Conversations with Bill Kristol

Where do things stand in the race after the Democratic convention and before the presidential debate? When veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik joined us the day after Biden’s withdrawal from the race he explained why the next month could be decisive in the fight to define Harris. Reflecting on the first five weeks of the campaign, Sosnik argues that she has been successful: “so far Harris is winning the battle about the campaign being about change, and she is the change candidate—making the campaign about the future and not about the past.” However, he cautions that the race remains very close. As he puts it: “Harris is still running behind the Biden-Harris numbers in 2020, and measurably behind. So, she does have more ground she’s going to need to gain.” Sosnik shares his in-depth analysis of what the campaigns might do going forward, why the upcoming debate may be the most consequential in contemporary history, and the current dynamics in battleground states where the race will be decided.

Where do things stand in the race now that the matchup is set? According to veteran Democratic strategist James Carville, the replacement of Joe Biden by Kamala Harris has improved prospects for the Democrats—though “not as much as some people think.” As he puts it: “It’s like I tell people, if you have an infected wisdom tooth and you go to the dentist and they pull it out, you feel on top of the world—[but] God, you really don’t feel any better than you would if you never had the infected wisdom tooth.” In a race that may be won at the margins, as in 2016 and 2020, Carville explains that Harris must define herself and her candidacy successfully where she still isn’t well known. According to Carville, she has the opportunity to brand Trump as “past, yesterday, and stale”—but the Harris-Walz campaign must have a forward-looking message and run on concrete policy proposals. Carville also discusses the selection of Walz, the mood at Mar-a-Lago since Biden’s withdrawal from the race, how the Trump strategy against Harris might develop, and offers advice about whether to have and how to handle a Harris-Trump debate.

The withdrawal of Joe Biden from the presidential race three weeks after his disastrous debate performance, followed by the swift decision by Democrats to select Kamala Harris as the presumptive nominee, leaves us in uncharted waters. According to veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik, the broad contours of the 2024 election remain: “It’s a narrowly divided country. It’s a fairly even race. But Trump has the advantage in an Electoral College system that [today] favors Republicans.” Yet this election has been like no other. In this Conversation, Sosnik shares his analysis and practical advice for the next four weeks and the next four months. Sosnik explains why the next month may prove decisive. Each campaign now is racing to define Harris, and the stakes of the Democratic convention in August are higher than they have been in many decades. In the weeks ahead, Harris faces the daunting challenge of both running on strengths of the Biden-Harris record and presenting a case for the future that is her own—all as she decides on the most effective case to prosecute against Trump. This will not take place in a vacuum. At the same time, Harris will face an onslaught from the Trump campaign, which has done little advertising during the past weeks and has a war chest to spend on defining her. Sosnik warns that, to win, it is essential for Harris to avoid the peril of presidential candidates like Mitt Romney, John Kerry, and Bob Dole, who have allowed their opponents to define them before their nominations. As Sosnik puts it: “Success always begets more success in politics. So the more successful she is at consolidating the party, demonstrating her capacity to be the nominee, the more successful she is on the run-up to the convention, the more likely the convention is to be a success.” To that end, he argues that Harris's decisions over the next weeks—about her campaign staff, defining her vision, organizing a successful Democratic convention, selecting a strong vice-presidential candidate, etc.—likely will determine her prospects in November.

What should we make of Trump’s plans for the federal bureaucracy in a second term? In recent days, there has been extensive reporting about “Project 2025,” an agenda and road map that openly aims to politicize the civil service and render it more compliant with the executive. In this Conversation, we are joined by University of Pennsylvania political scientist John DiIulio, one of the leading experts on the civil service and bureaucracy in America. DiIulio takes the Project 2025 proposal seriously. But he argues that attacks on the permanent bureaucracy as a “Deep State" are misleading, because the federal agencies all are accountable and subject to Congressional oversight in meaningful ways. DiIulio considers the threat of a second Trump administration prioritizing loyalty over competency in the bureaucracy, the history of the civil service in the US, and what meaningful reforms of the bureaucracy might look like. DiIulio argues that above all we should focus on reforming the use of federal contractors, which remains the most unaccountable part of American government.

What is the state of the economy today and where might it be at the time of the November elections? To discuss, we are joined again by the distinguished Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was deputy director of the National Economic Council during the Financial Crisis and then served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obama’s second term. As Furman puts it, in spite of the inflation of the past few years and other longer-term challenges, “We really are right now economically the envy of the world. So I think it makes a lot of sense that we worry about our problems and figure out what we can do to make it even better.” In a wide-ranging analysis, Furman shares his perspective on inflation, employment, debt, and both Biden and Trump economic policies regarding immigration, tariffs, and other questions. While highlighting the strength of the US economy today, Furman notes how public policy choices and domestic and world events could affect us in the long term.

Where do things stand in Ukraine? How are European democracies faring? How should we think about the challenge from autocracies around the globe? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Anne Applebaum. Applebaum shares her perspective on recent developments in Ukraine, Russia, and Europe including the recent EU elections. She points to Ukraine’s continued resilience in the face of serious challenges, and Europe and America’s support for Ukraine in spite of domestic pressures against it. But she notes that we only have begun to think seriously about the challenges from autocracies, and that much more needs to be done to defend democracy at home and abroad. As Applebaum puts it: “Communist China, nationalist Russia, theocratic Iran, Bolivarian socialist Venezuela, whatever North Korea is… these aren’t countries that share an ideology... but they do share a common interest—undermining us—and by us, I mean America, Europe, the liberal world, the democratic world.”

Where do things stand in the race as we head into the summer? According to veteran Democratic strategist James Carville: “It’s clearly very close. There clearly can be events that can impact the outcome. But we’re headed to an election that not many people are very excited about.” Carville argues that the Biden campaign needs a message on the economy that is forward-looking, and suggests it isn’t enough for the president to frame the election as a referendum on Trump. Carville considers how abortion and unpopularity of the MAGA movement are potentially winning issues that the Biden campaign might use more effectively. But he notes the Trump operation has been more disciplined than in 2016 or in 2020, and reflects on the limitations to date of Biden’s campaign as incumbent. Kristol and Carville also consider how the outcome of Trump’s New York trial, a debate in June (if it happens!), the conventions, and other upcoming events could shape the race.

Is today's anti-liberalism a new phenomenon in American politics? What might earlier eras in US history have to teach us? To discuss these questions, we are joined, again, by Robert Kagan, the historian and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Drawing on his new book, Rebellion: How Antiliberalism Is Tearing America Apart—Again, Kagan argues that we “don’t realize that the [anti-liberal] movement we’re looking at today has been visible in every generation since the founding.” Kagan draws particular attention to the 1920s, when anti-immigration sentiment, white identity politics, and sympathy for authoritarian figures were prevalent in America. Kagan notes that the MAGA movement can be understood as a part of a long history of anti-liberalism that runs counter to the tradition of the founders, yet remains endemic to American democracy. Liberal democracy in America thus needs to be fought for and cannot simply be assumed.

Where do things stand in Ukraine? How will the recently-passed aid package help Ukraine on the battlefield? How does the war in Ukraine relate to rising threats from adversaries around the globe? To discuss these questions we are joined again by Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Kagan explains that Ukraine continues to face serious difficulties, in part because of a critical shortage of weapons as a result of the delay in US support. Yet the recently-passed aid package should bolster defenses against Russia’s anticipated assault this summer, and potentially help Ukraine to make gains in a counteroffensive early next year. Reflecting on the war and the world situation more broadly, Kagan points to the rising alliances among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea as a comprehensive threat to the free world. As he puts it: “These countries disagree about a lot of things. They don’t share a common ideology. But they do share a common enemy: us.… We have to recognize [it] is an entente that aims to take us down, and we have to be resisting every part of it.”

What was it like serving in the Trump administration—and what might a second Trump term look like? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Mark Esper, Secretary of Defense from 2019-2020. In this Conversation, Esper considers Ukraine, China, and other foreign policy challenges facing the United States, and reflects on his experience leading the Department of Defense during the Trump administration. Esper discusses accomplishments of American foreign policy during those years, but also raises deep concern about Trump’s attempts to politicize the military and his placing unsuitable personnel at the center of key foreign policy decision-making. And he argues that these tendencies, which were kept partially under wraps in the first term, could prove to be more alarming in a second—especially considering Trump’s increasing priority of selecting personnel based on personal loyalty. In a time of what he calls “great power competition with Russia and China,” Esper argues it is vital to have a strong foreign policy team in place—and dangerous to have a bad one.

Where do things stand in the 2024 race? What campaign strategies might increase Joe Biden’s chances? How might the economy, the border, wars in Europe and the Middle East, Trump's trials, and third-party campaigns affect the race? To discuss these questions, we are joined by David Axelrod, chief strategist for Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns in 2008 and 2012. Axelrod explains: “I would not count on the shock and dismay of people over the fact that [Trump] is under 91 criminal indictments, or that he engineered an insurrection, and so on. I think you’re going to get that [vote] for free, but it’s not enough to win.” According to Axelrod, the Biden campaign also should not be complacent in thinking that touting Biden’s achievements during his first term will be enough. Instead, he argues, Biden needs to focus on the economic challenges people face today—while framing the election as a contrast between Biden and Trump, and not simply as a referendum on Biden’s presidency.

