5 in 5 with ANZ

Global stocks wobble as Ukraine conflict fears escalate. UK inflation is hotter than expected. China’s banks hold lending rates amid a focus on fiscal stimulus, and Bank Indonesia says post-Trump currency moves have affected its ability to cut rates. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma looks at the implications of US President-elect Donald Trump’s win for Asian local currency bond yields. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Stocks are jittery and safe havens in demand this morning after an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine overnight. The RBA’s minutes indicate it may cut earlier than previously expected and Australian consumer confidence is still trending higher. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses the outlook for Chinese steel production and iron ore prices ahead of looming US tariffs under a Donald Trump Presidency. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices rise 3% as the Russia-Ukraine war escalates. US Treasury yields edge up as traders price a December rate cut by the Fed at 50-50. And RBA minutes today are being watched to see how hawkish the rate-setting board continues to be. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman explains how the RBNZ’s more aggressive start to OCR cuts has shifted New Zealand economy’s growth outlook upwards. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Trump trade takes a breather. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is less dovish than expected. China’s retail sales surge, leaving it on track for 4.9% GDP growth this year. And was the Trump trade actually about Trump? Or about a very clear election result? In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses the risks of Australia’s gas supply getting redirected into the international market, and what might replace it domestically. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US producer price inflation rises a bit, but a rate cut remains on the table. The US dollar nears a two-year high on the ‘'Trump Trade’. Australia’s jobless rate holds but employment growth slows, and there are signs of life in New Zealand’s housing market. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at how Australia’s East Coast gas suppliers have dealt with entry into the global market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Bets firm for a December rate cut by the Fed as US disinflation continues. Australian wage growth is lower than expected, but that might not move the RBA. The Yen weakens further as the US dollar continues its surge - the Aussie and Kiwi fall as well. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh continues our coverage of the effects of Donald Trump’s election victory on global markets. Chinese authorities moved yesterday to support a weakening Yuan, while foreign investment outflows in Asia have also been picking up pace. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks take a breather, while Treasury yields and Bitcoin continue to surge following the US election. Australian consumers and businesses are the most confident since early 2023, and New Zealand’s economic slump looks to have bottomed out. ANZ Senior Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing says China’s authorities look to have held off announcing a larger stimulus package last week to keep their powder dry for whatever a Donald Trump-led United States throws at their economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Trump trade surge continues: Bitcoin hits a new record high and the US dollar bounced another half-percent overnight. Expectations for another Fed rate cut in December grow more wobbly; and weary ECB policy makers suggest rate cuts could help ward off negative US trade moves. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton analyses a surge in jobs in aged care and disabled care, which is lifting female workforce participation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Fed cuts by 25 basis points as expected, with one more expected next month. The Fed is being cautious as the US economy lands softly. China’s EV exports to Australia surge. New Zealand is wary of how tariffs might affect beef exports. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur analyses how Trump’s tariffs might affect economies in Asia, outside of China. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks rise again with hopes a dominant Trump Presidency will be good for growth and profits, but Treasury yields fell ahead of the Fed’s decision. The Bank of England cuts, but looser British fiscal policy may slow more cuts. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou explains how well China is prepared for Trump tariffs 2.0. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks surge more than 2% to fresh record highs as stock investors celebrate Donald Trump’s re-election. But bond holders aren’t so sure. US Treasury yields jumped 18 basis points to a six-month high as traders bet on tax cuts, higher borrowing and growth. Meanwhile New Zealand’s jobless rate rises less than expected, and Malaysia holds rates. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman analyses the currency implications of that election win, following a sizeable jump in the US dollar overnight. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks and Treasury yields are up on election day as data suggests whoever wins is going to inherit a growing US economy. Meanwhile, the RBA holds and stays mildly hawkish, and New Zealand’s unemployment rate is expected to tick up today. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner reviews the recent leap in ANZ’s Business Outlook survey and looks ahead to the Reserve Bank’s rate decision at the end of the month. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US dollar and Treasury yields fell overnight as opinion polls pointed to a narrow Kamala Harris victory; In Australia today the RBA is expected to hold rates but shift to a more neutral tone, and Australia’s jobs market shows more signs of strength. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at how a Trump Presidency might affect trade in Asia, vs a Harris Presidency. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US jobs growth was much weaker than expected in October, but the Fed is still on track to cut rates 25 basis points later this week. December is not as certain for another cut though. And watch out this week for more stimulus news from China. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin teases out how the Fed, financial markets and bond investors view a Harris win, or a Trump win. