The Loonie Hour

The Federal government proposes an empty land tax. Former BoC deputy governor says 50bps cut is coming. Oil prices move higher along with long term bond yields. US CPI comes in hotter than expected. Central banks easing globally into higher inflation? 

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
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Central banks are aggressively easing and liquidity measures are turning up. Geopolitical conflict is ramping up, putting upwards pressure on oil prices, could this stoke another wave of inflation? Toronto and Vancouver Real Estate see rising inventory levels despite lower rates. 

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

Get your travel data sorted with Saily and enjoy smooth, safe, and reliable internet access while you're away in over 150 countries!
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OSFI removes mortgage stress test on renewals. The BC Government will help you buy a home. Has Canadian energy peaked? Microsoft bets big on Nuclear energy and AI. The Chinese have fired the liquidity bazooka to try and revive its economy. 

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

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The federal government shocks the market by pushing CMHC insured mortgages up to $1.5M. The Bank of Canada finally gets inflation back down to 2%. The Federal Reserve surprises markets, cuts rates by 50bps. 

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

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The unemployment rate moves higher. Rental and housing market continues to soften. The ECB cuts rates, more to come as the German economy weakens. US CPI comes in hotter than expected ahead of the Fed meeting next week. 

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

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The BoC cuts rates again, cautions home prices could rise. NDP kills the coalition with the liberal government, is a federal election coming soon? Rents falling in University cities, mortgage rates drift lower. US job market weakens as stock market wobbles.

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

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Loonie Hour in Ottawa!
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The Liberal government says they will change the temporary foreign worker program to slow immigration further. More signs of a weakening labour market. Canadian banks write off more bad loans. Toronto new home sales plunge to levels we've never seen before. Net zero without Chinese EV's. 

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

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Loonie Hour in Ottawa!
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Canada CPI inflation comes in lower, cementing another rate cut from the Bank of Canada. Economist and political insider Dr. Mike Moffatt explains how housing and immigration went so wrong, so quickly, and how to fix it. US jobs data gets revised nearly 1 million jobs lower ahead of Powell speech.

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
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The UN accuses Canada's foreign worker program as modern slavery. The feds will convert these low skill immigrants to permanent residency status. Real Estate insolvencies surge to highest levels in more than two decades. Consensus calls for more rate cuts from the BoC and the Fed.

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
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The Yen carry trade blows up after BoJ announces surprise rate hike. Markets call for immediate rate cuts. AirBnb data in Canada suggests governments are misguided. Temporary foreign workers surge, pushing youth unemployment higher. 

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
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Was the devastation of Jasper National Park avoidable? Who's to blame? What ails the Canadian economy, and how to cut the green tape. Lowering emissions globally will require Canadian LNG. Bond yields tumble, Fed set to cut, financial markets are moving.

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
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The BoC cut rates, highlighting excess supply and concerns over a weakening labour market. The Canadian dollar continues to weaken, with more rate cuts expected. US GDP came in stronger than expected, perhaps delaying any rate cuts in the US. Repo issues brewing in Canada, suggesting collateral concerns are growing at some banks.

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

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Twinkie bets are live! Markets are calling for a rate cut next week and more to come. Lagging shelter inflation could bring CPI even lower. More pain to come for Real Estate developers. Political volatility is increasing. The death of ESG and DEI? 

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

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Foreign direct investment has turned negative in China as capital leaves. The property market is wobbling and threatens to bring deflation to the rest of the world. The devalued Japanese Yen is creating headaches for the Chinese manufacturing sector. What are the implications for Canadians?

Loonie Hour Social in Montreal Tickets: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/loonie-hour-montreal-social-july-18-tickets-941728173317?aff=oddtdtcreator

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

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Home sales in Vancouver & Toronto plummet. Policy makers are doubling down on bad policy. Stories of financial stress are mounting. ISM services index falls to levels last seen during the depths of the pandemic. The presidential election heats up. 

Tickets to Montreal Loonie Hour Social: https://www.eventbrite.ca/e/loonie-hour-montreal-social-july-18-tickets-941728173317?aff=oddtdtcreator

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

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Rent inflation surged pushing the CPI basket higher. The Liberals lose an important by election in Toronto. Will JT resign? Toronto new home sales fall off a cliff. The labour market weakens for new immigrants. The Japanese yen continues to roll lower, a key signpost for the global sovereign debt bubble.

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

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Cities are taking housing accelerator funds and then raising development fees to crush supply. Canada's population surges again. Living standards have not improved in 7 years. Government muzzles oil and gas companies from promoting fossil fuels. Speculators have a record short position on the loonie. 