What do Joe Biden's successes, failures, and poll numbers reveal about the state of the Democratic Party today? In an era of polarization, can a spirit of moderation and bipartisanship be rediscovered? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Joe Klein, the veteran reporter, author, and analyst of American politics. Klein reflects on the changes of the Democratic Party over recent decades, including his perspective on the elevation of identity politics over unity. According to Klein, the Biden administration has been reasonably effective, but often has not been able to move the Democrats, or the country, beyond narrow interest-group politics. In the face of demagoguery from the Trump movement, Klein calls for a reinvigorated politics of moderation that can draw on the best traditions of both parties. Klein also shares fascinating personal reflections about reporting on and interacting with leading figures including Bill and Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Two years into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? What are Vladimir Putin’s war aims and how is attempting to undermine American commitment and resolve? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Timothy Snyder, a Yale historian and leading expert on Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe. Noting impressive successes in recent weeks despite the lack of weapons supply from the United States, Snyder argues that “this is still a war that Ukraine can win. But it depends upon whether they have allies who are capable of seeing the political stakes and capable of behaving in a way which is consistent with simple military logic, which is what do you need to do to help your ally to win.” Persuading Americans that Ukraine cannot win, or even that a Russian victory would be preferable, is an integral part of Vladimir Putin’s war strategy. According to Snyder, Putin knows he cannot win on the battlefield if the West musters its collective energy to Ukrainian victory, but believes he can win by influencing our political debates about international engagement and support for the war. Defeating Russia, Snyder explains, is vital not only for Ukraine, but also for America and our allies. Kristol and Snyder also discuss how understanding fascism might help us to comprehend contemporary Russian politics and other political developments around the world.

Where does the 2024 presidential race stand? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates, and how might such an unpopular rematch play out? What could happen if it's not Biden and Trump? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik, former political director in the Clinton White House and author of this week’s important New York Times op-ed, “Biden Can’t Count on Trump’s Unpopularity Anymore.” According to Sosnik, a Biden campaign strategy of aiming to “disqualify" Trump in the minds of voters is insufficient: Biden also must make an affirmative case for a second term while overcoming doubts about his age and health. Because the polarization in the country remains so intense, another Biden v. Trump race would be a world of “high floors and low ceilings.” According to Sosnik, Trump—now slightly ahead in the polls—is "bumping up to the high end of his ceiling,” while “Biden is bumping up to the bottom of his floor.” Kristol and Sosnik also consider the possible effects of a third-party challenge in a polarized environment, and how the race might take shape if either Trump or Biden is not renominated.

Summing up the state of the 2024 race as we head toward the South Carolina primaries, veteran Republican pollster Whit Ayres says if the election were held today “Trump would win … in the Electoral College.” Yet despite Trump’s quasi-incumbency, 40-45% of the Republican primary electorate have voted for other candidates to date. According to Ayres, Trump suffers from some major weaknesses as a candidate, which leave an opening for Nikki Haley—and portend problems for Trump in a general election. But Biden may be even weaker. As Ayres puts it, “the vast majority of Americans, including a vast majority of Democrats, think Biden is just too old to serve effectively…and virtually no one in either party thinks Kamala Harris is ready for prime time.” Despite the appearance of stability in the race—the increasing likelihood of a 2020 rematch—Ayres notes that a full 2/3 of Americans are unhappy with the choice between Biden and Trump. Kristol and Ayres consider how, beneath the surface, the 2024 contest may be unstable—with the potential for domestic and geopolitical events to intervene, and third-party challenges that could upend the race.

What are the latest developments in the US-China relationship? What can we learn from recent elections in Taiwan? How does the CCP view the wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Princeton professor Aaron Friedberg. Considering the situation in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, Friedberg argues that we face distinct but overlapping challenges from “increasingly aggressive authoritarian powers.” According to Friedberg, China has supported our rivals out of the belief that “conflict wears us down, deflects our attention from the Indo-Pacific region, and contributes to divisions emerging in this country over foreign policy in a way we haven’t seen in some years.” Kristol and Friedberg also discuss the deepening divisions in the country over foreign policy, and consider how a Republican or Democratic victory in November could affect the global security situation.

Three months after October 7 and amidst the ongoing war in Gaza, what is the national mood in Israel? How are the partisan divisions which gripped Israel in recent years playing out in wartime? How will this war change Israel? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Peter Berkowitz, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and longtime analyst of Israeli politics and society. Having just returned from Israel, Berkowitz observes that the enormity of the Hamas attack within Israel’s borders threatens a core principle of Zionism, which promised that Jews would be safe in their own homeland. In the face of this, Israelis have displayed a remarkable unity around the cause of defeating Hamas and returning the hostages. Yet the partisan divisions that existed before the war persist, along with a deep trauma and anger stemming from recriminations about the failure to protect the nation from the attack on October 7. Across the political elite and among Israelis more generally, there is a new reckoning about the profound threats Israel faces—not only from Hamas, but also from Hezbollah, and from Tehran.

What is anti-Semitism? Why is Israel under attack on college campuses? In this Conversation, released originally in 2014, Bill Kristol spoke with Ruth Wisse, a distinguished professor of Yiddish Literature who taught at Harvard for many years and is one of the world’s leading experts on anti-Semitism. Wisse explains anti-Semitism as a political phenomenon, which she defines as “the political organization of politics against the Jews.” She also shares her perspective on anti-Semitism and anti-Israel animus on college campuses, which has intensified since the Hamas attack on Israel on 10/7.

Has Donald Trump changed since he first ran for president in 2015? How is he conducting his campaign now? What might a second Trump term look like? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Jonathan Karl, Chief Washington Correspondent for ABC News and author of Tired of Winning: Donald Trump and the End of the Grand Old Party. Trump’s 2024 campaign is "based on grievance and revenge,” according to Karl. And he is concerned “we’ll have a constitutional crisis from day one,” because many who upheld the rule of law during Trump's first term would not be around in a second. Karl shows how Trump and his closest advisers now are more determined to root out ordinary members of the bureaucracy who oppose Trump—the so-called “Deep State”—and to weaken Republicans who are not Trump acolytes. What could be a defining feature of the second term, Karl explains, is the highest offices of the land being selected based on personal loyalty to Donald Trump rather than on policy experience or competency.

To what extent was the Iranian regime involved in Hamas’s attack on Israel? What role are other Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah playing in the conflict—and where do things stand with Iran’s quest for a nuclear weapon? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and one of the leading historians and analysts of Iran. Takeyh explains that the survival of Hamas remains a key strategic goal for Iran in sustaining its “axis of resistance” to threaten Israel. The regime also uses these paramilitary assets including Hezbollah, and especially its nuclear program, to deter the United States and Israel from responding directly against Iran. Takeyh also reflects on Iran’s relationship with Russia and China, its role in the Ukraine War, and the threat to global order posed by the alliance of authoritarian states.

Since Hamas launched its brutal attack on Israel on October 7, the Middle East is the site of a new war, which could escalate in ways that are unpredictable and dangerous. In Europe, the Ukraine War grinds on—with an outcome very much in doubt. China continues to threaten US allies in East Asia. Decisions, calculations, and miscalculations made in Washington, Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing could unleash still greater geopolitical and military threats at any moment. As Eric Edelman notes, we are facing “the most complex and dangerous moment in international security since the end of the Second World War.” In this Conversation, Edelman explains how the wars in the Middle East and Europe, as well as tensions in East Asia, are very much interconnected, and threaten American interests and the global order. Faced with this extremely dangerous situation, Edelman argues for a concerted national strategy of supporting American allies in Europe and the Middle East, deterring enemies, and rapidly building up America’s industrial and military strength. Kristol and Edelman also discuss how political disorder at home threatens our ability to deal with the threats we face abroad.

What is the state of the economy today? To discuss, we are joined, again, by Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was deputy director of the National Economic Council during the Financial Crisis and then served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obama’s second term. In this Conversation, Furman highlights a significant paradox of the current moment. On one hand, important indicators point to a reasonably strong economy: inflation has been slowing, wages have been rising, and unemployment remains low. On the other hand, Americans remain frustrated about prices and concerned about the future. To Furman, this disconnect speaks to the inability of the data to capture fully the psychological aspects of how inflation and other factors in the economy affect expectations. Furman also shares his concerns about a possible debt crisis if the US cannot get its fiscal house in order.

Where do things stand in Ukraine? What are the battlefield results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive so far, and what military and political outcomes might follow? Why should the US and allies continue to support Ukraine? To discuss these questions we are joined again by Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Kagan presents a granular account of recent fighting around Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. Noting that Ukraine’s counteroffensive has moved slowly, he explains that the war has not reached a stalemate: “The Russians have not shown the ability to stop the Ukrainians from making advances.” Nonetheless, the situation remains highly uncertain, and Kagan argues there is an urgent need for the US and allies to continue supporting Ukraine. Kristol and Kagan also discuss the debate about the war in the United States, the effects of Russian propaganda, and consider what we’ve learned about Ukrainian and Western resolve from the war.

t’s 14 months before the presidential election. With a Trump v. Biden matchup on the horizon, veteran Democratic strategist James Carville begins with a bracing assessment: “If this election was this November…Biden would be a betting underdog.” In this Conversation, James Carville shares his concerns about Biden’s candidacy and his perspective on the race ahead. Should other Democrats challenge Biden and get into the primary race? Is Trump inevitable on the Republican side? What factors might confound our expectations? In this witty, wide-ranging, and thoughtful Conversation—our 250th episode!—Carville and Kristol reflect on these questions and other factors that might upend our politics as we head toward the 2024 presidential election. As we release episode 250, we want to thank our viewers and listeners who have been with us since the beginning—and those who are joining us now. It’s been quite a time. And we have no intention of slowing down.

