Research @ Citi

Donald Trump was elected to a second U.S. presidential term this week as the world watched the results unfold into the early hours of Wednesday morning. In this special edition of Research @ Citi, Rob Rowe is joined by Scott Chronert, Head of U.S. Equity and ETF Strategy, and Dan Tobon, Head of G10 FX Strategy, to discuss how the financial markets were trading in the runup to the election, and what they’ll likely be focusing on in a second Trump administration.

This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2024 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.

Defense spending is on the rise amid the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the United States is also looking to deter threats and avoid conflict elsewhere in the world. This has implications not only for traditional contractors but also for venture-backed companies that operate in the “defense tech” sector. Join Citi’s Rob Rowe, U.S. Regional Director of Research, and Jason Gursky, U.S. Aerospace & Defense Analyst, as they talk about the current spending priorities of the U.S. and its allies, how Silicon Valley is helping drive innovation in defense, and the importance of deploying assets in the ultimate high ground: space.

Despite media reports to the contrary, sustainable investment looks here to stay: an estimated $35 trillion in assets have a sustainable investment mandate. Why should investors care about extreme weather events, pollution, or food security? Because natural ecosystems underpin the functioning of a healthy economy and provide insights into key sectors dependent on natural capital. Join Citi’s Elise Badoy, Head of Europe, UK, Middle East and Africa Research, and Anita McBain, Head of Sustainable Investment Research, as they discuss the work Anita and her team are doing to understand how the sector is evolving, how investors are approaching it, and what 2025 is likely to bring.

This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2024 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.

America’s restaurant industry has endured dramatic change in recent years. Covid forced many restaurants to shut down, and the survivors had to adapt their operating models for a world of social distancing. Coming out of the pandemic, stimulus benefits, higher wages and asset prices, and steady employment brought a wave of discretionary spending that benefited restaurants. But since late 2023, cracks have appeared in the form of a bifurcation in the marketplace between high- and low-income consumers, with the latter in particular feeling the impact of inflation on discretionary spend. Meanwhile, changing attitudes toward health and wellness are starting to impact menu options. Join Rob Rowe, U.S. Regional Director of Research, and Jon Tower, U.S. Restaurant Analyst, as they discuss how the industry and its customers are responding to the shifting landscape, and how restaurants are likely to fare over the coming year.

This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2024 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.

Oil, Gold and Copper — the “Commodity Trinity” — are of particular interest to the financial markets given their importance to the global economy. Oil is a $3 trillion physical commodity market that influences geopolitics, inflation, currencies, and even bonds and equities. Gold is often viewed as a safe haven amid heightened concern over other asset classes. And copper plays a critical role in power transmission, infrastructure growth, and other major applications. But what are the underlying dynamics driving each of these markets today? Join Citi’s Elise Badoy, Head of Europe, UK, Middle East and Africa Research, and Max Layton, Head of Commodities Research, as they address this question and touch on how Max’s team approaches their analyses.

This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2024 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.

As artificial intelligence, or AI, continues to grab headlines, enterprise software companies are looking to prioritize AI-related projects with a view to future-proofing their investments. Yet very few of these companies have AI revenue streams today. Meanwhile, generative AI in particular requires increasingly massive amounts of processing power, creating critical dependencies on —and bottlenecks from — supporting sectors like energy and semiconductors. When will the software sector reap the benefits of AI in earnest? Join Citi’s Rob Rowe, U.S. Regional Director of Research and Head of the Global Strategy and Macro Group, and Tyler Radke, U.S. Software Sector Co-Head and Senior Analyst, as they discuss the state of the software market, how companies are incorporating AI into their budgets, and how macroeconomic and geopolitical factors could impact growth in the sector.

View the related report,The Digital Transformation of the Global Economy: Riding the Wave of Virtual Progress.

This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2024 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.

The digital transformation amounts to an ongoing shift from an economy that's characterized primarily by flows of physical “stuff” to one that’s more focused on data and information. From dramatic improvements in communication to the onset of the creator economy, its impact extends well beyond technology and into downstream sectors like retail, media, and entertainment. How much is the digital transformation contributing to GDP? How is it impacting global trade? Will it reduce or exacerbate economic inequality? And who are the winners and losers of the prevailing trends?

Join Citi’s Rob Rowe, U.S. Regional Director of Research and Head of the Global Strategy and Macro Group, and Nathan Sheets, Global Chief Economist, as they dive into these questions and more in an engaging discussion on this timely topic.

This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2024 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.

Africa’s share of global GDP is in the low single digits, but two factors in particular could prove transformative for its economy: positive population growth amid a shrinking world population, and the benefit of “leapfrogging”, where its nations can adopt new technologies faster as latecomers by skipping traditional development phases. Meanwhile, the post-COVID world has created significant challenges. Higher inflation led to a string of defaults and collapsing currencies, and some multinational corporations have pulled their operations. How can Africa stay on a growth trajectory as it manages its fiscal deficits? Who is investing there today, and are there still attractive opportunities? What about political risk?   