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

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US CPI data came in softer than expected but that didn't sway the fed. Projections now call for one cut this year. Producer prices are outright declining. Canadian housing can't be fixed, surging taxes killing development. The pendulum is swinging to the right as voters reject the status quo. 

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

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Bank of Canada slashes interest rates, suggests more to come. The ECB also cuts rates, is the Fed next? Economic data is now softening in the US. Why this probably won't save the Canadian housing market. Private debt fund in Canada halts redemptions in a sign of things to come. Foreign interference corruption in Ottawa.

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

Calgary Social Hour Event:June 13th
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We are joined by BMO's chief economist Doug Porter. The Bank of Canada will cut, probably in June. Don't expect bond yields or fixed mortgage rates to budge. Inflation is nearly defeated in Canada but not the US. Weak investment in Canada to continue with capital gains increases.

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.

BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

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CPI drops back within the Bank of Canada's target range, will it be enough for a cut in June? Population growth surges with some cities growing more than 6%. AirBnb bans will hit the tourism sector in some Canadian cities. 

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.

BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

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US CPI cooled last month, along with retail sales. Canadian job numbers surprise to the upside giving further hesitation for the Bank of Canada. Banning China EV's, batteries and solar panels despite the war on climate change? Financial Markets drift higher. 

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.

BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

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Governments are broke, and central banks are trying to maintain the illusion of stability. The next decade will not be like the last one, prepare for volatility. Inflation, interest rates, and political risks abound. House prices have created massive inequality and threaten social stability. Where do we go from here, and how do we plan for the central bank endgame? This week's interview with special guest Grant Williams. 

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.

BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

Check out Grant William's Work and Podcast Here: https://www.grant-williams.com/ 

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The Japanese Yen has fallen almost 50% against the US dollar since 2020. Attempts to intervene are failing. The USD needs to go lower through Fed easing. The Bank of Canada desperately wants to cut. GDP on a per capita basis is still contracting. Mortgage renewals finally starting to bite?

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.

BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

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How China is interfering in federal elections in Canada, spreading fentanyl, and exacerbating a housing crisis. Special interview with independent journalist Sam Cooper. Check out Sam's book, Willful Blindness. We also discuss markets pricing out fed rate cuts, weak Canadian retail sales, and stagflation concerns. 

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The federal government dropped their latest budget which predicts no recession and falling interest rates. Will this make the Bank of Canada's job more difficult? Increased capital gains taxes will come with consequences, particularly for entrepreneurs. Who is really running the show in Ottawa? Robert Asselin, former economic advisor to finance minister Morneau joins the podcast. 

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

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This week's episode we are joined by Chace Barber of Edison Motors to discuss the government grant scandal impacting their EV truck company. We then discuss US inflation, surging bond yields, desperate housing policy changes.

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BMO Global Asset Mgmt, November 2023. Based on $11billion in AUM in ZSP and ZSP.U.
BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP | BMO Global Asset Management (bmogam.com)

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Government spending pouring fuel on the fire at the Bank of Canada. Bond yields pushing higher as growing concerns over fewer rate cuts. Oil continues to climb higher. Are financial markets getting complacent?

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Immigration Minister announces big cuts to population growth. How will this slow the economy and rents? Rabidoux thinks the Bank of Canada will have to cut rates more than expected. OSFI keeps the mortgage stress test on lender switches. Trudeau announces renters bill of rights. 

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Check out Ben Rabidoux's work at Edge Analytics Research: https://edgeanalytics.ca/

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Canadian house prices bounce higher. Inflation dips in Canada. Central banks around the world are preparing to cut rates as commodity prices jump and financial markets rip. The Federal Government starts buying mortgage bonds. 

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Premiers across the country are demanding Trudeau to pause the Carbon tax increase. US inflation jumps on higher producer prices. The crypto bull market is back. Rich takes the helm at the Bank of Canada.

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Business insolvencies are surging. Mortgage arrears are climbing, albeit coming off record lows. The Bank of Canada holds rates. Federal Government attempting to mandate allocation of pension dollars. Markets awaiting US jobs data this week.

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Tiff Macklem is on deck next week. Bitcoin hits record highs in Canadian dollars. Financial conditions are easing, pushing US equities and inflation higher. Canadian banks report earnings, the mortgage renewal wall is still a very big problem. GDP per capita declines for the sixth straight quarter. 