How has American strategic analysis and policy planning toward China developed over the last few years? What parallels can we draw between the early Cold War and America’s geopolitical situation today? How has the war in Ukraine affected US-China competition? To discuss these questions we are joined, again, by Stephen Rosen, Harvard professor emeritus of government. Rosen argues that American government and civil society are beginning to take geopolitical competition with China much more seriously. He notes that, much like the Korean War, Putin’s War in Ukraine could serve as a galvanizing event that could lead the US to make the kind of economic and political commitments necessary to deter China in the long term. In a wide-ranging and historically rich Conversation, Rosen explains why talent, technological innovation, and forward-thinking military planning all will be essential for America to meet the China challenge.

Where do things stand in the Republican primary field after the first debate? How strong is Trump? How have the other candidates done so far? How might the Trump trials affect the race as we head into primary season? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. Though Trump remains the strong favorite, Ayres argues that the forthcoming trials make the race more unpredictable than it might seem from simply reading current polling data. Ayres and Kristol also assess the debate performances and candidacies of Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Chris Christie, and Vivek Ramaswamy—and consider what each might have to do to break out in the race and take on the frontrunner.

How significant is the indictment of Donald Trump in the Jan 6 case? How might the case play out in court, and in our politics? According to Ryan Goodman, a professor of law at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of NYU Law’s Just Security blog, the indictment in the Jan 6 case is a momentous development in the legal maelstrom Trump faces, with potentially significant consequences for the 2024 election. Goodman argues that the Jan 6 case likely will differ dramatically from the Congressional hearings—not least because key figures including former Vice President Mike Pence, Rudy Giuliani, and Mark Meadows will be compelled to testify in court. Goodman suggests that the prosecution may succeed in “flipping” some in Trump’s inner circle to become cooperating witnesses in the case. Cautioning that much remains unknown about the timeline, and the political ramifications of it, Goodman argues it’s plausible a trial and verdict might occur before the 2024 elections.

With the recent rollout of ChatGPT and the development of other generative artificial intelligence, the future of AI—and its potential implications for national defense, economics, and society—has become a topic of urgent inquiry. To discuss where things stand with AI, we are joined by Royal Hansen, Vice President of Engineering for Privacy, Safety, and Security at Google. Hansen explains the breakthroughs achieved over the past decade, and the profound implications that powerful software and computing have brought to domains from language translation and music to medicine, national security, logistics, and other dynamic areas of the economy. Noting the potential of AI for use as well as misuse, Hansen explains why we need to develop thoughtful safeguards in the development of new technologies. According to Hansen, already we are benefiting from just the "low hanging fruit"—as seen in the developments in language translation and other generative AI available today. But the potential for breakthroughs in other fields likely are closer than might have been imagined just a few years ago.

Where do things stand in the Republican primary field? Is Trump inevitable, or could DeSantis or another candidate prevail? What do voters, donors, and party officials think of the prospects of a Trump v. Biden rematch as we head toward 2024? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. The broad contours of the race on the Republican side, by the numbers, have been remarkably stable since November—and at the same time the months ahead could be unusually unpredictable. According to Ayres, Trump must be considered the favorite to win the Republican nomination especially as Ron DeSantis, who had gained ground after his landslide victory in the Florida gubernatorial race, has faded in recent months. Nonetheless, Ayres contends that Trump’s nomination is far from a foregone conclusion. The current and possible criminal indictments of Trump could matter, and other possible Republicans could gain momentum. Ayres and Kristol consider the prospects of the various Republican candidates, discuss possible surprises over the next six months, as well as the question of Biden's renomination—and reflect on why 2024 may not follow familiar patterns of past elections.

How did American politics become so polarized—and what are the key fault lines today? In an evenly-divided electorate, what are the implications for the political parties as we look ahead to 2024 and beyond? Is there a way out of hyper-partisanship and deadlock, and toward moderation? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik , former political director for President Bill Clinton and author of a recent memo The Road to a Political Realignment in American Politics. As Sosnik puts it: In a sharp contrast to a previous era, college educated voters are now more likely to identify as Democrats, and those without college degrees – particularly white voters, but increasingly all Americans – support Republicans. Voting at all levels of federal and state elections demonstrates this overwhelming trend of the diploma divide. Whereas in the past the axiom that all politics is local rang true, these days the more accurate truism is that all politics is national. Sosnik draws out the implications of this divide for 2024 and beyond. He argues that the nature and intensity of our polarization means the premium for attracting swing voters, and not repelling them, is greater than ever. In sum, he argues that—more than any other single factor—the voters who decide the next elections will put a premium on candidates who are not crazy!

What is the substance of the federal indictment against Donald Trump for mishandling classified documents? How could the case play out in the legal system, and in our politics? Are future indictments likely? Could these matters alter the political landscape in advance of the 2024 elections? According to Ryan Goodman, a professor of law at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of NYU Law’s Just Security blog, the indictment of Donald Trump is a momentous development. Trying the case against Trump will be complex, Goodman argues, because of uncertainties—the presiding judge, the classified nature of the material, and how close we are to 2024—which could introduce some wild zigs and zags to the case. And yet, he argues, it is possible there could be a trial by next summer. Goodman argues that other indictments likely are forthcoming, too. Cases against Trump for his role in January 6th, as well as electoral fraud, also might be heard in advance of the election—possibly featuring testimony from key figures in Trump’s inner circle like Mike Pence and Mark Meadows. Much remains unknown, but Goodman contends that there will be a lot to follow on these matters in the months and year ahead.

How should we think about immigration in American life today? How well do today’s immigrants do—economically and culturally—compared to the immigrants of previous eras? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Princeton economist Leah Boustan. Drawing on rigorous analysis of data for her important co-authored work in economic history Streets of Gold: America’s Untold Story of Immigrant Success, Boustan explains a perhaps surprising fact: despite all of the differences between contemporary America and that of past generations, immigrants today are faring similarly to previous immigrants in terms of how quickly their earnings grow after they arrive in the country, and especially in terms of how well their children are doing in their own upward mobility and earnings. Moreover, Boustan explains how today’s immigrants are assimilating culturally in much the same way as in earlier eras. Boustan considers the challenges and benefits of immigration in the context of the broader economy—and pushes back against arguments for the restricting of immigration that rely excessively on analysis and data that consider only very short-term implications. Above all, she argues that immigration, then and now, has been in the United States an astonishing story of success.

What did we learn about Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign from last week’s CNN town hall? How should we assess Ron DeSantis’s prospective candidacy so far? What are Joe Biden’s strengths and weaknesses as we head into the 2024 race? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran reporter and commentator A.B. Stoddard. Stoddard shares her perspective on why Trump remains the force in the Republican field—and how DeSantis has yet to live up to early expectations. Turning to the Democrats, Stoddard explains how outperforming expectations in the 2022 midterms helped Joe Biden to secure a lock on his party’s nomination. Nonetheless, she notes that many Democrats remain jittery about Biden’s age and prospects. As things stand, she argues, the improbable rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump seems likely despite being unpopular across a broad swath of the American public.

Where do things stand in Ukraine as the war enters its fifteenth month? What must Ukraine accomplish on the battlefield in its long-anticipated counteroffensive? What can the US and allies do to support Ukraine now? To discuss these questions we are joined again by Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Kagan notes that Russian forces have been seriously degraded in the war thanks to the impressive defense mounted by the Ukrainians. Nonetheless, the situation remains highly uncertain, and much depends on whether Ukraine succeeds in a counteroffensive in the months ahead. Kagan argues there is an urgent need for the US and allies to do more now to step up military and financial support for Ukraine as it attempts to drive Russia back from strategically vital territory. Kagan explains that a stalemate on the battlefield likely would enable a future Russian invasion of Ukraine—and also could have grave consequences geopolitically. The failure to support Ukraine toward some kind of victory, he argues, would set a dangerous precedent likely to be exploited by China and other adversaries around the globe.

What are the prospects for Biden, Trump, DeSantis, and other potential candidates as we head to 2024? How will the media respond to the challenges of covering presidential politics in the current era? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Dan Balz, chief correspondent of The Washington Post and a veteran analyst of American politics and the media. In a wide-ranging Conversation, Balz reflects on the ways in which both media and politics still are very much shaped by—and often orchestrated by—Donald Trump. The intensity of the interest in the former president especially compared to the current president underscores how unlikely it is we'll see a return to the pre-2015 political or media environment. Kristol and Balz also consider how 2024 may differ from previous races, and how that could affect both the strategies and coverage of Biden, Trump, DeSantis, and others.

The period between World War I and World War II has long been a reference point in foreign policy debates, yet much about the period remains in dispute. Why did the United States turn away from internationalism after the First World War? Could the US have shaped an enduring liberal world order in the 1920s? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Robert Kagan, the historian and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. According to Kagan, Usually the peace is lost at a time when the threats are not obvious, and the need to do something is not obvious. Drawing on his recent book The Ghost at the Feast, Kagan highlights the centrality of American leadership to any peaceful world order, and contends it was not inevitable the US would turn away from Europe and Asia in the 1920s. He draws particular attention to the interrelation of domestic politics to foreign policy, and considers the possibility of how under different domestic circumstances Woodrow Wilson’s internationalism might have succeeded. Kagan points to an enduring paradox of American foreign policy: Americans will not tolerate a real serious assault on liberalism in the world writ large, but they are perfectly willing to ignore what’s going on until that challenge appears unmistakably—and they feel they have no choice. Yet the decisions of the 1920s and 1930s, and of the last eighty years, reveal the profound consequences of inaction as well as action.

