodities Monthly February 2018: Renewed Appetite for Ag Markets
Heightened weather risks, US dollar weakness, and global growth optimism drive new-found interest in agri commodity markets. Charlie Clack and Carlos Mera discuss Rabobank's latest price outlooks on the major global agri commodity markets for sugar, wheat and soybeans. View the full report here
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Tue, 06 Mar 2018 - 08min - 13 - Soft Commodities Outlook for 2018—Good Buy, Low Prices
Carlos Mera and Charles Clack discuss what’s in store for soft commodity markets in the year ahead, as highlighted in their latest report, Outlook 2018—Good Buy, Low Prices. Global consumption trends, production prospects, and currency shifts provide the backdrop to an optimistic price outlook.
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Wed, 22 Nov 2017 - 12min - 12 - Grains & Oilseeds Outlook for 2018: Good Buy, Low Prices
Graydon Chong and Charles Clack talk over the big price drivers for major grain & oilseed markets in 2018, as highlighted in their latest report, Outlook 2018—Good Buy, Low Prices. Tightening balance sheets, major weather risks, and shifting trade flows come into the spotlight.
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Wed, 22 Nov 2017 - 10min - 11 - EU Sugar Shake-Up
As of 1 October, the new EU sugar regime is in place, creating opportunities and challenges for various stakeholders in Europe and beyond. RaboResearch analyst Ruud Schers discusses the key rules of the new regime, along with its main implications for farmers and sugar producers. Plus we look at the impact this will have on the market, including Rabobank's outlook for 2017/18.
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Tue, 10 Oct 2017 - 08min - 10 - Agri Commodities Monthly September 2017: Watching, Waiting, Yield Debating
The S&P Agri Index has remained virtually unchanged so far in September, despite an increase of 10% in Brent crude prices. Softs saw some volatility, with cotton down 8% and coffee arabica up 4%. Going forward, the market will look at the US harvest for confirmation on the high expected yields, while South American plantings will shed light on the extent of the switch from corn to soybeans.
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Wed, 04 Oct 2017 - 06min - 9 - Agri Commodities Monthly August 2017: Uphill Struggles Ahead
Agri commodity analysts Graydon Chong and Charles Clack discuss market dynamics for key agri commodities such as corn, soybeans, wheat, sugar and cotton. The S&P Agri Index has continued to decline throughout August, with bearish sentiment exacerbated in grains, oilseeds, and cotton by the latest August WASDE report. Coffee, sugar, and cocoa have also all traded lower through August, leading us to take a fresh look at our agri commodity price outlooks.
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Fri, 25 Aug 2017 - 05min - 8 - Agri Commodities Monthly July 2017: Weather Volatility Ahead
Agri commodity analysts Graydon Chong and Carlos Mera discuss market dynamics for key agri commodities such as wheat, sugar, corn, and coffee. As we move to the critical growing phase of US grains & oilseeds, we see a lot of weather volatility ahead. The S&P agri index remained virtually unchanged in July. Sugar and arabica coffee were well supported by a 4.9% appreciation of the Brazilian real during the period, but the wheat rally came to a halt.
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Wed, 26 Jul 2017 - 04min - 7 - Agri Commodities Markets Review, June 2017
Rabobank has just released its Agri Commodities Markets Report for June 2017. In this podcast we highlight a few of the report's commodities. This month: Corn, soybeans and sugar.
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Fri, 23 Jun 2017 - 04min - 6 - Mid-June Wheat Market Update
Rabobank takes a look at spring wheat prices in the US. These have increased substantially over the last four weeks, reaching a one-year high due to crop concerns after hot and dry weather hit key production areas in the Northern Plains.
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Wed, 14 Jun 2017 - 09min - 5 - Agri Commodities Markets Review, May 2017
In this episode, Global Strategist Stefan Vogel discusses the highlights of the Agri Commodity Markets Research (ACMR) monthly report of May 2017, available on the RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness website. The S&P Agri Index remained unchanged so far in May, with the US Dollar Index down 2%. Startling political developments in Brazil caused a 3% depreciation in the Brazilian real and a 5% depreciation in the Argentine peso—but the influence on commodity prices has been limited. With the monsoon arriving in Asia and El Niño still a possibility, we expect more weather volatility around the corner.
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Fri, 26 May 2017 - 07min - 4 - Coming off a Sugar High: What's Next for Growers?
After witnessing softening international sugar prices through 2017, Andy Duff provides his view on the market dynamics that drive these movements and, most importantly, what’s in store for the coming season. Here in Australia, we come to terms with a challenging and uncertain 2017 for many growers.
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Wed, 24 May 2017 - 22min - 3 - The Olive Oil Boom: Short Supply Leads to Premium Prices
Global olive oil prices are rising sharply as a result of supply issues in Europe and the Mediterranean region. Grains & Oilseeds analyst Vito Martielli signals the latest developments in key producing countries, while also taking a look at global demand, along with asking just what differentiates traditional and new consumer markets.
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Fri, 19 May 2017 - 06min - 2 - Global Grain & Oilseed Markets — Near-Term Outlook, 17 May 2017
Rabobank’s London-based Agri Commodity Market Research team provides insights into the current market environment—reviewing where prices are right now and what drove them there, but also offering its take on what the core drivers for these markets will be in the coming weeks and months.
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Wed, 17 May 2017 - 11min - 1 - South-East Asia Palm Oil Outlook 2017
In the latest edition of our podcast, senior analyst Oscar Tjakra discusses the palm oil price outlook, the latest developments in the South-East Asian palm oil industry as well as potential risks for the industry in the near- to mid-term. The podcast also runs through the conclusions of Rabobank’s benchmarking exercise for listed palm oil companies in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore.
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Fri, 12 May 2017 - 09min
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