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From financial markets and politics to business and social issues, Dan Ferris and our Stansberry Analysts offer candid discussion on today’s most important headlines. Each week you’ll hear exclusive interviews with guest investment experts, authors, and top thinkers such as Jim Rogers, Kevin O’Leary, Glenn Beck, PJ O’Rourke, and Jim Grant. The Stansberry Investor Hour is produced by Stansberry Research, LLC.
- 389 - Don't Fear Generative AI – Invest In It
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Dr. John Sviokla. John is an author, executive fellow at Harvard Business School, and co-founder of GAI Insights – the world's leading generative artificial-intelligence ("AI") analyst firm. He joins the podcast to talk all things AI – its investing potential, limitations, and real-world applications.
John kicks off the show by explaining how GAI Insights is helping organizations and communities understand and use generative AI. Currently, many executives don't know enough about it to even recognize its opportunities in the workplace. John says that workers whose jobs involve words, images, numbers, and sounds will be the most impacted by this technology. He also breaks down the three new forms of capital: network, behavioral, and cognitive. When it comes to the latter, businesses are trying to protect their proprietary data and processes today by keeping their AI behind firewalls. (1:46)
Next, John talks about how these AI models are trained, the process of training workers to use AI, and the limitations of AI. One such area AI struggles with is creating new ways to look at a problem. However, it's surprisingly good at empathizing and mimicking human emotions. John then discusses AI's computability, the transformer algorithm, and how AI could impact the broad market. (19:11)
Finally, John describes the four levels of generative-AI adoption. Those in the top level – "intelligence leveragers" – drive value by using AI to build AI. Right now, technology is the only industry with these kinds of companies. But John says that in the next five to seven years, each major industry will have an intelligence leverager. This presents a huge opportunity for investors. John gives several real-world situations across different industries (like pharmaceuticals and financials) where AI implementation will be game-changing. (40:35)
Mon, 18 Nov 2024 - 1h 08min - 388 - The Overvalued Junk-Bond Market Still Has Pockets of Opportunity
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Martin "Marty" Fridson back to the show. Marty is an author and expert in the field of high-yield bond investing. He is also a senior analyst at Porter & Co.'s Distressed Investing newsletter.
Marty kicks off the show by discussing the top-down view of the high-yield market. He comments that right now, there is a very small risk premium. Marty breaks down the factors that he uses in his model of fair value and concludes that the high-yield market is extremely overvalued. At the same time, the market is forecasting a higher default rate than credit- ratings agency Moody's. Marty also gives his opinion on whether we'll see a recession, what it means that the inverted yield curve has not yet resulted in a recession, and why he's less critical of the Federal Reserve than other investors. (1:39)
Next, Marty explains that the current situation of the federal-funds rate and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moving in opposite directions is not rare. He says it happens 40% of the time. This segues to a discussion about what's happening with the junk-bond market... including companies potentially having to roll over their debt to higher rates... and private credit lenders now competing with high-yield bond buyers. Marty then names which sectors present attractive buying opportunities today. (18:03)
Finally, Marty goes further in depth about his quantitative model and what data it draws upon to find attractively priced distressed debt. He then explains that because high-yield bonds aren't very liquid, exchange-traded funds centered around these investments tend to have a lot of variance in performance. This can have serious consequences in times of extreme market disruption. (34:12)
Mon, 11 Nov 2024 - 53min - 387 - Simple Yet Powerful Tips for Short Selling – Exposing the Red Flags
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Edwin Dorsey to the show. Edwin conducts deep, investigative analyses of public companies in his newsletter, The Bear Cave. By prioritizing customer relations and common-sense logic over financial data, he can gain an edge and find troubled companies for his subscribers before Wall Street does.
Edwin kicks off the show by explaining how he got his start doing short-selling research and how he identifies prime opportunities for shorting. Rather than focusing on the financials, he hunts for $1 billion to $10 billion companies in the technology or consumer sector with bad customer relationships. Edwin shares case studies of how he discovered safety issues at two child-focused companies. The first was caregiver platform Care.com, which wasn't properly vetting its caregivers. The second is Roblox, which has ongoing issues with child predators and gambling. (0:39)
Next, Edwin talks about why candy maker Hershey could face long-term issues now that trendy competitor Feastables is steadily stealing market share and doing a better job of appealing to the younger generation. As he points out, most investors tend to be older and male, so there are often blind spots for companies catering to youth and female demographics. Edwin also makes his bearish case for the predatory fitness-center company Planet Fitness. With the Federal Trade Commission working to make canceling memberships easier, this is bound to hurt the stock. (24:12)
Finally, Edwin names several companies that are doomed thanks to the rise of artificial-intelligence technology. He highlights call-center businesses and tax-service providers in particular, but also warns of downstream effects. After, Edwin talks more about how he first got interested in the financial world, how he learned that the numbers don't matter if the underlying business is not sustainable, and how he picks which stocks to go long. (40:23)
Mon, 04 Nov 2024 - 1h 04min - 386 - How to Get Your Financial House in Order
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Austin Root. Austin is an old friend and the chief investment officer at Stansberry Asset Management ("SAM"). SAM is a separate company from Stansberry Research and MarketWise, but it was born with the same DNA. The difference is, SAM helps individual investors optimize their portfolios.
Austin kicks off the show by discussing his favorite moments from last week's Stansberry Conference & Alliance Meeting. After, he shares what his role is at SAM and how the company helps individual investors with financial planning. Austin explains that SAM's team of specialists will look at an investor's full balance sheet – not just the part SAM is managing – and then make a personalized plan from there using projections. He emphasizes that paying down expensive credit-card debt is the most important first step, and he breaks down how macro factors influence SAM's strategies. (0:46)
Next, Austin talks about why investors should be in productive assets rather than cash, why he sees gold as inferior to shares of world-class businesses, and how bitcoin can be a good long-term store of value. He also names two stocks he finds particularly attractive right now. The first is a financial company that is trading at a discount, is poised for double-digit revenue growth, and serves as an inflation hedge. The second is a construction-materials company with a fantastic shareholder yield of nearly 10%. (24:59)
Finally, Austin explains why investors should keep politics out of their portfolios for the long term. He says inflation is the one factor he always pays attention to and everything else is noise. Austin does note, though, that he has loaded up on defense stocks for the short term since geopolitical tensions are rising around the globe. But overall, he says both candidates want to spend like mad and will be bad for the economy in the long run. (45:29)
Disclosure: Stansberry Asset Management ("SAM") is a Registered Investment Adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. File number: 801-107061. Such registration does not imply any level of skill or training. Under no circumstances should this report or any information herein be construed as investment advice, or as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or other financial instruments.
Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC ("Stansberry Research") is not a current client or investor of SAM. SAM provides cash compensation to Stansberry Research for Stansberry Research's advisory client solicitation services for the benefit of SAM. Material conflicts of interest may exist due to Stansberry Research's economic interest in soliciting clients for SAM. Certain Stansberry Research personnel may also have limited rights and interests relating to one or more parent entities of SAM.
Mon, 28 Oct 2024 - 1h 07min - 385 - These Are the Sectors You Should Buy Today
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Marc Chaikin back to the show. Marc is a Wall Street veteran with 50-plus years of total market experience. He's also the founder and CEO of our corporate affiliate, Chaikin Analytics. He joins the show to share some of his vast wisdom with listeners, from the hottest sectors around to why you shouldn't get spooked by all the volatility.
Marc kicks off the show by making his bullish case for the markets. However, he notes that this rising tide has not lifted all boats equally... He lists off several sectors that are particularly attractive to him today, plus a few he's staying away from. Marc also talks a bit about JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon's prediction for a financial hurricane, the outlook for energy stocks, what's going on in China to make stocks so volatile, how the Federal Reserve has been doing, and the U.S.'s shift from a manufacturing economy to a service economy. (0:39)
Next, Marc emphasizes that the key to profiting as an investor is to avoid making broad economic predictions. He says that different sets of data can give you conflicting signals, so it's not worth your time trying to guess the unknowable future. Instead, you should pay attention only to momentum and earnings. Marc then criticizes financial reporting by the mainstream media, advises listeners to take advantage of current volatility rather than run from it, and highlights the bullish setups in nuclear and software stocks thanks to AI. (18:56)
Finally, Marc urges investors to not get bearish while the S&P 500 Index is having its best year since 1997. He points out that, as the dot-com mania showed us, the bull run can continue for several more years. As long as profit margins continue to rise, you want to be invested. He also explains how he uses his Power Gauge system to avoid doomed stocks. This leads to a conversation about Marc's new upcoming newsletter that will focus on what the "smart money" is buying and allow him to spot "pockets of strength." Plus, Marc weighs in on mining stocks. (38:38)
Mon, 21 Oct 2024 - 1h 03min - 384 - A Study of Modern Wars and Government Inefficiency
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Jonathan Shaffner to the podcast. Jon is a retired U.S. Army colonel with 25 years of service who currently works as the director of federal business development at MBO Partners. MBO specializes in delivering solutions that make it safer and easier for enterprise organizations and top independent professionals to work together.
Jon kicks off the show by discussing NATO's increased presence in Europe, through the lens of his own military experience. He posits that modern wars are more ideology-based than previous ones. This leads to Jon talking about his years in Afghanistan and Iraq. After, he shares what MBO does and how it helps companies (especially in defense and health care) build better workforces. (1:00)
Next, Jon puts government spending into an investing context. He notes that through all the inefficiency and bloat, there are definite winners and losers of government contracts. He also breaks down his and MBO's involvement in helping to create value for the companies that have been awarded these contracts. Jon cites data usage as the biggest need he's seeing right now. Companies have massive amounts of data but don't know what to do with it or how to implement it. (23:05)
Finally, Jon talks about how MBO finds contractors, the possibility of it going public someday, and its research on the gig economy. He then explores what could happen with the two major ongoing wars affecting the U.S. today: Russia versus Ukraine and Israel versus Hamas. Jon predicts that the war in Ukraine will be over within 18 months, but he says the war in the Middle East is much more complicated thanks to the Houthis. (42:41)
Mon, 14 Oct 2024 - 1h 08min - 383 - Don't Believe the China Boogeyman Narrative
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Brendan Ahern to the show. Brendan is the chief investment officer at asset manager KraneShares. The company provides investors access to Chinese companies, climate investments, and uncorrelated assets through exchange-traded funds.
Brendan kicks off the show by describing the basics of KraneShares and its involvement in Chinese markets. He discusses the recent surge in Chinese stocks and gives context for what's driving it. As Brendan explains, the country is focused on stabilizing real estate prices and stimulating the broader economy. By lowering interest rates and announcing loads of subsidies that will benefit its citizens, the government can increase domestic consumption at a crucial time. (0:43)
Next, Brendan talks about China's negative reputation due to Western disinformation and political rhetoric. As almost all U.S. investors are implicitly involved with China, and as the majority of Western companies outsource to China, our economy depends on the foreign nation. Brendan also discusses the influence U.S. investors have had on Chinese companies in regard to corporate governance... billionaire hedge-fund manager David Tepper going all-in on China... and why he believes China won't invade Taiwan. (18:11)
Finally, Brendan breaks down the growth prospects for China today and shares his thoughts on the U.S. moving to produce more semiconductors domestically. After, he discusses today's data-driven world and the new ways this data is collected by research firms. KraneShares is able to leverage this data in turn and be selective about which Chinese companies it gets involved with. As Brendan explains, cooperation with China is both important for investors' portfolio diversification and for a harmonious future. (37:12)
Mon, 07 Oct 2024 - 1h 03min - 382 - We're Headed for a Big Crash – No Matter What
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Bob Murphy. Bob is the chief economist at technology firm infineo, author of more than a dozen books, and a passionate advocate of free markets. He explores a wide variety of topics on this week's podcast, from how history is repeating itself... to the U.S. dollar's inevitable fall from dominance... to the harmful consequences of low interest rates.
Bob starts the show by explaining what exactly infineo does, how it's making life insurance an asset class, and the advantages of tokenizing life insurance. He also discusses one of his books, the Politically Incorrect Guide to the Great Depression and the New Deal. Even though the book is more than a decade old, and even though it's about the U.S. economy in the 1920s and 1930s, its lessons are still relevant in today's economic context. Bob notes that there's going to be a big crash no matter what. (1:13)
Next, Bob talks a bit about the presidential election, the effects of Donald Trump pulling out of the Paris Agreement, and the government's out-of-control spending problem. He predicts that the U.S. dollar will lose its status as the world reserve currency by the 2040s, and voices concerns that the U.S. is following China's lead toward a Big Brother police state with social credit scores. (19:57)
Finally, Bob shares his thoughts on the current state of the economy. He covers hyperinflation, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's actions, the inverted yield curve, and former Fed economist Claudia Sahm denying the validity of her own 100%-accurate recession indicator. Bob also talks about the harm caused by low interest rates and how they lead to malinvestment, allowing bad businesses to stay alive. (40:54)
Mon, 30 Sep 2024 - 1h 14min - 381 - Value Investing Is Still Possible in Today's Bloated Market
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Chris Pavese back to the show. Chris is the president and chief investment officer of Broyhill Asset Management. A value-oriented investment firm, Broyhill prioritizes safe, long-term success.
Chris kicks off the show by sharing a few book recommendations and explaining all about Broyhill. He covers how he got his start at the company, what differentiates it from other asset managers, and its core value-investing philosophy. As Chris notes, we've seen one of the longest stretches of value underperformance in history. However, Broyhill has kept pace with the S&P 500 Index over the past decade, despite not holding the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks and half of the portfolio being in foreign markets. (0:43)
Next, Chris explains what closed-end funds are and why they see such major swings in sentiment. He also gives his macro outlook in regard to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and what it means for the economy. Chris highlights the fact that today's market is one of the most concentrated in history. But as he points out, there are pockets of value in many areas, especially internationally. And despite all the geopolitical turmoil, he advises against abandoning equities completely. (19:59)
Finally, Chris discusses the importance of having a margin of safety and practicing common-sense risk management. He also mentions that the Biden administration is going hard with antitrust regulation and blocking a lot of deals, which is causing wide spreads in stock price when mergers and acquisitions are announced. Broyhill uses this merger-arbitrage strategy a fair amount to get easy money. Plus, Chris shares Broyhill's underwriting methods to gauge a business's intrinsic value. (40:08)
Mon, 23 Sep 2024 - 1h 05min - 380 - The Three Sectors Investors Are Flocking to Today
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Pete Carmasino back to the show. Pete is chief market strategist at our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics. He's also editor of the Chaikin PowerTactics and Chaikin PowerTrader newsletters. With more than 25 years of experience in the financial-services industry, Pete joins the podcast to share some of his wisdom on sector rotations, pullbacks, and the housing market.
Pete kicks off the show by talking about the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, unemployment ticking higher, and the difficulty bond managers are having with timing the market. He also shares his thoughts on the Sahm Rule indicator, which says we're currently in a recession. Pete believes that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will only do a 25-basis-point rate cut, but that ultimately Japan will be the deciding factor in Powell's decision. This leads to a conversation about sector rotation and which sectors are outperforming today. (0:43)
Next, Pete gives pointers on how to find investing opportunities within market rotations and pullbacks. He explains that a lot of the sectors that are thriving today serve as bond proxies, and a lot of the individual stocks that investors are flocking to are safe havens that pay high dividends. After, Pete talks about the trend in oil and gas prices over the past two years and how it has been influenced by the White House's efforts to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. (18:46)
Finally, Pete shares why he believes the housing market is on its way to reaching an "equilibrium" between buyers and sellers. He says housing prices can stay high (benefiting sellers) while interest-rate cuts will lower mortgages (benefiting buyers). Pete also cites increases to the lifetime gift/estate tax exemption as a reason for the influx of competitive all-cash housing transactions. (34:31)
Mon, 16 Sep 2024 - 1h 03min - 379 - Cannabis Stocks Are Your Next Big Investment Opportunity
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Aaron Edelheit back to the show. Aaron is the founder and CEO of private investment firm Mindset Capital. He joins the podcast to talk about his investing philosophy... the importance of relieving mental stress... and all things cannabis – from its "great replacement" of alcohol to its legalization in more and more states.