Join Citi’s Elise Badoy, Head of Europe, UK, Middle East and Africa Research, and David Cowan, Chief Africa Economist, as they tackle these questions and help us understand  Africa’s current state and prospects ahead.   

For more details, see David’s Citi GPS report, ⁠Africa: A New Growth Model⁠.

This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2024 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.

After last year’s strong holiday season, U.S. financial markets were concerned that this year’s first-quarter retailer earnings might reveal a lull in consumer spending. Yet the results surprised mostly to the upside as consumption proved resilient. How will the U.S. consumer fare for the remainder of this year and into 2025? Which retailing categories are seeing stronger or weaker spending? Join Citi’s Rob Rowe, U.S. Regional Director of Research and Head of the Global Strategy and Macro Group, and Paul Lejuez, Head of Consumer Discretionary for Citi Research, as they delve into these questions against the current economic backdrop, and discuss how Paul and his team measure and forecast discretionary spending power.

This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2024 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.

Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, built their initial reputation as passive investment vehicles, and in that context they’ve matured —with a tradable ETF for practically every passive index in the financial markets. But the entrepreneurial nature of the industry has redirected ETFs toward an actively managed path. This presents significant risks —and opportunities —for traditional asset managers and mutual fund complexes.

Join Citi’s Rob Rowe, U.S. Regional Director of Research and Head of the Global Strategy and Macro Group, and Scott Chronert, Head of U.S. Equity and ETF Strategy, as they explore the key factors that are driving this paradigm shift, and the implications for both institutional and retail investors.

Access the related Must C publication, Sizing the ETF Opportunity: From Passive Revolution to Active Evolution: https://www.citigroup.com/global/insights/sizing-the-etf-opportunity

This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2024 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.

This year kicked off with financial markets expecting multiple rate cuts from the Fed, as a slowing trend in jobs growth and easing inflation expectations closed out 2023. But the first quarter revealed a series of upside surprises to inflation, giving rise to the prospect that interest rates might well remain “higher for longer”. Why has everyone —from policymakers to pundits —consistently underestimated inflation this time around?

Join Citi’s Lucy Baldwin, Global Head of Citi Research, and Andrew Hollenhorst, U.S. Chief Economist, as they break down the dynamics of the current environment, including why the labor market is the linchpin for the economy overall.

This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2024 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.

The current state of the U.S. housing market can be traced back to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The ensuing retreat of builders and lenders resulted in housing starts trending below a pre-GFC average that had persisted for several decades — in an America with a much smaller population. Then the pandemic hit, which stimulated substantial demand as Americans worked and schooled from home and moved to different parts of the country. On the supply side, a shortage of building products and labor put the brakes on construction. Fast forward to 2024, and current benchmark mortgage rates mean that many homeowners locked in at lower rates are not keen to sell. All of this adds up to a housing market where affordability is near all-time lows. But is the U.S. housing market actually broken?

Join Citi’s Rob Rowe, Head of the Global Strategy and Macro Group and U.S. Regional Director of Research, and Anthony Pettinari, U.S. Homebuilding and Building Products Analyst, as they tackle this critical question, not only from an economic standpoint but also from the perspective of demographics, geography, and even the tail risks around insurance rates amid climate change.

This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2024 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.

The power grid is arguably the backbone of modern society. We’re now at a critical convergence of soaring power demand from the digital economy — driven by the rise of electric vehicles, data centers, artificial intelligence (AI), and other technological advances — and an aging grid that requires significant improvement. The International Energy Agency estimates that power lines globally will need to double in length between now and 2050, and that’s not including the old power lines that need to be replaced. Then there’s the red tape that stands in the way of new construction, the challenge of integrating renewable energy, and the need for coordinated planning to modernize the grid —all of which point to unprecedented, structural supply-and-demand shocks.

Join Citi’s Rob Rowe, Head of the Global Strategy and Macro Group and U.S. Regional Director of Research, and Anthony Yuen, Head of Energy Strategy in Commodities Research, as they unpack the complexities of the global power problem and discuss potential solutions, including long-duration energy storage, flexible supply, demand response, and the use of AI to help model and coordinate modern power grids.

This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2024 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.

China’s once-staggering economic growth has stalled. It now faces myriad challenges, including persisting property market woes, rising geopolitical tensions and weak consumer demand. How China responds will have broad-reaching implications for the rest of the world. Join Lucy Baldwin, Global Head of Citi Research, and Johanna Chua, Citi’s Head of Emerging Market Economics, as they discuss China’s short- and long-term prospects, its policy responses and priorities, its trading-partner relationships, and whether it could suffer the same fate as 1990s Japan.

This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2024 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.