How serious a threat to the economy is the current turmoil in the banking sector? What are the prospects for a soft landing—or more turbulence ahead? How should we think about the challenge of combating inflation? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was deputy directory of the National Economic Council during the Financial Crisis and then served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obama’s second term. In this Conversation, Furman shares his candid assessment of the current challenges in the macroeconomy: Unless you have [a] soft landing, which I think is unlikely, there’s a recession out there. I used to think the recession was more second half of this year or first half of next year. The banking crisis may move that forward, he says. Yet Furman explains how dynamic is the situation, and lays out several plausible scenarios as well as his views on the key indicators to look for in the months ahead. Furman also reflects on the American economy more broadly, and shares his perspective on the future of inflation and interest rates, debt and deficits, productivity, and immigration.

How has China responded to Russia’s War in Ukraine, and what lessons could the CCP draw from the course of the war? How has the war and other recent developments affected US-China relations—and how should the US and allies advance the cause of deterring China? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Princeton professor Aaron Friedberg. While China has been cautious about intervening directly on behalf of Russia in the war, Friedberg explains that much is at stake for the CCP in Vladimir Putin not losing. Friedberg argues that continued American and allied support for victory by Ukraine would have a strong effect in deterring China and its ambitions to reshape the geopolitical order. He notes that over the last few years Americans increasingly have come to understand the grave military and economic threat to the US posed by China. To meet this challenge, he argues the US must brace itself for a potentially long period of strategic competition with China—and work in concert with allies to develop new networks of military, technological, and political capacities.

One year into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? What have we learned about the character of Ukraine, Putin’s war aims, the fault lines in European politics, and America's resolve? Why should the West continue to support Ukraine? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Anne Applebaum, a leading scholar of Ukraine and Pulitzer Prize winning historian. According to Applebaum, Ukraine’s impressive strength speaks to Ukraine’s virtues in defending itself—as a free country—through an appeal to liberal nationalism and patriotism. This is why an independent Ukraine represents such a threat to Putin’s regime. And Putin remains very clear about his war aims: the destruction of Ukraine as an independent nation. We must not allow this to happen, Applebaum argues, because a Russian victory not only would imperil Ukraine but also the whole European order, and embolden autocratic regimes like China around the globe. An expert analyst of European politics, Applebaum also reflects on responses to the war by European nations, and describes how current Polish-German relations present tensions in the alliance.

What were the major political and diplomatic issues that Israel’s founders faced in 1948? How did they inform the writing of Israel’s Declaration of Independence? What can Israel’s Declaration teach us about natural and historic rights, the relationship of religion and state, and the meaning of national sovereignty? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Neil Rogachevsky, a scholar of Israel studies and political thought at Yeshiva University in New York and co-author, with Dov Zigler, of the forthcoming book: Israel’s Declaration of Independence. Rogachevsky tells the riveting story of the composition of Israel’s Declaration of Independence. Its first draft, he explains, was a collaboration between an American rabbi and a young Israeli lawyer, and produced a text that fundamentally drew upon America’s Declaration of Independence, which blended natural rights and Jewish justifications for the Jewish state. Rogachevsky narrates the drama of the weeks and days leading up to the eve of independence on May 14, 1948, as the Declaration weaved its way through the bureaucracy of the state-to-be before landing on the desk of Israel’s first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion. Ben-Gurion had to make monumental decisions about the character of the state and its relationship to the outside world. His choices, Rogachevsky argues, fundamentally shaped modern Israel—and offer lessons about democracy, rights, sovereignty, religion, and statecraft that resonate to this day.

Eleven months into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? What does the West need to do to help Ukraine win? What lessons can we draw from the war about the ambitions of authoritarians, the resolve of liberal democracies today, and the most pressing geopolitical challenges we face? To discuss these questions, Bill Kristol is joined by Francis Fukuyama, the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, who has led important efforts in education and civil society in Ukraine over the last decade. According to Fukuyama, we are in the midst of a difficult moment in the war. Nonetheless, he argues, the fundamental dynamics remain unchanged: Ukraine can win if it receives adequate military and financial support from the West. Fukuyama argues that Ukraine’s impressive performance and Russia’s weakness should force us to confront and reassess the fashionable narrative of pessimism about liberal democracies. The war, as well as other recent developments, has revealed the reserves of strength and resilience in liberal democracies, while the weaknesses of strong states such as Russia and China have become more apparent. This assessment is not one of complacency. Rather, Fukuyama points to the high stakes of the war—and the importance of strengthening our resolve to defend free countries against authoritarian threats.

Where do things stand two years into Biden's presidency? Should he seek reelection? What other prospective Democratic candidates might emerge in the months ahead? What are the odds Trump will be the Republican nominee, and what might a Republican primary field look like? To consider these questions, we are joined by James Carville, the veteran Democratic strategist. While praising Biden’s accomplishments, and in particular his handling of the war in Ukraine, Carville argues it could be best for the country for Biden to pass the torch to the next generation and not seek reelection. On the Republican side, Carville and Kristol assess Donald Trump’s prospects, and the opportunities for challengers like Ron DeSantis and Brian Kemp. Carville contends that Trump’s downward trajectory is striking—gone pecan, as they say in Louisiana. But he acknowledges that the former president still could win the nomination as a result of Republicans’ winner-take-all primary contests and the strong attachment to Trump by a significant faction within the Republican Party. Carville also reflects more broadly on the state of our politics, including the persistence of MAGA policies and attitudes even beyond Trump, and the question of whether the threat to the Democratic Party posed by identity Left politics has peaked.

A professor of linguistics at Columbia University and author of the recent book Woke Racism, John McWhorter has been an outspoken critic of woke politics. The appeal to wokeness, he argues, presents a simplistic view of race and attempts to discredit any contrary points of view about ideas and policies. According to McWhorter, the woke end up having disproportionate power simply because of what social media allows them to do to people. He argues that we should stand up to them—and focus on developing policies that can help people rather than shutting down debate.

Where do things stand with Covid-19? How has the emergence of the Omicron variant changed the situation? What can we expect in the short term and throughout 2022? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. While noting that much still remains unknown about the Omicron variant, Jha suggests that the United States likely will be in for a challenging few months: We have a lot of data that Omicron is going to spread very rapidly. But that doesn’t answer the question as to whether it’s more contagious inherently, or is it evading our immune response. It’s probably a combination of both. There is now pretty clear data that our vaccines will be pushed to the wall on this. The good news, according to Jha, is our vaccines—especially taken with booster doses—likely will maintain strong protection against hospitalization and serious illness. The bad news is there still are a relatively large number of unvaccinated Americans who are particularly vulnerable. While explaining the situation, Jha also shares his perspective on the public policy and public health choices we have faced in recent months. Jha reflects on what he views as significant failures of the government, particularly the pace of the rollout of boosters and rapid tests. Finally, Jha and Kristol discuss possible paths forward in 2022 and what data we should keep our eyes on from the UK and the rest of the globe.

In a recent essay, Shep Melnick, a distinguished scholar of American politics at Boston College, writes: Few federal laws have achieved their initial objective more completely than Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972. Yet today Title IX is more controversial than ever before. The story of its evolution is a cautionary tale about how good intentions and broadly shared goals can become distorted over time by aggressive cultural combat, and how hard it can be to reverse the damage. In this Conversation, and expounding on themes addressed in his book The Transformation of Title IX: Regulating Gender Equality in Education, Melnick traces the transformation of Title IX from 1972 until the present. Conceived as an initiative that would prevent sex discrimination on campus, Title IX, as Melnick explains, became a catchall source for rules and regulations in higher education regarding sexual assault, sexual harassment, and offensive speech. Melnick argues that the Obama administration's heavy-handed approach to Title IX enforcement created serious threats to due process and free speech on campus. Melnick praises the more recent efforts of the Department of Education in the Trump administration to roll back some of these problematic guidelines. Finally, he considers why the Biden administration—and universities and colleges—are hesitant to return to the Obama-era policies.

Why have the costs of basic goods and services been increasing in recent months? Will shortages in stores and delays in orders for durable goods persist—and what is the meaning of the often invoked supply-chain issues? What public policies might help ameliorate the situation? In this Conversation, Scott Lincicome, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, considers the dynamics of the economy during the pandemic—the fiscal stimulus, accommodative monetary policy, dislocations in the global supply chain—and considers possible paths forward beyond the Covid era. He points to container ships backed up in our major ports as an example of how a sclerotic regulatory framework can worsen a serious problem and increase our vulnerability to a threat like supply shocks. Lincicome recommends modernizing infrastructure via automation, increasing our workforce via immigration, and improving our resilience via deregulation.