Aaron begins with a story about how he received advice from the legendary Charlie Munger on the "price of admission" of being an investor. He explains that this advice made him reflect on his own strengths and realize that he wanted to exclusively do long-term investing rather than trading. This leads to a conversation about investor psychology and mental strain. Aaron shares a few tips for relieving the anxiety surrounding investing, from turning off your phone and computer one day a week to doing hot yoga. (1:37)
Next, Aaron talks a bit about his investing background, his career path, and how he finds opportunities where others aren't looking. Today, he believes the big opportunity is in cannabis stocks. He explains that certain names in this industry are breaking out despite the lack of federal reform. Aaron also drops a non-cannabis name that he's interested in and gives an alternative perspective on value stocks. (22:44)
Finally, Aaron compares today's investing landscape with that of the 1990s. He shares that there's much more financing of private companies today, which stops them from going public for longer (if at all). After, Aaron makes his case for cannabis stocks. He believes that they will eventually steal market share from drug companies and alcohol producers once more people realize the benefits and switch over. (40:54)
Mon, 09 Sep 2024 - 1h 08min - 378 - Exploring Corporate America's Nearly Unchecked Power in D.C.
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Brody Mullins to the show. Brody is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative reporter and author of the new book The Wolves of K Street. He joins the podcast to share insights from his two-plus decades spent investigating the Washington political scene.
Brody kicks off the show by discussing his history reporting on antitrust regulation. He notes that recently, both major political parties in D.C. have become less friendly to Big Tech companies and are using antitrust regulation to slow their growth. After, Brody talks a bit about how he got started in journalism, the importance of holding those in power accountable, and why he has dedicated his life to investigating companies. (1:27)
Next, Brody shares some details about his book. He points out that for most of this country's history, companies had very little influence in Washington. Things only changed in the 1970s once the economy cratered and stagflation hit. Then, companies began to lobby in order to twist regulations and gain an advantage in the market. Brody also explains lobbying in simple terms, including how lobbyists raise money for members of Congress. He argues that legal loopholes and undisclosed funds to influence constituents have made companies nearly untouchable. (15:10)
Finally, Brody discusses why there's still hope for the American people to fight back. He explains that negative public perception about these big, powerful corporations (such as Amazon and Google parent Alphabet) has influenced antitrust regulators to begin taking action. He also talks about insider trading among members of Congress and emphasizes that all of these conflicts of interest are not limited to one party. (33:38)
Tue, 03 Sep 2024 - 1h 00min - 377 - An Exceptional Trading Season Is Right Around the Corner
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Greg Diamond back to the show. Greg is a fellow analyst at Stansberry Research and editor of the trading advisory Ten Stock Trader. With nearly two decades' worth of experience trading and managing every asset class, Greg is an expert at technical analysis and interpreting market cycles.
Greg kicks things off by reviewing the inflection points he predicted last time he was on the podcast. He explains what these time cycles mean and how they've influenced his trading strategy this year. He also discusses the upcoming presidential election and how crucial it is for investors to put aside their biases. According to Greg, the market's wider emotional reactions to the election could present some fantastic buying opportunities. (0:55)
Next, Greg breaks down famed trader W.D. Gann's technical strategies into simple terms. He emphasizes that the "why" in market cycles is not really important. What matters is whether history is repeating or not. Greg warns of cycle inversions, however, and points out that many charts and algorithms in technical analysis just reflect human emotion. Investors will naturally reach different conclusions about the market, which creates volatility. (17:03)
Finally, Greg talks about short-term trading versus holding stocks for the long term. He shares that this presidential election is the most excited he has been about trading since 2022. Greg foresees "an exceptional trading season" after a fairly boring start to the year. And he hammers home that investors should be careful of increased volatility for the next few months and possibly even the next few years. (39:41)
Mon, 26 Aug 2024 - 1h 01min - 376 - Beware the Market's 'Expectations Bubble'
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Bob Elliott back to the show. Bob is the co-founder, chief investment officer, and CEO of Unlimited. The investment firm uses machine learning to replicate the index returns of hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity. Bob explores a wide range of topics in the podcast, from counteracting inflation with certain investments to the worsening future of globalization.
Bob kicks off the show by talking about the importance of holding yourself accountable with investing and about bonds in relation to the Federal Reserve's next moves. Many investors are expecting an aggressive rate-cutting cycle, but as Bob points out, the Fed may not live up to those expectations. He also discusses the flaws of the 60/40 portfolio in today's market, why you should hold gold as part of your portfolio, and two primary factors that could contribute to a long-term inflationary environment. (1:02)
Next, Bob explores ways to properly balance your portfolio to preserve wealth and minimize volatility. This leads to a conversation about Treasury inflation-protected securities. Bob describes why they're a better investment today than they were a few years ago and what gives them an edge over nominal bonds. After, he discusses the supply-and-demand imbalance in natural resources, oil's supply sensitivity versus precious metals, and the green-energy movement. (20:57)
Finally, Bob makes his case for investing in natural resource companies and warns listeners about roll costs when trading in the futures market. He then talks from a macro perspective about productivity in relation to AI. As he explains, AI has not yet led to large productivity advances like we saw with the advent of the personal computer. (37:58)
Mon, 19 Aug 2024 - 57min - 375 - How to Identify the Best Mining and Exploration Companies
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Brent Cook back to the show. Brent is an economic geologist, as well as the founder and senior adviser of newsletter company Exploration Insights. With more than 30 years of experience in property economics and geology evaluations – spanning 60-plus countries – Brent has seen it all. He is one of the most credible, successful, and knowledgeable mining-stock investors in the world. If you invest in mining stocks, this episode is an absolute must-listen experience.
Brent kicks off the show by discussing what's happening at Yellowstone and what he learned from attending Rick Rule's mining conference. Brent warns investors to beware of mining and exploration companies that are picking up old, "dead" projects and redrilling holes, purely to bump up their share price and raise capital. After, Brent details a bit about his career history and how he ended up in geology. (0:43)
Next, Brent discusses what investors should look for when trying to find a mining company worth buying. This includes the narrative of the broader economy, the risk profile, and knowing what kinds of results you want to see from the company in terms of drill results. As he explains, folks should seek high-margin companies with good management teams and with deposits in friendly jurisdictions. He lists off several regions and countries that he believes look promising today, plus some complications he has faced in the past. (19:21)
Finally, Brent names a copper-mining company that he's interested in today. It has water rights, no environmental liabilities, and a project that looks auspicious. He also shares a gold-mining company he likes that's developing a very high-grade deposit in Australia. Brent then explains the difference between mining and extracting gold and copper, and he makes a bullish case for the red metal. (34:02)
Mon, 12 Aug 2024 - 59min - 374 - We're Entering a New Bull Market in Gold
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Rudi Fronk back to the show. Rudi is the founder, chairman, and CEO of Seabridge Gold (SA). With more than 35 years of experience in the gold industry, Rudi is an expert in his field. He joins the podcast to talk all about precious metals mining, future opportunities for gold and copper, and what sets his company apart from the rest.
Rudi begins by giving a brief history of how he got into gold mining. He shares the reason he started Seabridge with shareholder value in mind. He also breaks down some of the risks involved in mining – including working in politically unstable countries – and why he'll never build another mine again. After, he talks a bit about the technical aspects of drilling, exploration, and the process behind estimating how much gold is in the ground. (1:14)
Next, Rudi discusses potential joint-venture opportunities with leading mining companies for Seabridge's KSM property, mainly thanks to increased demand for copper. He also talks about the importance of permitting, catalysts that could move Seabridge's share price higher, offsetting share dilution, and early-stage projects that are in the works. And Rudi makes his case for why gold is entering a new, interesting bull market. (16:55)
Finally, Rudi shares his opinion on bitcoin, talks further about soaring copper demand, and delves into Seabridge's goal of giving back physical gold to investors. As he explains, the KSM property is expected to produce more than 1 million ounces of gold per year for the first 33 years. And 35% to 49% of gold produced will be returned to the company. (33:56)
Mon, 05 Aug 2024 - 59min - 373 - Buy What Wall Street Hates
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by investor and bestselling author Larry McDonald. Larry founded The Bear Traps Report, an investment newsletter that looks at global political and systemic risks when making actionable trades. He is also a frequent contributor on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business News.
Larry kicks off the show by sharing his history as a trader at Lehman Brothers and how certain parts of today's market mirror the 2008 crash. He notes that commodities are extremely cheap while semiconductors just hit an all-time high. Larry predicts that capital will migrate back toward real assets. He also discusses what a second Donald Trump presidential term would mean for the bond market, the huge risk with inflation, and a possible bright spot for the housing market as Baby Boomers age. (1:01)
Next, Larry breaks down his trading strategy involving capitulation. He brings up the extreme 20% discount in copper today and makes a five-year bull case for natural gas. This leads to a conversation about the current hot stocks in artificial intelligence ("AI"). Larry says that the AI mania has gotten so bad, chief financial officers at tech companies have to invest in AI even if they don't want to, for fear of losing their jobs. He believes we're in the early stages of an unwinding. And he notes that many companies adjacent to AI, like those relating to the electrical grid, have been left for dead. (17:36)
Finally, Larry explains that the pain cycles following market bubbles should be longer, but quantitative easing has gotten in the way of that natural process. Bad businesses used to be cleaned out, but now they're able to survive. Larry condemns "evil" passive investing and talks about how much worse the practice has gotten in the past decade and a half. He then lists off a few specific stocks he finds attractive today and advises investors to be careful about buying dips. (36:56)
Mon, 29 Jul 2024 - 58min - 372 - Stop Paying Too Much for Stocks
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome their colleague Mike Barrett back to the show. Mike is editor of Select Value Opportunities and senior analyst of Extreme Value. He joins the podcast to talk extensively about valuations, why you should never pay too much for a stock, and the opportunities he sees in the market today.
Mike kicks off the episode by giving updates on his pecan plantation and his weekly Select Value Opportunities newsletter. He explains that this service helps subscribers beat the market while taking on less risk. The portfolio has returned about 14.5% since inception and has outperformed its benchmark for nearly 80 straight weeks. Mike's secret to outperformance is his system... It focuses on valuations and gives daily rankings of 100 well- known stocks. That way, subscribers can enter positions at an ideal moment. Mike emphasizes the importance of valuation and reminds listeners that it's a metric for future performance. (1:34)
Next, Mike analyzes the differences between valuing stocks in public markets and his past experience with valuing real estate in private markets. Plus, he talks more about momentum being another important factor in picking stocks and how valuations have changed in recent times. As Mike explains, the first year he started his service, only 5% of stocks were overvalued. Now, in the past year, 30% are. This is "unprecedented" and a "warning sign" that investors should be aware of. Still, Mike's system can help prevent huge losses. (19:28)
Finally, Mike gives his opinion on the overall market action and the broader economic picture. He brings up market cycles, his belief that unemployment is about to be a big issue, and factors that will lead gold and silver prices higher from here. He points out that there are fewer higher-paying jobs available now and that most growth has been in lower-paying jobs. This is skewing the jobs data. And he also discusses the importance of the housing sector when it comes to inflation. (37:27)
Mon, 22 Jul 2024 - 1h 02min - 371 - 250 Million Americans Could Die If the Power Grid Goes Down
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by investor and award-winning filmmaker David Tice. David is the chief investment officer and senior adviser of a short-selling exchange-traded fund. He also is partner at Moran Tice Capital Management, an investment-advisory firm.
David kicks off the show by discussing his documentary starring Dennis Quaid, Grid Down, Power Up. The film centers around what would happen if the U.S. power grid went down and the country was left without electricity for a lengthy period of time. David talks about how preventable the catastrophe could be if the government invested in utilities. And he shares that a disaster like this could result in hundreds of millions of Americans dying of starvation or water deprivation. As David emphasizes, this is a very real danger, as America's adversaries are already in the grid from a cyberattack standpoint. (1:36)
Next, David details his short-selling AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear Fund (HDGE). He explains that the fund is up year to date since many bad companies are finally starting to do poorly in the market, especially in commercial real estate. And several factors – overvalued stocks, high interest rates, massive national debt – are setting the country up for a huge decline. David urges listeners to prepare for the worst rather than try to eke out a few more percentage points in gains, especially considering today's geopolitical conditions. (17:44)
Finally, David breaks down how he and his team at HDGE discover companies to short. He cautions, however, that bad stocks can soar just as much as good stocks, so timing is the key factor. After, David discusses his precious metals hedge fund and the huge opportunity he sees in mid-cap producers that are selling extraordinarily cheaply. He lists off two particular gold stocks he's a fan of and explains why he has so much hope for this sector. (34:57)
Mon, 15 Jul 2024 - 1h 09min - 370 - Be Greedy and Let Your High-Quality Winners Run
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by their colleague Whitney Tilson. Whitney is the lead editor on Stansberry's Investment Advisory – Stansberry Research's flagship newsletter – as well as Commodity Supercycles and his free e-letter Whitney Tilson's Daily. Once dubbed "The Prophet" by CNBC for his prescient calls, he joins the podcast to share some financial wisdom with listeners.
Whitney kicks off the show by talking about the value of attending investing conferences and other company meetings. You can gain insights, talk to fellow investors, share ideas, and either discover promising trends or discover which trends are "bombs." Whitney emphasizes that avoiding calamities is just as important as finding the next big investment idea. He shares his experience with short selling and how he actually lost a lot of money by employing the technique. This leads to a conversation about value traps – what they are and how they can lead to ruin. (1:24)
Next, Whitney details his storied history with Netflix and why he went from shorting the company to investing in it. Ultimately, he found a 90-bagger. But he sold the stock early and left money on the table. The "most important lesson" he learned from that experience is to let your winners run. As Whitney explains, that's why index funds outperform almost all active managers over a long period of time – because they never sell their winners. (16:40)
Finally, Whitney hammers home that investors should be selective with stocks and only buy the best-quality businesses. Many of these companies see large drawdowns at some point, which can be perfect buying opportunities... even if you're not able to find the exact bottom. Whitney predicts that Nvidia could see a sizable drop since the company is relatively young and volatile. After, he shares that value stocks, small-cap stocks, and international stocks are all at 20-plus-year lows. This extreme underperformance presents an opportunity for investors wanting to diversify their portfolios. And Whitney also breaks down how to spot a high-quality business that may be struggling in the short term versus a value-trap business that will only head lower. (35:02)
Mon, 08 Jul 2024 - 1h 04min - 369 - You Can't Cut Corners in Investing or in Life
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by E.B. Tucker. E.B. is an author, editor of The Tucker Letter, and investor with decades of experience in the precious metals market.
E.B. kicks off the show by discussing the unavoidable loss of privacy in the modern era, how societal pressures influence the lives of people of all ages, and the strength it takes to challenge these conventional systems. As he explains, in both the real world and in the world of finance, you need to learn to let go in order for something better to come along. E.B. also breaks down why voting as a shareholder is so important. (1:42)
Next, E.B. recommends a few nonfinance books – one about the philosophy of happiness and one about Yemeni coffee. He reminds listeners that life is about doing what makes you feel fulfilled and that you should never live according to others' expectations. This leads to a discussion about the role money plays in giving you the freedom to do whatever makes you happy. (23:16)
Lastly, E.B. talks about his new book he's working on and how he hopes it'll make readers reflect on their own life and learn lessons to help them evolve as people. He relates this to financial teachings, where many readers want shortcuts instead of actually learning for themselves and growing their techniques. E.B. emphasizes that understanding your own relationship to an investment is the real secret to success. (40:44)
Mon, 01 Jul 2024 - 1h 10min - 368 - Where to Find the Biggest 'Hidden Gems' of the AI Boom
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Marc Chaikin back to the show. Marc is a 50-year Wall Street veteran and the founder of our corporate affiliate, Chaikin Analytics. He also created a popular Wall Street indicator that appears in every Bloomberg and Reuters terminal in the world.