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Commodity prices are falling, interest rates are up, and government policy is hurting Canadian farmer profits. Inflation in Canada plummets as retail sales slide. More politicians are looking for rate cuts. Troubles are mounting at European banks. 

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CPI inflation came in hot once again in the US. Bond yield volatility surges. Markets removing rate cut expectations. Recessions in Japan and the UK. Construction costs in Canada are finally coming down. The $60M ArriveScam issue. The carbon tax rebrands. 

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US jobs numbers come in hotter than expected, boosting bond yields higher. Jerome Powell speaks on 60 minutes interview. Canadians could be jailed for promoting the benefits of oil and gas. China is experiencing deflation, deepening financial woes. Commercial property bust leaks into Europe. 

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Commercial Real Estate is dragging global banks lower. Powell pushes back rate cuts. The return of bidding wars in the housing market? Europe is drifting towards deflation. China property crisis deepens, Evergrande to liquidate holdings.

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Bank of Canada holds rates, but signals transition. Federal Government caps immigration of foreign students. Business bankruptcies in Canada are soaring. US GDP comes in hot, defies recession calls. ECB holds rates. China financial risks and how they impact Vancouver Real Estate. Special interview with Tian Yang, CEO of global macro research firm Variant Perception.

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Core inflation in Canada came in hotter than expected. Immigration continues to pressure shelter inflation, creating further challenges for the Bank of Canada. The Feds contemplate limiting foreign students in several provinces. Bond yields push higher. Nuclear energy coming to Alberta. The World Economic Forum kicks off. 

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Inflation remains sticky but the Fed will still cut. Could this spark a second wave of inflation? Guest Jared Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtnap suggests the stock market is on the cusp of a pull-back. Trading sentiment tops and bottoms. The striking similarities between US stocks and Canadian housing. Property taxes surge in Canadian cities.

Pre-order Jared’s new book, No Worries: 
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We interview energy expert, and popular newsletter writer Doomberg on the green energy transition. Net zero cars, nuclear energy, solar and wind, this is a masterclass on all things energy. There are no solutions, only trade offs, and Doomberg provides the sobering reality Canadians face in the years ahead as governments push climate policy. 

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We discuss Pierre Poilievres video that has gone viral regarding a potential debt crisis in Canada. Our total debt to GDP sits at 305% and is one of the highest in the G20. This has garnered responses from Chrystia Freeland, the mainstream media, and various economists. What does the Loonie Hour think?

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All vehicles sold in Canada must be hybrid or electric by 2035. We interviewed transportation energy expert David Rapson to discuss the economic impacts and the viability of the mandates. Reckless population growth running at highest levels in nearly 70 years. Canada CPI still sticky. Financial markets flirting with no landing or a soft landing. 

Check out industry-leading BMO ETFs here: https://www.bmogam.com/ca-en/products/exchange-traded-funds/etf-centre/?ecid=dw-LHPODNovGAM1-ADBMO26

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The Fed shocks the market with a dovish outlook, forecasts 3 rate cuts next year. Bond yields tumble. Is a soft landing a fantasy or reality? Canadian mortgage rates are falling along with home prices. 

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The Bank of Canada held rates again. Markets are expecting 100bps of rate cuts in 2024. Bond yields continue to tumble. Will housing perk up? Keep an eye on US non-farm payrolls. COP 28 brings big promises and big problems for Canadian oil and gas. Who is the most dangerous man in Canada?

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Check out Addy! The largest institutional-grade commercial real estate investing platform in Canada! https://addyinvest.ca/
Use our promo code "LOONIEHOUR"

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Canadian banks reported earnings this week. Nearly all of them significantly increased their provision for loan losses. The economy contracted in Q3.  Markets are betting on the BoC to cut rates next year. US still holding up.

Check out industry-leading BMO ETFs here: https://www.bmogam.com/ca-en/products/exchange-traded-funds/etf-centre/?ecid=dw-LHPODNovGAM1-ADBMO26

Check out Addy! The largest institutional-grade commercial real estate investing platform in Canada! https://addyinvest.ca/
Use our promo code "LOONIEHOUR"

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We interview the president of Canadians for Nuclear energy Dr. Chris Keefer to discuss nuclear energy and why the current government has suddenly taken  a u-turn on nuclear energy policy. We then discuss the Federal budget update, housing funds and the AirBnb changes coming. CPI in Canada falls back to within the BoC's target, and comments from Tiff Macklem. 

Check out Canadians for Nuclear Energy: https://www.canfornuclearenergy.org/

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The Loonie Hour is live in Toronto on November 30th! Join us for drinks, appetizers, a live podcast, and Q&A session!