In recent years, immigration has become a major flashpoint in our politics. Our increasingly rancorous quarrels often serve to obscure rather than clarify policy choices, and make it more difficult to achieve sound policies. As a result, even as attention is given to problems at the border, surprisingly little attention is paid to reforming our broken immigration system. In this Conversation, Linda Chavez, a longtime analyst of immigration and immigration policy, explains that our outdated laws are urgently in need of repair. Chavez points out key areas where the nation as a whole would benefit from new policies, and discusses the obstacles to legislating or implementing them. In particular, President Trump campaigned on immigration restriction and pressed federal agencies to curb immigration in various ways, policies that candidate Biden opposed—but to this point the Biden administration mostly has avoided coming to grips with many aspects of the immigration issue. As a result, important questions like the status of those who were brought to the US as children (DACA), backlogs, delays, unused slots for green cards, problems at the border, and other issues remain unresolved. Chavez outlines an approach to immigration that rejects any idea of open borders but recognizes the value of immigration to the long-term success of the United States—and encourages a streamlining of the immigration process that is beneficial for the economy, good for Americans, and good for immigrants.

But since my intent is to write something useful to whoever understands it, it has appeared to me more fitting to go directly to the effectual truth of the thing than to the imagination of it. — Niccolo Machiavelli, in Chapter 15 of The Prince. According to Harvey Mansfield, these lines including the phrase effectual truth—a term invented by Machiavelli—are central to Machiavelli’s founding of the revolution in philosophy, science, and politics that we call modernity. In this Conversation—our 200th episode!—our first and most frequent guest Harvey Mansfield returns to the program to discuss his recent work on Machiavelli, and presents an incisive and provocative account of some of the more challenging and too-little-understood aspects of Machiavelli’s teaching. In particular, Mansfield draws out the world-historical significance of Machiavelli’s discovery or invention of the effectual truth and shows why Machiavelli can justly be called the founder of modernity. This Conversation has also been added to the Harvey Mansfield site on Contemporary Thinkers and the Machiavelli site on Great Thinkers.

In a recent law review article, University of Chicago law professor William Baude writes, After the 2020 presidential election, the peaceful transfer of power can no longer be taken for granted. How well did our institutions respond to the challenges? What vulnerabilities in our electoral processes and loopholes in our laws represent the most critical threats for the future? In this Conversation, Baude shares his perspective on the 2020 presidential election and its aftermath—and particularly the efforts in certain states and in Congress led by President Trump and those who fought for him to overturn the electoral victory of Joe Biden. Baude explains how these efforts to subvert the election create a dangerous precedent. Baude contends that the courts and other institutions resisted the attempt to overturn the election reasonably well. But, he argues, we cannot be complacent about concerted attempts to undermine the electoral process, and the threats to the rule of law in the years ahead.

Eight months into his presidency, how is Joe Biden doing politically? How should we understand the current dynamics in the Democratic and Republican parties? What key things should we look for as we head toward the midterm elections in 2022? To consider these questions, we are joined by veteran Democratic strategist Joe Trippi, a shrewd and incisive analyst of our politics and our parties. As Trippi sees it, and noting Liz Cheney’s removal from House leadership, the Republican Party is locked in to a series of loyalty tests around Donald Trump, which diminish the party's appeal to independent voters. The Democrats' problem is they are divided, and currently facing quarrels in Congress between the moderate and progressive wings of the party. For the Democrats to succeed in the midterms, in Trippi’s view, Biden must be perceived as generally successful at managing the concrete challenges the country faces, while the Democrats in Congress must grow up and help Biden pass popular legislation. Further, the Democrats need to broader their tent to include more independents and former Republicans. Kristol and Trippi also consider what the primary elections of the Democrats and Republicans between now and the midterms will reveal about the direction of the parties.

Donald Kagan (1932 - 2021), who passed away this summer, was a preeminent historian of both the ancient and modern worlds. In 2015, we were privileged to host Professor Kagan for a wide-ranging Conversation about the major themes of his work. We are pleased to re-release the Conversation here. In the Conversation, Kagan and Kristol discuss what humanity's greatest wars—from the Peloponnesian War to World War II—can teach us about the nature of war and the sources of human conflict. Kagan also discusses his education in history at Brooklyn College, his groundbreaking work on Thucydides, and his distinguished teaching career at Yale. Finally, Kristol and Kagan discuss the state of the study of history and the liberal arts more generally in America.

How will the American withdrawal from Afghanistan influence US-China relations? How should we understand China’s geostrategic ambitions—and the threat to Taiwan in particular? How is America dealing with the challenge? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Princeton professor Aaron Friedberg, author of A Contest for Supremacy and the forthcoming Getting China Wrong. Friedberg explains how Americans often have misunderstood and underestimated the challenge from China on political, economic, and technological fronts. Friedberg calls for an integrated approach in which the US, in concert with allies, develops an alternative to the current paradigm—building and developing networks of industrial, technological, and political capacities in order to defend ourselves and Western principles. This is a timely and important Conversation that can help us think through the many political choices required to sustain a more effective strategy for countering the threat posed by China.

Civilian control over the military, and a non-partisan military, have been bedrock principles of American government since the founding of the country. In recent times, however, significant strains have developed in our civil-military relations. Why should we be alarmed about the growing politicization of the military in America? Why must partisan neutrality prevail, and why must civilians avoid using the military to advance their own partisan causes? In this Conversation, Eric Edelman shares his perspective. Edelman organized an important letter in January 2021, signed by all living former secretaries of defense, reminding military and civilians at the Defense Department that the peaceful transfers of power...are hallmarks of our democracy. The need for such a letter, according to Edelman, underscores how the bedrock principles of American civil-military relations have been challenged, especially within the last years, both from within the ranks and in our politics. In this timely and urgent discussion, Edelman explains how we have reached the current situation. He calls for reinforcing the norm of keeping the military out of partisan politics—and politicians not seeking military support for partisan aims.

Written by Alexander Hamilton, James Madison, and John Jay to defend the ratification of the Constitution, The Federalist has long been recognized as a fundamental text in American political thought. Yet the complexity and subtlety of The Federalist as a work often is not sufficiently appreciated. In this Conversation, David Epstein, author of The Political Theory of The Federalist, (1984), shares his perspective on why The Federalist should be taken seriously as a work of political thought, and on its enduring importance. Epstein guides us through central themes including representation, the separation of powers, the roles of interests and ambition in politics, and how popular government can be made to be good government. Throughout, we come to see the complex character of The Federalist—and its sometimes surprising point of view on these fundamental aspects of American government. Finally, Epstein and Kristol consider the ways in which The Federalist, irrespective of our own political choices or policy preferences, remains a vital source for learning to think about politics.

Where do things stand with Covid-19? How has the emergence of the Delta variant changed the situation? How might things look in the US as we had into the fall? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. Jha explains why the highly-contagious Delta variant, coupled with greater-than-anticipated resistance to vaccines, now threatens a return to normalcy that seemed on track throughout the late spring. Today, all Americans have ready access to vaccines that are extraordinarily effective at preventing hospitalization and death. Jha stresses that exposure to Covid now is much more likely than just a few weeks ago, perhaps inevitable, so the choice in America now is binary: to get vaccinated, or get infected. Jha and Kristol consider choices in public policy and in the private sector we face now including whether to mandate vaccines, the role of the CDC and FDA, and the global dimension of the pandemic—and the ramifications of these choices as we look ahead to the reopening of schools, business, and other indoor activities, in the months ahead.

First released in June 2014, this Conversation is the first in our series of Conversations with Harvard government professor Harvey Mansfield, one of the leading students of political philosophy. In it, Mansfield reflects on the importance of studying political philosophy and discusses, in brief, his work on great thinkers of political philosophy such as Edmund Burke, Alexis de Tocqueville, and Niccolo Machiavelli. He also discusses the influence of Leo Strauss on his work. This Conversation offers a great introduction to Mansfield's thought and work. It is very much worth revisiting for those who heard it at the time and it serves as a great introduction to Mansfield's work for those who may be new to it.

The Biden Administration has announced that all American troops will withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of August. This would, in Biden’s words, bring to end America’s longest war. In this Conversation, Eric Edelman shares his perspective on the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan. While recognizing the challenge of rallying the nation throughout our long involvement in a difficult country, Edelman raises doubts about the wisdom of removing America’s small footprint in Afghanistan. Edelman considers some potentially dangerous possibilities that might follow from the withdrawal—including greater destabilization of Pakistan and the threat of loose nukes getting into the hands of jihadists. Finally, Kristol and Edelman consider constructive things the Biden administration can do to reassure allies in the region that America will remain involved even after troops leave Afghanistan.

Where do the Republican and Democratic parties stand almost six months into the Biden presidency? How could changes in emphasis and legislative priorities for each party influence the direction of our politics? What are possible paths forward for the parties' electoral coalitions as we look toward the 2022 midterms and beyond? In this Conversation, Sean Trende, Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics and Visiting Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, shares his perspective on the latest polls and his analysis of the dynamics of the parties in this era of polarization. He presents a fascinating account of the challenges and opportunities facing the parties and candidates, today, and reflects on what we can learn from American political history.

How has America become so polarized? Has negative partisanship opened the floodgates for disinformation and propaganda in our politics? How is cancel culture related to information warfare? How can those who believe in free government fight back? In this Conversation, Jonathan Rauch, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, shares his perspective. Drawing on his new book, The Constitution of Knowledge, Rauch argues that to understand contemporary polarization, we must focus on deliberate campaigns of disinformation conducted by political actors who benefit from the weakening of institutions through the diffusion of falsehoods and conspiracy theories. Considering the phenomenon of cancel culture, Rauch argues it should be understood as a systematic attempt to weaken the expression of opinions and civil debate upon which American government rests. Though alarmed about the spread of disinformation, Rauch suggests we may be seeing the beginning of mobilization against cancel culture. He calls on those who believe in America’s constitutional government, civil society, and pluralism to stand up on behalf of those institutions.