Marc kicks off the show by describing why he's so bullish in this presidential-election year. He explains that we're now entering a "sweet spot" for the market, and if there are any election surprises, that would be even more reason to buy in. Marc also lists off some sectors that he's bullish on today, especially in mid-cap stocks. These areas of the market aren't making headlines, but they're seeing steady gains and present attractive buying opportunities. (1:38)
Next, Marc shares his thoughts on the current AI boom and compares it with the introduction of the Netscape web browser in 1995. He discusses profit margins versus valuations, the potential loss of jobs due to AI, and the usefulness of large language models like ChatGPT. According to Marc, there are companies across a variety of industry groups that are going to benefit from AI. Investors just have to find them. (15:45)
Lastly, Marc shares all the details about his newest, most personal newsletter service that will be launching soon. He explains that it's going to focus on finding "hidden gems" – mid-cap or small-cap stocks that are undiscovered but have great valuations. As Marc says, "The focus is prospecting for gold nuggets." With his custom Power Gauge system by his side, Marc is going to find hidden winners – in a range of sectors – that are set to profit from the AI revolution. (34:32)
Mon, 24 Jun 2024 - 58min - 367 - We Need to Stop Thinking About Climate in an Anti-Human Way
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome author Alex Epstein to the show. Alex has written several books advocating for the use of fossil fuels, including his most recent work, Fossil Future. The self-described "energy-freedom advocate" joins the podcast to challenge the popular climate-change narrative and provide more context for the crucial role fossil fuels play in society.
Alex kicks things off by weighing in on the debate around climate change and the effects of fossil fuels. He argues that the benefits of using fossil fuels far outweigh the negatives and that, in many cases, energy can be used to overcome any adverse effects. Alex also breaks down the myth of unsustainability, the anti-human bias implicit in environmentalism, and the incorrect belief that more folks die of climate-related catastrophes today than in the past. (2:38)
Next, Alex discusses his impact with politicians and lawmakers. He explains that 200 major political offices use his content to direct policy and become more informed on energy topics. Alex then shares his opinion on climate change, pointing out that we're currently in a climate renaissance and that the Earth has never been more livable for human beings. He brings up geoengineering as a way to cool the climate, asserts that the negative environmental impacts are severely overblown, and emphasizes the crucial role energy plays in the economy. (21:30)
Finally, Alex talks about climate-change rhetoric dominating in elections, the harm that tech companies have done by blatantly lying about being 100% renewable, and why humans should take pride in the fact that we're progressing as a species and learning to use the Earth in new ways. He puts the anti-impact perspective into both a philosophical and historical context, noting that primitive religions believed "sinning" against nature had dire consequences. (34:19)
Mon, 17 Jun 2024 - 1h 02min - 366 - A New Government Act Could Disrupt the Biotech Industry
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome their colleague John Engel to the podcast. John is the lead equity analyst on the Stansberry Innovations Report newsletter, where he finds companies that are revolutionizing their respective industries with cutting-edge technology. He also works on Prosperity Investor, a newsletter that focuses on opportunities in the health care sector.
John kicks off the show by detailing the new Biosecure Act that's currently moving through Congress. Its purpose is to limit China's access to U.S. biological information. As he explains, this legislation is going to disrupt the industry, hurt biotech companies, and possibly even bankrupt the smaller players. But, conversely, it's going to allow other contract development and management organizations to replace Chinese ones, creating massive opportunities for investors. John also shares how he got his start in the biotech field at a fermentation lab and as a molecular biologist before shifting to the world of finance. (2:19)
Next, John talks about the pandemic, vaccines, and the current bear market in biotech. He mentions one big story in biotech that he believes isn't getting enough attention – bispecific antibodies. This development allows one drug to hit two targets, so patients no longer have to receive two different drugs for treatment. This leads to a conversation about gene editing, personalized medicine, and rare diseases. (22:01)
Finally, John delves into AI, Nvidia, and the "hype cycle" surrounding the technology. He points out that companies are desperate to use AI to their advantage, but for many of them, there's no use for it in their business. Plus, John discusses "advanced general intelligence," which involves systems that can reason like human beings. (42:27)
Mon, 10 Jun 2024 - 1h 09min - 365 - The U.S. Is Headed Off a Cliff
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Dave Collum back to the show. Dave is a professor of chemistry at Cornell University and associate editor of the Journal of Organic Chemistry. He's outspoken about many topics and issues ranging from finance to politics and everything in between. And he brings this same no-holds-barred attitude to today's podcast. Dave starts off by discussing the link between vaccines and autism, why "live" attenuated vaccines are better than "dead" ones, and the effects of the COVID-19 vaccine. He specifically mentions how children in the U.S. receive about 72 vaccinations during childhood, while children in Europe receive only three. He also argues that the war in Ukraine is a direct result of NATO interfering and forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin's hand. (5:31)
Next, Dave talks all about the U.S. government. He breaks down why the U.S. has never supported burgeoning democracies abroad and why it's a better move geopolitically for the country to work with a single leader or a select few in power. He compares President Joe Biden with former President Donald Trump and asserts that Biden wouldn't be able to make tough calls in a time of crisis. After, Dave makes his case for why we're headed for a 40-year bear market that will drag down Americans' standard of living. (24:27)
Lastly, Dave contends that AI risks taking the human element out of everything, dampening creativity, and cluttering scientific literature. He then discusses the role of pedophilia in geopolitics and the prevalence of child trafficking. And he leaves younger listeners with some sage financial advice. (45:39)
Dan and Corey close the show by discussing the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge – the core personal consumption expenditures ("PCE") index. The newest core PCE data shows that inflation has stabilized at 2.8% for the past three readings. Even though this is down from much higher levels in 2022, Dan and Corey point out that everyday consumers are still struggling with far higher prices while their paychecks don't keep pace. (1:11:12)
Mon, 03 Jun 2024 - 1h 32min - 364 - You Can Profit From the Government's 'Corrupt' Banking Program
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Chris DeMuth Jr. Chris is a co-founder and managing partner of hedge fund Rangeley Capital. He invests in mispriced securities with limited downside and corporate events that unlock value for shareholders. Chris kicks things off by explaining what event-driven investing is, how he uses it, and how the concept of "counterparty selection" is involved. He also breaks down what demutualization and remutualization are and how there are numerous opportunities in the banking sector today to deploy these strategies. According to Chris, many small-cap community banks out there are attractive in terms of valuation versus large caps. (3:11)
Next, Chris describes the U.S. Treasury Department's "inept, corrupt, and profligate" Emergency Capital Investment Program ("ECIP"). He gives two in-depth examples of ECIP bank stocks that were trading for far less than they were worth – Bay Community Bancorp and Ponce Financial. And he discusses why investors who got in early enough will profit from them greatly. (16:03)
Lastly, Chris names three stocks that he's excited about right now and details the specifics of each one. The first is a tax-efficient real estate and financial-services conglomerate trading at a discount to its asset value. The second is a Russian-owned mining company operating in Venezuela that should soon benefit from litigation against the Venezuelan government. And the final one is a hospice provider with a lot of potential for a private-equity shake-up and then subsequent acquisition by a larger health care company. Plus, you won't want to miss Chris' answer to the final question, where he explains how you can gain an edge as an investor simply by researching topics you're genuinely interested in. (29:44)
Dan and Corey close the show by discussing Nvidia's recent blowout earnings, including its 262% revenue gain. Since the company provides the "picks and shovels" of AI, it's benefiting massively from the boom in this space. This leads Dan and Corey to compare AI stocks with Internet stocks during the dot-com bubble, speculate on what could happen next, and explore the disconnect between the markets and the economy. (57:56)
Tue, 28 May 2024 - 1h 22min - 363 - 2021's Crazes Are Still Kicking Today
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome their colleague Bryan Beach back to the show. Bryan is the editor of Stansberry Venture Value and a senior analyst on Stansberry's Investment Advisory. Bryan kicks the show off by discussing the GameStop meme-stock craze and the deep-value market dynamics that were at play during the whole debacle. He argues that the "dumb money" folks (such as Keith Gill) got a bad rep and the self-titled "smart money" folks weren't very smart. (3:13)
Next, Bryan talks about the bubbles in special purpose acquisition companies ("SPACs") and Software as a Service ("SaaS"). He points out that the pendulum can quickly swing from overloved to overhated. Bryan shares that, because of this, he's still finding winners in the SPAC scrap heap and he believes SaaS valuations are far too low today. He also explains how retail investors got clobbered by the smart money on SPACs and why cannabis stocks present such a good opportunity now with the impending reclassification of marijuana. (17:33)
Lastly, Bryan emphasizes the importance of stop losses and "guideposts" since they take the emotion out of investing. This leads to a discussion of Amazon and its many drawdowns over the course of its trading history that would have stopped investors out. After, Bryan brings up small-cap restaurant-software company Par Technology and why he has so much hope for its future performance. (28:02)
Dan and Corey close things out by talking more about the resurgence of meme stocks – GameStop and AMC Entertainment, in particular – and what it means for the market as a whole. Plus, they talk about this new era of inflation we're in, the worst-case scenario of rebounding inflation, and the long-lasting consequences of low interest rates. (55:39)
Mon, 20 May 2024 - 1h 28min - 362 - Fiscal Dominance Is Threatening the U.S. Today
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Lyn Alden to the show. Lyn is an independent analyst, bestselling author, and founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy – an investment research service for both retail and institutional investors. She kicks the podcast off by describing how her background in engineering has influenced her macroeconomic investing style. She explains why she became so interested in macroeconomics in the first place and why 2017 was a turning point for the U.S. economy. Lyn also talks about fiscal dominance – or when fiscal deficits and federal debts are large enough that they start reducing a central bank's options. She puts this in the historical context of the 1970s and clarifies why inflation and interest rates are so complexly intertwined today. (4:39)
Next, Lyn shares her outlook for the U.S. economy, including higher-than-baseline inflation for the foreseeable future and the country being in a similar situation to emerging markets. She discusses areas of the market where fiscal dominance has been appearing over the past few years, how the 2010s taught investors the wrong lesson, why the U.S. may experience the same economic troubles that Japan is facing right now, and the divergence between sectors going through recessions versus those that benefit from deficits. (16:42)
Lastly, Lyn cautions listeners against using the traditional 60/40 portfolio in inflationary environments like today's and instead urges them to prioritize energy, precious metals, and hard assets. She also breaks down why she finds Latin America so attractive today (particularly Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico) and gives an in-depth explanation of how technology impacts money. (34:03)
Dan and Corey close things out by discussing the backlash to Argentine President Javier Milei's economic shake-up, including his devaluing the peso against the U.S. dollar and laying off thousands of government workers. Plus, they share their thoughts on the latest speculative meme craze – closed-end fund Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) – and what it means for the broader market. (54:28)
Mon, 13 May 2024 - 1h 24min - 361 - Get Into Oil Before It Hits $100 Per Barrel
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by the founder and president of Chisholm Exploration, Cactus Schroeder. Cactus kicks off the conversation by describing the current economics of the oil industry, why rig counts are deceptive, what's happening with the Haynesville Shale and Marcellus Shale, and the upside in natural gas. He also explains why the Barnett Shale has become so attractive, how Chisholm Exploration differs from the oil majors, and how these larger companies essentially control the price of oil. (4:18)
Next, Cactus discusses why his company prefers oil to natural gas, earthquakes as a side effect of drilling, and how the Biden administration has been hampering exploration and pipeline development. He also details his experience in the Eastern Shelf region, including both good and bad wells and royalty interests. (21:52)
Lastly, Cactus covers the oil major he finds the most interesting today, the green-energy movement, and what's on the horizon for oil. He brings up Saudi Arabia cutting oil production in an effort to make prices reach $100 per barrel, the consequences of the war in Gaza, and the ongoing fight between land ownership and mineral rights in different states. (31:03)
Dan and Corey close things out by discussing the consequences of the Drug Enforcement Administration moving to reclassify marijuana as a Schedule III drug. They analyze what has been happening with cannabis stocks since the announcement and the tax implications behind the move. Plus, they talk about Starbucks' recent disappointing earnings report and what weight-loss drugs becoming more available could mean for the economy and certain stocks. (53:32)
Mon, 06 May 2024 - 1h 16min - 360 - AI Is Changing Everything You've Learned About Investing
David Trainer, the founder and CEO of New Constructs, joins the show. He kicks off the conversation by describing how his company takes value investing to the next level with AI. He explains that the days of buying stocks and holding them forever are gone. Today's investing landscape requires investors to be more agile, and AI helps with this. David specifically mentions how he uses AI to sort through millions of financial filings, footnotes, and data points to give him an edge and produce better results. However, he warns that AI is only as good as the data that goes into it. (3:49)
Then, David talks in depth about how humans are still involved in the investing process, including making decisions when the AI is unsure how to interpret certain findings. He breaks down how New Constructs' technology is giving clients a competitive advantage and augmenting the rest of their strategy. Plus, David discusses the importance of using both technicals and fundamentals when investing, and he shares why expectations matter so much to valuation. (14:34)
Lastly, David names the two sectors he finds most attractive and two that folks should avoid. This segues into a conversation about a recent pump-and-dump scheme used to take advantage of retail investors, why the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission doesn't take action even when it should, and the damage done by years of low interest rates. (33:35)
Dan and Corey close things out by discussing inflation and the hotter-than-expected numbers for the personal consumption expenditures index. They cover unrealistic investor expectations for rate cuts, the government's misplaced priorities, and the very real consequences of this persistent inflation on workers and small businesses. (51:20)
Mon, 29 Apr 2024 - 1h 14min - 359 - Savvy Investors 'Buy Straw Hats in Winter'
David Daglio, the chief investment officer and global investment strategist of wealth- advisory firm TwinFocus, joins the show. He kicks things off by describing himself as a contrarian, and he explains that understanding who you are as a person will lead to the best investing results. After, he goes into detail on how TwinFocus looks for creative "straw hat" solutions that the market isn't seeing. Plus, he talks about risk premiums, the current opportunity in natural gas, and the 30-year discount in gold-mining stocks. (3:29)
Next, David discusses the advantages and disadvantages of working at a large firm versus being an individual investor. He shares that individual investors have the advantage of not being overloaded with information, plus they're their own boss and can make their own decisions. David also details the three conditions TwinFocus looks for before jumping into an investment, the importance of recognizing your own intellectual biases, and how market skepticism can be a huge opportunity. (15:29)
Lastly, David talks about "net-net" companies in the biotech sector that are trading for less than their total assets... he breaks down what capital imbalance is and how to spot it... and he explains that the savviest investors try to be like Spock from Star Trek, valuing facts over feelings. (28:49)
Dan and Corey close out the podcast by discussing the Stansberry Research editorial meeting that happened last week. This meeting brings Stansberry's editors and analysts together to discuss different investing ideas and pertinent world news. One of the hot topics at the meeting was the presidential election in November. Dan and Corey emphasize that the best investors keep politics out of their investing decisions and stick to their core strategy regardless of which candidate takes office. (49:22)
Mon, 22 Apr 2024 - 1h 09min - 358 - Stick to Your Process, Even When It's Painful
Gary Mishuris of Silver Ring Value Partners talks about today's market being one of the most challenging periods for bottom-up investing since 2007. In terms of the quality of a business versus its stock price, there isn't a lot of opportunity right now. But he emphasizes that transparency and candor with clients is essential, as is prioritizing the long-term process over short-term performance. (5:19)
Next, Gary describes what sets Silver Ring Value apart from other fund managers. He shares why he left the "sausage factory" of larger firms behind, how his firm makes money for clients rather than off of clients, and how his unique temperament and behavioral models allow him to make better investing decisions. (14:38)
Gary also goes into detail on the psychology behind investing and compares it with a game of poker. He talks about trying to avoid making mistakes, continuously learning from past errors, the importance of having guardrails in place, and cutting your losses. (21:44)
Then, Gary explains why you should never be ashamed to change your mind, even when you haven't received any new information. It's OK to reanalyze the same set of facts and admit that you were wrong, and he cites several examples of investors who have learned and grown from their past mistakes. (31:21)