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Dr. Sylvain Charlebois aka The Food Professor joins the podcast to discuss food inflation hitting Canadian wallets. His Battle with the Bank of Canada, and the impacts of the carbon tax. Keith and Steve then discuss the recession playbook. US CPI, jobless claims and the bond trade. Are we at a turning point?

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Bank of Canada flags government spending in 2024. Canadian Tire and its chain of retailers warn about weak consumer demand, job cuts. BC Government unveils drastic housing supply changes. Arrive Canada Scam heats up. Feds Jay Powell spooks markets.

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Confidence plunges as recession hits Canada. Bond yields retrace as Central Banks signal end of hiking cycle. Carbon tax divides Canadian provinces as affordability crunch deepens. Home sales weaken in October. 

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Bank of Canada holds rates, says global bond yields are doing the tightening. Inflation back to target in 2025. Canadian banks cutting jobs and selling loans. The ECB hits the panic pause. HSBC says the world is at "tipping point". Universal basic income surfaces in Canada.

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Economic growth prospects continue to be revised higher, what are we all missing? Inflation slows in Canada. Business outlook sours. Canada's banking regulator succumbs to political pressures. 

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We discuss the implications of the turmoil in the middle east from a markets perspective. The IMF predicts Canada to have the largest economic growth in the G7 next year. US CPI remains sticky, securing central banks to hold rates. Bond volatility continues unabated.

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Recent data out of Vancouver & Toronto points to a marked slowdown in September that looks poised to continue into Q4. Bond yields accelerate higher. Manufacturing data continues to weaken. China Coal usage ramps up. Reserve Bank of Australia moves firmly to the sidelines.

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Local governments raising taxes as interest payments rise and tax revenues fall. Bond market contagion deepens as yields surge higher. Canadian mortgage renewals becoming a bigger problem. Business and consumer sentiment tumbles. Household savings are depleted.

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Canada CPI comes in hot. Bond yields ripping higher over inflation concerns. Oil continues to push higher which will act as a hard brake on the economy. Powell dismisses the base case for a soft landing. The Bank of England moves to the sidelines. Airlines in the eye of the storm.

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We are joined this week by Canadian credit and housing analyst Ben Rabidoux. Insolvencies are ratcheting higher, the pre-sale market remains the biggest vulnerability. Mortgage rates are starting to break household balance sheets. Immigration is out of control. Canada apartment rents are still rising. The ECB hikes. US inflation still sticky. 

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The Bank of Canada holds interest rates. Q2 GDP unexpectedly contracts, defying Bank of Canada forecasts. Higher mortgage rates are starting to hit households hard. China & Germany have hit the brakes hard. The ECB could shift to the sidelines. US apartment rents are likely to contract in September, with implications on CPI.

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Canadian banks report rising loan loss provisions. The Federal Government admits to undercounting non-permanent resident growth by a million people. The BC government pleads with the Bank of Canada ahead of the September 06 meeting. The US labour market shows signs of softening.

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The Federal government is back from their housing retreat with no real changes other than a further review into foreign student loopholes. Regional bank stocks are tumbling once again. Jackson Hole, hawkish fed? Fixed mortgage rates back on the climb AGAIN.

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Inflation in Canada jumped well above expectations in July, hitting 3.3%. Markets are now expecting no landing, pushing global bond yields to a 15 year high. The Panda in the room is only growing larger as the Chinese property market reaches a tipping point. Provincial governments fight back on green transition.

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Consumer and producer prices in China are now outright contracting on an annual basis. US CPI inflation is nearly back on target, but how do you factor in base effects and lagging shelter prices? The largest retailer in Canada delivers ominous warning about the shape of Canadian households.

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Markets are shorting the USD at a record pace and that could backfire very soon. Our special guest Brent Johnson, views the USD as the ultimate flight to safety and thinks that need for safety could return as volatility erupts in global bond markets. Troubles are brewing in China and Japan. The new housing and immigration ministers say they have no plans for slowing immigration, and say targets might need to be revised higher. 

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Interest rates are rising once again as economic growth remains resilient for now. The Fed and the ECB raise rates once again. The federal government has a new housing minister. 

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We are joined this week by Professor David Rapson, an expert on energy markets and climate policy, with a recent focus on electric vehicles and transportation decarbonization. We debunk and discuss energy markets. Later in the show we discuss recent inflation in Canada, downside surprises, and mortgage relief proposals.