What is the nature of comedy? How does it differ from tragedy? What can we learn from Shakespeare’s comedies that we might miss if we focus only on tragedies? In this Conversation, Paul Cantor presents a tour-de-force analysis of the nature of comedy—and explains how and why Shakespeare's comedies exemplify it. As Cantor shows, comedy portrays human beings as worse than they are in order to puncture the sometimes unrealistic and destructive aspirations for ourselves and for our desires. Comedy is therefore meant to show us it’s a mistake to take too seriously things that do not necessarily deserve to be taken seriously. Too often our pride or self-importance leads us to make much ado about nothing. Cantor explains how Shakespeare’s comedies are a necessary complement to his tragedies—and as pointing to a workable middle way between the desires and even dreams humans have, and the conventions and accommodations they need to live together and flourish.

What is the role of immigration in the history of the United States—and the idea of America? Why has America been uniquely successful at integrating immigrants while other countries often fail? What is the connection between immigration and American patriotism? Joining us to discuss is Roya Hakakian, the distinguished author and poet, who emigrated from Iran in the 1980s as a teenager. In this Conversation, Hakakian recalls her first impressions of the United States and describes her experiences as an immigrant. She then shares her perspective on why immigration to the United States has been a positive force for both America and the world—as well as her personal reflections on how immigration has contributed to the American story.

How should we analyze the economic policies advanced by the Biden Administration? What are the possible effects of the trillions of dollars in government spending and the various programs proposed by the administration? What is America’s overall economic outlook coming out of the pandemic—and how might things play out under various scenarios? Joining us to consider these questions is American Enterprise Institute scholar Stan Veuger. Analyzing Biden’s economic agenda, Veuger and Kristol address the paradox that it is both extraordinarily large in scale but doesn’t create large structural changes to the economy, as would the institution of single-payer healthcare, for example. Veuger reflects on the degree to which the territory we face in fiscal policy is uncharted: the extent of domestic spending, outside of a crisis, without sufficient tax revenue to pay for it. Veuger also addresses topics ranging from the threat of inflation to where things stand in our politics relative to immigration and trade.

What can reason tell us about rights, freedom, responsibility, and the common good? What obstacles stand in the way of human beings developing clear thoughts about politics and its role within nature? How can attention to our experiences—for example, of freedom and rights—help us understand the nature of these political phenomena? In this Conversation, Claremont McKenna philosopher Mark Blitz presents his approach to the study of politics and human nature. Drawing on his new book, Reason and Politics: The Nature of Political Phenomena, Blitz argues that we should take our bearings in the study of political things not, in the first instance, through recourse to rigid rules or theories then imposed on the world, but through an open-minded encounter with political phenomena as they come to light through our own experience of them. Employing this approach, Blitz makes a series of stark and revealing comments about the nature of rights, liberty, equality, virtue, and human excellence. Finally, Blitz explains how his approach relates to thinkers including Plato and Martin Heidegger. This is a deep, challenging, and rewarding Conversation that has something important to say to anyone interested in liberal democracy, the American regime, and the nature of politics more generally.

How has Joe Biden done in the first months of his presidency? What role might Donald Trump play in the Republican Party as we look ahead to 2022 and 2024? What challenges do the parties face—from the culture wars to economics? We are delighted to be joined for the first time on Conversations by James Carville, the veteran Democratic strategist. Carville expresses cautious optimism about the Biden presidency but highlights the fragility of the Democratic coalition—and the possibility, in 2022 and 2024, of missteps in the culture war overshadowing the successes of a Democratic administration. He warns his party about vulnerability on issues like defund the police and the talk of socialism. As for the Republicans, Carville argues that Trump is in a weaker position than one might have anticipated—and that Republicans have proven surprisingly unable to challenge Biden’s agenda much beyond opposing the Democratic Party and the media on cultural grounds. Finally, Carville shares advice for those aspiring to run for office, and shares fascinating anecdotes from his distinguished career in politics.

What makes a people a people? What forms its communal identity? The second book of the Bible, Exodus, tells of the departure of the children of Israel from Egypt, their journey through the wilderness, the giving of the law at Mount Sinai, the building of the tabernacle, and much else. Exodus and its abiding mysteries have been studied for millennia as a source for wisdom and understanding about theological questions as well as human affairs. Joining us to discuss Exodus is Dr. Leon Kass, emeritus professor at the University of Chicago and emeritus scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Kass has just published the new book Founding God’s Nation: Reading Exodus, a monumental work in which he considers Exodus in a philosophical spirit, and shares striking insights on its theology, anthropology, and especially its politics. In this Conversation, he reflects on what he has learned through his study of Exodus—and argues that, regardless of our religious affiliation or beliefs, Exodus has much to teach those who read it with an open mind.

What are the latest developments in Russia with the Putin regime? How have recent protests surrounding the arrest of opposition leader Alexei Navalny affected it? What is the nature of Putin’s power and why have his tactics so often been effective? To discuss, Bill Kristol is joined again by former world chess champion and human rights activist Garry Kasparov. According to Kasparov, the recent protests have demonstrated deep dissatisfaction in Russia with the Putin regime and the depth of its corruption. However, Kasparov notes that Putin has proven stubbornly effective at maintaining power and may yet weather this and other challenges he faces. In response to Putin’s authoritarianism, Kasparov calls for America and the leaders of the West to develop a coherent strategy for countering Putin’s aggression and for defending the principles of liberty, democracy, and free markets that have been the source of our strength.

How should we think about fiscal stimulus in an era of low interest rates? Is $1.9 trillion too much? Is the proposed relief package sufficiently well targeted? In this Conversation, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers shares his analysis of the American economy and the challenges we face. Summers argues for substantial fiscal stimulus but emphasizes the importance of investments in infrastructure that could lay the groundwork for durable economic growth. Summers warns about the dangers of inflation—and especially if the accommodative fiscal and monetary policies of the crisis era become standard practice. Finally, Kristol and Summers discuss the state of higher education and how universities should conceive of their mission today.

Where do things stand in the US and around the world with Covid-19? How is the vaccine rollout affecting the course of the pandemic? How concerned should we be about new variants? When will we get kids back in school and the country open for business again? To discuss these and other questions, we are joined by Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. While noting the possibility of threats from new variants, Jha shares a guardedly optimistic perspective on a path to relative normality over the spring and summer, and into the fall. Jha argues we should focus on essential things: leading with the vaccine rollout, complemented by efforts to ramp up testing capacity to make crowded venues safer—and that we should devote ample energy and resources to resuming in-person learning as soon as possible. According to Jha, we can do better than the recent CDC guidance suggests and should be able to reopen most schools this spring.

In this special audio release, Claremont McKenna professor of political philosophy Mark Blitz talks to Bill Kristol about German philosopher Martin Heidegger (1889 - 1976). While stressing the problematic features of Heidegger's thought and his deplorable political activity, Blitz explains why Heidegger cannot simply be ignored. Video of Blitz and Kristol's discussion about Heidegger (from 2016) is available through the Great Thinkers website, a guide to political philosophy.

What has the Covid-19 pandemic and the race for vaccines taught us about government and private sector capabilities? How should we think about questions related to free trade, the global economy, and collaboration among scientists internationally? According to Scott Lincicome, a leading international trade attorney and senior fellow at the Cato Institute, the pandemic powerfully demonstrates the importance of an America that is open to trade, scientific talent wherever it is found, and an economy that is open to the world. While not denying a pivotal role for government in the arc of scientific innovation, Lincicome argues that the private sector in America should focus on its traditional strengths in research and development while advancing trading relationships with our partners around the world. At the same time, he argues, we should resist the growing temptation to pick winners in the economy as it leads to cronyism and corruption.

While presidential transitions always present challenges, few take place in crisis situations like the one we confront today. What lessons can we learn from past transitions? How should the Biden administration navigate the complexities of the current moment? Joining us to consider these questions is Robert Gibbs, White House Press Secretary during the financial crisis and a key figure in the Obama administration. Gibbs reflects on lessons learned from that transition and experience. Turning to the present, Gibbs and Bill Kristol consider the Biden transition and the unique set of challenges the Biden administration confronts. The experience and insight Gibbs draws upon here is a valuable resource for thinking through how to navigate the tumultuous times we face.

What role have conspiracy theories played in American political history? What is the connection between conspiracism and demagogy? How do the conspiracies circulating in our time compare to the conspiracies of the past? Using the classic work by Richard Hofstadter The Paranoid Style in American Politics (1964) as a springboard, Princeton historian Sean Wilentz joins us to consider these questions. Wilentz, editor of Library of America’s new volume of Hofstadter’s work, argues that conspiracies, paranoia, and demagogy have deep roots in American political history—and have, at various times, succeeded in affecting American politics considerably. Wilentz brings his perspective to bear on conspiracies circulating today and considers how our situation compares and contrasts with other tumultuous moments in American history. Kristol and Wilentz also discuss whether and how a less demagogic form of politics might emerge in the years ahead.