Lastly, Dan and Corey discuss the consumer price index and gold. Inflation came in hotter than expected, while gold has broken out to new highs. Dan and Corey speculate on how long gold's bull run can last. Plus, they detail gold being a good hedge for retirement against the government's money-printing addiction. (48:18)
Mon, 15 Apr 2024 - 1h 12min - 357 - Ignore the Mega-Bubble Mania and Prioritize Shareholder Yield
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing inflation staying persistently higher, rampant government spending and money-printing, and the repercussions of the Federal Reserve's decade-plus of low interest rates. (0:41)
Next, Cambria Investment Management's Meb Faber joins the conversation to talk about the exchange-traded funds ("ETFs") at Cambria and why the team focuses on shareholder yield when picking stocks for these ETFs. He breaks down the importance of shareholder yield in mega-bubble markets like today's and urges investors to pay more attention to it. (24:25)
Meb then discusses managing risk on a portfolio level, including focusing on quality and value. He also covers why emerging and foreign markets are so attractive today, the opportunity in fixed-income investments like bonds and Treasury bills, and how higher interest rates have changed the game. (38:21)
Finally, Meb describes himself as a value investor and shares which areas of the economy he's most concerned about. He talks about inflation driving commodities sharply higher, gold hitting new highs, and why investing at all-time highs can still be a smart choice. (56:43)
Mon, 08 Apr 2024 - 1h 16min - 356 - The Best Investors Treat Trading Like Blackjack
Dan and Corey kick off the show by reviewing the most recent PCE number, what's happening with inflation, and the current state of the economy. (0:41)
Next, real estate expert and entrepreneur George Gammon joins the conversation and explains how he became a self-described "macro addict" without any formal education in the world of finance or economics. Plus, he discusses why he considers himself a libertarian and why most investors and billionaires would fall into this category, even if they don't self- identify as such. (21:59)
Further, George describes how his investment style is influenced by being a libertarian. By default, his view is that the government is always going to do the wrong thing, resulting in unintended, net-negative consequences. George also goes into detail on the similarities between value investing and trend following. He argues that successful value investors are always looking for a catalyst so that they can catch the trend at its very beginning stages, while stereotypical investors are happy to catch the middle portion of the trend. (34:16)
Lastly, George explores the biggest differences between retail investors and professional investors. He details the strategy that the best hedge-fund managers use: starting with a macro view and then looking at the fundamentals and the narrative later. George emphasizes that these experts spend most of their time deciding how to position themselves and using asymmetry to stack the odds in their favor like in a game of blackjack. (46:32)
Mon, 01 Apr 2024 - 1h 14min - 355 - Finding the Winning 6% of Drugs
Dan and Corey kick off the show by arguing against the Federal Reserve potentially cutting rates this year. They point out that inflation is persistently volatile, gas prices are soaring and hurting everyday consumers, and the Fed is "pretending that everything is OK," according to Corey. Dan also brings up the fact that 2024 being an election year may have something to do with this. (0:43)
Next, Stansberry Venture Technology editor Dave Lashmet joins the conversation to discuss the biotech industry. He explains that he doesn't see biotech as a sector, and rather he looks bottom up at biotech companies to find a drug that will have a macroeconomic effect. Because only 6% of drugs that start a Phase I trial succeed, he says being selective is crucial. Dave also describes the three phases of drug testing and the importance of efficacy and safety data. (17:55)
After, Dave talks all things weight-loss drugs. He reflects on how he knew Ozempic was going to be a blockbuster drug from his boots-on-the-ground research, the incredible room for growth in this area, and the unprecedented amounts of money that biotech companies are spending on factories to develop these weight-loss drugs. (24:36)
Further, Dave discusses why the obesity epidemic has worsened over the decades and how exactly weight-loss drugs work to increase metabolism and suppress appetite. It involves something he calls the "winter switch." Plus, Dave brings up the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approving these drugs for the purpose of reducing strokes and heart attacks by nearly 20%. (32:40)
Lastly, Dave talks about the widespread economic implications behind weight-loss drugs and other areas of the market that could be impacted, such as the airline industry. However, Dave emphasizes once again that any mass changes are still years away due to supply constraints. (41:20)
Mon, 25 Mar 2024 - 1h 00min - 354 - Why Biotech Is an Excellent Contrarian Play Today
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing both bubbles and "anti-bubble" stocks. Dan mentions how the S&P 500 Index's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, with data going back to 1871, is currently in the top 1%. He even believes this is the biggest mega- bubble in all of recorded history. (0:41)
Next, Porter & Co. analyst Erez Kalir joins the conversation and shares his financial philosophy. He talks about investing legends who have influenced his investing style, the importance of avoiding labels, and how successful investing is similar to using a Swiss Army knife. Plus, Erez explains the yin and yang of macroeconomics versus security-specific fundamentals and how there are extreme periods where one can entirely dominate the other. (13:00)
After, Erez goes into detail about biotech – the sector's history in the stock market, how it's shaped by interest rates, and how you can find companies trading at an extreme discount with negative enterprise value. He argues that not being able to time the markets is merely a myth, and he shares the seven factors he uses to evaluate whether a biotech stock is worth buying. (21:59)
Lastly, Erez explains why the conditions are right for biotech stocks today. He covers the sector being hated and how this gives savvy investors a chance to break away from the herd and profit. (38:36)
Mon, 18 Mar 2024 - 1h 00min - 353 - 'Boring' Times Ahead Could Mean Fantastic Gains
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing famed economist Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini and his current bullish stance. They explore whether Dr. Doom is correct in his optimism, if gold's new all-time highs are here to stay, and what could happen next with bitcoin. (0:41)
Next, Stansberry Research editor Brett Eversole joins the conversation and talks about where he thinks stocks will go this year thanks to the election. After, he analyzes the overall health of the market using several different metrics, urges investors to invest based on the size of a company's market capitalization, gives his thoughts on whether small-cap stocks can catch up to the rest of the market, and reviews moments of extreme volatility in history. (16:49)
Further, Brett describes a shareholder yield fund and how it works. He points out that if you buy companies that return a lot of cash to shareholders, those companies tend to go up a lot over time. He also discusses the strategies he uses in his True Wealth publication to find winning stocks, buy in at the right time, and protect capital. (29:35)
Finally, Brett explains why he isn't investing in individual Chinese stocks today, but he provides one unique way to still profit from China that you may have never heard of. (47:15
Mon, 11 Mar 2024 - 1h 07min - 352 - You're Only Ever a Contrarian or a Victim in Natural Resource Investing
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing Warren Buffett's recent letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. In it, he honored his late colleague and friend Charlie Munger, plus gave updates on some of Berkshire's businesses. Dan and Corey also cover Apple switching its resources over from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence. (0:41)
Next, Rick Rule – president and CEO of Rule Investment Media – joins the conversation. He goes into depth on models, such as the discounted cash flow model. He talks about the flaws with models, why models are only useful for apples-to-apples comparisons, and how a model can be used on exploration companies or similar companies that don't have revenues. (24:32)
After, Rick goes into detail on the uranium market. He describes why uranium companies have mothballed production, what makes uranium so unique in the natural resources world, the differences between the spot and term markets, and how to interpret uranium companies' financials. (33:18)
Lastly, Rick calls out several commodities that present good investing opportunities today. He describes one of them as "stupidly cheap"... another he says is hated by investors and its market is in disarray... and the final two, he explains, are being sold off because of an incorrect belief that we don't need internal-combustion engines anymore. Rick even goes one step further and namedrops specific companies that could be worth looking into to take advantage of these price discounts. (49:15)
Mon, 04 Mar 2024 - 1h 11min - 351 - Tactical Turning Points Are the Secret to Finding Winners
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing new highs in the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index, and chipmaker Nvidia's stock. They analyze what these new highs mean, whether the U.S. is still in a mega-bubble, what's happening with the Japanese economy, and if Nvidia can continue its outperformance. (0:41)
Next, Chaikin Analytics Chief Market Strategist Pete Carmasino joins the conversation and describes his investing style. He notes that he mainly looks at price. By using technical analysis and studying the fundamentals, trends, and the relative strength versus the market, he can decipher whether a stock is overbought. (20:28)
Further, Pete talks about the importance of risk management and taking advantage of tactical moves. He gives investors advice for how to determine when something is a tactical sell or a tactical buy, discusses the relationship between technicals and fundamentals, and explains why he looks at both offensive and defensive sectors for investing opportunities.(25:55)
Pete then details why he's never too bullish or bearish at any given time, plus how the Chaikin Analytics Power Gauge system helps him find potential winners. He describes his process for interpreting the signals and discusses the fundamentals he needs to see to be interested in a stock. (39:47)
Lastly, Pete hammers home the importance of rates – particularly the unemployment rate, since the Federal Reserve uses it to determine the federal-funds rate. He also shares the top five subsectors currently and names a few stocks within those sectors that could be worth keeping an eye on. (51:15)
Tue, 27 Feb 2024 - 1h 06min - 350 - Don't Let Your Ego Drive You to Make Bad Decisions | Harley Bassman
Dan and Corey kick things off by discussing bitcoin hitting a new multiyear high. They also critique a popular bullish argument for bitcoin, which is based off the U.S. dollar collapsing. After, they talk about the S&P 500 Index surpassing 5,000 for the first time ever and whether this level is sustainable in the long term. (0:40)
Next, Harley Bassman of Simplify Asset Management joins the conversation and explains a concept called "convexity." He covers the three kinds of risk in bond investing, why short convexity is always lurking during market downturns, and why negative convexity is so difficult for investors to process. (24:53)
Harley also goes into detail on mortgage-backed securities funds. He describes what mortgage bonds are, why they yield more than corporate bonds, and how the Federal Reserve plays a huge role in all of this. (32:20)
Lastly, Harley talks about Simplify and how it offers a unique service by jamming derivatives of all kinds (futures, options, etc.) into ETFs so civilians can invest in them. He also discusses what it was like working at Merrill Lynch during the great financial crisis, gives general investing advice, and explains what pin risk is. (48:55)
Wed, 14 Feb 2024 - 1h 12min - 349 - It's Time to Upgrade Capitalism
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing debt spirals, death spirals, their effect on things like GDP and economic growth, and the increasing reliance on debt spending. They point out that the U.S. government's annual interest payment on debt will soon surpass the budget for national defense. Dan also speculates that the government is using illegal immigration as a means to depress wages. (0:41) Next, crypto expert Eric Wade joins the conversation by discussing his current thoughts on the crypto market as a whole. He notes that the U.S. just approved bitcoin spot ETFs, which will allow investors to profit from bitcoin without actually holding the token. He also brings up the bitcoin halving that's happening this April, AI's role in crypto, and how crypto is being used to solve real-world problems. Eric briefly name-drops two such cryptos that have real- world applications today. (22:08)After, he goes into detail on his new book called America vs. Americans: How Capitalism Has Failed a Capitalist Nation and What We Can Do About It. This book focuses on American "laborism," the shortcomings of our current capitalist system, and how all of this could be improved. Eric describes that government, economics, and politics are a lot closer together than they should be. He explores the history of capitalism and talks about the glaring flaws of the economic system that preceded it – mercantilism. (35:30) Eric then transitions into talking about laborism and how it could be an upgrade from capitalism. He spends the rest of the episode detailing how it could pull millions of folks out of poverty, why it would be so closely tied to education, and the fact it would call for a hard currency and a smaller government with less government intervention. As he explains, it could solve many of the country's problems. (42:35)
Mon, 05 Feb 2024 - 1h 32min - 348 - Successful Trading is the Antithesis of Human Nature
Dan and Corey begin the show by discussing evidence that we're still in a bear market. They bring up equal-weight indexes fizzling out since December, the now "Magnificent Six" tech stocks still dominating, and the possibility of a decade long sideways market.
After, contrarian trader Jason Shapiro of digital publishing company Crowded Market Report joins the conversation and gives an overview of his trading style, his financial journey, and how his strategy differs from many other traders'. While others are looking to ride the trend, Jason explains that he's looking to "fade" it and find when the trend will turn. When speaking specifically about putting the risk-reward ratio in his favor over time, he says the discounting mechanism in the market is not price – it's participation.
This segues into a discussion about how Jason's process works. He gives advice to individual investors who are just starting out, including warning of the dangers of following trends and "copy trading." He also details how trading goes against human nature.
Then, Jason discusses automation in his field of work – when he uses it and when he ignores its advice – and provides some examples of his strategy in action. He emphasizes that market confirmation should always come first
Lastly, Jason explains why he's so adamant about sharing his approaches and techniques with everyday investors that they can't find in traditional financial media. And you won't want to miss Jason's answer to the final question... He shares what he believes is the real secret behind making money in the markets.
Tue, 30 Jan 2024 - 1h 09min - 347 - The Easiest Way to Rank Almost 5,000 Stocks
Dan and Corey kick things off by discussing Argentine President Javier Milei's incendiary speech at the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. They start by quoting some passages from it and covering the main themes – from the negative consequences of government intervention to potentially abolishing the central bank. After, they talk about why this type of rhetoric from a politician would never fly in the U.S., even though it reflects a lot of people's feelings.
Next, Stansberry Research Director of Research Matt Weinschenk joins the conversation and elaborates on what type of investor he considers himself to be. He brings up value investing, the importance of bottom-up business-quality analysis, and how he uses quantitative tools to find the best businesses.
Matt then explains the "Stansberry Score," which ranks nearly 5,000 stocks from first to last. It assigns each stock both an overall number and letter grade, plus letter grades for financials, capital efficiency, and valuation. Investors can use it to check ratings on stocks they may be interested in, or they can use it to find hidden gems. If you're interested in learning more about this tool and trying it for free, you can check it out at StansberryAnnouncement.com.
Matt also goes into detail on The Quant Portfolio. This new portfolio is fully optimized and uses Stansberry Score data to evaluate each stock. Entirely using computers and algorithms, it looks at the relationships between each stock and picks out the best ones that will work together to provide the highest returns. And so far, it's blowing the market out of the water! Matt emphasizes that in the past two years of live testing, The Quant Portfolio is up 20%, while the market is only up 5.
Lastly, Matt talks all things econometrics – what it is, whether it's worth studying, and its interplay with machine learning.
Mon, 29 Jan 2024 - 1h 07min - 346 - Get Ready for Volatility warns Greg Diamond
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing car-rental company Hertz selling one-third of its electric-vehicle ("EV") fleet and planning to reinvest in gas-powered cars. They talk about the reasons for this move, why EVs might not be a popular choice as rentals, signs that oil and gas companies are still thriving, and how the green-energy transition could lead to higher inflation.
Next, welcome Stansberry Research analyst Greg Diamond joins the conversation and analyzes the current volatility in the markets. He explains that investors and the financial media believe the Federal Reserve has beaten inflation and is going to start cutting rates soon. But as Greg notes, the opposite is most likely to happen. He also goes into detail on his study of cycles.
Then, Greg predicts important inflection points for 2024, describes how legendary trader W.D. Gann influenced his trading strategy, and explores the potential ramifications of the Fed ending its bank lending program in March. He also details why he'll be trading sectors for the first half of the year rather than individual stocks.
Lastly, Greg talks about correlations between the S&P 500 and specific exchange-traded funds. He assesses what it means for the markets when divergences happen and how extreme volatility leads to great buying opportunities. As Greg sums things up, "I think it's going to be a rough ride for bulls and bears."
Wed, 17 Jan 2024 - 1h 14min - 345 - Don't Place all Your Chips on One Outcome
Dan and Corey begin the show by discussing Disney. They cover the company's ongoing proxy battle with Nelson Peltz, its recent deal with activist investor ValueAct Capital, the negative impacts of its "wokeism," the new Star Wars director's controversial past comments, and whether the stock is worth buying today. (0:40)
Next, Jeff Muhlenkamp joins the conversation and gives his reaction to a "surprising" 2023. Plus, he talks about what's in store for the markets this year, why it's unclear whether we're headed for a recession or not since, and how you should structure your portfolio to protect you no matter what happens. (26:23)
Then, Jeff explains what he learned from the great financial crisis in 2008 and how he applies it to his investing strategy today. He gives investors advice on everything from keeping some cash on hand to handling stocks that soar quickly. (35:40)
Lastly, Jeff discusses regional banking (44:00), two notable stock buys (46:47), and his process for picking stocks (51:31). He details which metrics he looks at, why financial newsletters are good places to look for ideas, and how to know when to exit a stock.