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The Bank of Canada raised interest rates another 25bps, bringing the overnight rate to its highest point since 2001. US CPI tumbles below expectations. Producer prices keep falling. Used car prices are crashing. China issues could destroy a lot of economic forecasts. 

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The FCAC has asked Canadian banks to work with borrowers to extend amortizations and reduce prepayment penalties for over leveraged home owners. Real Estate stats in Vancouver & Toronto point to a market that is slowing. The ISM continues to roll over. Waiting for Non-farm payroll to drop. Canada plans largest Uranium plant in the world.

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Fixed mortgage rates still moving higher. Population growth hits 1.2M in Canada. The Fed and ECB promise further rate hikes. The much talked about recession has not transpired, making the case for higher for longer interest rates. Government debt and the expectation for lower stock returns.

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Central Banks Coordinate higher Rates. Bond yields suddenly ripping higher once again. The Bank of Canada says house prices concern them. Housing set to slow with mortgage stress test nearing 8%. Where is the recession? Liquidity is actually increasing, pushing stocks higher. 

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National house prices ticker higher in May. Mortgage credit growth tumbles to a 20 year low, signalling a slowdown is ahead. Housing starts are plummeting. The fed performs a hawkish pause. The ECB raises rates despite recession. China cuts rates as youth unemployment surges. ESG debunked. 

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We are joined by Robert Asselin, former advisor to Justin Trudeau, and budget director to Bill Morneau to discuss ballooning deficits and inflation. The Bank of Canada starts hiking rates again. Bond yields surge, building permits plummet. Universal basic income gets a test run.

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Canada's GDP surprises to the upside, largely on the back of a massive population boom that is masking a lack of productivity growth. This is putting undue pressure on the Bank of Canada, with markets now expecting the BoC to move once again. US jobs data provides a murky outlook. Commodities pointing to recession. And special guest Professor Michael Giest joins us to discuss the controversial Bill C-11 censorship bill. 

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Rate hikes have only hit one third of all mortgages outstanding. Scotiabank says their customers are pulling back on discretionary spending. Is the Fed going to hike again next month? Germany enters a recession. Debt ceiling hysteria reaches a tipping point. 

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Inflation surprised to the upside in April, forcing bond yields to surge higher and putting the Bank of Canada back in the hot seat. Meanwhile 75% of variable rate mortgages have hit their trigger rate. The Federal Government made a colossal error on issuing debt on the short end of the curve. 

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The city of Toronto approves mass rezoning for residential development. There's an inventory shortage not just in Canadian housing markets but around the world right now. CPI inflation comes in as expected. Are deposit runs an issue in Canada? The Bank of Canada asks Canadians to weigh in on a central bank digital currency. 

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Home sales are bouncing back to life across Canada. Calgary Real Estate prices hit new record highs. The banking crisis is far from over as contagion risks start to spread. The Fed hikes rates another 25bps but a pause appears likely. Markets are calling for rate cuts as soon as this fall. 

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The housing market continues to turn higher, yet wages are actually rolling over. Latest data shows wage growth is now sharply negative in real terms. Banking issues in the US have not gone away. The Bank of Canada is fully expecting a recession. CN Rail says the recession is already here. 

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Headline inflation falls to 4.2% in March. National house prices are back on the rise with housing starts still falling. Government employees striking across the nation as the cost of living crisis persists, potentially entrenching higher wage inflation. Former head of the Conservative Party Erin O’Toole joins the show.

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The Bank of Canada kept interest rates on hold while raising GDP growth forecasts. Meanwhile, land loans to developers have completely evaporated, sowing the seeds for a supply crunch years down the road. CPI in the US eases but core inflation is proving to be sticky. Warren Buffett takes a surprise trip to Japan. Germany shuts down more nuclear plants.

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Sweeping policy changes are coming on the housing supply front in Vancouver. Meanwhile, TD Bank has become the worlds most shorted bank stock, facing $3.7B of short interest. Is this the end of the US Dollar? Dutch Farmers Revolt ! 

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The Federal Government announced its budget and it was a doozy. More inflationary spending, including money for groceries. The Bank of Canada will have its work cut out for them as there are also signs that the housing market is showing signs of strengthening. Credit spreads suggest there are still issues under the hood within financial markets.

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Canada's oil and gas sector could flourish, enriching the lives of all Canadians while lowering global emissions, the only thing stopping it is politics according to this weeks special guest Andrew Haynes. Andrew is a 20 year expert in the energy sector. Meanwhile, the US Fed continues to push rates higher despite banking issues. Canadian population growth exceeded one million last year. Billions of commercial loans coming due could create more issues for smaller banks.