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Bank of Japan holds rates, but signals more still on the cards; UK rate cut bets retreat after new Government’s first budget, Australian retail sales jump and China’s manufacturing sector expands ahead of further stimulus expected next week. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou (Showe Jo) looks at the rise …and the rise of China’s electric vehicle industry. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US GDP is boosted by strong consumer spending while European growth beats expectations. Australian inflation falls - but rate cuts still aren’t on the cards for this year. And the Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates today against a backdrop of political uncertainty. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, as Indonesia’s new President is finally sworn in following February’s election, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan looks at what his new policy priorities could mean for commodities and the state budget. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US consumer confidence lifts, ahead of stronger GDP figures expected today, although weaker jobs data shows signs of a cooling labour market; And Australian consumer confidence stays strong ahead of data today expected to show headline inflation fall to within the RBA’s target band. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman analyses the potential impact today’s inflation numbers could have on the Aussie dollar. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices slump 5.5% on hopes the tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran might not escalate. The yen falls on uncertainty about a new Government in Japan, and gas prices are rising as European buyers hunt for LNG supplies for the European winter. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari explains why China is stockpiling copper as a strategic metal. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Traders are bracing for hits to the yen and the Nikkei after surprising losses for Japan’s ruling party in election results overnight. Japan’s inflation is firming in line with Bank of Japan hopes, and US non-farm payrolls are the big figures to watch this week. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks at the Trump trade in global currency and bond markets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US labour market remains resilient, while UK and European production is still contracting. South Korea growth disappoints as exports drag, and Japan’s Finance Minister raises concerns as the yen slides against a resurgent US dollar In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at what China might learn from its current economic support efforts, and how quickly India might catch up. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks are dragged down by big tech names. European rate cut bets move further towards 50 basis points in December. Canada cuts rates by 50 basis points, and Singapore’s inflation is higher than expected, but provides enough for policy easing. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga was in China during the recent stimulus briefings and gives us his take on what the domestic economy there is facing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US Fed officials point to smaller, cautious cuts, Australian consumers look through later rate cuts and to job safety as confidence jumps, and falls in some New Zealand imports point to underlying economic weakness. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses concerns that China has been building up excessive stockpiles of key imports at the same time as domestic activity has been dropping off. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Gold jumps to new highs. China’s banks cut lending rates more than expected to jolt demand. Iron ore and oil prices fall after China stimulus disappointment, and the RBA is encouraged by rate cut bets being pushed out after strong jobs data. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why investors weren’t too keen on China’s recent property support package. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The S&P 500 starts the week fresh after hitting a new record high on Friday. China’s GDP beats expectations, but a big fourth quarter jump is required to hit the official target. Japan’s core inflation continues to support cautious BoJ rate hikes. ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin reviews the key September economic data prints in the US to explain why market pricing for November and December rate cuts by the US Fed are starting to be dialled back. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The European Central Bank cuts by 25 basis points as inflation falls below target; US rate cut bets are pulled back following stronger retail sales; Australian jobs growth surges; And China announces further measures to support its property market. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk looks at the effects that changing household sizes and investor lending are having on Australia’s housing market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

New Zealand’s inflation falls more than expected, with markets now wondering if a 75 basis point cut in November is on the cards; UK inflation was also weaker; Australian jobs growth is expected to slow; And the Philippines and Thailand cut rates. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman explains what New Zealand’s weaker inflation could mean for the Reserve Bank’s November decision. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