Mon, 08 Jan 2024 - 1h 10min - 344 - The Top 10 Potential Surprises for 2024
Dan Ferris and Corey McLaughlin kick the episode off by reviewing their list of Top 10 Potential Surprises from 2023 and seeing if any of the surprises materialized. Included in this list was what could happen to the S&P 500 Index, meme stocks GameStop and AMC Entertainment, inflation, bitcoin, mortgage rates, and gold. (0:32)
After, Dan and Corey share their new list of potential surprises for 2024... Magnificent Seven perform poorly (9:38) S&P 500 negative annual return (13:16) Rate cuts (15:58) Gold hits $3,000 (19:15) Bitcoin falls 50%-plus (24:04) PCE at 4% (28:08) Donald Trump presidency (31:51) Nasty recession (37:27) 10-year yields above 4% (42:15) S&P 500 drops 20% in a single day (44:52
Wed, 03 Jan 2024 - 1h 00min - 343 - Stansberry Investor Hour's 2023 Year in Review - Mailbag Edition
On this week's special mailbag episode of Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan Ferris and Corey McLaughlin are answering some of the most interesting questions they've received in recent weeks from subscribers. They tackle everything that has been on your mind – and a few things that you probably haven't even considered. Dan and Corey kick things off with questions about whether the green-energy movement and threats to eliminate fossil fuels will boost the price of oil... the broken housing market in the U.S. and what it means for homebuilders... nuclear energy's potential as a big source of power in America... and where uranium prices are headed next based on the supply-and-demand picture.
Next, Dan and Corey address a listener who hates that they let the cat out of the bag on the upside in farmland... and respond to another listener who wants them to talk more about specific stocks and less about the Federal Reserve. Plus, Dan and Corey answer questions about political correctness, the love of money being the root of all evil, how to profit from war, and why they prefer U.S. Treasurys to money-market funds.
Finally, Dan and Corey discuss the threat the high national debt level poses for the U.S., the development of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) as a geopolitical and economic power, and whether the U.S. losing its world reserve currency status would really be such a bad thing.
Wed, 27 Dec 2023 - 51min - 342 - How to Avoid Losing Your Mind in the Market with Hari P. Krishnan
Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing 2023 as a whole. They talk about the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a new all-time high recently and investors looking forward to the Federal Reserve cutting rates. Plus, they go over what they're bullish on for 2024 – including homebuilders, bitcoin, and energy, among others.
Next, author and hedge-fund manager Hari Krishnan joins the podcast to discuss his toolbox of strategies for profiting after a market sell-off. He notes that there are times that are great for buying credit, while other times aren't so good. And the same principle applies to other areas of the market as well, like with volatility.
The conversation then shifts to how the average investor could utilize Hari's strategies. He gives a few examples of what to do in different scenarios. And he especially emphasizes the importance of having a plan.
Further, Hari details how he assesses and categorizes risk. He describes why he looks at consistency across different asset classes and how this helps him find winning investments. Plus, Hari talks about the cycles of volatility, using equities as an example. He explains that risk taking drives the market upward, which leads to even more risk taking. It then becomes a vicious cycle that feeds on itself until it breaks.
Finally, Dan asks Hari for his opinions on the S&P 500 Index's recent rally. Hari brings up the fact that there are currently high levels of complacency in the markets, and he argues that now is a great time for investors to think about hedges for their portfolios. He finishes by urging investors to look beyond the U.S. stock market and to broaden their opportunities with other asset classes.
Tue, 19 Dec 2023 - 1h 14min - 341 - Why Companies Are Afraid of Being Politically Correct with Whitney Tilson
Dan and Corey kick the show off by discussing the newest unemployment number and its implications for inflation, rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the stock market, and the future of the economy. They speculate that this unemployment rate could result in the Fed putting off rate cuts for even longer.
Next, Whitney joins the conversation by discussing the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks and explains why he thinks smaller-cap, more value-oriented stocks will be driving the markets next. He also compares Tesla CEO Elon Musk's "rampant narcissism," "bro culture" at the company, and antisemitic tweets with exemplars like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.
This leads to a discussion about how cultural differences affect businesses. Whitney brings up Anheuser-Busch's Bud Light ad campaign with a transgender influencer and Disney fighting Ron DeSantis' controversial bill in Florida. He shares why he thinks companies are "running pretty darn scared these days" after seeing both those iconic businesses suffer for taking political stances.
Then, Whitney talks about his Top 10 list. He details why Berkshire Hathaway continues to be such an attractive opportunity today and why it's the perfect foundation for any portfolio. And he also emphasizes that we are no longer in a TINA world, or "there is no alternative."
Finally, Whitney gives his opinion on what he thinks the Fed will do next in terms of interest rates and what the potential outcomes could be. You also won't want to miss his answer to Dan's final question, where he explains why it's crucial to limit the amount of "partisan and polarized" information you're consuming in traditional media, since it could be affecting your investing choices.
Tue, 12 Dec 2023 - 1h 13min - 340 - It's About to Be 2008 All Over Again
Dan and Corey start by remembering Charlie Munger, reviewing his career and legacy. Plus, they cover Elon Musk's recent remarks against Disney, the chances of X (formerly known as Twitter) going bankrupt, and Musk's efforts to bring free speech to the platform. (0:40)
Next, Joel and Rob join the show to discuss the narrative around a soft landing, the rolling- recession "nonsense," and investors getting lulled into a false sense of confidence and believing everything is fine in the markets. Joel details the macroeconomic signals that are flashing globally – from China's failings dragging the world down to hyperinflation and recession in multiple Latin American countries. Joel explains why he and Rob have recently made a major change in their forward market outlook. (26:18)
Rob adds that another reason for their bearishness is the current credit environment. Credit is the lifeblood of the American economy. But now, it's disappearing. And according to Rob, that will further hurt economic growth. Plus, Joel explains that this same setup happened at the beginning of the great financial crisis. (34:21)
The conversation then shifts to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's devotion to lowering inflation to 2%, the reality of "structurally higher" inflation, and how high interest rates are leading to massive investing opportunities in near-term cash-flow companies. (38:37)
Finally, Joel and Rob discuss the bond market and why they find it so attractive today... give their opinions on "terrifying" business development companies... and analyze the Fed's next moves in regard to unemployment. (46:18)
Mon, 04 Dec 2023 - 1h 06min - 339 - Don't Let Money Be Your Master Warns Jared Dillian
Dan and Corey kick off the show by giving a sneak peek at their list of 10 things that would surprise investors in 2024 and where they predict the markets are headed. Specifically, they discuss the unassailable Magnificent Seven – which are "priced for more than perfection" – and why the high valuations aren't sustainable. While the other "Unmagnificent 493" stocks in the S&P 500 Index are essentially flat and it's "still a bear market for everything else," the Magnificent Seven have screamed higher. Dan warns that they're not safe.
Afterward, Jared joins the conversation and gives some tips on how to make finance less stressful. He shares that it's important to not cut out small luxuries that bring you happiness, like a Starbucks coffee every now and then. Rather, he says to focus on cutting costs for the bigger items. He also explains that being too conservative with your money can be detrimental.
The conversation shifts to discussing the two main sources of financial stress: debt and risk. Jared explains that these sources of stress aren't correlated with how much money you have and instead are entirely based on how you structure your finances.
Jared then talks about the market as a whole and shares some predictions. He covers why he has been focused on the bond market for the past six months, why he expects a recession next year, what he thinks will happen to Treasurys and interest rates, and the psychology behind inflation.
Lastly, Jared details why he owns essentially no U.S. stocks and instead has his money in Argentine stocks. Plus, he describes another emerging market that presents a "huge opportunity" for investors. As he says, "There's other places in the world to go where there's a lot more growth that are a lot more promising." Don't miss his thoughts on the best way to get exposure to that potential growth story.
Mon, 27 Nov 2023 - 1h 05min - 338 - The Imminent Death of the Middle Class with Porter Stansberry
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Porter Stansberry back to the show. Porter founded Stansberry Research in 1999, and he recently returned as CEO and chairman of parent company MarketWise (MKTW). With more than 25 years of experience as a financial analyst and publisher to draw on, Porter shares his opinions on the current state of the markets and which areas of the economy look most attractive today.But first, Dan and Corey talk about investors' unfounded hopes for falling interest rates and some Wall Street analysts predicting that the Federal Reserve will soon cut rates by 150 basis points. "I just don't see that happening," Corey says. Afterward, the conversation shifts to the bond market, the drop in demand for U.S. Treasurys, China "imploding minute by minute," and the biggest "turkeys" who have made the most absurd financial decisions this year. Plus, Dan explores investor psychology and how it has been warped by a decade-plus of low rates and the longest bull market in history. (0:00)
Porter then joins the show and discusses why Ayn Rand's 1957 book Atlas Shrugged continues to be relevant today, General Motors' chances of going bankrupt again, and his "new, old" job as CEO of MarketWise. He explains his strategy for the company going forward. (25:08)
Moving on to the broader economy, Porter shares an updated prediction of what he sees coming for the market. In mid-September, he was concerned we were on the cusp of another major financial crisis. But now he thinks the immediate danger may be past. (42:34)
Porter also shares that most quality businesses out there trade for high valuations, but those with unrecognized quality still present fantastic buying opportunities today. Even companies that have recently made negative headlines can still have incredible underlying value.(48:48)
Finally, Porter details what's happening in the bond market right now and why he believes it's worth investing in. And you won't want to miss his parting message, where he explains why it's a great time to be alive despite any global issues or societal problems. "Most investors make the mistake of not being optimistic enough," he says. (57:35)
Mon, 20 Nov 2023 - 1h 16min - 337 - A Needed Dose of Reality in a Sea of Pessimism with Marc Chaikin
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Marc Chaikin. After 50 years working on Wall Street, Marc founded our corporate affiliate – Chaikin Analytics – to guide everyday investors. Marc starts by describing how his Power Gauge helps investors identify stocks, excel in timing investments, and most importantly, prevent portfolio losses. "No matter how good your fundamental research is or quant model [is], if the market doesn't agree with you, guess who wins? The market always wins; you're investing in what I call "dead money," he states.
Then, Marc explores 2023 being a difficult year for bearish investors, the likelihood of a recession, and how artificial intelligence ("AI") has led to unprecedented productivity enhancements. "That's where this whole convergence of technology, data, and machine learning comes in. I think it's going to unleash unbelievable advances in medicine, data analytics for retail, and self-driving cars eventually," he asserts.
Finally, Marc shares his thoughts on today's market, including the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, the U.S. national debt, the real estate sector, and 10-year Treasury yields. He explains that he and many other leading investors are bullish on stocks, but the media prefers doom-and-gloom headlines for clicks. "They just don't want to put optimists on TV because it's not controversial," he concludes.
Mon, 13 Nov 2023 - 1h 02min - 336 - The Weight Loss Revolution is Underway
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by David Cervantes, principal and founder of Pinebrook Capital Management. David shares his groundbreaking thesis that could transform not only health care but also the broader economy. But first, Dan and Corey discuss disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried being found guilty of fraud, coworking-space company WeWork's impending bankruptcy, and fluctuating Treasury yields. (00:48)
Next, David joins the conversation to detail the far-reaching consequences of obesity, plus the potential impact of new weight-loss drugs on the economy. He notes that obesity not only places a significant financial burden on the health care system but also hampers overall productivity and gross domestic product ("GDP") growth rates. However, David clarifies that GLP-1 (or glucagon-like peptide 1) drugs have the potential to revolutionize obesity treatment. (26:28)
David then explores the potential winners and losers of this medical innovation. He stresses that it's not too late to make money off the drug manufacturers since there are plenty of companies developing and trying to improve these weight-loss drugs right now. He also touches on other sectors that will benefit from mass weight loss. (41:45)
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Mon, 06 Nov 2023 - 1h 05min - 335 - Why Gold Is on the Brink of a Historic Surge
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Rudi Fronk, chairman, CEO, and co-founder of Seabridge Gold (SA). But first, Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing the latest numbers for gross domestic product ("GDP") and the core personal consumption expenditures price index. Then, they also explore what they think the Federal Reserve will do next and what will happen to the stock market. (00:41)
Next, Rudi joins the show to chat about Seabridge Gold, the outlook for the gold market, and risk within the industry. Rudi emphasizes that Seabridge is not a mining company, and it instead partners with major mining companies to co-develop assets while retaining around 40% to 49% interest in projects. (16:21)
He believes the current challenges in the Treasury market as well as hedge funds using leverage to accumulate positions will ultimately drive gold prices to new heights. Rudi boldly predicts that gold will surpass its previous all-time high of approximately $2,063 an ounce by the end of this year. Moreover, he details why he foresees gold's price surging to multiples of its current value over the next few years. (24:26)
Rudi concludes by explaining why it's so difficult for mining companies to turn a profit and why so many of them never get any dollars out of the ground. "I don't have a high respect for most of my industry," he says simply. If you're interested in investing in the gold industry or just want to know more about it, don't miss this week's show. (36:32)
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Mon, 30 Oct 2023 - 51min - 334 - It's the End of Globalization as We Know It with Peter Zeihan
In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome geopolitical strategist and critically acclaimed author Peter Zeihan back to the show. But first, reporting live from the conference, Dan and Corey share their insights from this valuable event for subscribers. They offer a recap of the presentations delivered by notable figures, including Stansberry Research founder Porter Stansberry, legendary cyclist Lance Armstrong, and respected financial writer Morgan Housel. (:41)
Then Peter joins the show to dissect the ongoing Ukraine situation and other geopolitical conflicts dominating the headlines. Peter discusses Israel's strategic shift from being a technology consumer to a producer, saying "Israelis, almost to a Chinese scale, were stealing tech... and so they decided to go in the business of making tech." Dan and Peter also explore investment prospects in Israel, what a peace treaty between Saudi Arabia and Israel would mean, how Iran could disrupt the peace process, and incompetence in the Israeli government. (16:50)
Finally, Dan and Peter shift their focus to China. The nation is undergoing dramatic shifts in demographics and experiencing a severe population decline, which has profound implications for the nation's future. Peter predicts that China will cease to exist as a unified industrialized nation within the next decade. (36:18)
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Mon, 23 Oct 2023 - 53min - 333 - Mindless Buying: The Driving Force Behind Modern Market Dynamics with Michael Green
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Michael "Mike" Green. Mike is the chief strategist and portfolio manager of Simplify Asset Management – an investment advisory firm. He has spent nearly 30 years studying markets and market structures, and he brings his decades of insight to today's show.
But first, Dan and Corey discuss the evolving landscape of the bond market, the opportunity in Treasury bills, and the potential impact of high bond yields on the broader investment world. Corey warns...
Take advantage of it now, because if the economy goes in the crapper in the future, the [bond] rates are going to go down when the Fed cuts [interest] rates.
Mike then joins the conversation to delve into the world of passive investing, which involves never transacting and only ever holding assets. This leads to a strategy of mindless buying:
[The stock market is] marching upwards, being led by a very few number of extremely large-cap stocks that have relatively limited growth prospects... In real terms, PepsiCo's sales are down over the last decade. This is true for companies like Apple where their sales growth, since the introduction of the iPhone 5, [is] stagnant... certainly not justifying the types of valuations that we see.
Finally, Mike details how the Federal Reserve can influence the markets with interest rates, and in turn how interest rates can affect passive investing. Moreover, he highlights the unique opportunity in the bond market and explains why bonds are an attractive option for investors.