Where do things stand in the US with Covid-19? How quickly might the rollout of vaccines improve the situation? What lessons have we learned about America’s biomedical infrastructure and society during the course of the pandemic? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. According to Jha, the short-term situation is worrisome, with infections, hospitalizations, and deaths at their highest levels since the beginning of the pandemic. Yet, he argues, there are now grounds for optimism about 2021 thanks to the development of highly-effective vaccines, the increase in testing capacity, and improvement in therapeutics. Most important, the rollout of the vaccines now approved by the FDA should allow our situation to improve significantly during the winter and into the spring and summer (with additional benefit likely to come from more vaccine candidates gaining approval in the months ahead). Jha and Kristol also discuss broader questions regarding the pandemic, including the impressive capacity for development of biomedical technology as well as the challenges of governance and social solidarity.

Every new presidential administration faces its own set of foreign policy challenges, whatever the political climate at home and abroad. According to Eric Edelman, the incoming Biden administration faces an increasingly complex and dangerous world, as well as a fractious political environment at home. How should the Biden administration navigate America’s foreign policy? What should it focus on? In this Conversation, Edelman shares his perspective on the foreign policy challenges we face. Edelman calls for a renewed effort to defend America’s core interests while reforming and rebuilding alliance structures and institutions that have helped America prosper. While acknowledging key challenges to the enterprise, Edelman argues that America must reengage in leadership around the globe.

What did we learn about the American electorate and the state of our politics from the elections of 2020? What do the results tell us about partisanship, the divisions between red and blue America, and the possibilities for heightened polarization or compromise going forward? To consider these questions, we are joined by Senior Editor at The Atlantic Ronald Brownstein. When Brownstein last joined us after the 2018 midterms, he predicted a Biden-Harris ticket in 2020. In this Conversation, he and Bill Kristol analyze the results of 2020 and consider possible paths forward for each party, and our politics in general, over the course of the Biden presidency. This is must-see Conversation for those interested in post-election analysis that speaks to the fundamental political challenges the country faces today and in the years ahead.

The educator, orator, and thinker Booker T. Washington (1856 – 1915) has long been considered one of the most important figures in the post-Civil War era. But, as Diana Schaub explains, his thought and actions often have been misunderstood. In this Conversation, Schaub, a leading interpreter of American political thought, attempts to recover Washington’s ideas by setting them against the political situation of the time. When we do so, Schaub argues, we confront a profound and original thinker whose ideas on education, race, culture, and politics remain relevant today.

Where do things stand in the presidential race with two weeks to go until Election Day? Why have the polling averages been so stable even as events have been tumultuous? To discuss, we’re delighted to welcome back veteran Republican operative and frequent guest, Mike Murphy who has been sharing his wisdom, insight, and humor with us throughout the whole campaign. Murphy analyzes the dynamics of the race, why today it looks so favorable to Biden, and what might happen on Election Day and after. Kristol and Biden also discuss possible paths forward for the Republican Party if President Trump loses the election.

Where do things stand in the presidential race after the first debate? What should we look for in the final five weeks before Election Day? To discuss, we’re delighted to welcome back veteran Republican operative and frequent guest Mike Murphy. After assessing the debate performances, Murphy explains why he thinks Biden now possesses a substantial lead and Trump faces an uphill battle. Reflecting on the past 30 days, and past presidential races, Murphy considers the importance of the month of September for the campaigns—and also shares what he’s learned in recent weeks from polls and focus groups of undecided voters in Florida. As usual, Murphy brings his unique blend of humor and insight to the analysis!

How well have political and legal norms held up in our politics during the Trump presidency? In November 2017, Jack Goldsmith, a professor of Law at Harvard and a former Assistant Attorney General in the Office of Legal Counsel, shared his assessment of the early days of the Trump presidency. Now, as we head to the end of 2020, Goldsmith re-joins us to consider where things stand today. Goldsmith argues that American institutions and legal norms have retained some resilience over the course of Trump’s presidency. However, he analyzes how checks and constraints on norm-violating or corrupt behavior have weakened in many areas over the last three years. Drawing on his recent book (coauthored with Bob Bauer), After Trump: Reconstructing the Presidency, Goldsmith explains how future congresses should consider legislative remedies to restore norms in politics. But the heart of the matter, Goldsmith contends, is that the potential for a restoration of norms in our politics principally depends on whether future presidents will make adherence to norms a priority.

Where do things stand in the race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden as we head into the final two months of the campaign? What strategies are the candidates pursuing? What pitfalls do they have to watch out for? What expected or unforeseen events might shape the race? Joining us this week is veteran Republican operative and frequent guest Mike Murphy. Kristol and Murphy consider possible paths forward for the election and particularly how undecided voters, in swing states like Florida, might play a decisive role in the outcome of the race.

How should we grade American universities on their performance in educating young people? What role do universities play in American life today? How might we think about the opportunities for education beyond the traditional on-campus model? In this Conversation, the University of Virginia’s Paul Cantor argues that universities often are failing in their most critical mission. There are, Cantor argues, a whole host of ideological, economic, and political factors that contribute to this decline, but he highlights a neglected one: bureaucratic centralization. According to Cantor, the efforts of universities to place administrators in charge of key decisions has weakened university departments—and taken authority from faculty members, who often have been a check on efforts to undermine liberal education. In light of the decline of elite institutions, particularly in the domain of liberal arts, Cantor and Kristol also consider how online technologies and non-university educational programs can further the goal of genuine liberal education, outside the institutional world of higher ed. One such encouraging example is Cantor’s own Shakespeare and Politics website in the FCG’s Great Thinkers series.

Where do things stand in the US with the Covid-19 pandemic? How should we judge the response so far? How can we do better in the months ahead? In this Conversation, leading Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch shares his expertise on the Covid-19 crisis. Lipsitch argues that the country remains in a bad situation with respect to viral transmission, high or increasing numbers of cases in many parts of the country, and insufficient testing. It didn't have to be this way, he explains, and our failures endanger efforts to return to normal activity—and particularly the reopening of schools. Lipsitch discusses federal and state responses to the pandemic and shares ideas about how to meet the challenges ahead.

How should we think about the American founding? What role does slavery play in the history of the United States? What should be done about Confederate monuments? How might we think about the legacies of revered figures from America's past? Over the past year, these perennially important questions have been unusually central to our public life. In this Conversation, the distinguished Princeton historian Sean Wilentz shares his perspective on the current debates and the importance of the study of American history. Wilentz argues that understanding America's past—from the inspiring to the shameful—is vital for what he calls informed citizenship. Nonetheless, he warns against falling into the trap of oversimplifying history. According to Wilentz, the New York Times’ 1619 Project, which argues that slavery is foundational to the United States, is one recent example of this pitfall, because it minimizes important anti-slavery efforts at the time of the American founding. Wilentz calls for renewed efforts toward a reflective and nuanced study of the past. He further asserts that these efforts could help us recover a space in American politics for informed, thoughtful, and respectful debate—not only about the past but also about the future. Wilentz and Kristol also discuss the legacy of civil rights leader and Congressman John Lewis about whom Wilentz recently published a thoughtful and important reflection.

What is the state of the presidential race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden? How might decisions such as Biden’s vice-presidential pick and campaign events like the conventions change—or not change—the race? What possible moves might we expect from the Trump and Biden campaigns as we head toward the fall? In this Conversation with Bill Kristol, veteran Democratic strategist Joe Trippi shares his perspective. When Trippi appeared on Conversations in March of 2019, he predicted (against conventional wisdom!) that Biden would prevail in the Democratic nominating contest. Now, while highlighting challenges and potential unknowns in the race, Trippi argues that the dynamic that helped Biden in the primaries—the view that Biden can make government work and tamp down civil tensions—likely will help him in November, as well.

What are the motives and impulses behind the current wave of online denunciations of incorrect opinion? What is distinctive about the recent rise of mob violence? How does political extremism threaten American principles of government like toleration, free speech, and compromise? In this Conversation, Christine Rosen, a senior writer at Commentary, shares her perspective on cancel culture and the illiberal turn in American politics. Rosen argues that worthy goals like confronting injustices in American civic life are liable to be hurt rather than helped by extremism and violence. According to Rosen, there is no alternative but to rely on American’s time-tested methods of resolving disputes: the processes of liberal constitutionalism.

Born in 1950 in New York City and raised in Montreal, Charles Krauthammer, who died two years ago on June 21, 2018, was an indispensable voice in American public life for nearly four decades. His writing and speaking—covering politics, religion, religion, technology, sports, and many other subjects—enriched our public life profoundly. A staunch defender of American exceptionalism, he was one of the most eloquent writers of his generation. As Bill Kristol put it, he was a rare combination of extraordinary courage and intellect. Originally released in April 2015, this Conversation with Charles covers his education, his political reflections from the 1980s through the 2010s, his upbringing in Quebec, his work in medicine, and his thoughts on Israel and Zionism. In it, some of Charles Krauthammer’s extraordinary wit, wisdom, and character shine through.

What is the current economic situation of the US in light of the ongoing public health crisis? How successful have policies been in addressing the economic crisis? What are possible paths forward for the American economy in the short and medium term? In this Conversation, Stan Veuger of the American Enterprise Institute shares his perspective on the serious economic challenges we face. Veuger argues that the fiscal and monetary policies so far have averted the worst possibilities for the economy. However, the sheer number of lost jobs and productivity, along with the still unfolding future of the health crisis, means the economic pain likely will continue in the short and medium term. According to Veuger, there are reasons for concern about the pace of recovery—which ultimately will depend on how quickly America can overcome, or at least contain, the public health crisis.