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Banking crisis spreading across the US and more issues at Credit Suisse. Is this an isolated event or a potential contagion? What are the market implications for Canada? Bond yields are falling. The ECB raises rates. Canadian Real Estate Prices drop 15%, new listings hit 20 year lows. 

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The Bank of Canada keeps rate hikes on pause, threatening a weaker currency as other central banks push forward with higher rates. What does this mean for the typical Canadian household? Important Jobs numbers are released. Inflation upside risks. Continued bull market for Canadian energy?

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Canada's GDP was flat in Q4, falling well below the Bank of Canada's forecast. The housing market continues to be starved of inventory as sellers attempt to hold out market conditions. Extend and pretend, amortizations are growing at Canadian banks. Inflation remains sticky across the US and Euro Zone as growth slows. 

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Inflation in Canada surprised to the downside. However, shelter and food inflation, two things you can't live without- remain elevated. The public sector continues to grow as the entrepreneurial spirit stagnates. Commercial Real Estate remains under pressure. The Market is now more hawkish than the Fed. 

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National home prices in Canada continue to slide, falling 12% on a yearly basis, the deepest slide on record. Signs of sticky inflation persist, suggesting the Bank of Canada might still have more work to do on interest rates. The Wealth gap could explode higher in the next recession. Could interest income from high interest rates actually be easing financial conditions? 

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A big Vancouver Real Estate Developer goes belly up on over $700M in debt. Is this the canary in the coal mine? The Bank of Canada admits they had to pause over extreme household indebtedness. The Fed says disinflation is underway. The yield curve is now the most inverted since the 1980's.

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More rate hikes from the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England. Are markets overly optimistic about the future of interest rates? Is the Canadian housing market nearing a bottom? We have Ron Butler join us for a guest interview to discuss the good, the bad, and the ugly in the Canadian mortgage market.

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The Bank of Canada has raised interest rates another 25bps but has signalled they will pause and hold from here. What does this mean for housing and financial conditions? Is a soft landing achievable or wishful thinking? Consumer confidence is increasing but models suggest there is still near a 50/50 chance of a US recession this year.

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National house prices continued their slide in December and are now down 17% since peaking. Inflation continues to fall but businesses don't believe we will see 2% inflation anytime soon. Twinkie bets are out, the Bank of Canada is poised for a rate hike next week. Investors are lining up to withdraw nearly $20B worth of funds from private Real Estate.

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CPI inflation in the US continues to decelerate, right in line with expectations. We discuss the market implications and guess where inflation could be later this year. Canadian Bank CEO's send out a warning to regulators over vulnerable borrowers. The Fed says rising house prices created a wealth effect that boosted inflation. Meanwhile, another central banker says it's not their job to fight climate change.

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Toronto and Vancouver home sales fell nearly 50% in the month of December. The comps are going to look awful from now until March. Is the Fed looking in the rearview mirror? Why the jobs data is lagging and why it's possible inflation can come down quicker than we might expect. Another recession signal just flashed red.

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Liquidity is scarce to end the year. Stocks are down, bond yields are rising once again. Delinquencies are set to rise. The boys discuss the outlook for 2023 and provide some forecasts on possible scenarios.

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Canada added over 800,000 people to the population, the largest increase going back to the 1970s. The economic machine that is immigrating people and selling them housing continues to churn. CPI inflation remains rather sticky, leaving the Bank of Canada with some difficult decisions in January. Stock market volatility remains elevated as recession risks remain firmly anchored.

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National home prices continue to slide lower, now down 16% since peaking in March. US headline inflation continues to move lower but the Fed ain't pivoting! More rate hikes from the US, Europe and England this week. Could passive investors see little to no returns for several decades?

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The Bank of Canada raised rates another 50bps, however they are now signaling a pause is in order. What are the implications for markets moving forward? More stress in the housing market, government spending sprees, and the probabilities of a financial crisis.

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Canadian GDP growth slows ahead of Bank of Canada rate hike next week. Is the Bank of Canada nearing the end of their rate hike cycle? Retail sales are flat over the past few years and housing is now falling. Jerome Powell readies the market for an easing, bond yields fall as growth slows.

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Bank of Canada says half of fixed payment variable rate mortgages have reached their trigger rates and this means that about 13% of all outstanding mortgages are interest only, paying no principal. Meanwhile, the BC Government introduces more housing changes. And China is back into lockdown threatening the outlook for oil demand.

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