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Tue, 17 Oct 2023 - 1h 05min - 332 - 'Investing Is Back' – But It Looks Different
In this week's episode of Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Harris "Kuppy" Kupperman back to the show. But first, Dan and Corey discuss the surprising employment numbers that exceeded expectations and fueled speculation about further interest-rate hikes. They also cover the turbulence in the bond market and the significance of the yield curve finally correcting after more than 18 months of inversion. (00:41)
Next, Kuppy joins the show to express his skepticism about the widespread belief that the world can revert to "normalcy," that interest rates will decline, and that another bull market will kick off. Instead, he explains why he thinks there will be significant changes in the next couple of years while "everyone's playing the old playbook." (20:22)
Kuppy also gives his take on the overall economy, addressing sectors with inflationary correlations. He describes his outlook on inflation as a series of sine waves, with periodic fluctuations of heating up or cooling down. However, he focuses on the overarching trend of upward inflation and predicts that it will surpass previous highs in the coming years. (31:24)
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Mon, 09 Oct 2023 - 1h 01min - 331 - Why the BRICS Expansion Isn't the End of the Dollar
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by renowned economist Jim Rickards, who details his illustrious career, the development of the BRICS currency, and its potential ramifications for the global monetary system. But first, Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing store closures, Amazon's monopoly allegations, and commercial real estate's decline. (00:41)
Next, Jim joins the conversation to share some of what he has learned during his storied career, specifically from being the general counsel on a hedge fund's $3.6 billion rescue deal. He also explains why he grew dissatisfied with risk management and how he became one of the first in finance to use "complexity theory." (20:06)
Dan then steers the conversation to the BRICS initiative – i.e., the five countries' goal to create an alternative currency that will challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar. Jim explains the origins of BRICS, highlighting how they have created financial institutions similar to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. (33:31)
Jim stresses the significance of the BRICS currency, as it would facilitate trade among member nations without the need to rely on the U.S. dollar. However, Jim emphasizes that a BRICS currency should not be interpreted as the end of the U.S. dollar's reign. Rather, it would be a formidable competitor in the global currency arena. (41:41)
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Mon, 02 Oct 2023 - 1h 05min - 330 - Why U.S. Stocks Are Flashing Code Red
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Joel Litman, the founder of our corporate affiliate Altimetry. But first, Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing the latest Federal Reserve meeting, a recent study about what happens to stock price when artificial intelligence ("AI") gives answers at earnings calls instead of humans, and the emergence of a robot CEO for a rum company. (00:00)
Next, Joel joins the conversation and gives the reasons for his growing bearish sentiment. He points out some significant red flags that have caught his and his fellow analysts' attention, including the historical pattern of a credit crisis preceding every major bear market. Joel explains that the current sentiment and valuation trends are heading in the wrong direction. (16:42)
Joel then moves on to the impact of high interest rates on the market. He explains that he and the folks at Altimetry employ "Uniform Accounting" principles, meaning they do not use the same price-to-earnings multiples as Bloomberg or CNBC. Instead, they perform their own calculations. Joel argues that, to control inflation, interest rates need to be maintained at a level higher than what Fed Chair Jerome Powell seems to favor. (20:56)
Finally, Joel discusses U.S. stocks being overallocated in investors' portfolios today and why this serves as a concerning indicator of market conditions. Plus, looking globally, he details why he finds Chinese and Russian stocks unattractive for investment. (37:36)
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Mon, 25 Sep 2023 - 1h 04min - 329 - Bullish Momentum vs. Bearish Concerns: Will 2024 Be a Trader's Market?
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Stansberry colleague Greg Diamond the editor of Ten Stock Trader, a trading service based on technical analysis. Dan and Corey cover the European Central Bank raising its rates to a multidecade high, inflation "killing people on Main Street" who are racking up credit-card debt, and poverty levels rising. (00:41)
Next, Greg joins the conversation by talking about his overall perspective on the market. He explains why he thinks "2024 is going to be a trader's market" despite believing that huge uptrends will come to an end. And he says banks will play a crucial role in determining overall market health (18:03)
Regardless of these concerns, Greg maintains a bullish sentiment as long as the existing upward trend remains intact. "It's not time to sell yet," he emphasizes. He then proceeds to share his insights on the Fed, highlighting its inherently political nature and its susceptibility to political influence. (30:53)
Finally, Greg discusses his primary objective when determining whether a market is poised to rise or fall. To leverage his positions, he frequently embraces higher risk levels but carefully optimizes his trading advantage in other ways. (40:14)
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Mon, 18 Sep 2023 - 1h 00min - 328 - Two Experts Reveal Their Bullish Picks - AI, Energy, and More
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by two of their Stansberry Research colleagues, Matt McCall and Brett Eversole. But first, Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing three famous investors who all made headlines recently for giving negative future market outlooks.
Brett and Matt join the conversation by talking about why they're bullish right now. Matt notes that the reason 2022 was so brutal for investors was because of the Federal Reserve rapidly raising interest rates. While one more small rate hike before the year's end is possible, Matt still thinks the rate cycle is nearly over. This would, in turn, be good for equities and move the markets higher.
Then, Brett shares some of his AI-industry favorites... and notes that the market as a whole has the potential to massively increase productivity, leading to increased margins. Specifically, Brett believes there's a structural change happening in the companies that make up the stock market.
Finally, Brett and Matt talk briefly about housing supply and homebuilders before launching into the energy sector. Brett emphasizes that while there's a push for green energy, we're going to need fossil fuels for a very long time. Plus, Matt highlights the problem of many renewable-energy projects being completely built but unable to get onto the energy grid because the grid is so old.
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Tue, 12 Sep 2023 - 1h 02min - 327 - The Hottest Sector to Find Beaten-Down Value
This week in Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by their Stansberry Research colleague, Bryan Beach. Bryan is the editor of Stansberry Venture Value, which is Stansberry's small-cap value newsletter. Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by dissecting the latest in the market, starting with the recent Republican political debate and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's presence in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. (00:00)
Bryan then joins the conversation to break down his value-investment approach. This approach extends across industries and is guided by the pursuit of "value nuggets." One of Bryan's central investing tenets involves identifying companies that have experienced significant declines in value. And right now, the Software as a Service ("SaaS") space is a prime example of such undervaluation. (20:53)
The conversation then shifts to Bryan's previous role as an accountant. He recalls Wall Street's historical inclination toward upfront software-purchase models, which encompassed future maintenance packages and fees. But Salesforce changed all that in the early 2010s by reshaping the software landscape. The transition toward the SaaS model gained remarkable traction between 2015 and 2021. (27:50)
More recently, SaaS companies have experienced a downturn in popularity. But Bryan sees this as an opportunity. Bryan and Dan go into how if Warren Buffett were a young investor today, he would likely be captivated by the software sector. The two draw connections between Buffett's historical interest in newspapers and the appeal of software business today. Bryan highlights their affordability and upward momentum, making them prime investment candidates. (46:00)
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Mon, 28 Aug 2023 - 1h 05min - 326 - Honest Money: The Power of Gold in Monetary Systems
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Keith Weiner. He's the founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, a gold investment firm. But first, Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing the potential implications of stress in the bond market, and how bond yields have been showing signs of movement. Plus, they highlight that the yield curve could be signaling a recession sign. (00:00)
Next, Keith joins the conversation by sharing his beliefs on gold and the world's monetary system. He starts with his "origin story," describing how he founded and then sold a successful software company. Then Keith and Dan shift gears to dive into the current state of the economy. With three of the largest bank failures in history this year and the U.S.'s credit being downgraded recently, they discuss how this may be affecting people's attitudes toward gold. (18:34)
Finally, Keith goes on to share his insights on the debate of gold versus bitcoin. He emphasizes that gold's stability and millennia-long history of wealth preservation give it an edge over any cryptocurrency. While bitcoin has seen speculation and massive price fluctuations, gold's enduring stability makes it an attractive choice for conservative savers, even in times of economic uncertainty. (40:53)
Mon, 21 Aug 2023 - 1h 06min - 325 - Uncovering a Once-in-a-Lifetime Shift in Farmland Investing
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Artem Milinchuk to the show. He's the founder and Head of Strategy for FarmTogether. First, Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing the last CPI and PPI reports. While the CPI reading came in at 3.2% inflation, certain components within the CPI are much higher. Inflation is still here, and now it's just a matter of what direction it goes and what the Federal Reserve does next. (00:00)
Next, Artem joins the conversation to share the benefits of farmland investments. Farmland boasts comparatively lower volatility than stocks, real estate, gold, and other asset classes. Artem highlights that the charm of farmland lies not only in its resilience during inflationary and recessionary periods but also in its capacity to diversify portfolios. (16:15)
The discussion shifts to the impact of elevated prices and interest rates on farmland investments. Artem provides insights into the broader farmland market, revealing that a significant majority (98%) of farmland is currently family-owned. He anticipates substantial changes in ownership over the next two decades, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture projecting a transformation of up to two-thirds of farmland. (24:00)
Artem shares his extensive experience investing in farmland on behalf of others since 1992, achieving impressive returns of approximately 10.5%. He concludes by drawing a noteworthy comparison between farmland investing and U.S. Treasuries, highlighting farmland's potential as a robust hedge against inflation. (44:57)
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Mon, 14 Aug 2023 - 58min - 324 - Gold Is Thriving, but Silver Needs a Recession
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Patrick Yip, director of business development at the American Precious Metals Exchange ("APMEX"). Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing the latest news surrounding their skepticism of the U.S.'s credit downgrade and discuss the recent jobs report and the implications of unemployment levels reaching a historic low. (00:43)
Then, Patrick joins the conversation to talk about the silver and gold markets and their respective prices. He notes that there's almost a lack of interest in precious metals right now, which has led to them being undervalued. Patrick believes that a recession would give them the chance to appreciate significantly in the coming years. (19:40)
With regards to the role of the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency, Patrick raises concerns about the dollar being weaponized for political agendas. This would prompt investors to seek refuge in gold and silver. Yip also delves into the nuances of choosing between coins, bars, and rounds in the precious metals market. And he offers practical advice for investors based on their individual preferences and investment goals. (38:46)
Then, Dan asks Patrick about the idea of minting a trillion-dollar platinum coin as a way to avert the debt ceiling... To hear Patrick's opinion on whether this proposal would work and what would happen to the price of precious metals if the government were to mint such a coin, check out today's podcast. (52:40)
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Mon, 07 Aug 2023 - 1h 03min - 323 - Debunking Fears and Misconceptions About Nuclear Energy With Doomberg
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by an anonymous guest referred to as "Doomberg." Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates. Corey mentions that Chairman Jerome Powell let some "subliminal thoughts" on inflation slip, hinting at what the Fed may be planning from here. (00:00)
Next, Doomberg joins the conversation to discuss why he and the rest of his team have decided to remain anonymous and shares his thoughts on Ontario's energy-strategy document and how the province is far ahead of the U.S. in its energy journey. (19:15)
Doomberg then discusses his take on climate change. He mentions that he's bullish on the human spirit and the ingenuity required to fight climate change. That said, he believes it's unfair to minimize the impact that modern human development has had on the environment. The state of industrial pollution, for example – especially in China – is a real-world scandal. (29:50)
Finally, Doomberg concludes with the prospect of a gold-backed currency and nuclear power. He and Dan discuss the ongoing anti-nuclear propaganda and the need to reevaluate the public perception of nuclear energy as a viable and safe solution to climate change. (45:53)
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Mon, 31 Jul 2023 - 1h 07min - 322 - The Achilles Heel of the Green-Energy Transition
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, investing veteran Rick Rule returns to the show. Rick is president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and a director at Sprott. He joins Dan and Corey to talk about the trend of global electrification and all things copper. (00:00)
Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing a crucial topic – the global net-zero-emissions target set by institutions, corporations, and governments. To achieve this ambitious goal by 2050, there will need to be an increase in green-power generation and electric vehicles. A significant rise in demand for this essential resource would lead to higher copper prices. (00:48)
Rick then joins the conversation to share his profound insights on the electrification of the world. The copper talk continues, with Rick passionately emphasizing that achieving net-zero emissions is an inevitable and vital goal. Dan raises pertinent questions about copper production's inability to keep pace with demand. (22:07)
Then, Dan and Rick cover the two major copper-producing nations that have been at the forefront of meeting this demand... Chile and Peru. While Chile's mining industry is threatened by shifting political priorities, Peru grapples with the influence of nongovernmental organizations. (43:18)
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Mon, 24 Jul 2023 - 1h 03min - 321 - The Impending Decline of U.S. Dollar Dominance in an Era of Multipolarity
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome frequent guest Marko Papic back to the show. Marko is a partner and chief strategist for asset-management platform Clocktower. Together, they tackle the shifting landscape of globalization, the dominance of the U.S. dollar, and investment opportunities in emerging markets. (00:00)
Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing the perplexing issue of the U.S. government "losing money while making money." They explore the implications of this inefficiency and its connection to the broader topics of inflation, recent Consumer Price Index data, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policies. (00:41)
Then, Marko joins the conversation to share his thoughts on multipolarity, or the distribution of power among several countries. Despite the rise of emerging markets and the global shift toward multipolarity, the U.S. dollar remains the predominant currency worldwide. Marko believes "the dollar will continue to have stickiness as a predominant currency," but he predicts a steep decline within the next year." (28:07)
Marko concludes by highlighting that investors can still profit by adopting a longer-term perspective that considers geopolitical and macroeconomic trends. He suggests keeping an eye on economies with favorable prospects, such as Indonesia's control of the Nickel market, Vietnam's vital role in global trade, and Mexico's refrain from fiscal stimulus packages. (45:57)
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Mon, 17 Jul 2023 - 57min - 320 - Emerging Markets 101: How to Invest Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Paul Podolsky. Paul previously worked as a strategist for Bridgewater Associates – one of the largest hedge funds in the world – for nearly 16 years. Now, he's the founder of Still Press, an author, and the host of the Things I Didn't Learn in School podcast.
But first, Dan and Corey discuss Ben & Jerry's recent tweet about "stolen Indigenous land," as well as the broader implications for businesses engaging in political activism. They explore the potential impact on market performance, consumer behavior, and the overall perception of companies like Target, Disney, Starbucks, Unilever, and Anheuser-Busch. (00:41)
Paul then joins the conversation to highlight his experiences at Bridgewater under billionaire investor Ray Dalio and share insights on the second-largest economy in the world, China. He says Chinese assets can offer positive expected returns and low correlation with other assets, which makes them attractive today. However, Paul draws from his experience with trading Russian assets to inform his views on China. He emphasizes that the future of both China and Russia remains uncertain. (19:40)
Lastly, Paul shares his insights on another potentially lucrative emerging market... Chile. Despite the challenges Chile faces due to political fluctuations, Paul explains how it remains an investable option for those seeking diversification. As global economic debates continue, it's crucial for investors to carefully evaluate the potential returns and risks of investing in emerging markets. (45:27)
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Mon, 10 Jul 2023 - 1h 03min - 319 - 'The Wise-Man Problem' – Low-Hanging Fruit Individual Investors Overlook
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by equity analyst John Zolidis. He's the president and founder of Quo Vadis Capital, which provides research for both professional money managers and individual investors, specifically in the retail and restaurant sectors.
Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing what they're bullish on – what they like, what they want to buy, and what they're buying. Corey expresses optimism in U.S. stocks, citing their recovery and global financial leadership as "the best house in a bad neighborhood." Dan shares his optimism for the housing sector, highlighting historically low inventory levels. (00:41)
Then, John joins the conversation to share his perspective on the possibility of beating the market and overcoming cognitive biases in investing. He brings up "the wise-man problem," referring to the cognitive bias that arises from an individual's belief that they have seen and understood all market situations based on past experiences. (19:41)
John challenges the belief that outperforming the market is impossible, citing the importance of understanding companies and long-term prospects. John emphasizes the need to align investments with financial goals and avoid short-term performance targets influenced by media hype. He believes a longer-term perspective is the key to gaining an edge as an individual investor. (39:23)
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Wed, 05 Jul 2023 - 59min - 318 - Midyear Market Outlook: What Our Mailbag Tells Us About Investor Sentiment
In this special mailbag episode of Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey delve into a wide range of questions from their audience. They shed light on prevailing market sentiments and offer valuable advice. But first, Dan debriefs Corey on his recent trip to Vail, Colorado for the VALUEx conference
This is a valuable conversation on investor sentiment that you won't want to miss. And it even provides insights that will help guide investors seeking to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape. Keep sending your thoughts and questions to feedback@investorhour.com and let us know what's on your mind!
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Mon, 26 Jun 2023 - 46min - 317 - How Constraints Drive Success in Value Investing
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by frequent guest Vitaliy Katsenelson. He's the CEO and chief investment officer at portfolio-management company Investment Management Associates, or IMA. In his fourth appearance on the Investor Hour podcast, Vitaliy returns to discuss his approach to being a constraint investor and discovering undervalued companies for all his clients.
But first, Dan and Corey talk about the recent Federal Reserve meeting, the implications of the central bank's words and actions, and where they think the Fed will go from here. Dan and Corey both believe that in the near term, the market is telling us that we're coming to the end of the rate-hike cycle but "people just aren't buying it" yet. Since the stock market has been doing well these past couple of weeks, Dan thinks the Fed probably won't start cutting rates anytime soon. And because the unemployment rate is still near a record low, Dan and Corey argue that it's the only logical place to look when making a case for rate cuts.
Vitaliy then joins the conversation to share the origin of his vacation-style conference, VALUEx Vail... the screening process for attendees... and what Dan should expect while attending this week in Vail, Colorado. Afterward, they discuss the importance of constraints in life and how that relates to investing. Dan says...
"People are really creative when they are backed into a corner and they have a lot of constraints on them."