A weakening UK jobs market points to a November Bank of England cut; Concern over China stimulus grows; FOMC members talk of 25bps cuts by the Fed; New Zealand inflation is set to return to target; Three rates decisions today in Asia. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk discusses signs that Australia’s housing market is starting to cool - particularly in Melbourne. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Chinese stocks rise after more stimulus was promised over the weekend, but bond investors remain wary. Singapore holds policy but turns dovish, even as growth strengthens. India’s inflation unexpectedly jumps in September. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ International Economist Kishti Sen analyses the outlook for Pacific Island currencies as global monetary policy easing takes off. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Solid US producer prices add to signals the Fed will be cautious in November; South Korea cuts rates, but now looks to pause; And Chinese inflation is weaker than expected, with traders also underwhelmed by Saturday’s stimulus briefing. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing outlines why that weekend briefing by China’s Finance Ministry did not deliver what investors were looking for. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US inflation outpaces expectations, supporting bets for a 25 basis point cut by the Fed in November; Japan’s producer prices are stronger than expected; A manufacturing bounce in Singapore may lead its Monetary Authority to hold policy next week. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak analyses how the Thai Baht was the second strongest Asian currency in Q3, prompting the Bank of Thailand to intervene. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts by 50 basis points and markets price another outsized move in November; Attention turns to US inflation data after last week’s strong jobs report; The Reserve Bank of India holds but moves to a neutral stance. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, as China’s Finance Ministry announces a fiscal policy briefing for Saturday, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung analyses the growth prospects for China’s economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil fell back 5% overnight on fears about China’s growth outlook. The RBA tones down the hawkishness in its September board minutes. All eyes are on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate decision today - will it be 25 or 50 basis points? In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why China’s National Development and Reform Commission didn’t announce any additional fiscal stimulus at yesterday’s briefing, but why some might be around the corner. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil is up another 3% on fears of escalating Middle East conflict; Friday’s bumper US jobs report has seen bets for a 50 basis point cut by the Fed in November evaporate; And China’s stock market braces for a renewed surge after the Golden Week holidays. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell says there are signs the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s August rate cut may have already spurred some housing market activity. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US jobs growth was much stronger than expected, which lifted US Treasury yields 12-20 bps and shunted the US dollar 0.5% higher. Economists also now see a 50 basis point cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton reveals what a surprising rise in workforce participation means for interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets are skittish this morning on fears the conflict in the Middle East will lift oil prices. Australia’s labour market and services sector remain resilient in PMI data, and NZ house prices fall again, despite the RBNZ starting rate cuts. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Agriculture Economist Susan Kilsby looks at what the US dock workers’ strike could mean for Australia and New Zealand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are mixed as traders analyse just how much escalation is possible in the conflict between Israel and Iran across the Middle East. There’s further strength in the US jobs market, and inflation in South Korea has fallen below the central bank’s target. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur outlines the prospects for Asian economies across the fourth quarter. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices have jumped, US Treasury yields US stocks are down and the US dollar is up in a flight to safety after reports that Iran has launched missiles at Israel; the US labour market is showing signs of resilience, while rate cut expectations in Europe have been boosted by lower inflation overnight. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk discusses how sales in the lead up to Fathers’ Day in Australia helped retailers in August. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

China’s stock market jumps 8.5% as investors rush in. Japan’s Nikkei falls nearly 5% on concerns the new Prime Minister there is an interest rate hawk. Australia’s housing market is softening. New Zealand business confidence takes another leap higher. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk says there are some silver linings in the recent bi-annual ANZ Core Logic Housing Affordability Report as affordability nationally worsened in June. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US inflation kept falling through August. All eyes this week will be on US jobs data on Friday. Australian lending figures may show a rise today. And consumers in New Zealand are more confident about house prices, as well as their own finances. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Analyst Daniel Hynes looks at why Saudi Arabia might be about to swamp the market with extra oil to win back market share. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Gold, the S&P 500 and the Euro Stoxx 500 rose to fresh record-highs on enthusiasm about the Fed’s first rate cut and China’s wide-ranging stimulus. Key US inflation data tonight is the next focus for global interest rates. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim sifts through India’s recent trade data to reveal why gold imports jumped in August. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Australian inflation drops within the RBA’s target band for the first time since October 2021, but sticky services prices could be a concern. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars are down about 1% after hitting fresh 2024 highs yesterday. Services inflation also remains sticky in Japan. In part two of a bonus Deep Dive interview on China’s stimulus drive, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains the risks of not doing more, including the prospect of a Japan-style ‘lost decade’. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Reserve Bank of Australia didn’t consider a hike as it held rates yesterday. Aussie consumer confidence jumps to its highest since January 2023, and August inflation data later today should show the temporary impact of cost of living support. The NZ dollar hits a new 2024 high. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung analyses yesterday’s China stimulus package and explains why it could have been bigger. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Federal Reserve members are backing their 50 basis point rate cut, supporting views of a soft landing. The Aussie dollar is strengthening ahead of potentially hawkish RBA rate commentary today. Expectations rise for a new China stimulus package. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Catherine Birch analyses how the RBA is placed for its cash rate decision today following last week’s 50 basis point cut by the Fed, and the ongoing strength in Australia’s jobs market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets are digesting the Fed’s super-sized cut and the Bank of Japan’s decision to hold its rates, as expected. Trading and investing focus now turns to RBA rates decision on Tuesday. China’s yuan surges as exporters bring cash home. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Asia Economist Krystal Tan analyses how lower oil prices are helping some South East Asian economies more than others. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks are celebrating the Fed’s big rate cut as confirmation of a soft landing. The Bank of England holds rates, as expected. The Bank of Japan is also seen holding later today. NZ GDP contracts less than the RBNZ forecast, reducing chances of an oversized cut. Australia’s jobs market continues to give the RBA a headache. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell details the trip hazards of relying on high-frequency indicators, which the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may have just fallen over with its June quarter GDP forecast. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Fed cuts by a super-sized 50 basis points and signals a total of 200 basis points of cuts by the end of 2025. Indonesia also cuts rates. The RBA will be watching Australian jobs data today. NZ’s GDP data is expected to show a contraction. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Geopolitical Risk Cameron Mitchell reviews the rise of tariffs as economic security tools, and what to expect on tariffs from whoever wins the US Presidential elections in November. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Strong US retail sales ease recession fears, adding slightly to expectations of a 25 basis point cut by the Fed; Australia’s consumer confidence jumps, Singapore’s chip exports get a boost, and Bank Indonesia faces a tough rates decision today. In our bonus deep dive interview, from the recent ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia summit, ANZ Head of Geopolitical Risk Cameron Mitchell explains why themes of de-globalisation and the de-coupling of the US and Chinese economies should be looked at through a different lens. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Market expectations for a 50 basis point cut by the Fed grow to 50/50 amid debate over whether the US jobs market is too weak for just a 25 bps move; And the Yen hits its strongest level against the US dollar since mid-2023. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung sees the potential for China to unveil a two trillion yuan stimulus package. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

China is expected to launch a stimulus package after a very weak set of economic data. Global markets are focused on the Fed starting its rate-cutting cycle. The US dollar may hold up despite lower rates. NZ’s housing market is gearing up for spring. In part two of our bonus Deep Dive interview, Australia-Asia Society CEO Anthony Bubalo talked at the ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia Summit in Melbourne about the nuances businesses now face when thinking about geopolitics. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The ECB cuts another 25 basis points, as expected. Global markets are firm ahead of next week’s Fed decision. India’s inflation is firm, but the RBI is on track to ease in December. NZ inflation is firmer than forecast, but not enough to concern the RBNZ. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, Australia-Asia Society CEO Anthony Bubalo analyses the key themes at the recent ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia Summit in Melbourne, including how Australian businesses grappling with geopolitics. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US core inflation is stronger than expected in August causing markets to reduce bets for a 50 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve, the Yen hit its strongest 2024 level against the US dollar, and Australia’s strong labour market continues to surprise the RBA. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur reviews the potential impact for businesses of expected rate cuts in Indonesia, the Philippines and South Korea this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets are mixed ahead of key US inflation data tonight. Oil slumps below US$70/bbl after a demand forecast downgrade. China’s exports jump, but sluggish imports highlight soft domestic demand. And Australia’s Stage 3 tax cuts do little to spur business or consumer confidence. In in part two of a bonus deep dive interview with Australia’s Group of 8 universities CEO Vicki Thomson at the ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia Summit, Vicki explains why Australia’s universities believe there are alternatives to the new international student cap being proposed. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets bed in expectations for a soft landing ahead of key price data, China’s core inflation is the lowest in three years, prompting calls for more stimulus, and Taiwan’s exports get an AI boost. In our bonus deep dive interview, from the recent ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia summit, Australia’s Group of 8 universities CEO Vicki Thomson outlines the challenges facing Australia’s education export sector. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Mixed US jobs data means the debate about a 25 basis point cut or a 50 point cut by the Fed next week still very alive. Australian home lending to investors, is very strong. Vietnam’s economy is in a sweet spot, with falling inflation and strong exports. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at the implications for Australian Iron Ore producers from weakening Chinese steel demand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets were mixed ahead of key US jobs figures tonight; The RBA Governor talks tough in the fight against inflation; Malaysia keeps rates on hold, with lower inflation forecast, while Thailand’s annual CPI falls to just 0.35%. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell reviews how New Zealand’s housing headwinds might keep the market from previous form as interest rates fall. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US Job vacancies were weaker than anyone expected in July, boosting chances of a larger cut by the Fed this month, Australia’s economy expands, although household spending weakens; as does China’s services sector. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes sets out the challenges OPEC producers are facing from weakening global activity. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks fall after weak US manufacturing data raises fears about a deeper slowdown. The Australian dollar is down over 1%; Australia’s GDP today should just be in growth territory, and South Korean inflation hits the central bank’s target. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga reviews Australia’s trade relationship with ASEAN, from the ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia summit in Melbourne. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets were quiet overnight due to the US Labor Day holiday. The final pieces of Australia’s GDP puzzle fall into place today; Job ads show a cooling Australian labour market, and we look at which state capital house prices are pulling away. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman digs into New Zealand’s latest jobs data to highlight which sectors, regions and age groups are feeling the brunt of previous monetary policy tightening. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets are laser-focused on US jobs data this week to confirm the Fed can pinpoint a soft landing. Australia’s tax cuts are yet to show in retail sales growth. India’s GDP growth was below the Reserve Bank of India’s forecasts. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Catherine Birch explains why lower headline inflation figures in Australia aren’t telling the full story. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks are strong on more signs of a soft landing. NZ business confidence surges as rates are cut. Australian capital investment plans remain strong, and India’s GDP figures later today may send the Reserve Bank of India a dovish signal. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung unpacks how changing global supply chains are driving capital outflows from China’s manufacturers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks are trading down ahead of of chipmaker Nvidia’s results later this morning; There’s support for an ECB September cut; Australia’s inflation in July was stronger than expected, while house building remains soft; And there’s ongoing weakness in New Zealand’s jobs market. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why there’s been record high outflows of capital from China in recent quarters. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US dollar weakened again overnight to near its low this year. Australia’s inflation figures today will be dominated by Government subsidies lowering electricity prices and there’s welcome news for the Bank of Japan in producer price inflation figures. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Agriculture Economist Susan Kilsby explains what’s behind the rise in dairy prices recently, leading to ANZ Research to boost its NZ farmgate price forecast. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil has jumped 2-and-a-half percent on renewed conflict in the Middle East. The US dollar strengthened overnight as traders continued to digest signals out of Jackson Hole. And New Zealand’s Government rushes to try and reduce energy prices. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, explains why Vietnam is not the only big winner from the friendshoring trend to pull some parts of supply chains out of China. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Jerome Powell says the time has come to cut rates. They may eventually 200 basis points. The Kiwi dollar is rising against the Aussie despite a smaller interest rate premium. Japan is set to keep hiking. Inflation in Singapore below forecasts. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Maddy Dunk looks at how an eventual fall in Australian interest rates might effect house prices differently in different cities. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US manufacturing contracts, keeping the Fed on course to cut next month, but Fed speakers see only gradual falls. Those comments drove Treasury yields up and stocks down this morning. PMIs in Australia and Japan have picked up. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks ahead to key speeches today by the heads of the US and Japan central banks. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US jobs growth is revised down, cementing Fed rate cut bets and sending the world’s reserve currency down further. Thailand and Indonesia hold rates, and Japan’s export data indicates some weakness in global demand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton analyses how Australia is tracking for a ‘soft’ economic landing after such a rapid rise in interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US dollar continues to weaken as rate cut hopes solidify; RBA minutes show its dual mandate kept a rate hike in check; New Zealand house prices fell ahead of the RBNZ’s rate cut, and Indonesia could cut rates today, while Thailand looks set to hold. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton presents ANZ Research’s revised Australian economic forecasts and says why the RBA can hold until February. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are looking ahead this week to Jackson Hole for firmer clues on rate cuts. Currencies are already on their way - the US dollar weakening against the Yen, and the Aussie rising; Iron Ore prices are slumping, and Gold is on the bounce. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh maps out the future for Asian currencies after the unwind of the yen carry trade. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are turning to Jackson Hole later this week for signs from the world’s central bankers about the speed and size of expected rate cuts. Central banks make decisions in Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea. And there’s good news from New Zealand’s economy In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes talks about the weather, and in particular what a change from El Nino to La Nina means for markets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US retail sales jump and give global stocks a boost. Australia’s jobs rise is tempered by rising participation. The Philippines’ central bank cuts. China’s domestic demand slumps, while Japan’s GDP gets a consumer shot in the arm. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak reviews PMI data to reveal which Asian economies are riding an AI-Technology demand boost. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The RBNZ kicks off its easing cycle with a 25 bps rate cut. Australian jobs figures today may show when the RBA might move. US CPI inflation in July met expectations. There’s another ‘will they - won’t they’ rate decision today, in the Philippines. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner analyses why the RBNZ felt it was able to cut rates a full year ahead of its previously published forecasts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Weaker-than-expected US producer prices support rate cut bets ahead of key CPI data tonight. Australian wage growth is moderating, but only slowly. And it’s a ‘will they/won’t they’ monetary policy review day in New Zealand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner looks ahead to that ‘live’ Monetary Policy Review for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand later today. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets were stable overnight ahead of US price data later this week; Australian wages data today will be watched closely by the RBA, and India’s CPI dips below 4%, although perhaps only temporarily. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman says the Dollar-Yen exchange rate appears have have found a near-term floor after a wild couple of weeks. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are bracing this week for fresh US inflation data on Wednesday night, Australia wages and jobs figures on Tuesday and Thursday, a the RBNZ’s decision on Wednesday. In China, more signs of weak retail demand are expected on Thursday. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan examines what a second Trump Presidency might mean for Asian exports. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks rally on easing fears of a US recession. The Aussie dollar jumps after Governor Michele Bullock says the RBA won’t hesitate to hike and thought about hiking earlier this week. The Reserve Bank of India holds rates hawkishly. New Zealand inflation expectations drop. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains why India’s success in reaching a sustainable current account deficit is masking much needed under-investment. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets were calmer overnight, with Bank of Japan officials offering reassurance that hikes won’t happen amid instability. New Zealand’s Q2 job figures left no smoking gun for an August rate cut, and the Reserve Bank of India is set to hold rates today. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Senior Economist Miles Workman analyses how Australia’s relatively stronger jobs market is attracting Kiwis across the Tasman again. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets have regained some ground, with the Nikkei up 10.2%, US stocks up 2%. Meanwhile, the RBA held hawkishly through the turmoil, New Zealand unemployment is set to jump, and Japanese wages are on the rise. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton digs into the hawkish tones and forecasts in the RBA’s statement on monetary policy yesterday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The rout in global markets triggered by US recession fears and the unwinding of the yen carry trade ripped through markets overnight, although there are signs of it easing up this morning. In our bonus deep dive interview, we spoke to ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman after a day of turmoil in Asian markets to find out what on earth was going on. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks sold off sharply on Friday night and US bond yields fell to one-year lows after weaker than expected Non Farm Payrolls data. All eyes are on the RBA tomorrow for any signs of a dovish pivot. South Korea’s inflation was hotter than expected. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ NZ Senior Economist Miles Workman unpacks a downgrade in ANZ Research’s forecast track for NZ house prices. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US treasury yields drop sharply on more confidence the Fed can cut three times this year. The Bank of England cuts, but only just. China’s factory output contracts in July, and Australian exports to China fall. All eyes are now on US non-farm payrolls. In our bonus deep dive interview we return to our coverage of China’s weakening consumer confidence, with ANZ Agriculture Economist Susan Kilsby explaining why authorities’ attempts to revive consumer demand are struggling to get traction. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Fed holds and leaves the door wide open to cut in September. The Bank of Japan hikes and says more tightening could be on the way. RBA rate hike bets are all but off, as Q2 CPI rises less than expected, sending the Aussie dollar tumbling. And oil jumps on new conflict in the Middle East. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Senior Economist Catherine Birch explains what the Reserve Bank of Australia will be looking for to gain confidence it can cut rates from February. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

It’s a big day for global interest rates with the FOMC expected to guide on a September rate cut and speculation the Bank of Japan could hike. Anticipation is also building around Australia’s Q2 CPI, and whether it might force the RBA to raise rates. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Agriculture Economist Susan Kilsby analyses the impact weakening consumer confidence in China is having on New Zealand’s key primary exports. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks rise and Treasury yields fall as weaker US manufacturing activity adds to signs the Fed can cut in September; the Aussie dollar continues its fall, but CPI data tomorrow could provide support, and Vietnam’s exports surge off the back of China’s supply chain diversification. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga examines what President Donald Trump version 2.0 might mean for global inflation, interest rates and trade. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US PCE data was in line with forecasts. The Fed is seen waiting until September before cutting, rather than this week. The Bank of Japan is expected to hike on Wednesday. The Bank of England is seen holding. NZ consumer confidence bounces. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes digs into the demand and supply issues hammering iron ore prices lower. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US GDP growth beats expectations. Tonight’s US inflation data could take the Fed within touching distance of 2% inflation. The Nikkei falls the most in eight years. South Korea’s GDP contracts, making an early rate cut more possible. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani outlines why a September rate cut by the Bank of England is looking more likely than an earlier move in August. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks have fallen sharply on weak earnings from Tesla and tech stocks. The Bank of Canada cuts again. A surging Yen is pushing the US dollar down and the Aussie and Kiwi dollars are being caught in the downdraft as well. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains what needs to happen to revive China’s domestic demand as consumers refuse to spend more, despite looser monetary policy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets took a breather overnight to refocus on US GDP and inflation data tomorrow night. Australian consumer confidence improves as tax cuts arrive. India delivers lower Budget deficit and Singaporean inflation is below forecasts. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ’s Senior Economist Blair Chapman analyses how Australia’s jobs market slowdown could accelerate. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Kamala Harris’ backing to replace Joe Biden supports tech stocks, while a flight to safety sees the Aussie and Kiwi dollars both fall half a percent; European stocks rise on hopes of less trade friction under a Harris Presidency; And the People’s Bank of China surprises with an interest rate cut. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung extracts the meaning in a key phrase to come out last week’s Third Plenum communique, and what it means for China’s economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US President Joe Biden announced this morning he won’t seek a second term. That’s after US tech stocks fell sharply on Friday night on the Crowdstrike tech outages. Australasian and Asian markets will trade first after the news. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains how Australian households are saving a lot more than many think. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The ECB holds its official interest rates and markets see an 80% chance it will be able to cut again in September. US stocks edge lower with ongoing tech stock nerves. Australian unemployment rises a bit, which is seen reassuring the RBA. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari tracks the boom-bust cycle for lithium in recent years, due to volatility in demand for EV batteries. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Nasdaq is down almost 3%, especially its chip stocks, after Donald Trump said Taiwan should pay for its own defence. New Zealand’s soft inflation figures support earlier rate cuts. ANZ Research now sees a cut in November. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Senior Asia Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma analyses the risks to economic growth in Asia over the second half of the year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Stronger US retail sales do little to dent September rate cut hopes. Gold hit a fresh high overnight. New Zealand inflation is being watched for signs of weakness. Australian consumer confidence falls again. Bank Indonesia looks set to hold rates. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks ahead to a possible fourth set of Renminbi reforms as Chinese authorities seek to boost the effectiveness of monetary policy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks and the dollar firmed in the first day of trading after the assassination attempt on US Presidential candidate Donald Trump. China’s GDP growth was below expectations, and there’s further downbeat data on New Zealand’s economy. In part 2 of our bonus deep dive interview on China’s Third Plenum, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explores what the key meeting could mean for China’s private sector. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are focused on safe havens after the assassination attempt on former President Trump. China’s exports are set to soften as US demand wanes. India’s CPI was above expectations, and NZ’s manufacturing sector falls deeper into recession. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why this week’s third plenum meeting of China’s key leaders is so important. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US inflation was much softer than expected overnight, which shunted down Treasury yields and the US dollar. Rates were held in Korea, but with a dovish turn, and there’s more signs of a softening New Zealand economy for the RBNZ to think about. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk looks at how the RBA views fiscal easings in state budgets because of cost-of-living measures. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Ahead of US June CPI data tonight, market bets are firm for a September cut by the Fed; The New Zealand dollar tumbles as markets see the Reserve Bank pivot towards a first cut, and there are official rates decisions today in Korea and Malaysia. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner discusses the importance of next week’s Kiwi CPI after a dovish turn by the RBNZ yesterday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets stick with September rate cut bets after the Fed Chair delivers ‘something for everyone’ in Senate appearance; Australian consumers are more gloomy after headlines the RBA could hike, and New Zealand’s Reserve Bank is expected to hold rates later today. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman analyses where both the Aussie and Kiwi dollars are headed this year - and which looks set to come out on top. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets are treading water this morning ahead of Congressional testimonies from Fed Chair Jay Powell and US CPI numbers. Meanwhile in Australia, housing lending dropped in May, dragged down by a sopping wet New South Wales. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk explains why Western Australia is performing so well in ANZ’s Stateometer report. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks begin the week at record highs after soft US jobs data boosted hopes the Fed will cut in September. European markets are on tenterhooks for French election results. And inflation in Thailand and the Philippines is weaker than expected. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur explains how exports are driving growth in Asia as consumption moderates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/