Tensions between the United States and China have been rising as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. There is urgent need to think about the U.S.-China relationship and how the U.S. should confront the challenge. In this Conversation, Princeton professor and author of A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia, Aaron Friedberg argues that the pandemic has accelerated a fact apparent for some time—namely, that strategic competition between the U.S. and China is likely to be the central question of geopolitics in the years ahead. According to Friedberg, one effect of the current crisis may be emerging bipartisan agreement that China represents a serious threat to American interests and principles. Friedberg asserts that it is yet unclear how America will react to the challenge from China—much will depend on elections, strategic choices, and other factors. But, Friedberg argues, we are unlikely to return to a policy consensus that seeks seamless integration of China into the world order. And, in this timely and important Conversation, Friedberg sketches some political, ideological, and economic factors the United States will have to confront as it attempts to develop a comprehensive China strategy.

What will the campaign between Donald Trump and Joe Biden look like amidst the coronavirus pandemic and economic crisis? What strategies might each candidate pursue? What strategies should they pursue? Joining us—in our first socially-distanced audio Conversation—is veteran Republican operative and frequent guest Mike Murphy to discuss the state of the race. As usual, Murphy is provocative, humorous, and insightful—both about the current dynamics of the campaign as well as how things might unfold in the months ahead. This is a must-listen Conversation at a pivotal and unprecedented moment in our politics.

What is liberal democracy? What parts of human nature does liberal democracy rely on and try to cultivate? How can Aristotle help us understand America? In this thought-provoking and challenging Conversation, Harvey Mansfield shares his interpretation of liberal democracy as a regime that relies on both the democratic and aristocratic parts of human nature. However, citizens of liberal democracy tend to deny or misunderstand the aristocratic elements of the liberal democratic regime. According to Mansfield, this leads to the underestimation of the need for virtue in public and private life. And virtue is indispensable for a healthy politics. Relying on Aristotle’s classic account of the mixed regime, Mansfield argues that a deeper understanding of both the democratic and aristocratic parts of liberal democracy could help us better understand ourselves—and perhaps help us improve liberal democracy.

What reforms would most benefit American education? What are the obstacles to putting them in place? What changes to the education sector should we anticipate in the coming years? In this Conversation, Chester Finn, a former assistant secretary of education and veteran scholar of education policy, shares his perspective on the state of American education—covering preschool, K-12, colleges and universities, and continuing education. According to Finn, American education still boasts sources of strength, such as some very good institutions from pre-K to higher ed. However, he notes America is falling behind other advanced countries in overall educational outcomes. Finn and Kristol address various reform initiatives such as charter schools, the homeschool movement, the marshaling of technology to cut costs and improve outcomes, and various other policy tools that could attract better teachers or otherwise improve schools. While noting the promise in some reform efforts, Finn also highlights the obstacles they have often faced, and reflects on why the education system seems so resistant to change. This is a must-listen Conversation for anyone interested in a sector so closely tied to the success of America.

According to the standards of today, all philosophic and political writing is expected to be clear and unambiguous. Writers are told to be absolutely open about their suppositions and opinions—to lay all their cards on the table. In this Conversation with Bill Kristol, Michigan State political scientist Arthur Melzer reminds us that this was not always the case. Drawing on his recent book Philosophy Between the Lines, Melzer demonstrates that, from antiquity to the end of the Enlightenment, philosophers, theologians, and political thinkers practiced the art of esoteric writing. Esoteric writing is an elliptical mode of writing that employs rhetorical devices such as allusions, riddles, hints, repetitions, and contradictions that conceals the true thought of a great thinker from everyone except the most careful readers. In his research, Melzer has presented an impressive amount of evidence of the ubiquity of the practice among writers in world history. In this Conversation, he highlights some of the evidence and discloses (in a very forthright fashion) the series of motives that led writers to philosophize between the lines. Finally, Melzer and Kristol discuss why the practice largely disappeared from the nineteenth century onward, and what the phenomenon has to teach us about key themes in the history of philosophy and politics.

Is the current system of presidential selection—primary and caucus voting—working well? How did the framers of the Constitution think about presidential selection? How did presidential selection work at other moments in American history? In this Conversation, University of Virginia political scientist James Ceaser shares his perspective on the character of presidential selection from the founding period through the creation of the party system to the nominating process we know today. As Ceaser argues, the founders thought very deeply about presidential selection, and sought to constitutionalize the process of presidential nomination and selection to promote fit characters and filter out demagogues. With varying degrees of success, the party system that grew up later in American history sought to perform a similar function, balancing the input of the populace and party leaders themselves. In recent times, however, the party regulars have lost control of the nominating process and it has opened up dramatically for outsiders. As Ceaser demonstrates, this has had, and may continue to have, dramatic effects on the kinds of candidates that may be nominated—and the character of the American presidency.

What was the Old West? How did Westerns emerge as a quintessential American art form? What are the greatest Westerns and what accounts for their enduring appeal—in America and around the world? In this Conversation, Paul Cantor explains how the Western rose to prominence—and the philosophical, political, and cultural themes that the greatest Westerns address. Cantor shares an extended interpretation of the films of John Ford and particularly Ford's two masterworks, The Searchers and The Man Who Shot Liberty Valence. He also explains how Ford’s work and other Westerns influenced Akiro Kurosawa’s Japanese Samurai films. Cantor and Kristol also discuss how the Italian Spaghetti Westerns of Sergio Leone influenced Clint Eastwood and other more recent American films. Here we see how an American art form spread around the world and later returned to reshape American culture. This is a must-listen Conversation for anyone interested in American culture and popular culture around the globe.

Though not read nearly as much as it should be, Montesquieu’s The Spirit of the Laws (1748) is a fundamental text in the history of political philosophy. Featuring key presentations of themes including the separation of powers, the effect of commerce in politics, and the nature of republican and monarchical governments, The Spirit of the Laws had profound influence on the founders and the Constitution—as well as on the school of political thought that came to be called modern liberalism. In this Conversation, Harvey Mansfield presents a powerfully illuminating introduction to Montesquieu’s great—though extremely challenging—work. He explains how Montesquieu opposed the idea of an unlimited concentration of power, a notion that came into the modern world especially through the teaching of Thomas Hobbes. In challenging it, however, Montesquieu does not try to return to Aristotle’s notion of a best regime, which, he implies, leads to imperialism. Rather, Montesquieu accepts the modern notion of power but turns it against itself through his doctrine of the separation of powers. As for the tendency toward imperialism, Montesquieu’s alternative is the commercial republic, which will inevitably try to expand but do so more peacefully. This is a must-see introduction to a work that can help us better understand both the United States and the modern world more generally.

In this Conversation, first released in 2018, Professor Diana Schaub considers the life and ideas of the statesman and political thinker Frederick Douglass (c. 1818 – 1885). Schaub reflects on Douglass’s life, including his experience of slavery, his abolitionist politics, his work on behalf of the Union in the Civil War, and his post-war efforts to secure civil rights. Schaub demonstrates Douglass’s importance as a political thinker, pointing to his reflections on the corruptions of slavery, the meaning and requirements of freedom, the significance of the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution, and the role of prudence in politics.

The birthrate in the United States, and in many other countries around the world, has been declining for decades. The US birthrate now is at 1.8, which is below the need for a stable population—the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. Yet the profound consequences of this change take generations to play out. In this Conversation, Jonathan V. Last, author of What To Expect When No One's Expecting and Executive Editor of The Bulwark, shares his research into demographic decline and spells out some of the current and potential future consequences that might follow from it. Last argues that we're likely to see a steep fall in the global population beginning later this century, which could produce alarming geopolitical dangers. As for America, Last notes that declining fertility could put major pressure on the social safety net—and change the nature of our society. This is a sobering and important Conversation on a neglected but extremely important subject.

What is the political and economic situation in Europe today? How should we think about contentious issues like stresses in the European Union, Brexit, the migration crisis, and the rise of populist parties of the Left and the Right? In this Conversation, AEI economist Stan Veuger shares an incisive and—against the conventional wisdom—rather encouraging account of Europe today.In support of this assessment, Veuger presents a qualified defense of the project of European integration, noting that in the last decades European countries have successfully warded off violent conflict and have enjoyed greater economic prosperity (despite serious problems with the Euro currency). Veuger highlights the imperfect character of the Euro, but argues that there does not seem to be a plausible alternative to it, today. In contrast to his confidence about the general prospects and benefits of the EU common market, Veuger shares specific concerns about national defense, the migration crisis, Brexit, and the rise of populist parties. However he says he is less worried [about the future of Europe] now than people rightly were five years ago.

How is the US economy performing today? How should we think about the turn against free markets by prominent figures of the Left and the Right? What economic policies might spur innovation and growth in the future? In this Conversation, Harvard economist N. Gregory Mankiw analyzes the current moment and shares his perspective on the major economic policies and ideas of the Left and the Right. According to Mankiw, the American economy remains robust and dynamic, despite only good (rather than excellent) economic growth in recent years and increased consternation about the rise of inequality. Criticizing policies that rely excessively on central planning, Mankiw calls for high-skilled immigration, innovative approaches to education, and maintaining incentives that yield investment in research and development. He also suggests some alterations in tax and welfare policies that might help ameliorate problems we face in the short and long term.