Tue, 20 Jun 2023 - 59min - 316 - 'Plan The Trade, Trade The Plan' – How Optimism Shapes Successful Investing
In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour podcast, Dan and Corey are joined by Enrique Abeyta, an analyst from Empire Financial Research. Enrique shares his insights on investing and offers stock advice through his newsletters. The discussion starts with the recent lawsuits filed by the SEC against Coinbase Global and Binance for offering securities without proper licenses. Enrique then talks about his mosaic approach to investing, which involves analyzing various data points and perspectives. The conversation also covers the impact of technology on asset management and newsletters, the value versus growth investing debate, and Enrique's views on the banking industry.
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Mon, 12 Jun 2023 - 1h 00min - 315 - How to Navigate Speculative Resource Investing With Jeff Phillips
In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Jeff Phillips. He's a well-respected expert in the resource and mining industries and president of Global Market Development. With more than 20 years of experience consulting with Fortune 500 companies and government agencies, Jeff is one of the most trusted names in his field. Now, he's giving us an exclusive look into his "highly speculative" approach to investing. But first, Dan and Corey discuss the recent impressive U.S. employment numbers and their potential impact on interest rates. According to Dan, "It ain't looking like a recession anymore." After that, Dan and Corey examine the burgeoning artificial-intelligence ("AI") bubble – highlighting Nvidia's recent run, its continued growth, and its varying effects on different professions and sectors.
Then, Jeff joins the conversation to talk about his unique approach to speculation. Jeff shares his belief that the financial markets are facing a significant problem and are on the verge of a substantial decline in asset valuations. However, amid this cautionary note, Jeff highlights the potential for exceptional growth in speculative natural resource stocks. He thinks they're a promising investment in an otherwise uncertain market landscape...
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Tue, 06 Jun 2023 - 1h 08min - 314 - 'Attackers and Defenders' Are Key to Building a Strong Portfolio
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Alfonso "Alf" Peccatiello. He's the founder and CEO of disruptive investment-strategy firm The Macro Compass. His company provides educational macroeconomic analysis and professional portfolio strategies to bridge the gap between Wall Street and everyday investors. And Alf brings those same skills to the podcast by simplifying complex topics for our listeners.
Dan and Corey begin the episode by talking about chipmaker Nvidia. Its recent earnings report sent shares soaring and prompted one of the biggest moves in U.S. stock market history by market cap. Part of the reason for that big move was the company projecting a huge increase in sales next quarter. The chips that Nvidia makes will help with the coming artificial-intelligence revolution, so investors are buying in hand over fist. However, Dan and Corey question whether the company is worth these high valuations.
Alf then joins the conversation to discuss the debt ceiling. He predicts that U.S. politicians will probably reach a deal to raise it... but he also analyzes the magnitude and severity of damage to economic growth that a default would bring. Alf further explains that he believes Republican Party members are using time to their advantage to try to get the best out of the deal, since the Democrats took more time to start negotiations. Regardless of what happens with the deal, he warns... Investors must always have attackers and defenders in their portfolio.
Next, Alf mentions the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes and how those have caused U.S. stocks to remain relatively expensive. But even with this poor outlook for U.S. stocks, he points out that you can still find "attackers" in Japanese stocks. With the country's nominal growth picking up, wages rising over 4%, and the new Bank of Japan governor not rushing to raise interest rates, Japanese equities are reasonably valued and poised for growth.
Lastly, Alf and Dan revisit March's banking meltdown. Alf notes that loose regulations led to terrible risk management, but he argues that the rest of the banking industry will not be affected much. Now, though, the second part of the problem is exposure to commercial real estate, credit quality, and the asset quality of bank loans. In short, the banking system is deteriorating. Tune in to hear Alf and Dan's take on what's coming next so you can prepare yourself for this slow-moving train wreck.
Tue, 30 May 2023 - 1h 11min - 313 - How to Pick the Winners and Avoid the Losers in Gold Stocks
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by fellow Stansberry Research analysts John Doody and Garrett Goggin. John, an ex-economics professor, started Gold Stock Analyst (GSA) in 1994 and even popularized the metric "market cap per ounce." Meanwhile, Garrett is a chartered financial analyst and certified market technician who started his career on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange before ultimately joining GSA in 2010. Dan and Corey start off by talking about how economists have continued to call for a recession in the coming three months... for the past nine months. With consumer spending growing, gross domestic product ("GDP") rising, and the housing market looking better, the two discuss the possibility that we're already in a recession... and question whether we need to reevaluate the criteria for a recession. Dan notes that despite two consecutive quarters of negative GDP – the textbook definition of a recession – an official recession has still not been called. John and Garrett then join the conversation to discuss the recent run on banks. Garrett notes that the federal-funds rate is too high. With the economy slowing down, he says that the Federal Reserve will have to start cutting rates soon. Plus, if the government raises the debt ceiling, the Fed's balance sheet will continue higher. This will be a good thing for gold. As Garrett explains... A banker's best friend is a shareholder's worst enemy. The conversation then shifts to John's gold stock portfolio. He mentions that he only looks for companies that have already completed a feasibility study or are already in the production stage. John points out that the gold companies in his portfolio are all at different stages in the process. He also warns that there could be a two- to three-year period after the feasibility study where nothing exciting happens to the stock. Adding to that, Garrett emphasizes that when looking at gold companies, it's imperative to analyze how the company is being managed. That way, you can make sure it's generating good shareholder value. Lastly, Garrett and John argue that royalty companies are structured to get lucky... by locking in costs. The companies do this so that as the price of gold rises, they can continue expanding. As long as one of its 100 mines does well, a royalty company will thrive. Royalty stocks certainly have their benefits in comparison with mining stocks. But as John and Garrett discuss, mining stocks are also extremely leveraged.
Tue, 30 May 2023 - 1h 04min - 312 - The Slow-Moving Reality of the Housing Cycle and Inflation Concerns With Bob Elliott
In the latest episode of Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Bob Elliott to the show. Bob is the co-founder, CEO, and chief information officer of Unlimited, a firm that uses machine learning to create products that replicate index returns. Bob drops in to share his valuable perspective on inflation intricacies and supply-chain issues.
But first, Dan and Corey address the unique challenges the housing market is facing right now... particularly how homeowners are holding on to their properties due to historically low mortgage rates. While advantageous for homeowners, this trend has reduced housing supply and subsequently driven prices upward.
Bob Elliott then joins the conversation to provide his insights on the current state of the Consumer Price Index. He highlights the underlying inflation in the economy, which is closely tied to wages and service prices, resulting in a stable inflation rate of 5%. He explains...
"Once we started to get a flattening out of oil prices... and used auto prices... those going from falling to flat has a positive pressure on inflation."
Bob also delves into the gradual nature of housing cycles and the dynamics of the housing market throughout and following the pandemic.
"That's the nature of these cycles... They don't progress rapidly. They aren't the kind of force that will drastically alter the Federal Reserve's outlook within the next three months."
Bob explains that numerous structural and tactical factors influence these cycles. However, as input costs decrease, construction activity is expected to increase, which will eventually stimulate economic growth.
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Mon, 15 May 2023 - 1h 04min - 311 - The 'Big Bottom' Looms - Why the Final Drawdown Could Be Near
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Chris Igou. Chris is a fellow Stansberry Research analyst and the editor of DailyWealth Trader, a daily trading advisory. But first, Dan and Corey argue that banking regulations "hand the incumbents an advantage" and restrict competition. According to Dan, consolidation in the banking industry – like JPMorgan Chase's recent takeover of First Republic Bank – can create backstop and incentive issues. Dan also shares his belief that interest rates will remain higher than expected for longer, despite the market consensus for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Then, Chris joins the conversation to discuss his trading style and macroeconomic outlook for the market. He shares how the Fed's rate hikes are increasing the cost of borrowing and squeezing earnings, leading to smaller profit margins. Chris also notes that the S&P 500 Index's most significant drawdown in this current bear market has been 25%. That number is relatively normal for a bear market, since the average drop during a recession is typically around 40% from peak to trough. He explains... "We've got some time where credit is going to be tight and unemployment is still at 3.5%... Historically, you just don't bottom there." Finally, the trio analyzes previous false bear market rallies that would get investors excited and optimistic before hitting a sudden downturn. Chris warns that the same could happen this time around. He cites the bear markets of 2000, 2008, and 2020 as examples and shares that he expects more pain in the coming months based on historical patterns.
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Mon, 08 May 2023 - 59min - 310 - The Four Key Factors for Analyzing Fed Events Amid a Deepening Banking Crisis
This week's episode of Stanberry Investor Hour features John Netto, author of investing book The Global Macro Edge.
Dan and Corey start the episode by examining the recent failure of First Republic Bank – the second-largest U.S. bank failure to date – and its acquisition by JPMorgan Chase. They raise concerns about the ongoing banking crisis and the role the government plays in backing "too big to fail" banks. With three of the four largest bank failures in U.S. history happening in the past two months, there's growing uncertainty heading into this week's Federal Reserve meetings. Then, John joins the conversation and shares insights from his book, including the concept of how emotions act as the lubricant for decision-making. He says that traders often make the mistake of analyzing their success based solely on the results rather than how well they executed their process. To combat this phenomenon, John created the "Netto number." He explains how it can help investors recognize when their strategy begins to decay and how they can use it to maximize returns. The discussion then shifts to central banks and monetary policy, with John describing his four factors for analyzing Fed events. Based on his analysis, John argues that the Fed will not be cutting rates this year and will instead be keeping them near a 4.5% to 5.5% pace until the second quarter of 2024... "Because we have interest rates at 7%, it's going to take a long time for this housing inventory to roll over." He asserts that if we go into a recession, it will be a very mild one. You can hear his full reasoning in today's Investor Hour.
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Mon, 01 May 2023 - 1h 07min - 309 - 'The Next Bankruptcy Wave is Just Starting'
In this week's Stanberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes fellow Stansberry Research analyst Mike DiBiase to the show. Mike came to Stansberry in 2014 after spending nearly two decades in finance and accounting. He now serves as our bond-investment expert.
To kick the episode off, Dan and Corey discuss the latest home-sales data, how these numbers compare with the previous year's, and what this means for the economy going forward. Dan emphasizes that the housing market is a crucial indicator of a looming recession, and he questions the potential impact of inflation when the market collapses...
"Yes, we're going to cry uncle at some point... when the market [does], where will inflation be?"
Mike then joins the conversation, and the three delve deeper into recessionary trends and post-pandemic inflation. Mike explains why the current inflationary period reminds him of a famous quote by economist Milton Friedman – "Money-printing is like alcoholism" – and that the bad effects have to come first to cure inflation.
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Mon, 24 Apr 2023 - 1h 03min - 308 - Liquidity is Collapsing and the Fed's Still Taking Away the Punch Bowl'
In this week's episode of the Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes back Mike McGlone, a Senior Commodities strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence with over 25 years of experience in the industry. Mike shares his insights on the direction of US agriculture, the possibility of liquidity collapsing, and the current bear market rally.
Prior to the interview, Dan and Corey discuss the escalating tensions between Taiwan and China. They mention how due to these geopolitical concerns, Warren Buffet recently sold 86% of his position in Taiwan Semiconductor Company (NYSE: TSM). However, Buffet's move into Japanese investments, which he currently owns about 7.4% of, is consistent with his belief in America's resilience. Dan notes that he won't necessarily follow Buffet's lead, but it's still interesting to see what he does.
“This could be the greatest economic reset of our lifetime.”
Then, Dan introduces Mike, and the two break down how the S&P 500 and bond market both suffered significant corrections last year due to the Federal Reserve raising rates too much and too late. As we tilt towards a significant recession, and the Fed continues to tighten, time will show if bonds will be some of the best assets.
Mike and Dan then delve into various commodities, including natural gas, gold, and crude oil. They highlight how gold may become a more attractive investment option in the near future, with the stock market reaching its most expensive level compared to GDP, sales, and housing, and the Fed tightening into a deflationary period.
Finally, Mike highlights how electrification, de-carbonization, and digitalization are all bullish for copper, but it's not as easy to increase copper supplies as it used to be. With copper reaching an all-time high in 2022, it's a clear indication of where we're headed in the future.
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Mon, 17 Apr 2023 - 1h 02min - 307 - The Secret to Beating 'Mr. Market': A Lesson in Value Investing
In this episode of the Stansberry Investor Hour, Tobias Carlisle discusses the current investment landscape and how many value investors have shifted their focus to growth stocks.
Prior to the interview, Dan discusses the concept of "Mr. Market" versus the "smart money". He cites a quote from Benjamin Graham's book Security Analysis, where he states that the stock market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. While this may be true for some companies, Dan suggests that there are many whose value doesn't change nearly as much as the stock market suggests, citing periods of sideways movement in the stock market as examples.
Then Dan and Tobias delve into the energy sector, noting the challenges of transitioning to EVs and solar. Tobias emphasizes the limitations of nuclear energy and the challenges of investing in the financial and banking sector. He prefers investing in businesses that are in a more broken-down state and cites coal companies as an example.
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Mon, 10 Apr 2023 - 57min - 306 - 'The Future Drives the Present' - Controlling Risk to Outperform Tomorrow's Markets
Dan and Corey delve into the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and its latest release from last week. They discuss the significance of this development and how it could affect the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates.
The two also point out that recent behavior in the bond market suggests that the end of the Federal Reserve's rate-hike plans may be near. While this move may contribute to future CPI and PCE numbers, Dan and Corey are not entirely convinced that it will solve the other issues in the economy.
Then, Dan introduces Michael Harris, a renowned quantitative trader who is credited with developing the first program to identify anomalies in price action and generate automatic code for popular platforms. Michael is also a prolific author, having written four books on price recognition and his market analysis blog, Price Action Lab.
Michael explains his approach to trading and notes that while there are no barriers to entry in trading, the biggest challenge is maintaining discipline and effectively managing risk.
Michael goes on to express his surprise at the inability of most active managers to outperform the market and makes the case that as long as the US dollar remains the world's reserve currency, the US will continue to dominate in the technology sector.
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Mon, 03 Apr 2023 - 55min - 305 - Leveraging Opportunities in the Age of 24-Hour Financial News
Click here to sign up for Marc's latest event: https://www.chaikinevent.com
We're excited to welcome back Marc Chaikin, founder of Chaikin Analytics. In this episode, Marc and Dan delve into the ongoing banking crisis and explore why Marc views this "bear" market as a buying opportunity.
As an experienced investor, Marc understands the challenges of staying informed in today's complex fiscal and monetary landscape:
"If you're an investor, you've got to be looking for opportunities and it's a really trite saying, but there's a bull market somewhere."
He notes that we're currently experiencing a rolling run-up, with stocks beginning to bottom out and go into uptrends. Marc argues that labeling the market as a bull or bear is less important than seeking out investment opportunities.
Finally, he highlights the risks of assuming the market will continue to behave a certain way, and why investors need to focus on finding opportunities regardless of market conditions.
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Mon, 27 Mar 2023 - 1h 02min - 304 - The Real Culprit Behind the Banking Crisis
This week, a Stansberry Investor Hour listener-favorite returns to the show... Kevin Duffy, editor of The Coffee Can Portfolio newsletter and hedge-fund manager, is back. And on his mind is the spectacular, near-overnight collapse of banks. But the foundation of this month's banking fiasco was laid years ago.
He explains how it all started... how Silicon Valley banks had risky loan books balanced with less-risky U.S. Treasurys... how banks' assets tripled during the two years of pandemic-driven government stimulus... and how the bond bubble burst and set off a chain reaction.
Kevin also shares that the root of the problem comes from the U.S.'s fractional-reserve banking system and reliance on the Federal Reserve and leverage. A simple way to understand the problems with today's banks is to list the characteristics of an ideal hedge fund. When that list is inverted, it describes a modern-day fractional-reserve bank.
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Mon, 20 Mar 2023 - 1h 05min - 303 - 'Never Has the Fed Raised Rates Into a Recession'
Shockwaves from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank are rippling through markets – from stocks to oil and cryptocurrency. The Stansberry Investor Hour welcomes back legendary trader Todd "Bubba" Horwitz to warn about bank bailouts and his thoughts on "the absurdity" of the Federal Reserve.
Bubba tells Dan Ferris and Corey McLaughlin how he's trading soft commodities and mentions how it could be daunting for most investors. But for the brave who buy these assets at good prices, they're in for a reward:
"I think we're due for a big market across the board pretty much in all commodities, especially the consumable-goods commodities. Gold and silver, I think they're going to go higher but they're not consumable – they're going to be needed for money pretty soon."
Bubba also explains why the "Fed pivot" narrative is a myth... why the 10-year Treasury yield could run up to 6%... and why you should sometimes take a break from financial media, leaving listeners with his final words: "Don't let the day-to-day news get to you."
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Mon, 13 Mar 2023 - 56min - 302 - Our 300th Episode Mailbag Special, Plus the 'Godfather of Fundamental Indexing' Rob Arnott
This week, you'll get a glimpse of what goes on in the mind of a true innovator in financial strategy. Hailed by Dan as the "godfather of fundamental indexing," Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, returns for another provocative interview.
As promised, Dan and his co-host Corey kick things off with a mailbag special to celebrate Stansberry Investor Hour's 300th episode. Thanks to listeners like you, we've collected quite a few e-mails. So today, the duo will tackle a couple of the burning questions you've sent us.
Another milestone in today's episode comes in the form of Research Affiliates' proprietary RAFI Fundamental Index ("RAFI") strategy, which is nearing its 20th anniversary. Rob shares some history about his pioneering work that's used by industry heavyweights like Charles Schwab and PIMCO.
Rob also warns against following the herd by explaining what happens when you mix availability bias and a bubble. And, with the help of monkeys, he shares how inherently flawed the traditional idea of weighting only by market cap can be... In a nod to economist Burton Malkiel – who once wrote how a blindfolded monkey throwing darts could outperform a fund manager – Rob and his colleagues simulated the monkey for one of their research papers...
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Mon, 06 Mar 2023 - 1h 11min - 301 - 'You Need Grit to Quit' – Knowing When to Walk Away With Annie Duke
We're eager to have former professional poker player, public speaker, and bestselling author Annie Duke on this week's episode to discuss her latest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, teaches you how to be a smart quitter.
"Quitters never win, winners never quit." That's not true. Winners actually quit a lot. And it's in fact how they win. When you look at the best investors, they are so good at getting off the positions that aren't so worthwhile that they can then reinvest that capital into things that are worthwhile..."
Annie also discusses the psychology behind other common pitfalls for retail investors, like loss aversion, focusing on portfolio outliers, relying on intuition, and more. Today's episode is one you won't want to miss.
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00:00 Inflation status quo 5:08 Recession prospect 11:26 Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away 19:59 Winners and losers in stock picking 27:08 How does intuition play out in investing? 32:10 Checklist manifesto in investing 38:21 "Stick to the plan" 47:42 Psychological aspect of investing 51:00 Annie’s investment tips
Mon, 27 Feb 2023 - 1h 01min - 300 - Your Portfolio's Best Defense for an Uncertain 2023
Stansberry Venture Technology editor Dave Lashmet returns to the show. He's our go-to for anything and everything related to emerging technologies.
Whether it's the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war... more nuclear threats from North Korea... or the Chinese spy balloon fiasco... geopolitics has already become 2023's overarching theme. It's also why Dave is bullish on one corner of the market in particular...
"The simple thesis is that we don't know what 2023 will be like for investors – if it'll be a bear, a bull, or a sideways market. But what we do know is that the best way to play defense in 2023 is going to be to buy defense stocks."
Dave also shares one company's stock that is poised to soar thanks to its groundbreaking new stealth technology. And just like other defense stocks on Dave's radar, it has a "very, very, very long [tail]" and "monopolies [on technologies]." Plus, Dave also details exactly what he looks for when screening military tech stocks, along with his "secret decoder ring" for choosing pharmaceutical companies to invest in.
Tue, 21 Feb 2023 - 1h 10min - 299 - A Silver Exec's Top Advice on Precious Metals Investing
We're excited about this week's Stansberry Investor Hour show... Keith Neumeyer – the founder, president, and CEO of major Canadian mining company First Majestic Silver – shares what it takes to make a fortune in the industry.
As Keith explains, "The mining sector brings a huge amount of value to the human race" as many modern technologies rely on it, especially silver...
All the different technologies we started to adopt as a human race in the mid-'80s and beyond, I just put two and two together and I said, "Silver is the glue that holds everything together. Without silver, none of this is going to work."
Silver is crucial to modern society, and it can be highly rewarding... as long as you know what you're doing. Before signing off this week's podcast, Keith shares the top qualities novice investors should look for in a mining company. (Solid management is his top pick.) And he recommends not waiting too long to take profits or holding on for the elusive 10-bagger, saying...
These things will spike all of a sudden [...] The stock will go up 300%, 400%, 500%, which is fantastic. That's what the mining sector can do for you if your timing is right. But you have to be smart as an investor. If you're up 300%, you'd better be selling something. If you don't, you're an idiot. If you're up 500%, I would suggest you're out of the stock completely.
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Mon, 13 Feb 2023 - 1h 00min - 298 - The One Market Every Investor Should Add to Their Watchlist
The biggest growth story of 2023 has been three years in the making. And today's Stansberry Investor Hour guest is at the forefront of it all...
Commodity Supercycles editor Brian Tycangco is Stansberry Research's resident expert in the energy and natural resources space.
After being shuttered behind strict COVID-19 policies for the past three years, China is finally open for business with the global markets again. Its residents – with trillions of dollars socked away during those long years – are itching to travel and spend. And the country's high-value manufacturing sites are set to lead a global bull market in electric vehicles.
At the same time, Brian says we're seeing an increased U.S. manufacturing presence in labor markets like India, Indonesia, and Thailand – which means incredible investing opportunities across Southeast Asia.
Also on today's podcast, Brian urges investors to not be so easily scared off by sensational headlines from Western media... like the furor over Chinese President Xi Jinping's power move to extend his term of leadership or the concerns over the wealthiest citizens leaving the country – and taking their money with them.
Thanks to his residency in Asia (the Philippines, to be exact), Brian has gotten a firsthand look at the sentiment. He says, "Everything isn't as bad as it seems in China," and that most Chinese have a "back-to-business mentality."
Lastly, when it comes to adding this market to your portfolio, he says you still have to be practical...
You don't go all-in on China, but you don't also not have exposure to a place like this. There's always room for China in anyone's portfolio [...] It'd be crazy not to have exposure just because of geopolitics.
Mon, 06 Feb 2023 - 1h 10min - 297 - The 'Blind Spot' of All Asset Managers
This week, one of Dan's favorite guests returns for his fourth Stansberry Investor Hour appearance... Cullen Roche is the founder of portfolio-management firms Orcam Financial and Discipline Funds. He is also the author of two of the most widely circulated research papers in finance and a highly rated book named after his popular financial blog, Pragmatic Capitalism.
But first, Dan and Corey examine the biggest news events of the past week. And some have gotten a little too close for comfort to the extreme scenarios in the "Top 10 Potential Surprises for 2023" episode.
As for our guest's economic outlook, Cullen discusses why disinflation could be this year's theme... why it's too early to be picking bottoms in the "huge, slow-moving beast" of housing... and why he thinks the Federal Reserve is likely to hike rates a bit more before adopting a wait-and-see approach...
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Mon, 30 Jan 2023 - 1h 04min - 296 - Having the Tenacity as an Investor... No Matter the Climate
This week, we're thrilled to welcome a brand-new guest to the Stansberry Investor Hour... who happens to be the lead analyst for Stansberry Research's longest-running flagship publication: Alan Gula.
But first, Dan and his co-host Corey discuss the latest hot-button topics: Big Tech's sweeping wave of layoffs, why media coverage of the "debt-ceiling crisis" is just "pure noise," the "cat-and-mouse game" of the lag effects of Federal Reserve policy, and whether there could be an encore to last year's bond-market beatdown.
Speaking of distressed investments... today's guest had a front-row seat to the financial crisis, as he was working Barclays Investment Bank's distressed-debt desk when Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. Alan worked at some of Wall Street's biggest firms before joining Stansberry Research.
"I think that any good recommendation has a good macro tailwind. And cycles are crucial from a macro standpoint," says Alan.
But finding a winner requires more than just the right macroeconomic setup... As Alan states, it's one that "marries both the macro and the bottom-up fundamentals research." He dives deep into his bottom-up research process. And he also shares his No. 1 tip for successful investing.
Mon, 23 Jan 2023 - 1h 08min - 295 - 'Path Matters More Than Prediction' – Assessing the Market Landscape for a 2023 'Melt Up'
For today's episode of Stansberry Investor Hour, we've managed to reel in one of Dan's favorite Twitter personalities: Michael Gayed.
Michael is the brains behind The Lead-Lag Report, a long-term investment strategy newsletter.
According to Michael, "Path matters more than prediction, "... especially in the credit event and the market rally he sees possible in 2023. He relies on multiple indicators that "get ahead of highly volatile regime shifts in equities," and "when they [the indicators] all give you the same message, that's your tell."
Michael also breaks down the lumber-to-gold indicator for market moves... the fallacies in market timing and adapting to the market... the meaning behind his Twitter profile picture... and more.
Plus, you'll also hear Dan and Corey discuss how stock bulls pinning their hopes on a Fed pivot could be in for a disappointment and the latest in shenanigans from the duo's favorite dethroned crypto king.
Tue, 17 Jan 2023 - 1h 04min - 294 - How to Make Volatility Work for You in 2023
We're back to our regular Stansberry Investor Hour programming this week. And to kick off a new year of the show, we welcome Greg Diamond, editor of Ten Stock Trader.
A chartered market technician ("CMT") and Stansberry's resident expert in technical analysis, Greg has almost 20 years of experience in portfolio management and trading across every asset class you can think of. That's why he's the perfect fit for Ten Stock Trader – Stansberry's unique daily trading service in which Greg has nailed down multiple double- and triple-digit winners.
According to Greg, "2023 is going to be marked with incredible trading opportunities." He explains that one of the tools for navigating market volatility this year is being able to identify certain trends, and he also explains how technical analysis can help you do that. His strategy might be intimidating for most, but Greg encourages folks to keep an open mind and step out of the box...
This is a can't-miss episode. Check it out now.
Mon, 09 Jan 2023 - 1h 00min - 293 - Top 10 Potential Surprises for 2023
Today was the first trading day of the new year. So for this week's Stansberry Investor Hour episode, we thought it'd only be fitting to kick off 2023 with our fourth annual "Top 10 Potential Surprises" for investors.
Dan Ferris teams up with co-host Corey McLaughlin to bring you this year's list. Keeping with Dan's favorite adage of "Prepare, don't predict," these 10 surprises aren't predictions... They're possible events investors are unprepared for, based on current market conditions.
We won't spoil the surprises. But just to give you an idea, you'll hear about...
A bullish trend in two assets (including one Dan has never been a fan of) A commonly held view of today's bear market (and why it's a mistake) A specter of the 2021 stock market's most infamous names (and what it portends) A "blistering" market event (one that's guaranteed to "shock the hell out of everyone") A repeat of history (and an event Dan says is his "pet surprise" that he'll always have on his Top 10 list)Dan and Corey also ask each other the show-standard "Final Question," as today's special episode doesn't feature a guest (we'll return to our normal format next week). Plus, Dan reveals his four tips on how to best prepare for all that 2023 could unleash.
Wed, 04 Jan 2023 - 1h 06min - 292 - Our Mailbag Is Full, Thanks to You
This week's Stansberry Investor Hour episode features multiple guests...
And they're you, our listeners.
You see, we've been reading every e-mail and listening to every voicemail as they've come in. So for today's episode, we're opening the floodgates and sharing as many of your mailbag missives as we can cram into the show's hour.
We'll share your feedback – both good and bad – and questions that run the gamut from...
What is the most interesting buy-and-hold opportunity considering the crisis in Europe?
To...
Is Dan about to pass away?
Dan and his co-host Corey McLaughlin tackle all your comments and questions. You'll also hear...
Dan and Corey's picks for "the most interesting buy-and-hold opportunity" The duo's take on Big Tech's layoffs What made one listener say, "It's the equivalent of Dan getting married and not telling us who this new person is" Why Stansberry Research values conflicting opinions The next "sleeper" crisis that's lurking for the U.S., according to Corey Dan's vote for the "dumbest thing in the world" Market bearishness and what Dan thinks is "baloney" about itGet ready for today's special episode... As Dan says, "There's a lot to unpack."
Mon, 26 Dec 2022 - 1h 05min - 291 - 'You Need to Do the Arithmetic' with Rick Rule
This week's Stansberry Investor Hour guest is hailed by Dan Ferris as "the blueprint for a great guest." And co-host Corey McLaughlin says, "I get excited when I know he's going to be talking somewhere." Rick Rule is back for his fourth appearance.
For our newer listeners, Rick is one of the most accomplished natural resource investors on the planet. He began his financial career in the securities business in 1974 and has been principally involved with natural resource securities ever since. And over his long career, Rick has originated and participated in hundreds of debt and equity transactions with private, pre-public, and public companies. Even after a decade of serving as Sprott U.S. president and CEO, he's still spending his retirement years in the markets as founder and CEO of Rule Investment Media.
After opening with "the most entertaining [news] item" on their minds this week and an in-depth discussion on natural resource stocks, last week's latest Consumer Price Index report, Big Tech layoffs, and unemployment numbers... the duo chat with Rick about how to navigate the market these days.
The get-rich-quick fads – like meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, Cathie Wood's ARK universe, and SPACs (that's "special purpose acquisition companies") – are all "over and done," according to Dan. And success now requires some elbow grease...
All that easy money that was a narrative plus a chart that goes up to the right... it's all done. Now, you have to be a bargain hunter. You need to do the bottom-up work. As Rick Rule likes to say, "You need to do the arithmetic." And for people who do the arithmetic and do the work, this is their time to shine.
Rick touches on the fundamental analysis behind it all, untangling the complex interplay between the oil industry and politics for listeners. And Dan, who has been itching to know what Rick has to say about investing in natural resources, gets his answer...
There's a very good intermediate-term play in the oil and gas sector. Ironically, that's almost guaranteed by our government. [... ]
If you are willing to subject yourself to government stupidity both in the United States and Canada – which is to say, if you are willing to subject your purse to the twin threats of Biden and Trudeau – then the opportunities become truly staggering.
While Rick doesn't shy away from natural resource investments that carry "complex political risk" and require some arithmetic legwork, he understands listeners might hesitate to do the same. If you're eyeing oil and gas stocks, he suggests Big Oil could hold the key for some great intermediate-term returns.
So, whether it's hunting for the latest investment opportunities in uranium, natural gas, or precious metals... or poking fun at a few world leaders... Rick covers it all in this week's episode.
Mon, 19 Dec 2022 - 1h 08min - 290 - It's Destiny... and Doom
If anyone can make Dan exclaim, "If you don't get the hell away from your microphone, I'm going to keep you here all day," it's today's Stansberry Investor Hour guest: geopolitical strategist and New York Times bestselling author Peter Zeihan.
But first, Dan and his co-host Corey McLaughlin kick off the show by dissecting the conflicting – and confusing – news headlines on the direction of stocks and housing into 2023. The duo also evaluates ARK Investment Management founder Cathie Wood's latest Twitter ramblings (and why she sounds like a certain founder of a certain defunct cryptocurrency exchange).
Circling back to today's guest, Peter is also the founder of his own firm, Zeihan on Geopolitics, where he provides his expert analysis to clients that include Fortune 500 companies, trade associations, policymakers, and government agencies of all levels. His first three books – The Absent Superpower, The Accidental Superpower, and Disunited Nations – have been recommended by U.S. Senator Mitt Romney, political scientist Ian Bremmer, and CNN anchor Fareed Zakaria. His fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization, was published in June 2022 and is a New York Times bestseller.
And in this week's episode, he and Dan start by diving into the topic of deglobalization. Peter says the pace of deglobalization has accelerated since the start of the current decade – fueled by declining birth rates and an aging population. Additional kindling has come in the form of the COVID-19 pandemic, Chinese President Xi Jinping's narcissistic "cult of personality," and the Russia-Ukraine war. Global economies are in for some grim times... And as Peter puts it, "We are looking at the end of the world that we understand – probably in the next 36 months."
Mon, 12 Dec 2022 - 1h 01min
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